Sun Country Airlines (SNCY)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $14.66 | Market Cap: $777.5 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines
Sun Country Airlines (SNCY)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $14.66Market Cap: $777.5 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Airlines
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.3%, FCF Yield is 17% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -91% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 52% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Key risksSNCY key risks include [1] management execution issues in balancing its hybrid passenger and cargo services amid intense competition and [2] potential defaults from aircraft lessees if the U.S. Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Global Logistics. Themes include Leisure Travel & Tourism, and Air Cargo Services. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.3%, FCF Yield is 17% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Global Logistics. Themes include Leisure Travel & Tourism, and Air Cargo Services. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -91% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 52% |
| Key risksSNCY key risks include [1] management execution issues in balancing its hybrid passenger and cargo services amid intense competition and [2] potential defaults from aircraft lessees if the U.S. Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SNCY Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Sun Country Airlines (SNCY) experienced a notable increase in its market capitalization, rising by 9.31% over the 30 days leading up to December 18, 2025. This movement, close to the requested 10.2%, can be attributed to several key factors from approximately August 31, 2025, to today (December 21, 2025).
**1. Record Third-Quarter 2025 Revenue**
Sun Country Airlines reported its highest third-quarter revenue on record, reaching $256 million, indicating robust top-line performance. This strong revenue growth highlighted the company's ability to increase sales and attract customers.
**2. Substantial Growth and Diversification in Cargo Operations**
The airline's cargo segment underwent a significant transformation, with the full deployment of 20 freighter aircraft for Amazon. This led to a 50.9% year-over-year increase in cargo revenue during the third quarter of 2025, showcasing a successful strategy to diversify revenue streams and enhance financial stability.
**3. Strategic Fleet Expansion and Route Optimization**
In November 2025, Sun Country Airlines began scheduled operations with its first Boeing 737-900ER, part of an acquisition plan to expand its fleet. This move aims to deploy higher-capacity aircraft on its busiest leisure routes, thereby increasing passenger capacity and improving per-seat unit costs.
**4. Commitment to Shareholder Value Through Stock Repurchases**
During the third quarter of 2025, Sun Country Airlines repurchased $10 million in its own stock. This action demonstrated management's confidence in the company's valuation and its commitment to returning capital to shareholders, which often positively influences investor sentiment.
**5. Resilient Business Model and Positive Forward-Looking Outlook**
Despite an initial mixed reaction to the third-quarter earnings, which included an EPS miss, the overall strength of Sun Country's diversified business model, encompassing scheduled passenger, charter, and growing cargo operations, contributed to investor confidence. The anticipation of continued growth in cargo operations further supported a positive outlook.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SNCY Return | � | � | -42% | -1% | -7% | 1% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SNCY Win Rate | � | 22% | 42% | 50% | 67% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SNCY Max Drawdown | � | � | -50% | -21% | -41% | -44% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RJET, AL, JBLU, CAKR, DAL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SNCY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -70.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 241.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to RJET, AL, JBLU, CAKR, DAL
In The Past
Sun Country Airlines's stock fell -70.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/21/2021. A -70.8% loss requires a 241.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SNCY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.0% | 18.0% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.6% | 2.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 3.6% | 3.6% | -0.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.0% | 18.0% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.6% | 2.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 3.6% | 3.6% | -0.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Sun Country Airlines
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 20.06 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.5 |
| Rev LTM | 2,908 |
| Op Inc LTM | 258 |
| FCF LTM | 135 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -123 |
| CFO LTM | 222 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 245 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -9.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.5 |
| P/S | 0.7 |
| P/EBIT | 6.1 |
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/CFO | 4.3 |
| Total Yield | 9.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -21.4% |
| D/E | 1.8 |
| Net D/E | 1.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 22.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 8.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 28.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 7.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 33.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 18.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 7.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 12.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -4.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -44.0% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | 6.2% | 18.7% | 28.4% |
| 7/31/2025 | -11.0% | -6.1% | 14.3% |
| 5/1/2025 | 11.5% | 21.1% | 17.4% |
| 2/4/2025 | -0.9% | 6.9% | -6.8% |
| 10/30/2024 | 9.9% | 21.8% | 12.6% |
| 8/1/2024 | -5.5% | -11.3% | -5.9% |
| 5/7/2024 | -8.0% | -6.1% | -14.8% |
| 1/31/2024 | 7.7% | 6.5% | 10.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 9 | 8 |
| # Negative | 11 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 7.9% | 15.9% | 15.9% |
| Median Negative | -7.4% | -7.7% | -6.8% |
| Max Positive | 12.7% | 21.8% | 32.8% |
| Max Negative | -18.6% | -20.5% | -26.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2122025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2152023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8102022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2182022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |