Soleno Therapeutics (SLNO)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $52.39 | Market Cap: $2.8 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Soleno Therapeutics (SLNO)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $52.39Market Cap: $2.8 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -12% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -84 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -85% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Biotechnology & Genomics. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -26% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.3% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -12% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Biotechnology & Genomics. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -84 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -85% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -26% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.3% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SLNO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Following an approximate -22.2% movement in Soleno Therapeutics (SLNO) stock between August 31, 2025, and December 5, 2025, several key factors contributed to this decline:
1. Impact of Short-Seller Report and Subsequent Volatility: On August 15, 2025, a short-seller report from Scorpion Capital raised significant concerns regarding the safety profile and demand sustainability of VYKAT™ XR, Soleno's key product, as well as the company's overall business model. This report led to substantial stock volatility, with the share price declining by nearly 40% between August 14, 2025, and November 5, 2025.
2. Q3 2025 Financial Results and Slowdown in VYKAT™ XR Uptake: Despite reporting strong third-quarter 2025 financial results with increased revenue and profitability on November 4, 2025, Soleno Therapeutics' management acknowledged a slowdown in new VYKAT™ XR treatment initiations and an increase in therapy discontinuations due to non-serious adverse events. This news, suggesting a cooling demand for their key product, caused the stock to plunge approximately 31% on November 5, 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SLNO Return | -34% | -79% | 383% | 1933% | 12% | 17% | 1692% |
| Peers Return | 6% | -1% | -7% | -13% | -25% | 3% | -34% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SLNO Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 33% | 67% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 29% | 21% | 25% | 27% | 15% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SLNO Max Drawdown | -45% | -79% | -65% | -7% | -10% | -5% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -10% | -17% | -24% | -25% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, ACSB, ALPS, APRI, BBOT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SLNO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -95.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2215.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 337 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -61.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 162.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 922 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -63.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 174.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 314 days | 120 days |
Compare to VRTX, ACSB, ALPS, APRI, BBOT
In The Past
Soleno Therapeutics's stock fell -95.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/8/2021. A -95.7% loss requires a 2215.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SLNO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Soleno Therapeutics
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 32.11 |
| Mkt Cap | 59.9 |
| Rev LTM | 99 |
| Op Inc LTM | -92 |
| FCF LTM | -26 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,015 |
| CFO LTM | -26 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,193 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 102.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -43.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 26.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 243.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 2.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 59.9 |
| P/S | 22.5 |
| P/EBIT | -13.1 |
| P/E | -9.4 |
| P/CFO | -56.1 |
| Total Yield | 0.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.6% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 14.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -13.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 1.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 2,684.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 9.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -28.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -11.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 2,519.9% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3072024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8102022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3312022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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