AGI (AGBK)
Market Price (3/29/2026): $6.91 | Market Cap: $-Sector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
AGI (AGBK)
Market Price (3/29/2026): $6.91Market Cap: $-Sector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, Circular Economy & Recycling, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -57%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -97% | Key risksAGBK key risks include [1] regulatory vulnerability stemming from its heavy reliance on Brazil's INSS social security program for its payroll-loan business. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, Circular Economy & Recycling, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -57%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -97% |
| Key risksAGBK key risks include [1] regulatory vulnerability stemming from its heavy reliance on Brazil's INSS social security program for its payroll-loan business. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Weak Initial Public Offering (IPO) Reception and Downsized Offering. AGI's IPO on February 11, 2026, was priced at $12.00 per share, which was the low end of a significantly reduced price range from its initial target of $15.00-$18.00 per share. The company also downsized the offering from 43.64 million shares to 20 million shares, reducing the capital raised from an initial target of $720 million to $240 million. On its debut day, the stock opened at $11.00 and closed at $10.75, representing a 10.42% drop from its IPO price.
2. Negative Broader Market Sentiment for Brazilian Fintech IPOs. The challenging IPO environment for AGI was exacerbated by a negative trend affecting similar companies. The steep cut in AGI's IPO terms occurred amidst a 20% decline in PicS (PICS), another digital Brazilian banking company that went public in late January 2026, suggesting broader investor apprehension towards new Brazilian fintech listings.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AGBK | ||
| Market (SPY) | -5.3% | 58.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | -10.0% | 41.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AGBK | ||
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 58.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | -10.8% | 41.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AGBK | ||
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 58.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | -7.1% | 41.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AGBK | ||
| Market (SPY) | 69.4% | 58.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 40.5% | 41.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AGBK Return | - | - | - | - | - | -32% | -32% |
| Peers Return | -48% | -56% | 79% | -27% | 69% | -6% | -52% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -5% | 72% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AGBK Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 28% | 44% | 64% | 39% | 61% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AGBK Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -32% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -51% | -64% | -16% | -37% | -3% | -10% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -5% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NU, STNE, PAGS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
AGBK has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 525 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 295 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -83.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 515.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4,470 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to NU, STNE, PAGS
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
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About AGI (AGBK)
AI Analysis | Feedback
AGI is like a digitally advanced credit union for Brazil's financially underserved, blending local physical support with a robust mobile app to provide secure, income-backed loans.
Think of AGI as Brazil's specialized 'neo-bank' or challenger bank that prioritizes in-person guidance and secure, payroll-backed lending for millions overlooked by traditional and pure-digital banks.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Secured Lending Solutions: This encompasses their primary loan offerings, secured by social security benefits, severance funds (FGTS), and public or private sector payrolls.
- Banking Solutions: They provide comprehensive services for account management, money transfers, and payments through a combination of mobile applications and physical Smart Hubs.
- Other Credit Products: AGI offers additional credit solutions designed to provide financial flexibility beyond their core secured lending portfolio.
- Insurance Products: Tailored insurance offerings are available to meet the evolving financial protection needs of their target customers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AGI (AGBK) sells primarily to individuals. The company serves the following three categories of customers:
- Social security beneficiaries
- Private sector workers
- Public sector workers
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Marciano Testa – Founder, Executive Chairman and CEO
Marciano Testa is the Founder, Executive Chairman, and CEO of Agi Inc., the holding company of Banco Agibank S.A., one of Brazil's first digital banks. He is recognized as a leading entrepreneur in the Brazilian financial market, driven by a mission to provide accessible banking experiences to all Brazilians. Testa co-founded Instituto Caldeira, a private initiative dedicated to accelerating digital transformation in Rio Grande do Sul, where he serves as President. He holds an Economic Sciences degree from Unisinos with a specialization in Finance, and has completed executive programs at Singularity University and Harvard Business School. He was appointed CEO in September 2021 and directly owns 63.07% of the company's shares.Marcello Dubeux – Chief Financial and Investor Relations Officer
Marcello Dubeux serves as the Chief Financial and Investor Relations Officer for Agi Inc.Glauber Correa – Chief Operating Officer
Glauber Correa is the Chief Operating Officer of Agi Inc. and also serves as the CEO of Banco Agibank. He is a Director and partner at Agi. Prior to his current role, he spent over five years as Agibank's Chief Channels, Growth, CRM, and Business Officer, before becoming CEO of the bank in 2021. Correa has a long career history at Caixa Econômica Federal. He holds a master's degree in Corporate Finance, an MBA in Finance, and degrees in Civil Engineering and Technology of Information, alongside completing an Executive Program at Singularity, in Silicon Valley.Matheus Girardi – Chief Clients Officer
Matheus Girardi is the Chief Clients Officer and a partner at Agi. He brings over 12 years of experience in the financial and technology industries. His previous roles include Digital Channels Manager at Agi and Senior Product Development Manager at Sicredi. Girardi also founded the startups Reservei and Simulei, and worked as a Financial Solutions Product Owner at NeoGrid.Lucas Aguiar – Chief People & Governance Officer
Lucas Aguiar leads the People and Governance department and is a partner at Agi. He is a statistician with a specialization in Credit Management from FIA. Aguiar joined Agibank in 2019, initially as the Portfolio and Credit Modeling manager. Since 2021, as Executive Manager, he has overseen Data Engineering, Data Science, BI, and Fraud Prevention, driving initiatives to enhance data utilization within the organization.AI Analysis | Feedback
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High Reliance on Secured Lending Segments and Associated Regulatory / Policy Changes
AGI's business is heavily concentrated in loans secured by social security benefits, FGTS (severance fund), and public/private sector payrolls, which constituted 86.2% of its total credit portfolio as of September 30, 2025. This significant reliance exposes the company to substantial risk from adverse changes in government regulations, policies, or the administration of these specific income streams. For example, alterations to social security rules, changes in how FGTS can be accessed, or new regulations regarding payroll deduction loans could severely impact AGI's core business model, credit quality, and growth prospects. The company's entry into private sector payroll loans, which was contingent on a new regulatory framework, further highlights this sensitivity to policy shifts.
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Intense Competition from Established Incumbent Banks
Despite AGI's rapid growth and increasing market share, Brazil's five largest incumbent banks collectively hold approximately 70% of the country's credit balance in payroll credit as of June 30, 2025. This indicates a highly competitive landscape where established players possess significant resources, extensive customer bases, and strong market presence. Aggressive competitive strategies from these incumbent banks, whether through pricing, product innovation, or expanded distribution, could challenge AGI's ability to continue gaining market share and sustain its "superior unit economics," particularly in its target segments.
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Exposure to Brazilian Macroeconomic and Political Instability
As a financial institution operating exclusively in Brazil and primarily serving a segment of the population that may be more vulnerable to economic shifts, AGI's performance is highly sensitive to the overall macroeconomic environment and political stability of the country. Factors such as inflation, interest rates, unemployment rates, and broader political conditions in Brazil can directly impact its customers' financial health, their ability to repay loans, and the overall demand for credit products. A significant economic downturn or prolonged political instability could lead to increased defaults, reduced loan origination, and negatively affect AGI's profitability and growth trajectory.
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The total estimated addressable market for AGI's financial services in Brazil is over R$2.0 trillion as of September 30, 2025.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AGI (AGBK) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives:
- Expansion into New Market Segments: AGI recently entered the public sector payroll loan market in 2024 and the private sector payroll loan market in 2025. These segments represent significant opportunities for expansion, particularly with the introduction of the Brazilian government's "Crédito do Trabalhador" program, which streamlines onboarding for private sector workers through digital platforms.
- Continued Market Share Gains from Incumbent Players: The company's current market share of all benefits and payroll related loans in Brazil remains relatively small at 3.6% as of September 30, 2025. Given that Brazil's five largest incumbent banks still hold approximately 70% of the country's credit balance in payroll credit, AGI anticipates capturing further market share from these established institutions.
- Growth in Active Client Base: AGI has demonstrated strong growth in its active client base, reaching 6.4 million active clients as of September 30, 2025, a 77.2% increase compared to the same period in 2024. The company's unique hybrid engagement model and low customer acquisition cost (CAC) support continued expansion of its client base, which in turn drives revenue growth.
- Increased Adoption of a Broader Suite of Solutions: AGI's specially designed suite of solutions enables customers to access secured credit, and a growing range of banking, credit, and insurance products. The company's strategy involves migrating customers to its mobile banking app to manage accounts and sign up for new solutions, indicating a focus on deepening customer relationships and increasing the average revenue per active client (ARPAC).
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Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 11.53 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.5 |
| Rev LTM | 14,533 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7,022 |
| FCF LTM | 2,803 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 600 |
| CFO LTM | 4,040 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,188 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 22.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 21.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 16.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 42.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 41.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.5 |
| P/S | 0.2 |
| P/EBIT | 1.9 |
| P/E | 1.3 |
| P/CFO | 0.6 |
| Total Yield | 3.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.2% |
| D/E | 4.6 |
| Net D/E | 2.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -14.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -14.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -21.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 25.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 31.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -7.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -17.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 9.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -24.6% |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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