Republic Airways (RJET)
Market Price (12/24/2025): $20.75 | Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines
Republic Airways (RJET)
Market Price (12/24/2025): $20.75Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Airlines
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.1% |
| Key risksRJET key risks include [1] significant financial leverage, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.1% |
| Key risksRJET key risks include [1] significant financial leverage, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
**1. Return to Public Trading on NASDAQ**The most significant factor for Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET) stock movement was its return to the NASDAQ exchange on November 25, 2025, following the completion of its merger with Arizona-based Mesa Air Group. This marked its re-entry into the public market after being a privately held company since emerging from Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2017. **2. Strategic Merger with Mesa Air Group**
The all-stock merger with Mesa Air Group created a larger, combined entity, with Republic shareholders owning approximately 88% of the merged company and Mesa shareholders holding between 6% and 12%, subject to final settlement of pre-closing obligations. This strategic move aimed to consolidate operations and enhance market position. **3. Expanded Fleet and Operations**
The combined company now operates approximately 310 Embraer 170/175 aircraft, establishing it as one of the largest regional airlines in the US with over 1,250 daily departures. This significant expansion of its operational footprint and fleet size contributes to its market valuation. **4. Strengthened Capacity Purchase Agreements**
Following the merger, Republic Airways continues to operate under existing agreements with American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and United Airlines. Furthermore, Mesa Airlines brought a new 10-year capacity purchase agreement with United Airlines, enhancing revenue stability and long-term contracts for the combined entity. **5. Mesa Air Group's Improved Financial Performance**
Prior to the merger, Mesa Air Group reported a notable turnaround in its financial health, including a Q3 2025 net income of $20.9 million, reversing a previous loss from Q3 2024. The company also reduced its total debt significantly while transitioning to a single fleet, which likely contributed positively to the market's perception of the newly merged public company. Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
9/23/2025 to 12/23/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RJET | ||
| Market (SPY) | 3.7% | 8.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 2.6% | 3.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
6/24/2025 to 12/23/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RJET | ||
| Market (SPY) | 13.7% | 8.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 8.7% | 3.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/23/2024 to 12/23/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RJET | ||
| Market (SPY) | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 19.1% | 3.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/24/2023 to 12/23/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RJET | ||
| Market (SPY) | 48.4% | 8.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 42.3% | 3.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RJET Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 114% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RJET Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RJET Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: UAL, AL, JBLU, CAKR, RJET.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/23/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
RJET has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 273 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 232 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 312 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 172.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,463 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -22.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2022. A -22.6% loss requires a 29.2% gain to breakeven.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Republic Airways (RJET):
- The 'Foxconn' of regional air travel, operating flights for major airlines like Delta and United under their brand names.
- A 'white-label' flight operator for major airlines, providing regional routes under brands such as American Eagle, Delta Connection, and United Express.
- The 'local bottler' for major airlines, handling regional flights under brands like Delta Connection and American Eagle.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Regional Passenger Air Transportation: Republic Airways operates scheduled passenger flights on behalf of major airlines like American, Delta, and United, under their respective regional brands (e.g., American Eagle, Delta Connection, United Express).
AI Analysis | Feedback
Major Customers of Republic Airways (RJET)
Republic Airways (RJET) is a regional airline holding company that operates flights primarily for other major airlines under contract. Therefore, its major customers are other companies.
- American Airlines (Symbol: AAL) - Republic Airways operates flights as American Eagle for American Airlines.
- Delta Air Lines (Symbol: DAL) - Republic Airways operates flights as Delta Connection for Delta Air Lines.
- United Airlines (Symbol: UAL) - Republic Airways operates flights as United Express for United Airlines.
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- Embraer S.A. (NYSE: ERJ)
- General Electric Company (NYSE: GE)
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David Grizzle, Chief Executive Officer & Chairman of the Board
David Grizzle has served as Chief Executive Officer of Republic Airways since July 2, 2025, and as Chairman of the Board of Directors since May 2017. Prior to his CEO appointment, he worked as an aviation consultant through his firm, Dazzle Partners, starting in 2013. He also held positions as Chief Operating Officer of the FAA's Air Traffic Organization (2011-2013) and Chief Counsel of the FAA (2009-2011). Before his time with the FAA, Mr. Grizzle spent 22 years at Continental Airlines, Inc. and its affiliates, where he retired as Senior Vice President of Customer Experience. In 2004, he served 14 months with the U.S. Department of State in Kabul, Afghanistan.
Joe Allman, Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Joe Allman joined Republic Airways in July 2007 as Director of Finance, advancing to Vice President and Controller in June 2009, and was named Chief Financial Officer in 2015. A certified public accountant, he brought extensive finance, accounting, and audit experience from managing positions with London Witte Group LLC and Deloitte and Touche LLP, working with clients in the airline and utilities sectors. Mr. Allman is a graduate of the U.S. Coast Guard Academy, holding a B.S. in management. He was instrumental in leading the financial restructuring of the company during its Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2016.
