Sun Country Airlines (SNCY)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $14.68 | Market Cap: $778.6 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines
Sun Country Airlines (SNCY)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $14.68Market Cap: $778.6 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Airlines
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.1%, FCF Yield is 22% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -52%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -89% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 64% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Key risksSNCY key risks include [1] management execution issues in balancing its hybrid passenger and cargo services amid intense competition and [2] potential defaults from aircraft lessees if the U.S. Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Global Logistics. Themes include Leisure Travel & Tourism, and Air Cargo Services. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.1%, FCF Yield is 22% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Global Logistics. Themes include Leisure Travel & Tourism, and Air Cargo Services. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -52%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -89% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 64% |
| Key risksSNCY key risks include [1] management execution issues in balancing its hybrid passenger and cargo services amid intense competition and [2] potential defaults from aircraft lessees if the U.S. Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SNCY Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Based on the most recent information available, which extends through late 2024 and announced plans for 2025, here are key points that would explain a significant positive movement in Sun Country Airlines (SNCY) stock, such as the 10.7% increase you referenced for a hypothetical future period. The specific dates of August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, are in the future, and detailed real-time market performance data for that period is not available. The following points are based on company developments and analyst expectations leading up to and into 2025.
1. Strong Financial Performance and Profitability: Sun Country Airlines has demonstrated consistent financial health, reporting its ninth consecutive profitable quarter in Q3 2024. The company anticipated margin expansions for Q4 2024, driven by favorable unit cost trends and reductions in fuel prices. This sustained profitability and positive outlook on margins are key factors that would instill investor confidence.
2. Robust Growth in Cargo and Charter Operations: The airline's diversified business model, particularly its cargo and charter segments, has shown strong performance. In Q3 2024, cargo revenue increased by 11.9% year-over-year due to annual rate escalations and new contract rates with Amazon. The charter business also grew by 7.0%. Sun Country plans to further expand its cargo fleet by adding eight more freighter aircraft throughout 2025, signaling continued growth and revenue diversification.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SNCY Return | � | � | -42% | -1% | -7% | 2% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SNCY Win Rate | � | 22% | 42% | 50% | 67% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SNCY Max Drawdown | � | � | -50% | -21% | -41% | -44% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RJET, AL, JBLU, CAKR, DAL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SNCY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -70.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 241.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to RJET, AL, JBLU, CAKR, DAL
In The Past
Sun Country Airlines's stock fell -70.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/21/2021. A -70.8% loss requires a 241.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SNCY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.6% | 5.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.6% | 5.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Sun Country Airlines
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 19.94 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.4 |
| Rev LTM | 2,908 |
| Op Inc LTM | 258 |
| FCF LTM | 135 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -123 |
| CFO LTM | 222 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 245 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -9.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.4 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| P/EBIT | 5.4 |
| P/E | 7.5 |
| P/CFO | 3.9 |
| Total Yield | 11.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -21.4% |
| D/E | 1.9 |
| Net D/E | 1.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 21.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 8.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 26.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 7.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 33.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 20.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 13.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -4.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -40.8% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | 6.2% | 18.7% | 28.4% |
| 7/31/2025 | -11.0% | -6.1% | 14.3% |
| 5/1/2025 | 11.5% | 21.1% | 17.4% |
| 2/4/2025 | -0.9% | 6.9% | -6.8% |
| 10/30/2024 | 9.9% | 21.8% | 12.6% |
| 8/1/2024 | -5.5% | -11.3% | -5.9% |
| 5/7/2024 | -8.0% | -6.1% | -14.8% |
| 1/31/2024 | 7.7% | 6.5% | 10.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 9 | 8 |
| # Negative | 11 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 7.9% | 15.9% | 15.9% |
| Median Negative | -7.4% | -7.7% | -6.8% |
| Max Positive | 12.7% | 21.8% | 32.8% |
| Max Negative | -18.6% | -20.5% | -26.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2122025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2152023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8102022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2182022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |