Grocery Outlet (GO)
Market Price (4/10/2026): $7.02 | Market Cap: $689.2 MilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Food Retail
Grocery Outlet (GO)
Market Price (4/10/2026): $7.02Market Cap: $689.2 MilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Food Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -57% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Sustainable Resource Management, and Value-Oriented Consumerism. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -106%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -141% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 252% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -37% Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 24% Key risksGO key risks include [1] significant operational disruptions and a class-action lawsuit stemming from a problematic technology platform transition, Show more. |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -57% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Sustainable Resource Management, and Value-Oriented Consumerism. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -106%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -141% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 252% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -37% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 24% |
| Key risksGO key risks include [1] significant operational disruptions and a class-action lawsuit stemming from a problematic technology platform transition, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Disappointing Q4 2025 Financial Results and Substantial Impairment Charges.
Grocery Outlet reported a net loss of $218.2 million, or $(2.22) per diluted share, for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, a significant decline compared to a net income of $2.3 million, or $0.02 per diluted share, in the prior year. This loss was largely driven by $259.2 million in non-cash impairment charges, which included $149.0 million for goodwill impairment and $110.2 million for long-lived asset impairments. The company's adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.19 also missed analysts' consensus estimates of $0.21 by $0.02.
2. Weak Fiscal Year 2026 Guidance and Negative Comparable Store Sales Forecast.
The company provided a cautious financial outlook for fiscal year 2026, projecting adjusted diluted earnings per share to be between $0.45 and $0.55, which is notably below the $0.76 delivered in fiscal year 2025 and analyst expectations. Management further forecast comparable store sales to be between -2% and flat for fiscal 2026, with a more immediate projection of -2.5% to -1.5% for the first quarter of 2026, signaling continued operational challenges.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -30.5% change in GO stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -32.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.10 | 7.02 | -30.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,571 | 4,689 | 2.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.2 | 0.1 | -32.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 98 | 98 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -30.5% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GO | -30.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 0.1% |
| Sector (XLP) | 7.4% | 38.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -56.3% change in GO stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -57.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 16.05 | 7.02 | -56.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,511 | 4,689 | 3.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.3 | 0.1 | -57.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 98 | 98 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -56.3% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GO | -56.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 4.2% |
| Sector (XLP) | 7.3% | 36.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -49.8% change in GO stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -52.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.98 | 7.02 | -49.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,372 | 4,689 | 7.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.3 | 0.1 | -52.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 97 | 98 | -0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -49.8% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GO | -49.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 5.0% |
| Sector (XLP) | 4.4% | 33.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -75.2% change in GO stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -80.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 28.26 | 7.02 | -75.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,578 | 4,689 | 31.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.8 | 0.1 | -80.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 97 | 98 | -0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -75.2% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GO | -75.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 6.8% |
| Sector (XLP) | 20.5% | 32.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GO Return | -28% | 3% | -8% | -42% | -35% | -30% | -82% |
| Peers Return | 27% | -5% | 14% | 6% | 28% | -1% | 84% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 81% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GO Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 50% | 33% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 50% | 63% | 42% | 58% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GO Max Drawdown | -46% | -14% | -10% | -48% | -37% | -43% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -20% | -21% | -19% | -24% | -9% | -9% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: OLLI, DG, DLTR, COST, BJ. See GO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/9/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -53.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 117.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -21.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
Compare to OLLI, DG, DLTR, COST, BJ
In The Past
Grocery Outlet's stock fell -53.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/27/2021. A -53.9% loss requires a 117.1% gain to breakeven.
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About Grocery Outlet (GO)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Grocery Outlet (GO):
- It's like the TJ Maxx or Marshalls of grocery stores.
- Imagine a Big Lots, but focused primarily on deeply discounted groceries and fresh produce.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Grocery Outlet (GO) offers a variety of consumer products. Its major product categories include:- Dairy and Deli products: This category encompasses a range of refrigerated items such as milk, cheese, yogurt, and prepared deli meats.
- Produce: Customers can purchase fresh fruits and vegetables.
- Floral: The company provides flowers and other related plant products.
- Fresh meat and seafood products: This includes uncooked meats and various types of seafood.
- Grocery: This broad category covers packaged and shelf-stable food items.
- General merchandise: Non-food items for household use and other general purposes are available.
- Health and beauty care: Products for personal hygiene, cosmetics, and wellness are offered.
- Frozen foods: A selection of pre-packaged food items kept frozen for preservation.
- Beer and wine: Alcoholic beverages including various types of beer and wine.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Grocery Outlet (GO) primarily sells directly to **individuals** through its network of independently operated stores.
The company serves up to three main categories of customers:
- Budget-Conscious Consumers: These customers are primarily driven by the desire to save money on their grocery bills. They actively seek out discounted prices and deals to maximize their purchasing power for everyday essentials.
- Value-Oriented Shoppers: This category includes consumers who appreciate acquiring name-brand or quality products at significant discounts. They are looking for the "best value" for their money and are often attracted by the opportunity to buy premium items at reduced prices.
- "Treasure Hunt" Shoppers: These customers enjoy the unique and constantly changing inventory inherent in Grocery Outlet's opportunistic buying model. They are often less concerned with a specific shopping list and more with the excitement of discovering unexpected bargains on a wide range of products, from specialty foods to general merchandise.
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Jason Potter, President and Chief Executive Officer
Jason Potter assumed the role of President and Chief Executive Officer of Grocery Outlet in February 2025. He brings over 30 years of experience in the grocery retail industry. Prior to joining Grocery Outlet, he served as CEO and a board member at The Fresh Market from March 2020 to January 2025, where he was instrumental in transforming the business and driving earnings growth. Before his time at The Fresh Market, Potter spent 26 years at Sobeys Inc., a Canadian national grocery retailer, holding various operational and leadership positions including Executive Vice President of Operations, President of Sobeys West, President of Sobeys Atlantic, and President of Multi-Format Operations, overseeing a base of over 1,500 stores with more than $12 billion in revenues.
Christopher Miller, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Christopher Miller was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Grocery Outlet, effective January 6, 2025. He joined Grocery Outlet from Shamrock Foods Co., where he served as CFO for nearly two years. Before Shamrock Foods, Miller dedicated over 15 years to Core-Mark Holding Co., taking on various financial and leadership roles, including Executive Vice President and CFO, and Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer. His professional background also includes finance and accounting positions at retail and consumer products companies such as Cost Plus World Market, Levi Strauss & Co., and Hermès.
Eric J. Lindberg, Jr., Chairman of the Board
Eric Lindberg currently serves as the Chairman of the Board for Grocery Outlet. He has a long history with the company, having started his career at Grocery Outlet in 1996. Lindberg served as co-CEO alongside MacGregor Read starting in 2006, then as sole CEO from 2019 until January 2023, and later as interim President and CEO from October 2024 to February 2025. During his leadership, he guided Grocery Outlet through its transition from a family-owned business to a private company backed by private equity firms Berkshire Partners and Hellman & Friedman, and ultimately to a publicly traded company in 2019. Under his direction, the company saw its store count increase by over 250% and net sales grow by nearly 500%.
Frank Kerr, Executive Vice President, Chief Store Operations Officer
Frank Kerr was appointed Executive Vice President, Chief Store Operations Officer, effective September 15, 2025. He brings more than a decade of progressive leadership experience in the grocery retail sector. Prior to joining Grocery Outlet, Kerr was with Lidl US, where he held the positions of Senior Vice President, Operations, and Chief Customer Officer, overseeing the company's expansion into the U.S. market. He also previously served as Vice President of Retail Operations for Save A Lot.
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Here are the key risks to Grocery Outlet's business:- Financial Performance and Operational Challenges: Grocery Outlet is facing significant financial headwinds, including reported operating and net losses, and a decline in comparable store sales. This is largely attributed to operational challenges, such as a "botched" technology transition in mid-2023 that impacted inventory management and gross margins. The company has also acknowledged an overly aggressive expansion strategy, leading to the closure of 36 underperforming stores and a significant restructuring plan to optimize operations and improve profitability.