Matt Koscal, President
Matt Koscal became President of Republic Airways in 2025, following a planned transition. He initially joined Republic in April 2014 as Vice President of Human Resources, later expanding his responsibilities to include labor relations and government affairs in 2015, and becoming Executive Vice President in 2022. Mr. Koscal has been a key leader in the company's workforce development initiatives, including the establishment of LIFT Academy and the airline's strategic partnership with Cape Air.
Paul Kinstedt, Senior Vice President & Chief Operating Officer
Paul Kinstedt has served as Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. He joined Chautauqua Airlines, a subsidiary of Republic Airways Holdings, in January 2002 as Director of Systems Operations Control. He was later promoted to Vice President of System Operations Control for the company's three wholly-owned subsidiaries in September 2006. Before his tenure at Chautauqua, Mr. Kinstedt held positions as Vice President of Customer Service and Director of Flight Control for Midway Airlines.
Chad Pulley, Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
Chad Pulley joined Republic Airways in July 2018 as Associate General Counsel. He was promoted to Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary in 2020, taking charge of codeshare relations, corporate compliance, regulatory matters, and government affairs. In 2022, his role expanded to Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary, also encompassing labor relations and corporate communications and marketing teams. Prior to Republic, Mr. Pulley served as lead counsel for Carrier’s North America Residential HVAC business.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Republic Airways (RJET) primarily stem from its financial leverage, ongoing labor relations challenges, and its inherent dependence on contractual agreements with major airline partners.
- High Debt Levels and Financial Health: Republic Airways faces significant financial risk due to its substantial debt. As of December 31, 2024, the company reported a debt balance of $1 billion and planned to debt finance 15 new E175 aircraft in 2025. Furthermore, an Altman Z-Score of 1.07 (where a score under 3 suggests an increased risk of bankruptcy) and a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.01 indicate considerable financial leverage and potential vulnerability. The company previously filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2016, partly attributed to nearly $3 billion in debt.
- Labor Disputes and Pilot Shortages: Historically, Republic Airways has been significantly impacted by labor disputes, particularly with its pilots. A dispute with the International Brotherhood of Teamsters (IBT) led to pilot attrition, recruiting difficulties, and the grounding of a substantial portion of its fleet, causing revenue losses and higher costs, and ultimately contributing to its 2016 bankruptcy filing. While the recent merger with Mesa Air Group aims for more efficient crew resource management, the regional airline industry generally continues to face challenges related to pilot staffing and labor negotiations.
- Dependence on Major Airline Partners and Contractual Agreements: As a regional carrier, Republic Airways derives substantially all of its revenue from code-share agreements with major airlines such as Delta, American Airlines, and United Airlines. The highly competitive airline industry means that Republic Airways not only competes with other regional airlines but also faces competition from major and low-fare airlines on many routes. Disruptions, disputes, or the termination of these critical code-share agreements could have a material adverse effect on the company's financial position, results of operations, and cash flows.
AI Analysis | Feedback
A clear emerging threat for Republic Airways is the ongoing and intensifying **pilot shortage**.
Evidence for this threat is widespread and impacts the entire airline industry, particularly regional carriers like Republic Airways. The shortage has led to:
- **Flight reductions and cancellations:** Many regional airlines, including RJET's partners, have been forced to cut routes or frequency due to insufficient pilot availability.
- **Increased labor costs:** Airlines are engaging in bidding wars for qualified pilots, offering higher wages, bonuses, and improved benefits, directly impacting operating expenses.
- **Significant investment in pilot training programs:** Republic Airways itself has invested heavily in its Leadership in Flight Training (LIFT) Academy to create its own pipeline of pilots, indicating the severity of the challenge in sourcing talent externally.
This situation directly threatens RJET's core business model, which relies on fulfilling capacity purchase agreements with major carriers. The inability to adequately staff flights can lead to contractual penalties, reduced revenue, and challenges in maintaining or expanding their fleet and network for their partners. It represents a fundamental shift in the availability and cost of a critical operational resource, compelling the company to adapt its recruitment and retention strategies or face significant operational constraints.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Republic Airways (RJET) operates as a regional airline, providing scheduled passenger service through fixed-fee, capacity purchase agreements with major network carriers such as American Airlines (as American Eagle), Delta Air Lines (as Delta Connection), and United Airlines (as United Express). Their main products or services are these regional airline operations and feeder services to larger airline hubs.
The addressable markets for Republic Airways' services are primarily within the United States and North America:
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U.S. Domestic Airlines Industry: The market size of the Domestic Airlines industry in the United States is projected to reach approximately $243.8 billion in 2025. Another estimate for the US aviation market size stands at USD 86.72 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 105.00 billion by 2030. Civil and commercial operators held a 64.45% share of the US aviation market in 2024. The US aviation market size is also projected to grow from USD 84.98 billion in 2024 to USD 122.82 billion by 2035.
