Surf Air Mobility (SRFM)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $1.97 | Market Cap: $83.6 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines
Surf Air Mobility (SRFM)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $1.97Market Cap: $83.6 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Airlines
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Advanced Air Mobility. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -115% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -43 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -40% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.5% | |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -64%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -79% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 319% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 168% | ||
| Key risksSRFM key risks include [1] substantial going concern risk driven by severe financial distress and debt, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Advanced Air Mobility. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -115% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -43 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -40% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.5% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -64%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -79% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 319% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 168% |
| Key risksSRFM key risks include [1] substantial going concern risk driven by severe financial distress and debt, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SRFM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points highlighting why Surf Air Mobility (SRFM) stock experienced a significant decline for the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 17, 2025:
1. Delayed Electrification Certification and Associated Losses
Surf Air Mobility faced a setback with its core electrification strategy, delaying the certification of its electric engine system to 2027 due to limitations in current technology. This delay contributed to a substantial net loss in previous periods and continued to raise concerns about the company's timeline for bringing electrified aircraft to market and achieving its long-term goals.
2. Persistent Cash Flow Challenges and Funding Needs
Despite securing a $50 million term loan in Q3 2024 and $100 million in strategic financing in Q3 2025, the company's cash position remained fragile, with a notable decrease in its cash balance by Q1 2025. This indicated ongoing capital constraints and a need for further funding, which could lead to dilution risks and investor apprehension about the company's financial stability.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SRFM Return | � | � | � | � | -50% | -64% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | -51% | 86% | 16% | 4% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SRFM Win Rate | � | � | � | 40% | 42% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 39% | 37% | 63% | 48% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SRFM Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | -91% | -65% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -54% | -28% | -41% | -39% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JOBY, ACHR, FLYX, UP, SKYW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/16/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
SRFM has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 273 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 232 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 312 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 172.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1463 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -22.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2022. A -22.6% loss requires a 29.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Surf Air Mobility Earnings Notes | |||
| With Surf Air Mobility Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | Return | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Surf Air Mobility Stock: The Upside Case | November 17th, 2025 | ||
| What’s Happening With Surf Air Mobility Stock? | August 20th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SRFM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Surf Air Mobility
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 5.64 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.3 |
| Rev LTM | 236 |
| Op Inc LTM | -164 |
| FCF LTM | -186 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -217 |
| CFO LTM | -90 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -167 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 16.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -4.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -35.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -24.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -14.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -11.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -37.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -28.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.3 |
| P/S | 1.7 |
| P/EBIT | -4.9 |
| P/E | -4.4 |
| P/CFO | -7.2 |
| Total Yield | -14.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -21.0% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -23.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 1.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -6.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 275.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -28.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -11.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -8.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 198.7% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/12/2025 | -8.5% | -24.5% | -34.0% |
| 8/12/2025 | 16.5% | 0.2% | -1.2% |
| 3/18/2025 | 4.9% | 1.0% | -36.2% |
| 11/14/2024 | -4.7% | 45.9% | 100.6% |
| 8/14/2024 | -16.7% | -42.8% | -41.6% |
| 3/28/2024 | -11.0% | 3.3% | -46.6% |
| 11/14/2023 | 3.2% | -42.3% | -20.2% |
| 8/16/2023 | -17.5% | -3.5% | 62.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| # Negative | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 4.9% | 2.2% | 81.4% |
| Median Negative | -11.0% | -33.4% | -35.1% |
| Max Positive | 16.5% | 45.9% | 100.6% |
| Max Negative | -17.5% | -42.8% | -46.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11122025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8122025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5132025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11142024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5152024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8292023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 12312022 | 7262023 | 424B4 12/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2092023 | DRS/A 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |