Surf Air Mobility (SRFM)
Market Price (4/12/2026): $1.17 | Market Cap: $85.5 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines
Surf Air Mobility (SRFM)
Market Price (4/12/2026): $1.17Market Cap: $85.5 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Airlines
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -54% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Advanced Air Mobility. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -112%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -161% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -77 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -72% Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 106% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.7% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -60%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -68% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -138% High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 150% Key risksSRFM key risks include [1] substantial going concern risk driven by severe financial distress and debt, Show more. |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -54% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Advanced Air Mobility. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -112%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -161% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -77 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -72% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 106% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.7% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -60%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -68% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -138% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 150% |
| Key risksSRFM key risks include [1] substantial going concern risk driven by severe financial distress and debt, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Surf Air Mobility (SRFM) stock has lost about 40% since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Surf Air Mobility reported a significant earnings per share (EPS) miss and widened net loss for Q4 2025. The company posted an EPS of -$0.41, missing analysts' expectations of -$0.33 by 24.24%. Concurrently, the net loss for Q4 2025 expanded to $36.9 million, a notable decline from a net income of $1.3 million in the prior year period, with the full-year 2025 net loss reaching $110.5 million.
2. The company provided guidance indicating continued and increased adjusted EBITDA losses for Q1 and the full year 2026. Management projected an adjusted EBITDA loss between $13.5 million and $15.5 million for Q1 2026, and a broader loss range of $40 million to $50 million for the full fiscal year 2026. This signals ongoing unprofitability as the company continues significant investments in strategic initiatives such as its SurfOS platform.
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1. Surf Air Mobility reported a significant earnings per share (EPS) miss and widened net loss for Q4 2025. The company posted an EPS of -$0.41, missing analysts' expectations of -$0.33 by 24.24%. Concurrently, the net loss for Q4 2025 expanded to $36.9 million, a notable decline from a net income of $1.3 million in the prior year period, with the full-year 2025 net loss reaching $110.5 million.
2. The company provided guidance indicating continued and increased adjusted EBITDA losses for Q1 and the full year 2026. Management projected an adjusted EBITDA loss between $13.5 million and $15.5 million for Q1 2026, and a broader loss range of $40 million to $50 million for the full fiscal year 2026. This signals ongoing unprofitability as the company continues significant investments in strategic initiatives such as its SurfOS platform.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -41.8% change in SRFM stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/11/2026 was primarily driven by a -41.9% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.94 | 1.13 | -41.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 108 | 107 | -1.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 42 | 73 | -41.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -41.8% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SRFM | -41.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 35.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 10.6% | 46.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -73.7% change in SRFM stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/11/2026 was primarily driven by a -71.4% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.29 | 1.13 | -73.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 107 | 107 | -0.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.8 | 0.8 | -7.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 21 | 73 | -71.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -73.7% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SRFM | -73.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 40.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 11.6% | 47.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -57.7% change in SRFM stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/11/2026 was primarily driven by a -78.2% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.67 | 1.13 | -57.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 119 | 107 | -10.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.4 | 0.8 | 117.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 16 | 73 | -78.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -57.7% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SRFM | -57.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 26.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 32.3% | 31.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SRFM | ||
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 19.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 76.8% | 20.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SRFM Return | - | - | -51% | -50% | -64% | -40% | -95% |
| Peers Return | -27% | -51% | 86% | 16% | 2% | -28% | -43% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 82% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SRFM Win Rate | - | - | 33% | 42% | 25% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 37% | 37% | 63% | 48% | 48% | 30% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SRFM Max Drawdown | - | - | -78% | -91% | -67% | -45% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -54% | -28% | -41% | -39% | -34% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: JOBY, ACHR, FLYX, UP, SKYW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/10/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
SRFM has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 273 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 232 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 312 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 172.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,463 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to JOBY, ACHR, FLYX, UP, SKYW
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -22.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2022. A -22.6% loss requires a 29.2% gain to breakeven.
