Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 9.6x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 50x
1 Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%
Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 13%
  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -89%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -96%
2 Uninsured deposits are low
Uninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 5.6%
  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 104%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Digital Payments, and Wealth Management Technology.
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2%
4   Key risks
SOFI key risks include [1] heightened credit risk from its significant concentration in unsecured personal loans and [2] regulatory scrutiny stemming from its crypto operations and past compliance failures.
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%
1 Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%
Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 13%
2 Uninsured deposits are low
Uninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 5.6%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Digital Payments, and Wealth Management Technology.
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 9.6x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 50x
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -89%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -96%
7 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 104%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2%
9 Key risks
SOFI key risks include [1] heightened credit risk from its significant concentration in unsecured personal loans and [2] regulatory scrutiny stemming from its crypto operations and past compliance failures.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SOFI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings and Upbeat Guidance

SoFi Technologies reported robust third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 28, 2025, surpassing analyst expectations for both revenue and earnings per share (EPS). The company posted adjusted net revenue of $950 million, a 38% increase year-over-year, and adjusted EPS of $0.11, significantly beating the consensus estimate of $0.09. Additionally, SoFi raised its full-year 2025 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance, signaling continued confidence in its growth trajectory. 2. Launch of SoFiUSD Stablecoin

On December 18, 2025, SoFi announced the introduction of SoFiUSD, a U.S. dollar stablecoin fully backed by cash and issued by SoFi Bank, N.A. This strategic move positioned SoFi as the first U.S. national bank to issue a stablecoin on a public blockchain, aiming to expand its presence in the digital payments ecosystem and offer faster, more secure, and lower-cost transaction infrastructure. The news led to an immediate positive market reaction, with SoFi's stock rising 5% on the day of the announcement. 3. Continued Member and Product Growth

SoFi sustained its strong growth in member acquisition and product adoption throughout the period. In Q3 2025, the company added a record 905,000 new members, increasing its total member base by 35% year-over-year to 12.6 million. Total products also saw significant growth, up 36% year-over-year to 18.6 million. This consistent expansion of its ecosystem demonstrates the effectiveness of its "one-stop shop" strategy. 4. Analyst Upgrades and Positive Price Target Adjustments

Several Wall Street analysts provided updated ratings and price targets for SoFi during this timeframe. Needham, for instance, issued a "Buy" rating on October 29, 2025, and increased its price target to $36.00. Similarly, Barclays raised its price target from $21.00 to $23.00 with an "Outperform" rating, and Citigroup boosted its target from $28.00 to $37.00 with a "Buy" rating. These positive revisions contributed to an optimistic sentiment around the stock. 5. $1.5 Billion Share Offering

On December 4, 2025, SoFi Technologies announced a public offering of common stock to raise $1.5 billion. While this move sparked some concern among investors regarding potential dilution of existing shares, it was also viewed by some as a strategic step to bolster reserves and optimize the balance sheet for future lending and technology expansion. The offering was priced at $27.50.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SOFI Return27%-71%116%55%71%
Peers Return-45%15%66%54%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SOFI Win Rate100%33%25%50%50%75% 
Peers Win Rate49%40%50%57%57% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SOFI Max Drawdown-3%-73%-2%-36%-38% 
Peers Max Drawdown-54%-25%-12%-22% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PYPL, ALLY, HOOD, SCHW, LC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSOFIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-83.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven499.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven992 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-2.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven2.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven9 days148 days

Compare to OBDC, BUR, GFCX, AXP, COF


In The Past

SoFi Technologies's stock fell -83.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/1/2021. A -83.3% loss requires a 499.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About SoFi Technologies (SOFI)

Better Bets than SoFi Technologies (SOFI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SOFI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.5%13.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.0%2.0%-0.5%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.8%-4.8%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.8%5.8%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-12.1%-12.1%-12.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.5%13.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.0%2.0%-0.5%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.8%-4.8%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.8%5.8%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-12.1%-12.1%-12.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for SoFi Technologies

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SOFIPYPLALLYHOODSCHWLCMedian
NameSoFi Tec.PayPal Ally Fin.Robinhoo.Charles .LendingC. 
Mkt Price27.2459.8145.69121.3598.8219.6552.75
Mkt Cap31.956.814.2107.9178.52.344.4
Rev LTM3,32232,8628,6484,20422,9149506,426
Op Inc LTM-6,296-2,004--4,150
FCF LTM-3,1795,565-2611,119-1,397-2,151-829
FCF 3Y Avg-4,6715,2651,0171,2199,437-1,9381,118
CFO LTM-2,9516,4264,0401,175-753-2,009211
CFO 3Y Avg-4,5065,9724,4491,26010,075-1,8542,854

Growth & Margins

SOFIPYPLALLYHOODSCHWLCMedian
NameSoFi Tec.PayPal Ally Fin.Robinhoo.Charles .LendingC. 
Rev Chg LTM34.0%4.5%-3.3%74.6%22.3%25.7%24.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg33.4%6.7%-1.8%47.5%5.4%-4.8%6.0%
Rev Chg Q38.6%7.3%3.3%100.0%26.6%31.9%29.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM8.8%1.8%0.9%17.9%6.0%7.3%6.6%
Op Mgn LTM-19.2%-47.7%--33.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-17.9%-9.9%--13.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%-5.1%--2.6%
CFO/Rev LTM-88.8%19.6%46.7%27.9%-3.3%-211.5%8.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-204.8%19.0%49.6%47.4%54.3%-224.6%33.2%
FCF/Rev LTM-95.7%16.9%-3.0%26.6%-6.1%-226.5%-4.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-211.1%16.8%11.0%45.9%51.2%-233.9%13.9%

Valuation

SOFIPYPLALLYHOODSCHWLCMedian
NameSoFi Tec.PayPal Ally Fin.Robinhoo.Charles .LendingC. 
Mkt Cap31.956.814.2107.9178.52.344.4
P/S9.61.71.625.77.82.45.1
P/EBIT-8.7-53.8--31.3
P/E49.811.622.449.221.721.822.1
P/CFO-10.88.83.591.8-237.0-1.11.2
Total Yield2.0%8.7%7.1%2.0%4.6%4.6%4.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%2.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-50.4%7.5%12.5%5.2%7.9%-144.9%6.4%
D/E0.10.21.40.10.20.00.1
Net D/E-0.10.0-0.60.0-0.4-0.4-0.2

Returns

SOFIPYPLALLYHOODSCHWLCMedian
NameSoFi Tec.PayPal Ally Fin.Robinhoo.Charles .LendingC. 
1M Rtn1.9%-0.5%19.0%2.7%6.7%23.1%4.7%
3M Rtn-7.7%-12.1%4.1%-2.7%5.1%11.5%0.7%
6M Rtn79.2%-14.4%25.6%54.6%11.4%78.5%40.1%
12M Rtn81.2%-30.9%36.3%228.5%35.9%20.6%36.1%
3Y Rtn496.1%-12.8%116.6%1,398.1%29.8%127.2%121.9%
1M Excs Rtn-0.9%-3.4%16.1%-0.2%3.8%20.2%1.8%
3M Excs Rtn-10.7%-13.5%3.8%-4.9%2.8%9.1%-1.0%
6M Excs Rtn63.9%-30.2%12.0%45.5%-1.0%62.3%28.7%
12M Excs Rtn50.5%-47.0%16.0%178.5%17.4%-2.5%16.7%
3Y Excs Rtn408.5%-88.5%28.6%1,163.9%-37.6%38.4%33.5%

FDIC Bank Data

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil2024202320222021
Lending1,3711,140738481
Financial Services4371685812
Technology Platform35231519596
Corporate/Other-37-49-6-24
Total2,1231,574985566


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity117,959,635
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520251.6%
Average Daily Volume65,895,587
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.79
Basic Shares Quantity1,171,205,000
Short % of Basic Shares10.1%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/28/20255.5%2.1%-5.6%
7/29/20256.6%3.8%21.9%
4/29/20250.5%-2.6%0.9%
1/27/2025-10.3%-11.9%-22.3%
10/29/2024-6.4%-2.5%38.4%
7/30/20241.2%-10.8%6.0%
4/29/2024-10.5%-11.6%-12.5%
1/29/202420.2%3.4%20.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive1288
# Negative61010
Median Positive6.0%9.5%11.3%
Median Negative-11.3%-11.2%-12.6%
Max Positive28.4%25.6%38.4%
Max Negative-14.1%-20.8%-26.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024224202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021