Tearsheet

Axon Enterprise (AXON)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $550.16 | Market Cap: $43.1 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense

Axon Enterprise (AXON)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $550.16
Market Cap: $43.1 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Aerospace & Defense

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -28 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.1%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 22x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 237x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 230x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 219x
2  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.7%
3  Key risks
AXON key risks include [1] antitrust challenges targeting its integrated hardware and software business model and [2] intensifying competition from large rivals and emerging alternative technologies.
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -28 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.1%
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 22x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 237x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 230x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 219x
4 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.7%
5 Key risks
AXON key risks include [1] antitrust challenges targeting its integrated hardware and software business model and [2] intensifying competition from large rivals and emerging alternative technologies.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AXON Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Axon Enterprise (AXON) stock experienced a significant decline in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025: 1. Axon's Q3 2025 adjusted earnings missed analyst expectations. Despite achieving a 31% increase in revenue for the third quarter of 2025, Axon reported adjusted earnings of $1.17 per share, which fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.63. This miss on profit targets led to a substantial drop in the stock price.

2. Increased operating costs and expenses pressured the company's bottom line. Axon faced escalating costs and expenses throughout 2025. The company's cost of sales increased significantly across the first, second, and third quarters of 2025, with selling, general, and administrative expenses also surging during these periods. These rising operational costs contributed to the profit shortfall despite strong revenue growth.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AXON Return67%28%6%56%130%-7%657%
Peers Return-32%37%81%-10%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AXON Win Rate75%50%42%67%75%50% 
Peers Win Rate60%38%57%60%42% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AXON Max Drawdown-28%-5%-46%-0%-5%-16% 
Peers Max Drawdown-48%-26%-18%-29% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MSI, TYL, CDRE, BYRN, WRAP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAXONS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-58.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven141.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven294 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-40.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven69.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven75 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-46.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven88.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven337 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-85.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven601.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1918 days1480 days

Compare to FLY, ATRO, APEX, BETA, DFSC


In The Past

Axon Enterprise's stock fell -58.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/11/2021. A -58.5% loss requires a 141.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Axon Enterprise (AXON)

Better Bets than Axon Enterprise (AXON)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AXON. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Axon Enterprise

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AXONMSITYLCDREBYRNWRAPMedian
NameAxon Ent.Motorola.Tyler Te.Cadre Byrna Te.Wrap Tec. 
Mkt Price550.00374.49451.2640.4917.472.20207.49
Mkt Cap43.162.519.51.60.40.110.6
Rev LTM2,55811,0942,29861911141,459
Op Inc LTM-282,7853548512-1448
FCF LTM1452,38460061-11-9103
FCF 3Y Avg1662,04746749-2-13108
CFO LTM2442,61263466-4-9155
CFO 3Y Avg2412,293512551-12148

Growth & Margins

AXONMSITYLCDREBYRNWRAPMedian
NameAxon Ent.Motorola.Tyler Te.Cadre Byrna Te.Wrap Tec. 
Rev Chg LTM32.0%6.4%10.6%19.9%51.0%-2.3%15.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg33.7%9.5%7.9%12.4%40.4%-8.0%10.9%
Rev Chg Q30.6%5.2%9.7%42.5%35.1%151.4%32.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM7.0%1.3%2.3%8.1%7.1%27.8%7.0%
Op Mgn LTM-1.1%25.1%15.4%13.7%10.8%-342.9%12.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg4.8%23.8%13.2%12.2%-1.4%-310.0%8.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.0%0.1%0.3%1.5%1.2%121.9%0.8%
CFO/Rev LTM9.5%23.5%27.6%10.7%-3.8%-213.6%10.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg12.4%21.9%24.1%10.2%0.6%-215.7%11.3%
FCF/Rev LTM5.7%21.5%26.1%9.9%-10.0%-220.4%7.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg8.7%19.6%21.9%9.1%-3.4%-224.9%8.9%

Valuation

AXONMSITYLCDREBYRNWRAPMedian
NameAxon Ent.Motorola.Tyler Te.Cadre Byrna Te.Wrap Tec. 
Mkt Cap43.162.519.51.60.40.110.6
P/S22.06.99.82.44.526.88.3
P/EBIT237.425.558.318.942.0-42.0
P/E218.936.071.632.731.4-7.934.4
P/CFO230.429.235.622.4-118.5-12.625.8
Total Yield0.5%3.7%1.4%4.1%3.2%-12.6%2.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.9%0.0%1.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg0.6%3.1%2.2%3.9%-4.0%-2.2%
D/E0.00.10.00.20.0-0.0
Net D/E-0.00.1-0.00.1-0.0--0.0

Returns

AXONMSITYLCDREBYRNWRAPMedian
NameAxon Ent.Motorola.Tyler Te.Cadre Byrna Te.Wrap Tec. 
1M Rtn1.2%-0.5%-2.5%-3.8%3.1%0.2%-0.1%
3M Rtn-26.8%-21.4%-15.9%23.5%-14.8%2.8%-15.3%
6M Rtn-28.6%-7.0%-20.6%20.7%-43.6%43.8%-13.8%
12M Rtn-13.5%-18.0%-25.8%14.6%-36.3%32.5%-15.8%
3Y Rtn224.8%53.4%40.9%94.3%99.9%5.8%73.8%
1M Excs Rtn0.5%-1.3%-3.3%-4.5%2.3%-0.5%-0.9%
3M Excs Rtn-29.6%-22.2%-16.2%17.0%-18.4%1.0%-17.3%
6M Excs Rtn-41.0%-19.3%-33.0%8.3%-55.9%31.4%-26.2%
12M Excs Rtn-25.8%-30.5%-37.3%4.9%-40.3%16.8%-28.1%
3Y Excs Rtn157.8%-25.0%-29.7%21.7%27.2%-80.1%-1.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Software and Sensors947658426314249
TASER614532437367282
Total1,5611,190863681531


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,029,912
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520253.1%
Average Daily Volume775,802
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.62
Basic Shares Quantity78,416,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.6%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/4/2025-9.4%-19.0%-22.0%
8/4/202516.4%9.9%-2.6%
5/7/202514.1%21.1%31.6%
2/25/202515.3%6.4%12.6%
11/7/202428.7%29.0%37.1%
8/6/202418.4%25.1%20.3%
2/27/202413.8%15.9%16.1%
11/7/20236.1%2.4%8.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive181615
# Negative578
Median Positive13.4%10.4%13.2%
Median Negative-8.5%-9.4%-10.8%
Max Positive28.7%29.0%38.4%
Max Negative-15.1%-19.0%-22.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021