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About Surf Air Mobility (SRFM)
Surf Air Mobility is building a regional air mobility ecosystem that will aim to sustainably connect the world’s communities. Leveraging the combined operations of Surf Air and Southern, we intend to accelerate the adoption of green flying by developing, together with our commercial partners, hybrid-electric and fully-electric powertrain technology to upgrade existing fleets, and by creating a financing and services infrastructure to enable this transition on an industry-wide level. We believe bringing electrified aircraft to market at scale will substantially reduce the cost and environmental impact of regional flying, and that such reductions are achievable by the end of the decade. Additionally, we believe operating as a publicly traded company and having efficient access to growth capital will allow us to accelerate the implementation of our strategic plan. Surf Air Inc. was incorporated under the laws of Delaware in 2011, and Surf Air Global Limited (formerly incorporated as Surf Airlines Inc.) was formed under the laws of the British Virgin Islands and became the parent company of the Surf Air group in 2016. Surf Air Mobility Inc. was incorporated in 2021. Surf Air is expanding the category of regional air travel, connecting underutilized regional airports and private terminals to create a “shared private” customer experience and a high frequency “commercial-like” air service, using small turboprop aircraft. Surf Air currently provides a regional air mobility platform with scheduled routes and on-demand charter flights operated by third parties that operate under Part 135 of Title 14 of the U.S. Code of Federal Regulations (“Part 135”) and intends to develop powertrain technology with its commercial partners to electrify existing fleets, which it believes will reduce operating costs and emissions, starting with a hybrid-electric and a fully-electric variant of the Cessna Grand Caravan EX, which is one of the most prolific family of aircraft in the single engine turboprop category with approximately 3,000 aircraft in use worldwide. Founded in 2013 as a Delaware corporation, as of March 31, 2023, Southern is the largest commuter airline in the United States and the largest passenger operator of Cessna Caravans in the United States by scheduled departures. As of March 31, 2023, Southern served 40 U.S. cities across six U.S. time zones and in the Mariana Islands. Southern ceased serving the Mariana Islands as of April 1, 2023. Southern has multi-year contracts with the U.S. federal government to operate Essential Air Service (“EAS”) routes, which ensures small communities in the United States can maintain a minimum level of scheduled air services. The Southern Acquisition will result in a combined regional airline network servicing U.S. cities across the Mid-Atlantic, Gulf South, Midwest, Rocky Mountains, West Coast, New England and Hawaii. Surf Air and Southern together served over 99,000 passengers across 44 cities with over 18,000 departures for the three months ended March 31, 2023. For the three months ended March 31, 2023, Surf Air generated $5.5 million in revenue and Southern generated $22.7 million in revenue, an increase of 14.3% and an increase of 35.6%, respectively, compared to the three months ended March 31, 2022. Surf Air and Southern together served over 450,000 passengers across 48 cities with over 75,000 departures in 2022. Surf Air and Southern together served over 330,000 passengers in 2021, and over 150,000 passengers in 2020. For the year ended December 31, 2022, Surf Air generated $20.3 million in revenue and Southern generated $80.7 million in revenue, compared to $11.8 million in revenue and $57.7 million in revenue, respectively, for the year ended December 31, 2021 and $7.5 million in revenue and $38.2 million in revenue, respectively, for the year ended December 31, 2020. We expect the combination of Surf Air and Southern will provide the basis for SAM’s expanded, nationwide regional air mobility platform. SAM intends to electrify its existing fleet utilizing hybrid-electric and fully-electric powertrain technology once it is fully designed and developed, and certified by the Federal Aviation Administration (“FAA”) as part of the issuance of the Supplemental Type Certificate (“STC”). We are planning for FAA approval of our hybrid-electric and fully-electric Cessna Grand Caravan EX STCs to occur by the end of 2025, followed by the commercialization of the technology. SAM has relationships with leading players across the value chain, which SAM believes provides significant competitive advantages as it pursues the scaling of its point-to-point regional air mobility ecosystem and the implementation of its aircraft electrification plans. SAM intends to be the exclusive supplier of hybrid-electric and battery electric propulsion systems for the Cessna Grand Caravan EX to Textron Aviation Inc. (“TAI”), one of the largest general aviation OEMs in the world by units sold. The effectiveness of SAM’s agreements with TAI are contingent upon SAM’s shares being publicly traded on a U.S. national securities exchange. SAM’s electrification and certification partner, AeroTEC, a leading aerospace engineering firm with experience in fully-electrified aircraft, has agreed to work exclusively with SAM to develop and obtain STCs for modified Cessna Caravans, and magniX, developer of one of the most powerful electric motors currently being certified, has agreed to exclusively sell certain electrified propulsion systems to SAM, subject to completion of conceptual design review and the execution of definitive agreements. Upon completion of conceptual design review SAM, AeroTEC and magniX have agreed to enter into further definitive agreements in relation to the remaining development steps for the STC. SAM and Jetstream Aviation Capital have entered into a Master Agreement to finance up to $450 million to fund the planned growth of SAM’s fleet of turboprop aircraft. In addition, Southern and SkyWest Airlines are partnered to provide a pilot hiring and training pathway, SAM has entered into a Memorandum of Understanding with Signature Flight Support for Fixed Base Operator (“FBO”) services and the support of SAM’s existing and future network and SAM has contracted with Palantir to leverage Palantir’s Foundry platform to support SAM’s planned growth across a range of business applications. Surf Air, Inc. was incorporated under the laws of Delaware in 2011, and Surf Air Global Ltd. was formed under the laws of the British Virgin Islands and became the parent company of the Surf Air group in 2016. SAM was incorporated under the laws of Delaware on January 5, 2021. SAM is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Surf Air formed for the purpose of holding all of the equity securities, assets, business and operations of Surf Air and Southern. The mailing address of SAM’s principal executive office is 12111 S. Crenshaw Boulevard, Hawthorne, California.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Analogy 1: Imagine a regional airline, similar to a smaller **SkyWest Airlines**, that is also building electric powertrains to retrofit existing turboprop aircraft, much like **Rivian** develops electric vehicles for consumer and commercial fleets.
Analogy 2: It's like if **Southwest Airlines** (known for its point-to-point regional routes) decided to become the **Tesla** of electric aircraft engines, developing the technology themselves to electrify their own fleet and the broader regional aviation industry.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- Regional Air Travel Services: Provides scheduled routes and on-demand charter flights, connecting communities via a shared private customer experience using turboprop aircraft.
- Electric Powertrain Development & Supply: Develops, certifies, and intends to exclusively supply hybrid-electric and fully-electric propulsion systems for existing aircraft fleets, starting with the Cessna Grand Caravan EX.
- Aircraft Electrification Financing & Services: Creates financing and service infrastructure to support the transition and adoption of green flying technologies across the industry.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Surf Air Mobility (SRFM) serves a diverse set of major customers, encompassing both individual travelers and institutional clients. Based on the provided description, its major customers include:
-
Individuals (Passengers): Surf Air Mobility, through its Surf Air and Southern operations, primarily serves individuals seeking regional air travel. These customers can be categorized as:
- Travelers seeking a "shared private" customer experience: These passengers use Surf Air's platform for premium regional air travel, often utilizing underutilized regional airports and private terminals.
- Commuter and regional travelers seeking high-frequency "commercial-like" air service: Southern Airlines serves a broad base of passengers across numerous U.S. cities, operating scheduled commuter flights.
- U.S. Federal Government: Southern Airlines holds multi-year contracts with the U.S. federal government to operate Essential Air Service (“EAS”) routes, ensuring air service to small communities.
- Textron Aviation Inc. (TAI): For its future electrification technology, Surf Air Mobility intends to be the exclusive supplier of hybrid-electric and battery electric propulsion systems for the Cessna Grand Caravan EX to Textron Aviation Inc. Textron Aviation is a subsidiary of Textron Inc. (symbol: TXT).
AI Analysis | Feedback
- AeroTEC
- Jetstream Aviation Capital
- magniX
- Palantir Technologies (PLTR)
- Signature Flight Support
- SkyWest Airlines (SKYW)
- Textron Inc. (TXT)
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Deanna White CEO & COO
Deanna White was appointed CEO and COO of Surf Air Mobility in December 2024, after serving as Interim CEO and COO since May 2024. She previously held the position of CFO for the company from May 2022 to December 2023. White brings extensive experience in aviation and technology, having managed finance, operations, engineering, and manufacturing for both public and growth-stage companies. Her prior roles include COO at Kitty Hawk, where she oversaw an R&D eVTOL aircraft program that was subsequently sold to Boeing and rebranded as Wisk Aero. She also served as CEO and CFO of Bombardier Flexjet, a global leader in private aviation, which was sold to Directional Aviation Capital.
Oliver Reeves Chief Financial Officer
Oliver Reeves joined Surf Air Mobility as Chief Financial Officer in January 2024. He has nearly two decades of experience in investment management, enterprise technology, and insurance. Most recently, Reeves served as Chief Strategy Officer of Xinuos, Inc. since 2019. Earlier in his career, he held various asset management positions, including Investment Analyst at Coliseum Capital Management, Vice President at Gerson Global Advisors, and Senior Vice President at Phoenix Star Capital.
Carl Albert Chairman
Carl Albert serves as the Chairman of Surf Air Mobility. He is known as the founder of Wings West Airlines and was formerly the owner of Fairchild Dornier.
Sudhin Shahani Co-Founder
Sudhin Shahani is a Co-Founder of Surf Air Mobility and served as the co-founder and CEO of Surf Air Global Limited from 2013 to July 2023. Prior to his work with Surf Air, Shahani was an Entrepreneur in Residence at Anthem Ventures, an early-stage venture capital firm. In this role, he collaborated with various portfolio companies, led investments, and was a board member for Madefire (July 2013 to December 2018) and Panna (March 2012 to April 2019), both of which were eventually sold to Discovery Networks. He also co-founded Musicane, a digital music and social shopping network, from 2004 to 2009.
