Tearsheet

Surf Air Mobility (SRFM)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $2.385 | Market Cap: $49.9 Mil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines

Surf Air Mobility (SRFM)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $2.385
Market Cap: $49.9 Mil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Passenger Airlines

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Advanced Air Mobility.
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -111%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -35 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -33%
1   Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 88%
2   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -15%
3   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -58%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -72%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -79%
5   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 171%
6   Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 24%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Advanced Air Mobility.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -111%
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -35 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -33%
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 88%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -15%
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -58%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -72%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -79%
7 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 171%
8 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 24%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SRFM Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points highlighting why Surf Air Mobility (SRFM) stock moved by approximately -47% from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Q2 2025 Revenue Shortfall and Wider Earnings Per Share Loss. At the onset of the period, Surf Air Mobility reported its second-quarter 2025 financial results on August 12, 2025, with revenue of $27.4 million, significantly missing the forecasted $49 million. The company also posted an earnings per share (EPS) loss of -$1.34, indicating greater financial challenges than anticipated by analysts.

2. Significant Miss on Q3 2025 Revenue Forecasts. While Surf Air Mobility's Q3 2025 revenue of $29.2 million, reported on November 12, 2025, exceeded its own guidance and analyst estimates, it notably fell short of a higher forecasted revenue of $53 million by 44.91%. This substantial difference between actual and earlier projections likely created negative sentiment among investors.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SRFM Return-----50%-61%-81%
Peers Return-14%-1%-20%5%28%0%-9%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SRFM Win Rate---40%42%30% 
Peers Win Rate33%40%31%33%38%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SRFM Max Drawdown-----91%-65% 
Peers Max Drawdown-52%-11%-29%-15%-8%-28% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RJET, AL, JBLU, CAKR, DAL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

SRFM has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-22.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven29.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven273 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-42.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven74.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven232 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-24.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven32.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven312 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-63.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven172.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1463 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -22.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2022. A -22.6% loss requires a 29.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Surf Air Mobility (SRFM)

Better Bets than Surf Air Mobility (SRFM)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SRFM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Surf Air Mobility

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SRFMRJETALJBLUCAKRDALMedian
NameSurf Air.Republic.Air LeaseJetBlue .Cambodia.Delta Ai. 
Mkt Price2.3019.0163.844.71-67.4919.01
Mkt Cap0.0-7.11.7-43.84.4
Rev LTM1071,3532,9089,095-62,9202,908
Op Inc LTM-35258601-222-6,072258
FCF LTM-78138-1,985-1,354-3,074-78
FCF 3Y Avg-63-123-2,513-1,156-1,835-123
CFO LTM-622221,751-160-7,976222
CFO 3Y Avg-532451,723153-7,253245

Growth & Margins

SRFMRJETALJBLUCAKRDALMedian
NameSurf Air.Republic.Air LeaseJetBlue .Cambodia.Delta Ai. 
Rev Chg LTM-4.0%3.7%6.2%-2.5%-4.3%3.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--0.1%8.0%2.3%-10.8%5.1%
Rev Chg Q-15.2%30.9%5.1%-1.8%-6.4%5.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-4.4%7.4%1.2%-0.5%-1.6%1.2%
Op Mgn LTM-32.6%19.1%20.7%-2.4%-9.7%9.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-138.1%12.2%23.7%-1.0%-9.5%9.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM6.9%2.1%-0.5%-0.9%-0.3%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM-58.1%16.4%60.2%-1.8%-12.7%12.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-86.7%18.1%63.0%1.5%-12.1%12.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-72.2%10.2%-68.3%-14.9%-4.9%-14.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-96.5%-9.2%-92.3%-12.4%-3.0%-12.4%

Valuation

SRFMRJETALJBLUCAKRDALMedian
NameSurf Air.Republic.Air LeaseJetBlue .Cambodia.Delta Ai. 
Mkt Cap0.0-7.11.7-43.84.4
P/S0.7-2.40.2-0.60.7
P/EBIT-1.7-5.3-28.0-5.61.8
P/E-1.3-7.0-3.8-8.02.8
P/CFO-1.2-4.1-11.2-4.61.4
Total Yield-74.4%-15.7%-26.2%-13.2%-6.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%-1.4%0.0%-0.6%0.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg---48.4%-60.1%-5.7%-48.4%
D/E1.2-2.85.3-0.62.0
Net D/E0.9-2.83.8-0.51.8

Returns

SRFMRJETALJBLUCAKRDALMedian
NameSurf Air.Republic.Air LeaseJetBlue .Cambodia.Delta Ai. 
1M Rtn-40.3%--0.0%12.7%-15.4%6.3%
3M Rtn-43.5%-0.1%-13.6%-10.5%-6.8%
6M Rtn-5.7%-12.9%-6.4%-38.7%3.6%
12M Rtn-52.5%-28.7%-22.3%-9.2%-6.6%
3Y Rtn--72.7%-40.7%-94.3%72.7%
1M Excs Rtn-40.2%-0.0%12.7%-15.4%6.4%
3M Excs Rtn-48.1%--5.0%-12.8%-6.5%-8.9%
6M Excs Rtn-20.5%--1.8%-21.1%-24.0%-11.1%
12M Excs Rtn-56.2%-13.9%-34.7%--6.5%-20.6%
3Y Excs Rtn--7.1%-111.4%-32.0%7.1%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,034,556
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202528.1%
Average Daily Volume2,902,664
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.73
Basic Shares Quantity20,902,901
Short % of Basic Shares24.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025812202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025513202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024321202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241114202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024814202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024515202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023329202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231114202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023829202310-Q 6/30/2023
123120227262023424B4 12/31/2022
123120212092023DRS/A 12/31/2021