- Litigation and Investor Uncertainty: The company is currently under investigation by several law firms for potential securities-law violations related to its prior guidance adjustments and financial disclosures. This has increased litigation risk and contributed to investor uncertainty, following disappointing financial results and a sharp decline in stock price.
- Intense Competition and Macroeconomic Headwinds: Grocery Outlet operates in a highly competitive grocery retail sector. It faces aggressive competition from other discount grocers like Aldi and Lidl, who are rapidly expanding, as well as larger retailers such as Walmart and Costco. Additionally, macroeconomic factors, including persistent inflation and shifts in consumer spending patterns, continue to impact the company's performance as consumers prioritize value.
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The addressable markets for Grocery Outlet's main products and services in the U.S. are substantial across several key categories.
- Grocery (including dairy, deli, produce, floral, fresh meat and seafood, frozen foods, and general grocery): The U.S. supermarkets and grocery stores industry is projected to reach $912.4 billion in 2026. Total sales for supermarkets in the U.S. were $1 trillion in 2024. Additionally, the U.S. packaged food and beverage market alone was valued at $980.8 billion in 2024. The broader U.S. food and grocery retail market was valued at USD 1,872.4 billion in 2023.
- Beer and Wine: The U.S. alcoholic drinks market was valued at approximately USD 315 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 350 billion by 2030. Another estimate places the U.S. alcoholic beverages market at US$ 543.13 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach US$ 806.44 billion in 2033.
- Health and Beauty Care: The U.S. beauty and personal care products market was valued at USD 136.03 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 195.83 billion by 2033. Similarly, another report estimated the market size at USD 130.25 billion in 2025, forecasted to reach USD 154.35 billion by 2030. The U.S. body care market specifically was valued at USD 16.18 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 20.11 billion by 2030.
- General Merchandise: Null
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Grocery Outlet (GO) over the next 2-3 years:- New Store Expansion and Strategic Acquisitions: Grocery Outlet continues to pursue disciplined expansion through new store openings, aiming to leverage significant "white space" opportunities across the United States. In early 2024, the company acquired United Grocery Outlet (UGO), adding 40 stores and a distribution center, which notably accelerated its presence in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. The company plans for additional net new store openings in fiscal years 2025 and 2026, focusing on existing and high-priority adjacent markets to enhance sales productivity and return on invested capital.
- Re-emphasis on Opportunistic Buying and Value Proposition: After acknowledging some deviations that impacted performance, Grocery Outlet is actively restoring its core "treasure hunt" model. This involves intensely focusing on securing a wide and deep assortment of quality opportunistic, branded products to reinforce its winning value proposition with customers. This strategy is expected to drive increased traffic and sales by appealing to value-conscious shoppers.
- Expansion of Private Label Brands ("GO Brands"): The company launched its "GO Brands" (including SimplyGO, Go Home & Haven, and GO Paw & Pamper) in 2024, introducing over 180 new private label SKUs. Plans are in place to add approximately 150 more in 2025. This initiative aims to enhance the "treasure hunt" experience, provide greater value to customers, strengthen customer loyalty, and ultimately improve margins.
- Operational and Technology Enhancements: Grocery Outlet has invested in significant system upgrades across product, inventory, financial, and reporting platforms, starting in late August 2023. While these initially caused some disruptions, they are designed to streamline daily operations, improve data management, and enhance inventory visibility through tools like a real-time order guide for independent operators. These technological advancements are expected to boost operational efficiency and support long-term growth.
- Store Refreshes and Portfolio Optimization: The company is undertaking a strategic initiative to refresh approximately 150 stores and is proactively closing 36 underperforming locations, primarily in the East, to optimize its store portfolio. These actions, particularly the closures, are anticipated to yield an annualized adjusted EBITDA improvement of approximately $12 million. By improving the performance and efficiency of its existing store base, coupled with strategic refreshes, Grocery Outlet aims to drive more sustainable and profitable revenue growth.
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Share Repurchases
- Grocery Outlet's board of directors approved a new share repurchase program on November 5, 2024, authorizing up to $100.0 million in share repurchases.
- This new program superseded a previous share repurchase program adopted in 2021, under which $9.4 million remained available.
- The 2024 Share Repurchase Program is effective immediately and has no expiration date.
Share Issuance
- In April 2020, there was a $587 million secondary offering of 17,250,000 shares of common stock by certain existing stockholders of Grocery Outlet.
Outbound Investments
- Grocery Outlet acquired United Grocery Outlet (UGO), a discount grocery retailer, for approximately $62 million. The acquisition was announced in February 2024 and closed in April 2024.
- This acquisition added 40 stores and a distribution center, expanding Grocery Outlet's market presence into Tennessee, North Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Kentucky, and Virginia.
- The acquisition was expected to be modestly accretive to the company's 2024 earnings.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures, net of tenant improvement allowances, were $191.9 million for fiscal year 2025, an increase from $185.7 million in fiscal year 2024. This increase was primarily driven by additional new store openings and increased supply chain investments.
- For fiscal year 2026, Grocery Outlet forecasts capital expenditures to be approximately $170 million.
- The company's capital expenditures are primarily focused on new store openings (planning 30 to 33 net new stores in fiscal 2026), store refresh programs (targeting 150 stores by the end of 2026), and supply chain investments.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Grocery Outlet Stock Pre-Market (-25%) : Q4 Miss, Guidance Slashed, Store Closures | 03/05/2026 | |
| Grocery Outlet Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| How Does GO Stock Compare With Its Peers Right Now? | 08/22/2025 | |
| Grocery Outlet (GO) Debt Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Grocery Outlet (GO) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Grocery Outlet (GO) Net Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Grocery Outlet (GO) Operating Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Grocery Outlet (GO) EBITDA Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Grocery Outlet (GO) Tax Expense Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Grocery Outlet (GO) Revenue Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | 03/05/2026 | |
| GO Stock in Focus: Does It Outshine the Peer Group? | 08/21/2025 | |
| Market Movers | Winners: GO, VSAT, ALAB | Losers: BLMN, LNTH, EOLS | 08/07/2025 | |
| Why Has Grocery Outlet Stock Been Trending Lower After A Strong IPO? | 12/04/2019 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to GO.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03272026 | MZTI | Marzetti | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.8% | -0.8% | -1.1% |
| 03272026 | OLLI | Ollie's Bargain Outlet | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 03202026 | KHC | Kraft Heinz | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.3% | 4.3% | -1.7% |
| 03202026 | KMB | Kimberly-Clark | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.8% | -1.8% | -1.9% |
| 11302024 | GO | Grocery Outlet | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -35.3% | -47.0% | -51.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 98.13 |
| Mkt Cap | 16.3 |
| Rev LTM | 20,435 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,250 |
| FCF LTM | 864 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 739 |
| CFO LTM | 1,782 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,788 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 6.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 16.3 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| P/EBIT | 13.5 |
| P/E | 19.3 |
| P/CFO | 9.9 |
| Total Yield | 4.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -7.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -17.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -4.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | -4.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -8.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -15.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 7.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -34.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -69.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $7.02 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/20/2019 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -62.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $8.16 | $12.32 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -14.0% | -43.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 77.2% | 66.8% |
| Downside Capture | 0.83 | 0.59 |
| Upside Capture | 5.74 | -0.38 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 1.8% | 5.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.84 | -0.09 | 0.01 | 0.21 | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| Up Beta | 6.70 | 3.15 | 1.76 | 0.08 | 0.37 | 0.56 |
| Down Beta | -3.56 | -2.44 | -1.67 | -0.49 | -0.42 | -0.17 |
| Up Capture | -276% | -63% | -30% | -41% | 3% | -1% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 28 | 56 | 114 | 371 |
| Down Capture | 170% | 116% | 134% | 142% | 89% | 79% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 22 | 34 | 69 | 136 | 375 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GO | -50.1% | 66.7% | -0.79 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 10.0% | 13.4% | 0.46 | 34.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.1% | 17.4% | 1.36 | 5.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 61.3% | 27.8% | 1.72 | 3.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 26.9% | 16.7% | 1.41 | 1.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 17.7% | 15.4% | 0.86 | 15.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -10.9% | 43.9% | -0.14 | 6.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GO | -28.4% | 49.0% | -0.51 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 6.9% | 13.2% | 0.30 | 31.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.4% | 17.0% | 0.52 | 14.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.2% | 17.8% | 1.02 | 3.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.5% | 18.8% | 0.50 | 1.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.7% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 19.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 3.6% | 56.5% | 0.29 | 6.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GO | -13.2% | 47.2% | -0.27 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.4% | 14.7% | 0.37 | 29.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.9% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 17.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.1% | 15.9% | 0.74 | 6.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.5% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 2.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 18.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.1% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 8.7% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/4/2026 | -27.9% | -29.5% | -17.9% |
| 11/4/2025 | -8.0% | -18.9% | -20.0% |
| 8/5/2025 | 42.7% | 42.1% | 39.2% |
| 5/6/2025 | -6.1% | -16.0% | -15.6% |
| 2/25/2025 | -30.2% | -28.1% | -18.0% |
| 10/30/2024 | -16.3% | -12.3% | 27.9% |
| 8/6/2024 | 5.9% | 3.8% | -8.3% |
| 5/7/2024 | -19.4% | -21.1% | -17.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 10 | 10 |
| # Negative | 17 | 14 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 5.9% | 3.2% | 13.5% |
| Median Negative | -6.4% | -12.6% | -16.1% |
| Max Positive | 42.7% | 42.1% | 39.2% |
| Max Negative | -30.2% | -29.5% | -20.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 03/04/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/11/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 New Store Openings | 30 | 31.5 | 33 | -14.9% | Lower New | Actual: 37 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue | 4.60 Bil | 4.66 Bil | 4.72 Bil | -1.1% | Lower New | Actual: 4.71 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Comparable Store Sales Growth | -2.0% | -1.0% | 0.0% | -233.3% | -1.8% | Lower New | Actual: 0.75% for 2025 |
| 2026 Gross Margin | 29.7% | 29.85% | 30.0% | -1.6% | -0.5% | Lower New | Actual: 30.35% for 2025 |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 220.00 Mil | 227.50 Mil | 235.00 Mil | -12.5% | Lower New | Actual: 260.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 EPS | 0.45 | 0.5 | 0.55 | -36.7% | Lower New | Actual: 0.79 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 170.00 Mil | -19.0% | Lower New | Actual: 210.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Restructuring Charges | 14.00 Mil | 19.50 Mil | 25.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Restructuring Cash Expenditures | 51.00 Mil | 57.00 Mil | 63.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Bad Debt Expense | 11.00 Mil | 12.50 Mil | 14.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Gross Profit Impact | -6.00 Mil | -5.00 Mil | -4.00 Mil | ||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/4/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 New store openings, net | 37 | 8.8% | Raised | Guidance: 34 for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Revenue | 4.70 Bil | 4.71 Bil | 4.72 Bil | -0.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 4.75 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Comparable store sales increase | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | -50.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 0.01 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Operating Margin | 30.3% | 30.35% | 30.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | Raised | Guidance: 30.25% for 2025 |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 258.00 Mil | 260.00 Mil | 262.00 Mil | -1.9% | Lowered | Guidance: 265.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 EPS | 0.78 | 0.79 | 0.8 | 1.9% | Raised | Guidance: 0.78 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Capital Expenditures | 210.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 210.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wilson, Steven K | EVP, Chief Purchasing Officer | Direct | Sell | 11102025 | 12.53 | 25,000 | 313,250 | 1,465,045 | Form |
| 2 | Wilson, Steven K | EVP, Chief Purchasing Officer | Direct | Sell | 8192025 | 18.24 | 5,000 | 91,200 | 2,588,676 | Form |
| 3 | Wilson, Steven K | EVP, Chief Purchasing Officer | Direct | Sell | 8112025 | 19.20 | 20,000 | 384,000 | 2,820,922 | Form |
| 4 | Thompson, Luke D | EVP, GC and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 5222025 | 13.77 | 1,368 | 18,837 | 410,332 | Form |
| 5 | Ragatz, Erik D | LLC (see footnote) | Buy | 5122025 | 14.46 | 19,000 | 274,740 | 274,740 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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