Republic Airways (RJET)
Market Price (5/11/2026): $22.93 | Market Cap: $1.0 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines
Republic Airways (RJET)
Market Price (5/11/2026): $22.93Market Cap: $1.0 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Airlines
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -35%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -71% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 92% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -33% Key risksRJET key risks include [1] significant financial leverage, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -35%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -71% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 92% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -33% |
| Key risksRJET key risks include [1] significant financial leverage, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Successful Integration of Mesa Air Group and Strong Q1 2026 Financial Results.
Republic Airways reported a 34% year-over-year revenue increase to $527.4 million for the first quarter of 2026, the first full quarter following its merger with Mesa Air Group in November 2025. This surge was primarily driven by a 30.4% increase in block hour production, largely due to the integration of 60 Embraer E175 aircraft previously operated by Mesa. The integration efforts are progressing ahead of schedule, contributing to anticipated operational efficiencies and stronger margins. The company reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance, expecting revenues to exceed $2 billion and adjusted EBITDAR over $380 million.
2. Strategic Fleet Modernization and Strengthened Capacity Purchase Agreements.
Republic completed a significant fleet transition in Q1 2026 by taking delivery of three new E175 aircraft, finalizing the conversion of 38 E170 aircraft to newer E175 models for United Airlines. This modernization aligns its capacity more closely with partner demand. The company continues to bolster its long-term capacity purchase agreements with major U.S. carriers, including American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and United Airlines, with contracts averaging over two decades in duration. Republic also holds firm orders for 26 additional E175 aircraft for delivery between 2028 and 2030, with a recently renegotiated schedule providing enhanced financial flexibility.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 33.5% change in RJET stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 26.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 17.20 | 22.97 | 33.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,260 | 1,557 | 23.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.5 | 0.7 | 26.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 39 | 46 | -14.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 33.5% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RJET | 33.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 38.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 5.0% | 24.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RJET | ||
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 34.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 12.4% | 25.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RJET | ||
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 34.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 33.8% | 25.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RJET | ||
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 34.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 81.1% | 25.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RJET Return | - | - | - | - | -12% | 22% | 7% |
| Peers Return | -18% | -18% | 6% | 965% | 25% | 1% | 861% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 7% | 95% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RJET Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 0% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 45% | 42% | 65% | 57% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RJET Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -15% | -10% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -44% | -27% | -29% | -34% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DAL, UAL, JBLU, LUV, LTM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/8/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
RJET has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 45 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -20.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 125 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.1% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -11.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 62 days |
In The Past
State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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RJET has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -20.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 125 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.1% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 105 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -22.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 700 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Republic Airways (RJET)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Republic Airways (RJET) is like:
- A 'white-label' airline; they fly planes under the brands of major airlines like United or Delta for their regional routes.
- A contract manufacturer like Foxconn, but for airline flights; they operate the planes, but the customers see the United Express or Delta Connection brand.
- The regional delivery service for Amazon or UPS, but for passenger flights; they operate routes under the United Express or Delta Connection brand.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Fixed-Fee Regional Airline Services: Republic Airways operates scheduled passenger flights for major airlines under their brand names (e.g., United Express, Delta Connection), receiving a fixed fee for these services.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlRepublic Airways (RJET) primarily sells its services to other companies. Its major customers are large airlines for which it operates regional flights under contract.
- United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (Symbol: UAL) - Republic Airways operates regional flights under the "United Express" brand.
- Delta Air Lines, Inc. (Symbol: DAL) - Republic Airways operates regional flights under the "Delta Connection" brand.
- American Airlines Group Inc. (Symbol: AAL) - Republic Airways operates regional flights under the "US Airways Express" and "American Eagle" brands.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Bombardier Inc. (BBD.B)
- Embraer S.A. (ERJ)
- General Electric Company (GE)
- Raytheon Technologies Corporation (RTX)
AI Analysis | Feedback
David Grizzle, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the BoardDavid Grizzle has served as Chief Executive Officer of Republic Airways since July 2, 2025, and as Chairman of its Board of Directors since May 2017. Prior to his current role, he engaged as an aviation consultant through his firm, Dazzle Partners, since 2013. Mr. Grizzle's experience also includes serving as Chief Operating Officer of the FAA's Air Traffic Organization from 2011 to 2013, and Chief Counsel of the FAA from 2009 to 2011. Before his time with the FAA, he spent 22 years at Continental Airlines, Inc. and its affiliates, where he retired as Senior Vice President of Customer Experience. In 2004, Mr. Grizzle also served with the U.S. Department of State in Kabul, Afghanistan, as Attaché, Senior Advisor, and Coordinator for Transportation and Infrastructure.
Joe Allman, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial OfficerJoe Allman joined Republic Airways in July 2007 as Director of Finance, and was promoted to Vice President and Controller in June 2009. He was named Chief Financial Officer in 2015. A Certified Public Accountant, Mr. Allman gained extensive finance, accounting, and audit experience in managing positions with London Witte Group LLC and Deloitte and Touche LLP before joining Republic. He is a graduate of the U.S. Coast Guard Academy. As CFO, he led the financial restructuring of the company during its Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2016, overseeing significant streamlining efforts.
Matt Koscal, President and Chief Commercial OfficerMatt Koscal joined Republic Airways in April 2014 as Vice President of Human Resources, later assuming responsibility for labor relations and government affairs in 2015. He became Executive Vice President in 2022 and continued his leadership path as President of Republic Airways in 2025. Mr. Koscal has been a key leader in Republic's workforce development initiatives, including the launch of LIFT Academy and the airline's strategic partnership with Cape Air. He has extensive experience in creating value through commercial partnerships, leading complex negotiations, and driving change initiatives.
Paul Kinstedt, Senior Vice President and Chief Operating OfficerPaul Kinstedt began his tenure with a Republic Airways Holdings subsidiary, Chautauqua Airlines, in January 2002 as Director of System Operations Control. He was promoted to Vice President of System Operations Control in September 2006, and later became Vice President of Flight Operations in January 2013. In 2017, Mr. Kinstedt's role expanded to Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer for Republic Airways. He holds an aircraft dispatcher certification and a commercial, multi-engine, and instrument pilot rating.
Chad Pulley, Senior Vice President - General Counsel and Corporate SecretaryChad Pulley joined Republic Airways in July 2018 as Associate General Counsel. He transitioned to Vice President, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary in 2020, where he is responsible for codeshare relations, corporate compliance, regulatory matters, and government affairs. In 2022, his role expanded to Senior Vice President, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary, taking on additional responsibility for the airline's labor relations and corporate communications and marketing teams.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Key Risks to Republic Airways (RJET)
- Intense Competition and Reliance on Capacity Purchase Agreements: Republic Airways operates within a highly competitive regional airline market and its business model is heavily dependent on securing and maintaining capacity purchase agreements (CPAs) with major carriers like American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and United Airlines. The necessity for continuous efforts to secure and retain these vital agreements poses a significant ongoing risk to its growth trajectory and overall business stability.
- Exposure to Operational Disruptions in Congested Hubs: A substantial portion of Republic Airways' operations is concentrated in dense hubs and the Northeast corridor, including cities such as New York, Washington, and Boston. This geographic mix elevates the airline's vulnerability to air traffic control bottlenecks and congestion-driven delays, which can lead to operational disruptions even when the airline's internal operations are otherwise strong. Such disruptions can impact service reliability, a critical factor in maintaining strong relationships with its major airline partners.
- Regulatory Shifts and Labor Challenges: The company faces risks from regulatory changes, particularly those concerning pilot qualifications and environmental standards, which could impose additional operational and financial demands. While not explicitly stated as a separate current dominant risk, the regional airline sector commonly experiences labor challenges, especially related to pilot availability. Republic Airways addresses these challenges through investments in pilot training programs like the LIFT Academy, indicating this is an ongoing area of focus.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The clear emerging threat for Republic Airways is a growing shortage of qualified pilots. This issue, exacerbated by new regulations (such as the 1,500-hour rule implemented in 2013 for first officers) and increasing demand from mainline carriers, directly threatens regional airlines' ability to staff flights, fulfill contracts with major partners, and operate their fleets efficiently. It leads to increased labor costs, potential flight cancellations, and difficulty in maintaining or expanding service, posing a fundamental challenge to their business model.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The addressable market for Republic Airways' main products or services is the North American regional airline market.
The North American regional airline market was valued at approximately USD 12.8 billion in 2024. This market size encompasses both the United States and Canada, where Republic Airways primarily operates its scheduled passenger services under agreements with major airlines.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Republic Airways (RJET) is expected to experience future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years driven by several key factors, primarily stemming from its recent merger and its core business model. Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth:- Expanded Fleet and Network from Mesa Air Group Merger: The successful completion of the merger with Mesa Air Group on November 25, 2025, significantly expanded Republic Airways' operational scale. The combined entity now boasts the world's largest Embraer jet fleet, comprising 310 E-Jets, and supports over 1,300 daily departures to more than 100 cities across the U.S., Canada, the Caribbean, and Central America. This larger fleet and expanded network provide an immediate increase in capacity for revenue generation.
- New 10-Year Capacity Purchase Agreement (CPA) with United Airlines: A crucial aspect of the Mesa Air Group merger was the establishment of a new 10-year Capacity Purchase Agreement with United Airlines, under which the Mesa Airlines subsidiary will operate. This long-term, stable contract with a major airline partner provides a predictable and significant revenue stream for the combined company over the next decade.
- Optimization and Synergies from Merger Integration: While Republic and Mesa will initially maintain parallel operations, the combined company is working towards consolidating into a single carrier. This integration process is anticipated to unlock operational efficiencies and synergies. These could include cost savings, improved resource utilization, and enhanced network planning, which can translate into more competitive service offerings and ultimately drive revenue growth through optimized operations.
- Sustained Demand under Existing Capacity Purchase Agreements: Republic Airways continues to operate under its existing capacity purchase agreements with American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and United Airlines. The regional airline business model relies heavily on these fixed-fee contracts with major carriers. Continued strong demand for regional feeder services from these airline partners will remain a fundamental driver of stable and growing revenue for Republic Airways.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Issuance
- The merger with Mesa Air Group in November 2025 was an all-stock transaction, resulting in Republic stockholders owning a majority of the combined company's common stock.
- United Airlines gained 2.74 million Republic Airways shares via escrow, holding a 22.3% stake in the company.
Inbound Investments
- Republic Airways Holdings Inc. completed a transformative debt-free merger with Mesa Air Group, Inc. in November 2025, adding 60 Embraer 175 aircraft to Republic's fleet.
- United Airlines holds a 22.3% stake in Republic Airways, which includes a $51.7 million escrow value.
Capital Expenditures
- For the full year 2025, total capital expenditures, inclusive of aircraft, rotable spare parts, and pre-delivery deposits, amounted to $410.7 million.
- The 2025 capital expenditures included the delivery of 12 new E175 aircraft from Embraer and the conversion of eight E170 aircraft to 65-seat configurations under agreements with United Airlines and American Airlines.
- Projected capital expenditures for the full year 2026 are approximately $90 million.
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to RJET.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04172026 | RSG | Republic Services | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.1% |
| 04102026 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.3% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | UHAL | U-Haul | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.3% | 0.3% | -1.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 46.24 |
| Mkt Cap | 17.6 |
| Rev LTM | 21,941 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,792 |
| FCF LTM | 31 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -112 |
| CFO LTM | 2,401 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,060 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 25.4% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 63.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -2.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 17.6 |
| P/S | 0.7 |
| P/Op Inc | 6.0 |
| P/EBIT | 5.7 |
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/CFO | 5.1 |
| Total Yield | 7.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -16.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 17.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 32.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 86.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -23.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 9.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 4.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 1.5% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/4/2026 | -4.6% | -6.0% | -18.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | -4.6% | -6.0% | -18.9% |
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | -4.6% | -6.0% | -18.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 07/11/2025 | S-4 |
| 09/30/2016 | 10/20/2016 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2016 | 07/26/2016 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2016 | 05/10/2016 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2015 | 03/11/2016 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2015 | 11/05/2015 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2015 | 08/07/2015 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2015 | 05/08/2015 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2014 | 02/27/2015 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2014 | 10/29/2014 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2014 | 08/07/2014 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2014 | 05/01/2014 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2013 | 03/11/2014 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2013 | 11/08/2013 | 10-Q |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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