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Sun Country Airlines (SNCY)


Market Price (12/21/2025): $14.66 | Market Cap: $777.5 Mil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines

Sun Country Airlines (SNCY)


Market Price (12/21/2025): $14.66
Market Cap: $777.5 Mil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Passenger Airlines

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.3%, FCF Yield is 17%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -91%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 52%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
Key risks
SNCY key risks include [1] management execution issues in balancing its hybrid passenger and cargo services amid intense competition and [2] potential defaults from aircraft lessees if the U.S. Show more.
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Global Logistics. Themes include Leisure Travel & Tourism, and Air Cargo Services.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.3%, FCF Yield is 17%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Global Logistics. Themes include Leisure Travel & Tourism, and Air Cargo Services.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -91%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 52%
6 Key risks
SNCY key risks include [1] management execution issues in balancing its hybrid passenger and cargo services amid intense competition and [2] potential defaults from aircraft lessees if the U.S. Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SNCY Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Sun Country Airlines (SNCY) experienced a notable increase in its market capitalization, rising by 9.31% over the 30 days leading up to December 18, 2025. This movement, close to the requested 10.2%, can be attributed to several key factors from approximately August 31, 2025, to today (December 21, 2025). **1. Record Third-Quarter 2025 Revenue**

Sun Country Airlines reported its highest third-quarter revenue on record, reaching $256 million, indicating robust top-line performance. This strong revenue growth highlighted the company's ability to increase sales and attract customers. **2. Substantial Growth and Diversification in Cargo Operations**

The airline's cargo segment underwent a significant transformation, with the full deployment of 20 freighter aircraft for Amazon. This led to a 50.9% year-over-year increase in cargo revenue during the third quarter of 2025, showcasing a successful strategy to diversify revenue streams and enhance financial stability. **3. Strategic Fleet Expansion and Route Optimization**

In November 2025, Sun Country Airlines began scheduled operations with its first Boeing 737-900ER, part of an acquisition plan to expand its fleet. This move aims to deploy higher-capacity aircraft on its busiest leisure routes, thereby increasing passenger capacity and improving per-seat unit costs. **4. Commitment to Shareholder Value Through Stock Repurchases**

During the third quarter of 2025, Sun Country Airlines repurchased $10 million in its own stock. This action demonstrated management's confidence in the company's valuation and its commitment to returning capital to shareholders, which often positively influences investor sentiment. **5. Resilient Business Model and Positive Forward-Looking Outlook**

Despite an initial mixed reaction to the third-quarter earnings, which included an EPS miss, the overall strength of Sun Country's diversified business model, encompassing scheduled passenger, charter, and growing cargo operations, contributed to investor confidence. The anticipation of continued growth in cargo operations further supported a positive outlook.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SNCY Return-42%-1%-7%1%
Peers Return
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SNCY Win Rate22%42%50%67%58% 
Peers Win Rate 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SNCY Max Drawdown-50%-21%-41%-44% 
Peers Max Drawdown 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RJET, AL, JBLU, CAKR, DAL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSNCYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-70.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven241.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to RJET, AL, JBLU, CAKR, DAL


In The Past

Sun Country Airlines's stock fell -70.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/21/2021. A -70.8% loss requires a 241.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Sun Country Airlines (SNCY)

Better Bets than Sun Country Airlines (SNCY)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SNCY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
18.0%18.0%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%6.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.6%2.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
3.6%3.6%-0.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
18.0%18.0%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%6.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.6%2.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
3.6%3.6%-0.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Sun Country Airlines

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SNCYRJETALJBLUCAKRDALMedian
NameSun Coun.Republic.Air LeaseJetBlue .Cambodia.Delta Ai. 
Mkt Price14.6020.0664.154.80-71.0620.06
Mkt Cap0.8-7.21.7-46.14.5
Rev LTM1,1061,3532,9089,095-62,9202,908
Op Inc LTM110258601-222-6,072258
FCF LTM135138-1,985-1,354-3,074135
FCF 3Y Avg56-123-2,513-1,156-1,835-123
CFO LTM1692221,751-160-7,976222
CFO 3Y Avg1582451,723153-7,253245

Growth & Margins

SNCYRJETALJBLUCAKRDALMedian
NameSun Coun.Republic.Air LeaseJetBlue .Cambodia.Delta Ai. 
Rev Chg LTM4.3%3.7%6.2%-2.5%-4.3%4.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg10.0%-0.1%8.0%2.3%-10.8%8.0%
Rev Chg Q2.4%30.9%5.1%-1.8%-6.4%5.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.6%7.4%1.2%-0.5%-1.6%1.2%
Op Mgn LTM10.0%19.1%20.7%-2.4%-9.7%10.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg10.4%12.2%23.7%-1.0%-9.5%10.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.3%2.1%-0.5%-0.9%-0.3%-0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM15.3%16.4%60.2%-1.8%-12.7%15.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg14.8%18.1%63.0%1.5%-12.1%14.8%
FCF/Rev LTM12.2%10.2%-68.3%-14.9%-4.9%4.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.1%-9.2%-92.3%-12.4%-3.0%-9.2%

Valuation

SNCYRJETALJBLUCAKRDALMedian
NameSun Coun.Republic.Air LeaseJetBlue .Cambodia.Delta Ai. 
Mkt Cap0.8-7.21.7-46.14.5
P/S0.7-2.50.2-0.70.7
P/EBIT6.7-5.4-27.3-7.06.1
P/E13.3-7.0-3.7-10.08.5
P/CFO4.6-4.1-10.9-5.84.3
Total Yield7.5%-15.6%-26.9%-10.5%9.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%-1.4%0.0%-0.5%0.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg10.0%--48.4%-60.1%-5.7%-21.4%
D/E0.7-2.85.4-0.51.8
Net D/E0.5-2.83.9-0.41.6

Returns

SNCYRJETALJBLUCAKRDALMedian
NameSun Coun.Republic.Air LeaseJetBlue .Cambodia.Delta Ai. 
1M Rtn28.9%-1.0%17.6%-27.0%22.3%
3M Rtn15.7%-1.2%-4.6%-19.3%8.4%
6M Rtn36.4%-14.4%19.7%-51.5%28.1%
12M Rtn-2.7%-34.1%-35.5%-18.0%7.7%
3Y Rtn-11.7%-79.3%-27.2%-116.9%33.8%
1M Excs Rtn25.5%--2.0%14.2%-22.1%18.1%
3M Excs Rtn16.1%--0.7%-7.1%-18.9%7.7%
6M Excs Rtn20.9%-1.0%3.6%-34.8%12.3%
12M Excs Rtn-15.0%-19.8%-47.2%-5.3%-4.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-91.2%-3.2%-102.5%-41.8%-44.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil2024202320222021
Passenger950804532365
Cargo100909137
Total1,050894623401


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil2024202320222021
Passenger13356712
Cargo-5-04115
Total1285611217


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,930,591
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-0.8%
Average Daily Volume808,737
Days-to-Cover Short Interest7.33
Basic Shares Quantity53,034,859
Short % of Basic Shares11.2%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/20256.2%18.7%28.4%
7/31/2025-11.0%-6.1%14.3%
5/1/202511.5%21.1%17.4%
2/4/2025-0.9%6.9%-6.8%
10/30/20249.9%21.8%12.6%
8/1/2024-5.5%-11.3%-5.9%
5/7/2024-8.0%-6.1%-14.8%
1/31/20247.7%6.5%10.2%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive898
# Negative111011
Median Positive7.9%15.9%15.9%
Median Negative-7.4%-7.7%-6.8%
Max Positive12.7%21.8%32.8%
Max Negative-18.6%-20.5%-26.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025801202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025502202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024212202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024802202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023214202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023428202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022215202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022810202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021218202210-K 12/31/2021