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North American Regional Jet Market: Republic Airways exclusively operates Embraer 170/175 regional jets. The regional jet market in North America, which dominated the global market with a 36.13% share in 2023, was valued at USD 4.56 billion in 2023 and grew from USD 4.28 billion in 2022. The global regional jet market size was valued at USD 12.62 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to USD 19.58 billion by 2032.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Republic Airways (RJET)
Over the next 2-3 years, Republic Airways (RJET) is expected to drive future revenue growth through several key initiatives:
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Strategic Merger and Enhanced Market Presence: The planned merger with Mesa Air Group, Inc., anticipated to conclude in late Q3 or early Q4 of 2025, is a pivotal expansion initiative designed to create a larger, more dominant force in the regional airline industry. This consolidation is expected to bolster operational capacity and market presence, contributing to increased revenue generation. The combined entity is projected to operate a fleet of approximately 310 aircraft.
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Fleet Modernization and Expansion: Republic Airways is set to enhance its fleet with the delivery of 15 new Embraer 175 aircraft in 2025. This fleet modernization is crucial for maintaining operational efficiency and meeting growing demand, directly supporting revenue growth. Furthermore, the integration with Mesa Air Group will add another 60 Embraer 175 aircraft to the combined fleet, significantly expanding its operational scale.
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Operational Synergies and Efficiency Gains: The merger with Mesa Air Group is expected to yield substantial value creation for shareholders, with projected pretax margins for the combined entity in the range of 7% to 9%. This focus on profitability and operational efficiency is likely to free up resources and enhance competitiveness, which can indirectly drive revenue growth through better service offerings and optimized operations.
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Continued Leverage of Fixed-Fee Agreements with Major Carriers: Republic Airways' business model relies on long-term, fixed-fee agreements with global airline partners in the United States, Canada, and the Caribbean. Historically, these agreements have limited the company's exposure to volatile market factors such as fuel prices, fare competition, and passenger volumes. The company's ongoing focus on providing efficient and effective solutions to its partners is expected to maintain and potentially grow revenue from these stable contractual relationships.
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Share Issuance
- Republic Airways Holdings announced an all-stock merger with Mesa Airlines, where Republic shareholders are expected to own approximately 88% of the combined company's common shares upon closing.
- Mesa shareholders will own between 6% and 12% of the combined company's common shares, contingent on Mesa's fulfillment of certain pre-closing conditions.
Outbound Investments
- Republic Airways Holdings announced its acquisition of Mesa Airlines in an all-stock merger on April 7, 2025.
- The transaction is anticipated to conclude in either the late third or early fourth quarter of 2025, subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals.
Capital Expenditures
- Republic expects to receive 15 new E175 aircraft deliveries in 2025.
- All expected aircraft deliveries in 2025 are planned to be financed through debt.
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to RJET. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.7% | 17.7% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.4% | 4.4% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.3% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 6.3% | 6.3% | -0.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Republic Airways
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 42.35 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.2 |
| Rev LTM | 6,002 |
| Op Inc LTM | 429 |
| FCF LTM | -608 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -639 |
| CFO LTM | 986 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 984 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -4.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -10.8% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/24/2025 | � | � | |
| 8/13/2025 | |||
| 5/14/2025 | |||
| 10/16/2024 | |||
| 5/20/2024 | |||
| 1/26/2024 | |||
| 8/14/2023 | |||
| 5/10/2023 | |||
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| # Negative | 17 | 17 | 18 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | � | � | |
| Max Negative | |||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12312024 | 7112025 | S-4 12/31/2024 |
| 9302016 | 10202016 | 10-Q 9/30/2016 |
| 6302016 | 7262016 | 10-Q 6/30/2016 |
| 3312016 | 5102016 | 10-Q 3/31/2016 |
| 12312015 | 3112016 | 10-K 12/31/2015 |
| 9302015 | 11052015 | 10-Q 9/30/2015 |
| 6302015 | 8072015 | 10-Q 6/30/2015 |
| 3312015 | 5082015 | 10-Q 3/31/2015 |
| 12312014 | 2272015 | 10-K 12/31/2014 |
| 9302014 | 10292014 | 10-Q 9/30/2014 |
| 6302014 | 8072014 | 10-Q 6/30/2014 |
| 3312014 | 5012014 | 10-Q 3/31/2014 |
| 12312013 | 3112014 | 10-K 12/31/2013 |
| 9302013 | 11082013 | 10-Q 9/30/2013 |
| 6302013 | 8022013 | 10-Q 6/30/2013 |
| 3312013 | 4302013 | 10-Q 3/31/2013 |
External Quote Links
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| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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