Axon Enterprise (AXON)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $550.16 | Market Cap: $43.1 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
Axon Enterprise (AXON)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $550.16Market Cap: $43.1 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -28 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.1% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 22x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 237x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 230x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 219x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.7% | |
| Key risksAXON key risks include [1] antitrust challenges targeting its integrated hardware and software business model and [2] intensifying competition from large rivals and emerging alternative technologies. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Artificial Intelligence, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -28 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.1% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 22x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 237x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 230x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 219x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.7% |
| Key risksAXON key risks include [1] antitrust challenges targeting its integrated hardware and software business model and [2] intensifying competition from large rivals and emerging alternative technologies. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AXON Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Axon Enterprise (AXON) stock experienced a significant decline in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Axon's Q3 2025 adjusted earnings missed analyst expectations.
Despite achieving a 31% increase in revenue for the third quarter of 2025, Axon reported adjusted earnings of $1.17 per share, which fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.63. This miss on profit targets led to a substantial drop in the stock price.
2. Increased operating costs and expenses pressured the company's bottom line.
Axon faced escalating costs and expenses throughout 2025. The company's cost of sales increased significantly across the first, second, and third quarters of 2025, with selling, general, and administrative expenses also surging during these periods. These rising operational costs contributed to the profit shortfall despite strong revenue growth.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AXON Return | 67% | 28% | 6% | 56% | 130% | -7% | 657% |
| Peers Return | � | � | -32% | 37% | 81% | -10% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AXON Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 60% | 38% | 57% | 60% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AXON Max Drawdown | -28% | -5% | -46% | -0% | -5% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -48% | -26% | -18% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MSI, TYL, CDRE, BYRN, WRAP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AXON | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -58.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 141.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 294 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -40.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 75 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -46.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 88.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 337 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -85.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 601.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1918 days | 1480 days |
Compare to FLY, ATRO, APEX, BETA, DFSC
In The Past
Axon Enterprise's stock fell -58.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/11/2021. A -58.5% loss requires a 141.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AXON. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Axon Enterprise
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 207.49 |
| Mkt Cap | 10.6 |
| Rev LTM | 1,459 |
| Op Inc LTM | 48 |
| FCF LTM | 103 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 108 |
| CFO LTM | 155 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 148 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 32.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 7.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 10.6 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| P/EBIT | 42.0 |
| P/E | 34.4 |
| P/CFO | 25.8 |
| Total Yield | 2.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.2% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -15.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -13.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -15.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 73.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -17.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -26.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -28.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -1.6% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | -9.4% | -19.0% | -22.0% |
| 8/4/2025 | 16.4% | 9.9% | -2.6% |
| 5/7/2025 | 14.1% | 21.1% | 31.6% |
| 2/25/2025 | 15.3% | 6.4% | 12.6% |
| 11/7/2024 | 28.7% | 29.0% | 37.1% |
| 8/6/2024 | 18.4% | 25.1% | 20.3% |
| 2/27/2024 | 13.8% | 15.9% | 16.1% |
| 11/7/2023 | 6.1% | 2.4% | 8.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 18 | 16 | 15 |
| # Negative | 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 13.4% | 10.4% | 13.2% |
| Median Negative | -8.5% | -9.4% | -10.8% |
| Max Positive | 28.7% | 29.0% | 38.4% |
| Max Negative | -15.1% | -19.0% | -22.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |