Surf Air Mobility (SRFM)
Market Price (10/10/2026): $0.939 | Market Cap: $92.4 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines
Surf Air Mobility (SRFM)
Market Price (10/10/2026): $0.939Market Cap: $92.4 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Airlines
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Advanced Air Mobility. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -87%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -176% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% | Penny stockMkt Price is 0.9 Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -75 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -67% Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 73% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -62% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -124% High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 106% Key risksSRFM key risks include [1] substantial going concern risk driven by severe financial distress and debt, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Advanced Air Mobility. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -87%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -176% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% |
| Penny stockMkt Price is 0.9 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -75 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -67% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 73% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -46%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -62% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -124% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 106% |
| Key risksSRFM key risks include [1] substantial going concern risk driven by severe financial distress and debt, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Surf Air Mobility (SRFM) stock has lost about 20% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Miss and Continued Profitability Concerns.
Surf Air Mobility reported a GAAP EPS of -$0.29 for fiscal Q2 2026, which ended June 30, 2026, significantly missing analyst expectations of -$0.17 by 70.59%. This earnings miss, coupled with the company reaffirming its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss guidance of between -$30 million and -$25 million, underscored ongoing challenges in achieving profitability.
2. Negative Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Reductions.
Following the Q2 2026 results, Canaccord Genuity, the only active analyst covering SRFM, cut its price target for the stock from $1.50 to $1.00 on August 17, 2026. This reduction, part of a series of downgrades, reflects persistent skepticism among analysts, who remain focused on near-term profitability and cash burn concerns despite the company's operational progress.
Show more
Surf Air Mobility (SRFM) stock has lost about 20% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Miss and Continued Profitability Concerns.
Surf Air Mobility reported a GAAP EPS of -$0.29 for fiscal Q2 2026, which ended June 30, 2026, significantly missing analyst expectations of -$0.17 by 70.59%. This earnings miss, coupled with the company reaffirming its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss guidance of between -$30 million and -$25 million, underscored ongoing challenges in achieving profitability.
2. Negative Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Reductions.
Following the Q2 2026 results, Canaccord Genuity, the only active analyst covering SRFM, cut its price target for the stock from $1.50 to $1.00 on August 17, 2026. This reduction, part of a series of downgrades, reflects persistent skepticism among analysts, who remain focused on near-term profitability and cash burn concerns despite the company's operational progress.
3. NYSE Minimum Price Compliance Notice.
In July 2026, Surf Air Mobility received a notice from the NYSE regarding non-compliance with its minimum share price requirements. This situation introduced uncertainty for investors, signaling a concern about the company's valuation and market standing, although the company stated its intent to resolve the issue organically.
4. Broader Small-Cap Market Underperformance.
The period since fiscal Q2 2026 saw a general downturn in the small-cap market, significantly impacting companies like Surf Air Mobility. In fiscal Q3 2026 (July 1 – September 30, 2026), the Russell 2000 Growth Index declined by 9.4%, with overall small-cap categories experiencing losses of 5% to 10%. This underperformance was largely driven by surging interest rates, which disproportionately affect rate-sensitive and speculative small-cap growth stocks.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -18.5% change in SRFM stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -21.9% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.16 | 0.95 | -18.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 109 | 111 | 1.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.8 | 0.8 | 2.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 77 | 98 | -21.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -18.5% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SRFM | -18.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.3% | 27.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | -8.6% | 28.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -17.8% change in SRFM stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -25.7% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.15 | 0.95 | -17.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 107 | 111 | 3.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.8 | 0.8 | 6.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 73 | 98 | -25.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -17.8% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SRFM | -17.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.0% | 38.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 4.9% | 32.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -78.0% change in SRFM stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -78.8% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.29 | 0.95 | -78.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 107 | 111 | 3.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 21 | 98 | -78.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -78.0% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SRFM | -78.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.8% | 40.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 10.7% | 38.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -91.7% change in SRFM stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -89.9% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.41 | 0.95 | -91.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 23 | 111 | 388.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 5.0 | 0.8 | -83.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 10 | 98 | -89.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -91.7% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SRFM | -91.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 88.4% | 23.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 73.6% | 23.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SRFM Return | - | - | -51% | -50% | -64% | -52% | -96% |
| Peers Return | -27% | -51% | 86% | 16% | 2% | -47% | -58% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SRFM Win Rate | - | - | 33% | 42% | 25% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 37% | 37% | 63% | 48% | 48% | 36% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SRFM Max Drawdown | - | - | - | -91% | -80% | -85% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -58% | -55% | -52% | -53% | -53% | -63% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: JOBY, ACHR, FLYX, UP, SKYW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/9/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SRFM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -56.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 128.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -21.0% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.7% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 18 days |
In The Past
Surf Air Mobility's stock fell -56.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 128.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | SRFM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -56.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 128.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -21.0% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.7% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 18 days |
In The Past
Surf Air Mobility's stock fell -56.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 128.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Surf Air Mobility (SRFM)
Surf Air Mobility (SRFM) is a regional air mobility company dedicated to creating a sustainable air travel ecosystem. The company operates a comprehensive regional airline network through its Surf Air and Southern Airlines brands, offering both "shared private" and traditional commuter flight services across numerous U.S. cities, including Essential Air Service (EAS) routes for smaller communities. Concurrent with its flight operations, Surf Air Mobility is actively developing and integrating hybrid-electric and fully-electric powertrain technology.
Surf Air's platform connects underutilized regional airports, providing a high-frequency, "shared private" customer experience, while Southern Airlines operates as one of the largest commuter airlines and passenger operators of Cessna Caravans in the United States. Together, their combined network serves a substantial volume of passengers across a wide geographical area, utilizing small turboprop aircraft. The company's goal is to sustainably connect communities and significantly reduce the cost and environmental impact of regional flying.
A key strategic initiative for Surf Air Mobility is the electrification of its fleet, specifically targeting the Cessna Grand Caravan EX with hybrid-electric and fully-electric variants. The company aims for FAA approval of these modifications by the end of 2025, followed by commercialization. SRFM has established critical partnerships to realize this vision, including exclusive agreements with Textron Aviation for the supply of these powertrains, AeroTEC for certification development, and magniX for advanced electric motors. These collaborations position Surf Air Mobility at the forefront of transforming regional air travel with green technology.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Analogy 1: Imagine a regional airline, similar to a smaller **SkyWest Airlines**, that is also building electric powertrains to retrofit existing turboprop aircraft, much like **Rivian** develops electric vehicles for consumer and commercial fleets.
Analogy 2: It's like if **Southwest Airlines** (known for its point-to-point regional routes) decided to become the **Tesla** of electric aircraft engines, developing the technology themselves to electrify their own fleet and the broader regional aviation industry.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Regional Air Travel Services: Provides scheduled routes and on-demand charter flights, connecting communities via a shared private customer experience using turboprop aircraft.
- Electric Powertrain Development & Supply: Develops, certifies, and intends to exclusively supply hybrid-electric and fully-electric propulsion systems for existing aircraft fleets, starting with the Cessna Grand Caravan EX.
- Aircraft Electrification Financing & Services: Creates financing and service infrastructure to support the transition and adoption of green flying technologies across the industry.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Surf Air Mobility (SRFM) serves a diverse set of major customers, encompassing both individual travelers and institutional clients. Based on the provided description, its major customers include:
-
Individuals (Passengers): Surf Air Mobility, through its Surf Air and Southern operations, primarily serves individuals seeking regional air travel. These customers can be categorized as:
- Travelers seeking a "shared private" customer experience: These passengers use Surf Air's platform for premium regional air travel, often utilizing underutilized regional airports and private terminals.
- Commuter and regional travelers seeking high-frequency "commercial-like" air service: Southern Airlines serves a broad base of passengers across numerous U.S. cities, operating scheduled commuter flights.
- U.S. Federal Government: Southern Airlines holds multi-year contracts with the U.S. federal government to operate Essential Air Service (“EAS”) routes, ensuring air service to small communities.
- Textron Aviation Inc. (TAI): For its future electrification technology, Surf Air Mobility intends to be the exclusive supplier of hybrid-electric and battery electric propulsion systems for the Cessna Grand Caravan EX to Textron Aviation Inc. Textron Aviation is a subsidiary of Textron Inc. (symbol: TXT).
AI Analysis | Feedback
- AeroTEC
- Jetstream Aviation Capital
- magniX
- Palantir Technologies (PLTR)
- Signature Flight Support
- SkyWest Airlines (SKYW)
- Textron Inc. (TXT)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Deanna White CEO & COO
Deanna White was appointed CEO and COO of Surf Air Mobility in December 2024, after serving as Interim CEO and COO since May 2024. She previously held the position of CFO for the company from May 2022 to December 2023. White brings extensive experience in aviation and technology, having managed finance, operations, engineering, and manufacturing for both public and growth-stage companies. Her prior roles include COO at Kitty Hawk, where she oversaw an R&D eVTOL aircraft program that was subsequently sold to Boeing and rebranded as Wisk Aero. She also served as CEO and CFO of Bombardier Flexjet, a global leader in private aviation, which was sold to Directional Aviation Capital.
Oliver Reeves Chief Financial Officer
Oliver Reeves joined Surf Air Mobility as Chief Financial Officer in January 2024. He has nearly two decades of experience in investment management, enterprise technology, and insurance. Most recently, Reeves served as Chief Strategy Officer of Xinuos, Inc. since 2019. Earlier in his career, he held various asset management positions, including Investment Analyst at Coliseum Capital Management, Vice President at Gerson Global Advisors, and Senior Vice President at Phoenix Star Capital.
Carl Albert Chairman
Carl Albert serves as the Chairman of Surf Air Mobility. He is known as the founder of Wings West Airlines and was formerly the owner of Fairchild Dornier.
Sudhin Shahani Co-Founder
Sudhin Shahani is a Co-Founder of Surf Air Mobility and served as the co-founder and CEO of Surf Air Global Limited from 2013 to July 2023. Prior to his work with Surf Air, Shahani was an Entrepreneur in Residence at Anthem Ventures, an early-stage venture capital firm. In this role, he collaborated with various portfolio companies, led investments, and was a board member for Madefire (July 2013 to December 2018) and Panna (March 2012 to April 2019), both of which were eventually sold to Discovery Networks. He also co-founded Musicane, a digital music and social shopping network, from 2004 to 2009.
Liam Fayed Co-Founder, Chief Brand & Experience Officer
Liam Fayed is a Co-Founder and the Chief Brand & Experience Officer of Surf Air Mobility. He is described as a serial entrepreneur and creative executive, overseeing brand, marketing, and platform while focusing on redesigning the customer experience. Fayed was previously the founder, creative director, and CEO of the menswear label BESPOKEN New York. He also holds a board position with the British clothier, Turnbull & Asser.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Key Risks to Surf Air Mobility (SRFM)
- Reliance on Uncertified Technology and Certification Timeline: Surf Air Mobility's core business strategy is predicated on the successful development and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification of its hybrid-electric and fully-electric powertrain technology for the Cessna Grand Caravan EX aircraft. The company plans for FAA approval of these Supplemental Type Certificates (STCs) by the end of 2025, followed by commercialization. Any significant delays in development, unforeseen technical challenges, or the inability to obtain FAA certification could severely impede its ability to electrify existing fleets and achieve its strategic objectives.
- Contingencies and Finalization of Key Strategic Partnerships: The execution of Surf Air Mobility's aircraft electrification plans is highly dependent on critical partnerships that are subject to various conditions. For example, the effectiveness of its exclusive supplier agreement with Textron Aviation Inc. (TAI) for hybrid-electric and battery electric propulsion systems for the Cessna Grand Caravan EX is contingent upon Surf Air Mobility's shares being publicly traded on a U.S. national securities exchange. Furthermore, its agreements with AeroTEC, its electrification and certification partner, and magniX, a developer of electric motors, require the completion of conceptual design review and the execution of definitive agreements for the remaining development steps for the STC. Failure to meet these contingencies or finalize these definitive agreements could disrupt its technology development and commercialization timelines and impact its competitive advantages.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The rapid development and certification of alternative zero-emission propulsion technologies for regional aircraft, such as hydrogen-electric systems, or the accelerated commercialization of entirely new, purpose-built electric regional aircraft designs (rather than retrofits), which could offer superior performance, efficiency, or economics compared to Surf Air Mobility's strategy of electrifying existing turboprop fleets.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Surf Air Mobility (SRFM)
- Commercialization and Exclusive Supply of Hybrid-Electric and Fully-Electric Powertrain Technology: Surf Air Mobility plans for FAA approval of its hybrid-electric and fully-electric Cessna Grand Caravan EX Supplemental Type Certificates (STCs) by the end of 2025, followed by the commercialization of this technology. This initiative is a significant revenue driver, especially given the agreement to be the exclusive supplier of these propulsion systems to Textron Aviation Inc.
- Expansion of Regional Air Mobility Network and Increased Flight Operations: The acquisition of Southern Airlines creates an expanded, nationwide regional air mobility platform. This combined network will drive revenue through increased scheduled routes, on-demand charter flights, higher passenger volumes, and a greater number of departures across a broader geographical service area. The company has secured financing to fund the planned growth of its turboprop aircraft fleet, supporting this expansion.
- Growth in Passenger Volume and Route Frequency: Surf Air Mobility is focused on expanding regional air travel by connecting underutilized regional airports and private terminals. By offering a "shared private" customer experience and high-frequency "commercial-like" air service, the company aims to attract a larger customer base and increase overall passenger traffic across its expanding network.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Inbound Investments
- Surf Air Mobility has entered into a Master Agreement with Jetstream Aviation Capital to finance up to $450 million to fund the planned growth of its fleet of turboprop aircraft.
Capital Expenditures
- The company plans to grow its fleet of turboprop aircraft, supported by up to $450 million in financing.
- A primary focus for capital expenditures is the development and certification of hybrid-electric and fully-electric powertrain technology to upgrade existing fleets, specifically starting with the Cessna Grand Caravan EX.
- Surf Air Mobility anticipates FAA approval for its hybrid-electric and fully-electric Cessna Grand Caravan EX Supplemental Type Certificates (STCs) by the end of 2025, followed by the commercialization of this technology.
Peer Outperformance in Passenger Airlines
null| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction & Engineering | 31 | 3.5% | 117.5% | 193.9% | FIX 2132% · STRL 2095% · CDNL 1525% |
| Marine Transportation | 5 | 101.3% | 65.7% | 162.0% | HOS 39216% · MATX 193% · KEX 162% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | -3.1% | 39.0% | 96.3% | CAT 347% · ALSN 232% · WAB 228% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 54 | -14.9% | 65.1% | 61.3% | ATI 1032% · FTAI 842% · HWM 622% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 72 | 12.5% | 42.0% | 46.4% | PSIX 1201% · CRS 1127% · EROC 587% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 22.7% | 56.3% | 43.9% | FSTR 124% · CSX 55% · RAIL 47% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 19 | 7.3% | 30.2% | 41.1% | DXPE 475% · AIT 264% · WCC 224% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 33.3% | 0.1% | 31.1% | XPO 286% · R 223% · CVLG 139% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 39 | -5.6% | 61.6% | 28.9% | POWL 2302% · BE 1365% · VRT 988% |
| Diversified Support Services | 32 | 6.6% | 29.1% | 28.0% | LIME 3223% · TH 366% · CXW 250% |
| Building Products | 33 | -14.6% | 0.3% | 15.8% | LMB 728% · GFF 332% · PPIH 263% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 8.9% | 3.4% | -4.4% | RCMT 567% · CSW 116% · DD 69% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 17 | 8.6% | -10.7% | -8.6% | BLBD 178% · DE 93% · GENC 62% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 30 | -36.9% | 14.0% | -9.1% | CECO 823% · ADUR 403% · NVRI 320% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | -3.6% | -27.0% | -11.3% | HURN 232% · CRAI 76% · GRNQ 22% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 9 | -42.7% | -3.4% | -17.5% | CIX 164% · MG 113% · BCO 72% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -25.5% | 45.1% | -19.3% | UBER 50% · CAR -19% · LYFT -70% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -29.5% | -11.4% | -23.5% | EXLS 46% · BR 7% · G -23% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 9 | 25.1% | 17.4% | -26.0% | PBI 181% · TILE 125% · HNI 47% |
| Passenger Airlines ← | 11 | 7.9% | 17.8% | -34.2% | LTM 3338% · UAL 119% · DAL 96% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -25.6% | -27.8% | -36.2% | FDX 80% · EXPD 79% · CHRW 77% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 22 | 7.9% | -21.1% | -42.3% | BBSI 64% · ADP 47% · KFY 4% |
| Airport Services | 3 | -77.1% | -79.3% | -70.7% | JOBY -40% · ASLE -71% · UP -100% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Surf Air Mobility Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| null | 10/17/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Surf Air Mobility Stock: The Upside Case | 11/17/2025 | |
| What’s Happening With Surf Air Mobility Stock? | 08/20/2025 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 4.40 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.0 |
| Rev LTM | 260 |
| Op Inc LTM | -150 |
| FCF LTM | -257 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -217 |
| CFO LTM | -149 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -144 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -19.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -29.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -49.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -32.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -40.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -27.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -61.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -44.8% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $0.95 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/27/2023 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -82.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $0.78 | $1.34 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 21.3% | -29.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 117.7% | 106.6% |
| Downside Capture | 283.62 | 499.53 |
| Upside Capture | 249.03 | 214.77 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 27.8% | 40.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.68 | 2.88 | 3.36 | 3.64 | 3.42 | 2.24 |
| Up Beta | -3.63 | 0.96 | 2.85 | 4.34 | 3.15 | 1.59 |
| Down Beta | 8.03 | 1.78 | 4.09 | 1.26 | 2.55 | 2.03 |
| Up Capture | 543% | 582% | 397% | 626% | 670% | 1168% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 19 | 28 | 54 | 105 | 321 |
| Down Capture | -445% | 103% | 283% | 296% | 191% | 113% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 65 | 136 | 405 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SRFM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SRFM | -82.8% | 106.4% | -1.17 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 9.8% | 17.4% | 0.37 | 38.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.7% | 13.0% | 0.91 | 40.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 3.3% | 29.5% | 0.11 | 27.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 44.8% | 20.9% | 1.67 | -8.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 13.8% | 0.09 | 8.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -33.8% | 44.2% | -0.81 | 28.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SRFM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SRFM | -50.0% | 147.5% | -0.08 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.9% | 17.6% | 0.56 | 22.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.9% | 17.1% | 0.62 | 22.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.5% | 18.9% | 0.79 | 7.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.0% | 19.6% | 0.39 | -0.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.3% | 18.8% | -0.04 | 13.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.2% | 52.0% | 0.39 | 11.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SRFM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SRFM | -29.3% | 147.5% | -0.08 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.2% | 20.0% | 0.58 | 22.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 22.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.8% | 16.4% | 0.59 | 7.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 18.1% | 0.37 | -0.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.5% | 20.7% | 0.18 | 13.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.3% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 11.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/30/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/10/2026 | -5.9% | -18.9% | -27.8% |
| 5/11/2026 | -7.4% | -14.8% | -19.3% |
| 3/12/2026 | -22.3% | -26.6% | -37.2% |
| 11/12/2025 | -8.5% | -24.5% | -34.0% |
| 8/12/2025 | 16.5% | 0.2% | -1.2% |
| 5/13/2025 | -7.7% | -9.4% | -22.3% |
| 3/18/2025 | 4.9% | 1.0% | -36.2% |
| 11/14/2024 | -4.7% | 45.9% | 100.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| # Negative | 10 | 9 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.9% | 2.2% | 81.4% |
| Median Negative | -9.8% | -22.4% | -34.0% |
| Max Positive | 16.5% | 45.9% | 100.6% |
| Max Negative | -22.3% | -42.8% | -46.6% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/10/2026 | -5.9% | -18.9% | -27.8% |
| 5/11/2026 | -7.4% | -14.8% | -19.3% |
| 3/12/2026 | -22.3% | -26.6% | -37.2% |
| 11/12/2025 | -8.5% | -24.5% | -34.0% |
| 8/12/2025 | 16.5% | 0.2% | -1.2% |
| 5/13/2025 | -7.7% | -9.4% | -22.3% |
| 3/18/2025 | 4.9% | 1.0% | -36.2% |
| 11/14/2024 | -4.7% | 45.9% | 100.6% |
| 8/14/2024 | -16.7% | -42.8% | -41.6% |
| 5/14/2024 | -13.6% | -22.4% | -46.4% |
| 3/28/2024 | -11.0% | 3.3% | -46.6% |
| 11/14/2023 | 3.2% | -42.3% | -20.2% |
| 8/16/2023 | -17.5% | -3.5% | 62.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| # Negative | 10 | 9 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.9% | 2.2% | 81.4% |
| Median Negative | -9.8% | -22.4% | -34.0% |
| Max Positive | 16.5% | 45.9% | 100.6% |
| Max Negative | -22.3% | -42.8% | -46.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/10/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/11/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/14/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/14/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/15/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/14/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/29/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 07/26/2023 | 424B4 |
| 06/30/2022 | 02/09/2023 | DRS/A |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/10/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/11/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/14/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/14/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/15/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/14/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/29/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 07/26/2023 | 424B4 |
| 06/30/2022 | 02/09/2023 | DRS/A |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/8/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/10/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | Reported | 35.50 Mil | 36.50 Mil | 37.50 Mil | ||||
| Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Loss | Reported | -7.00 Mil | -5.50 Mil | -4.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 128.00 Mil | 133.00 Mil | 138.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 133.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 20.0% | 25.0% | 30.0% | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Loss | Reported | -30.00 Mil | -27.50 Mil | -25.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: -27.50 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | Reported | 27.00 Mil | 28.50 Mil | 30.00 Mil | 14.0% | Higher New | Actual: 25.00 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | -10.50 Mil | -9.50 Mil | -8.50 Mil | -34.5% | Higher New | Actual: -14.50 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 128.00 Mil | 133.00 Mil | 138.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 133.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | -30.00 Mil | -27.50 Mil | -25.00 Mil | -38.9% | Raised | Guidance: -45.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | Reported | 24.00 Mil | 25.00 Mil | 26.00 Mil | -5.7% | Lower New | Guidance: 26.50 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Loss | Reported | -15.50 Mil | -14.50 Mil | -13.50 Mil | 100.0% | Lower New | Guidance: -7.25 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 128.00 Mil | 133.00 Mil | 138.00 Mil | 26.7% | Higher New | Guidance: 105.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 20.0% | 25.0% | 30.0% | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Loss | Reported | -50.00 Mil | -45.00 Mil | -40.00 Mil | ||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/12/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Revenue | Reported | 25.50 Mil | 26.50 Mil | 27.50 Mil | ||||
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Loss | Reported | -8.00 Mil | -7.25 Mil | -6.50 Mil | ||||
| 2025 Revenue | Reported | 105.00 Mil | Raised | Guidance: 100.00 Mil for 2025 | ||||
Insider Activity
Updated 10/2/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | White, Deanna Leigh | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 5082026 | 1.31 | 56,884 | 74,780 | 1,181,996 | Form |
| 2 | Reeves, Oliver | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5082026 | 1.31 | 76,569 | 100,642 | 618,841 | Form |
| 3 | White, Deanna Leigh | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 4172026 | 1.31 | 27,720 | 36,188 | 881,904 | Form |
| 4 | Reeves, Oliver | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 4172026 | 1.31 | 28,874 | 37,695 | 378,026 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | White, Deanna Leigh | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 5082026 | 1.31 | 56,884 | 74,780 | 1,181,996 | Form |
| 2 | Reeves, Oliver | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5082026 | 1.31 | 76,569 | 100,642 | 618,841 | Form |
| 3 | White, Deanna Leigh | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 4172026 | 1.31 | 27,720 | 36,188 | 881,904 | Form |
| 4 | Reeves, Oliver | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 4172026 | 1.31 | 28,874 | 37,695 | 378,026 | Form |
Surf Air Mobility — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Passenger Airlines Resources |
| FlightGlobal |
| Airline Weekly |
| Skift Airlines |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.