Liam Fayed Co-Founder, Chief Brand & Experience Officer
Liam Fayed is a Co-Founder and the Chief Brand & Experience Officer of Surf Air Mobility. He is described as a serial entrepreneur and creative executive, overseeing brand, marketing, and platform while focusing on redesigning the customer experience. Fayed was previously the founder, creative director, and CEO of the menswear label BESPOKEN New York. He also holds a board position with the British clothier, Turnbull & Asser.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Key Risks to Surf Air Mobility (SRFM)
- Reliance on Uncertified Technology and Certification Timeline: Surf Air Mobility's core business strategy is predicated on the successful development and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification of its hybrid-electric and fully-electric powertrain technology for the Cessna Grand Caravan EX aircraft. The company plans for FAA approval of these Supplemental Type Certificates (STCs) by the end of 2025, followed by commercialization. Any significant delays in development, unforeseen technical challenges, or the inability to obtain FAA certification could severely impede its ability to electrify existing fleets and achieve its strategic objectives.
- Contingencies and Finalization of Key Strategic Partnerships: The execution of Surf Air Mobility's aircraft electrification plans is highly dependent on critical partnerships that are subject to various conditions. For example, the effectiveness of its exclusive supplier agreement with Textron Aviation Inc. (TAI) for hybrid-electric and battery electric propulsion systems for the Cessna Grand Caravan EX is contingent upon Surf Air Mobility's shares being publicly traded on a U.S. national securities exchange. Furthermore, its agreements with AeroTEC, its electrification and certification partner, and magniX, a developer of electric motors, require the completion of conceptual design review and the execution of definitive agreements for the remaining development steps for the STC. Failure to meet these contingencies or finalize these definitive agreements could disrupt its technology development and commercialization timelines and impact its competitive advantages.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The rapid development and certification of alternative zero-emission propulsion technologies for regional aircraft, such as hydrogen-electric systems, or the accelerated commercialization of entirely new, purpose-built electric regional aircraft designs (rather than retrofits), which could offer superior performance, efficiency, or economics compared to Surf Air Mobility's strategy of electrifying existing turboprop fleets.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Surf Air Mobility (SRFM)
- Commercialization and Exclusive Supply of Hybrid-Electric and Fully-Electric Powertrain Technology: Surf Air Mobility plans for FAA approval of its hybrid-electric and fully-electric Cessna Grand Caravan EX Supplemental Type Certificates (STCs) by the end of 2025, followed by the commercialization of this technology. This initiative is a significant revenue driver, especially given the agreement to be the exclusive supplier of these propulsion systems to Textron Aviation Inc.
- Expansion of Regional Air Mobility Network and Increased Flight Operations: The acquisition of Southern Airlines creates an expanded, nationwide regional air mobility platform. This combined network will drive revenue through increased scheduled routes, on-demand charter flights, higher passenger volumes, and a greater number of departures across a broader geographical service area. The company has secured financing to fund the planned growth of its turboprop aircraft fleet, supporting this expansion.
- Growth in Passenger Volume and Route Frequency: Surf Air Mobility is focused on expanding regional air travel by connecting underutilized regional airports and private terminals. By offering a "shared private" customer experience and high-frequency "commercial-like" air service, the company aims to attract a larger customer base and increase overall passenger traffic across its expanding network.
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Inbound Investments
- Surf Air Mobility has entered into a Master Agreement with Jetstream Aviation Capital to finance up to $450 million to fund the planned growth of its fleet of turboprop aircraft.
Capital Expenditures
- The company plans to grow its fleet of turboprop aircraft, supported by up to $450 million in financing.
- A primary focus for capital expenditures is the development and certification of hybrid-electric and fully-electric powertrain technology to upgrade existing fleets, specifically starting with the Cessna Grand Caravan EX.
- Surf Air Mobility anticipates FAA approval for its hybrid-electric and fully-electric Cessna Grand Caravan EX Supplemental Type Certificates (STCs) by the end of 2025, followed by the commercialization of this technology.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Surf Air Mobility Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| null | 10/17/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Surf Air Mobility Stock: The Upside Case | 11/17/2025 | |
| What’s Happening With Surf Air Mobility Stock? | 08/20/2025 |
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Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 3.84 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.0 |
| Rev LTM | 241 |
| Op Inc LTM | -169 |
| FCF LTM | -178 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -235 |
| CFO LTM | -115 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -182 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -35.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -31.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -22.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -28.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -38.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -40.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.0 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| P/EBIT | -1.6 |
| P/E | -2.4 |
| P/CFO | -1.7 |
| Total Yield | -22.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -26.7% |
| D/E | 0.9 |
| Net D/E | 0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -10.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -42.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -51.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -22.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 12.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -12.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -40.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -55.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -54.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -56.9% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $1.13 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/27/2023 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -87.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $1.70 | $3.25 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -33.3% | -65.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 84.3% | 149.8% |
| Downside Capture | 2.26 | 2.27 |
| Upside Capture | -117.34 | 233.74 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 34.7% | 23.8% |
SRFM Betas & Captures as of 3/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.90 | 2.94 | 3.05 | 3.09 | 2.09 | -0.46 |
| Up Beta | -1.38 | 4.73 | 3.20 | 0.87 | 1.95 | -0.12 |
| Down Beta | 2.47 | 2.53 | 3.31 | 3.09 | 1.71 | -0.30 |
| Up Capture | 149% | 153% | 211% | 222% | 214% | 254% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 17 | 26 | 51 | 103 | 289 |
| Down Capture | 420% | 317% | 274% | 266% | 168% | 113% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 141 | 362 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SRFM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SRFM | -60.6% | 145.8% | -0.05 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 49.1% | 17.9% | 2.08 | 33.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 31.2% | 17.3% | 1.47 | 28.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 60.1% | 27.8% | 1.69 | 5.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 29.8% | 16.6% | 1.58 | 0.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 21.3% | 15.2% | 1.07 | 19.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -4.3% | 43.7% | 0.02 | 27.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SRFM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SRFM | -48.2% | 152.8% | -0.12 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.1% | 17.3% | 0.59 | 20.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.1% | 17.0% | 0.50 | 20.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.1% | 17.8% | 1.02 | 3.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.8% | 18.8% | 0.52 | 4.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.7% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 14.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.3% | 56.5% | 0.30 | 11.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SRFM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SRFM | -28.0% | 152.8% | -0.12 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.8% | 19.9% | 0.61 | 20.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.8% | 17.9% | 0.66 | 20.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.2% | 15.9% | 0.74 | 3.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.41 | 4.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 14.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.6% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 11.7% |
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Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/12/2026 | -22.3% | -26.6% | |
| 11/12/2025 | -8.5% | -24.5% | -34.0% |
| 8/12/2025 | 16.5% | 0.2% | -1.2% |
| 3/18/2025 | 4.9% | 1.0% | -36.2% |
| 11/14/2024 | -4.7% | 45.9% | 100.6% |
| 8/14/2024 | -16.7% | -42.8% | -41.6% |
| 3/28/2024 | -11.0% | 3.3% | -46.6% |
| 11/14/2023 | 3.2% | -42.3% | -20.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| # Negative | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 4.9% | 2.2% | 81.4% |
| Median Negative | -13.9% | -26.6% | -35.1% |
| Max Positive | 16.5% | 45.9% | 100.6% |
| Max Negative | -22.3% | -42.8% | -46.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 03/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/14/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/14/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/15/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/14/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/29/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 07/26/2023 | 424B4 |
| 06/30/2022 | 02/09/2023 | DRS/A |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 24.00 Mil | 25.00 Mil | 26.00 Mil | -5.7% | Lowered | Guidance: 26.50 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Loss | 13.50 Mil | 14.50 Mil | 15.50 Mil | 100.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 7.25 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue | 128.00 Mil | 133.00 Mil | 138.00 Mil | 26.7% | Higher New | Guidance: 105.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 20.0% | 25.0% | 30.0% | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Loss | 40.00 Mil | 45.00 Mil | 50.00 Mil | ||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/12/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Revenue | 25.50 Mil | 26.50 Mil | 27.50 Mil | ||||
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Loss | -8.00 Mil | -7.25 Mil | -6.50 Mil | ||||
| 2025 Revenue | 105.00 Mil | 5.0% | Raised | Guidance: 100.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Painter, Tyler | Trust | Sell | 6262025 | 4.00 | 18,583 | 74,345 | 88,744 | Form | |
| 2 | Painter, Tyler | Trust | Sell | 6262025 | 5.00 | 22,000 | 110,000 | 910 | Form | |
| 3 | Palantir, Technologies Inc | Direct | Buy | 6232025 | 2.07 | 1,040,557 | 2,153,953 | 9,235,437 | Form | |
| 4 | Shahani, Sudhin | Direct | Sell | 6042025 | 2.43 | 75,840 | 184,291 | 1,335,475 | Form | |
| 5 | Bland, Tyrone D | Direct | Sell | 5232025 | 2.46 | 6,065 | 14,920 | 21,896 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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