Semtech (SMTC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $78.15 | Market Cap: $6.8 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
Semtech (SMTC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $78.15Market Cap: $6.8 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.8%, Dist 3Y High is -4.8% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 72x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 164x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.6% | |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -29% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.8%, Dist 3Y High is -4.8% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 72x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 164x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.6% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SMTC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Semtech (SMTC) stock moved by 26.5% from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Strong Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings Beat.
Semtech announced its third quarter fiscal year 2026 results on November 24, 2025, reporting record net sales of $267.0 million, representing 13% year-over-year growth. The company also achieved a GAAP gross margin of 51.9% and a Non-GAAP gross margin of 53.0%. This positive financial performance, including a narrowed net loss to $2.9 million, surpassed analyst expectations and signaled robust operational execution.
2. Record Growth and Strategic Focus on AI Data Center Solutions.
A significant driver was the record data center sales, which reached $56.2 million in Q3 FY2026, marking a 30% year-over-year increase. Semtech is strategically positioning itself in the booming artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure market with its 1.6T Receiver Optical Engines and CopperEdge technology for Active Copper Cables (ACCs). The company secured a major design win with a leading hyperscaler for its AI-enabling technology, with ramp-up expected in 2026, further reinforcing its role in high-growth segments.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SMTC Return | 36% | 23% | -68% | -24% | 182% | 18% | 38% |
| Peers Return | 28% | 42% | -19% | 27% | -6% | 5% | 84% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SMTC Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 25% | 50% | 67% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 53% | 28% | 52% | 37% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SMTC Max Drawdown | -49% | -19% | -71% | -53% | -16% | -61% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -35% | -1% | -30% | -4% | -13% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMAT, TXN, ON, SWKS, AMBQ. See SMTC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SMTC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -85.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 585.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -50.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 103.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 81 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -33.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 437 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -58.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 138.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 707 days | 1480 days |
Compare to AMAT, TXN, ON, SWKS, AMBQ
In The Past
Semtech's stock fell -85.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -85.4% loss requires a 585.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SMTC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 03312023 | SMTC | Semtech | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.7% | 13.9% | -44.4% |
| 06302022 | SMTC | Semtech | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -47.9% | -53.7% | -67.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 03312023 | SMTC | Semtech | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.7% | 13.9% | -44.4% |
| 06302022 | SMTC | Semtech | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -47.9% | -53.7% | -67.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Semtech
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 71.41 |
| Mkt Cap | 23.7 |
| Rev LTM | 5,243 |
| Op Inc LTM | 823 |
| FCF LTM | 1,182 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,446 |
| CFO LTM | 1,566 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,135 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -4.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 26.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 27.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 23.7 |
| P/S | 3.9 |
| P/EBIT | 26.8 |
| P/E | 33.1 |
| P/CFO | 19.0 |
| Total Yield | 5.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 11.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 7.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 13.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -4.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 12.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 11.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -1.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -19.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -57.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internet of things (IoT) Systems and Connectivity | 431 | 15 | 0 | ||
| Analog Mixed Signal and Wireless | 260 | 443 | 455 | ||
| Signal Integrity | 177 | 298 | 286 | ||
| Internet of things (IoT) System Products Group | 0 | ||||
| High-Performance Analog Group | 433 | ||||
| System Protection Group | 162 | ||||
| Semiconductor Products Group | 548 | ||||
| Total | 869 | 757 | 741 | 595 | 548 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 8262025 | 10-Q 7/27/2025 |
| 4302025 | 5292025 | 10-Q 4/27/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3252025 | 10-K 1/26/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12032024 | 10-Q 10/27/2024 |
| 7312024 | 8282024 | 10-Q 7/28/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6052024 | 10-Q 4/28/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3282024 | 10-K 1/28/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12062023 | 10-Q 10/29/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9132023 | 10-Q 7/30/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6072023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3302023 | 10-K 1/29/2023 |
| 10312022 | 11302022 | 10-Q 10/30/2022 |
| 7312022 | 8312022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6012022 | 10-Q 5/1/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3162022 | 10-K 1/30/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12012021 | 10-Q 10/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Silberstein Asaf | EVP and COO | 9022025 | Sell | 60.00 | 1,000 | 60,000 | 6,299,760 | Form |
| 1 | Fischer Gregory Michael | 9022025 | Sell | 58.25 | 1,268 | 73,862 | 240,168 | Form | |
| 2 | Silberstein Asaf | EVP and COO | 6262025 | Sell | 42.49 | 1,000 | 42,490 | 4,546,260 | Form |
| 3 | Cardenuto Rodolpho C | 6202025 | Sell | 41.82 | 13,123 | 548,743 | Form | ||
| 4 | Lin Mark | EVP and CFO | 1312025 | Sell | 59.26 | 2,476 | 146,729 | 353,193 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |