flyExclusive (FLYX)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $3.29 | Market Cap: $91.4 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines
flyExclusive (FLYX)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $3.29Market Cap: $91.4 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Airlines
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -116%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -139% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -56 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -16% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech. | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 283% | |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.6% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 62% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -25% | ||
| Significant short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 18.04 | ||
| Key risksFLYX key risks include [1] severe financial distress, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -116%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -139% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -56 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -16% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 283% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.6% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 62% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -25% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 18.04 |
| Key risksFLYX key risks include [1] severe financial distress, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
FLYX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points explaining significant movements in flyExclusive (FLYX) stock, including a recent notable decline of approximately 21.4% over a seven-day period as of December 18, 2025:
1. Operating Losses and Unprofitability: Despite reporting revenue growth, flyExclusive has continued to experience significant net losses and EBITDA losses. The company's net loss increased from $54.7 million in 2023 to $101.5 million in 2024, with EBITDA losses also widening. Although losses have shown some sequential improvement in 2025, the company explicitly states an expectation to incur operating losses in the near term.
2. Fleet Modernization and Associated Costs: FlyExclusive has been undergoing a fleet modernization program, retiring older, less efficient aircraft and introducing newer models like the Challenger 350. While this is intended for long-term profitability, the transition has involved the sale of legacy heavy fleets, which temporarily impacted top-line revenue, and associated costs. The company reduced its certified aircraft count from 102 at the end of 2023 to 89 by the end of 2024.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FLYX Return | � | � | 3% | -45% | -43% | -1% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | -65% | -70% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FLYX Win Rate | � | 60% | 58% | 75% | 42% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | 58% | 33% | 31% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FLYX Max Drawdown | � | � | -1% | -45% | -63% | -38% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | -80% | -76% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: UP, SRFM, SOAR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FLYX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -54.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 117.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 59 days | 464 days |
Compare to RJET, AL, JBLU, DAL, UAL
In The Past
flyExclusive's stock fell -54.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2023. A -54.1% loss requires a 117.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to FLYX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.0% | 18.0% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.6% | 2.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 3.6% | 3.6% | -0.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.0% | 18.0% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.6% | 2.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 3.6% | 3.6% | -0.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for flyExclusive
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 1.46 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.1 |
| Rev LTM | 236 |
| Op Inc LTM | -50 |
| FCF LTM | -54 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -70 |
| CFO LTM | -39 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -57 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -4.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -19.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | -0.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -25.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -25.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -5.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -14.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -23.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -26.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -34.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.1 |
| P/S | 0.4 |
| P/EBIT | -1.4 |
| P/E | -1.2 |
| P/CFO | -0.9 |
| Total Yield | -48.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -143.5% |
| D/E | 1.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.9 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -49.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -17.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -54.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | -93.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -15.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -50.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -31.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -69.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -165.3% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/12/2025 | -1.2% | 5.2% | 16.6% |
| 8/13/2025 | -2.9% | 42.5% | 56.1% |
| 1/3/2024 | 12.5% | 15.8% | 56.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| # Negative | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 12.5% | 15.8% | 56.1% |
| Median Negative | -2.0% | ||
| Max Positive | 12.5% | 42.5% | 56.7% |
| Max Negative | -2.9% | ||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11122025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8132025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5132025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3242025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11142024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 8122024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 5012024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 8142023 | PRER14A 12/31/2022 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |