Axon Enterprise (AXON)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $544.86 | Market Cap: $42.7 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
Axon Enterprise (AXON)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $544.86Market Cap: $42.7 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AXON Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Axon Enterprise reported a significant miss on Q3 2025 earnings per share (EPS) on November 4, 2025. The company posted an EPS of $1.17, falling short of analyst expectations, leading to a negative surprise of 23.03% to 28.22%. This earnings miss, despite revenue exceeding forecasts, raised concerns about the company's profitability and management of costs, causing the stock to decline by 2.06% after hours following the announcement.
2. Multiple analyst downgrades and price target reductions occurred between September and November 2025. For example, Zacks Research downgraded Axon from "strong-buy" to "hold" on September 2, 2025. Subsequently, in early November, Piper Sandler decreased its price objective from $893.00 to $753.00, The Goldman Sachs Group cut its target from $940.00 to $800.00, and Barclays reduced its target from $861.00 to $702.00. These adjustments by research firms reflected growing concerns over Axon's valuation and profitability.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AXON Return | 67% | 28% | 6% | 56% | 130% | -10% | 634% |
| Peers Return | -13% | -2% | -3% | 14% | -2% | 47% | 36% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AXON Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 17% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 5% | 31% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AXON Max Drawdown | -28% | -5% | -46% | -0% | -5% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -5% | -7% | -0% | -2% | -0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FLY, ATRO, APEX, BETA, DFSC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AXON | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -58.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 141.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 294 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -40.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 75 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -46.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 88.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 337 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -85.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 601.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1918 days | 1480 days |
Compare to FLY, ATRO, APEX, BETA, DFSC
In The Past
Axon Enterprise's stock fell -58.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/11/2021. A -58.5% loss requires a 141.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AXON. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Axon Enterprise
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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