Tearsheet

Grocery Outlet (GO)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $10.255 | Market Cap: $1.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Food Retail

Grocery Outlet (GO)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $10.255
Market Cap: $1.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Food Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Sustainable Resource Management, and Value-Oriented Consumerism. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more.
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -108%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -134%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 112%
1   Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 55x
2   Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.1%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.4%
4   Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 24%
5   Key risks
GO key risks include [1] significant operational disruptions and a class-action lawsuit stemming from a problematic technology platform transition, Show more.
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Sustainable Resource Management, and Value-Oriented Consumerism. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -108%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -134%
2 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 112%
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 55x
4 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.1%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.4%
6 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 24%
7 Key risks
GO key risks include [1] significant operational disruptions and a class-action lawsuit stemming from a problematic technology platform transition, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

GO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The stock of Grocery Outlet (GO) experienced a significant downturn from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, with a reported decline of 43.3%. Several key factors contributed to this stock movement.

1. Weak Comparable Store Sales Growth and Lowered Outlook: Grocery Outlet reported mixed financial results throughout the latter half of 2025. While Q2 2025 earnings beat estimates and net sales increased, comparable store sales growth was 1.1% and fell short of management's expectations in Q3 2025 at 1.2%. The company subsequently lowered its comparable store sales growth forecast for fiscal 2025 multiple times, first to 1.0-2.0% from 2.0-3.0% in Q1 2025, then to 0.6-0.9% in Q3, and later to approximately flat for Q4 2025. This consistent underperformance in comparable sales indicated a struggle to attract consumer purchases and highlighted concerns about the company's growth ambition.

2. Impact of U.S. Government Shutdown on EBT Sales: A U.S. government shutdown significantly impacted Grocery Outlet's sales in November 2025. The disruption to federally funded assistance programs, such as SNAP, led to an 8.2% decline in comparable store sales paid with Electronic Benefits Transfer (EBT) cards. Non-EBT transactions also saw a decline of 0.5% during the shutdown, indicating a broader pressure on its value-sensitive customer base. This directly contributed to the company adjusting its outlook for Q4 and the full fiscal year 2025 to the low end of previous forecasts.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
GO Return21%-28%3%-8%-42%-35%-69%
Peers Return35%27%-5%14%6%31%158%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GO Win Rate58%50%58%50%33%42% 
Peers Win Rate55%62%50%63%42%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GO Max Drawdown-10%-46%-14%-10%-48%-35% 
Peers Max Drawdown-22%-20%-21%-19%-24%-9% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: OLLI, DG, DLTR, COST, BJ. See GO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventGOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-53.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven117.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-21.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven26.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days

Compare to KR, DG, DT, DNUT, CASY


In The Past

Grocery Outlet's stock fell -53.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/27/2021. A -53.9% loss requires a 117.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Grocery Outlet (GO)

Better Bets than Grocery Outlet (GO)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to GO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.9%-5.9%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
15.4%15.4%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.7%6.7%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.7%-3.7%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.9%-5.9%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
15.4%15.4%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.7%6.7%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.7%-3.7%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Grocery Outlet

Peers to compare with:

Financials

GOOLLIDGDLTRCOSTBJMedian
NameGrocery .Ollie's .Dollar G.Dollar T.Costco W.BJ's Who. 
Mkt Price10.27109.35136.97128.35862.6595.91118.85
Mkt Cap1.07.930.126.1383.012.619.3
Rev LTM4,5712,53742,11818,961275,23521,16020,061
Op Inc LTM713041,8921,49210,3838451,169
FCF LTM-521542,3391,2127,837250731
FCF 3Y Avg-41231,4811,0417,070258650
CFO LTM1892623,6202,37613,3359111,644
CFO 3Y Avg2042362,9812,57611,9148111,694

Growth & Margins

GOOLLIDGDLTRCOSTBJMedian
NameGrocery .Ollie's .Dollar G.Dollar T.Costco W.BJ's Who. 
Rev Chg LTM7.2%12.6%4.9%156.4%8.2%2.8%7.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg10.1%12.6%5.1%20.3%6.6%4.1%8.4%
Rev Chg Q5.4%18.6%4.6%9.4%8.1%4.9%6.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.3%3.9%1.1%2.2%2.4%1.2%1.8%
Op Mgn LTM1.5%12.0%4.5%7.9%3.8%4.0%4.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg2.3%11.6%5.5%13.2%3.6%4.0%4.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.4%-0.0%0.2%-0.1%0.0%-0.1%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM4.1%10.3%8.6%12.5%4.8%4.3%6.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg4.9%10.5%7.3%22.5%4.6%4.0%6.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-1.1%6.1%5.6%6.4%2.8%1.2%4.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg0.0%5.4%3.6%9.1%2.7%1.3%3.2%

Valuation

GOOLLIDGDLTRCOSTBJMedian
NameGrocery .Ollie's .Dollar G.Dollar T.Costco W.BJ's Who. 
Mkt Cap1.07.930.126.1383.012.619.3
P/S0.33.10.71.41.50.61.0
P/EBIT55.2-15.916.537.515.416.5
P/E-354.835.223.6-8.950.721.922.7
P/CFO8.330.18.311.030.813.812.4
Total Yield-0.3%2.8%5.1%-11.2%2.2%4.6%2.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.9%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-1.4%-7.0%5.8%2.1%2.4%2.4%
D/E1.1-0.50.30.00.20.3
Net D/E1.1-0.50.3-0.00.20.3

Returns

GOOLLIDGDLTRCOSTBJMedian
NameGrocery .Ollie's .Dollar G.Dollar T.Costco W.BJ's Who. 
1M Rtn-7.7%-11.0%32.8%23.8%-5.5%3.5%-1.0%
3M Rtn-39.0%-20.2%29.8%31.3%-10.3%-3.4%-6.8%
6M Rtn-21.3%-9.1%23.3%31.6%-11.3%-11.4%-10.2%
12M Rtn-39.8%-4.9%84.9%83.1%-11.7%-1.7%-3.3%
3Y Rtn-66.2%118.0%-41.5%-10.0%94.8%40.3%15.1%
1M Excs Rtn-8.5%-11.8%32.1%23.1%-6.2%2.8%-1.7%
3M Excs Rtn-40.8%-22.3%27.6%29.3%-10.6%-3.3%-7.0%
6M Excs Rtn-33.7%-21.5%10.9%19.2%-23.6%-23.8%-22.6%
12M Excs Rtn-57.3%-14.1%71.5%72.0%-23.4%-12.7%-13.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-133.7%38.9%-109.1%-79.4%15.9%-33.0%-56.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Non-perishable2,5652,3062,0122,0801,692
Perishable1,4041,2721,0671,055868
Total3,9693,5783,0803,1352,560


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity23,981,022
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520258.6%
Average Daily Volume2,501,085
Days-to-Cover Short Interest9.59
Basic Shares Quantity98,160,000
Short % of Basic Shares24.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/4/2025-8.0%-18.9%-20.0%
8/5/202542.7%42.1%39.2%
5/6/2025-6.1%-16.0%-15.6%
2/25/2025-30.2%-28.1%-18.0%
10/30/2024-16.3%-12.3%27.9%
8/6/20245.9%3.8%-8.3%
5/7/2024-19.4%-21.1%-17.5%
2/27/2024-1.2%1.1%9.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive81011
# Negative171514
Median Positive5.5%3.2%9.8%
Median Negative-6.1%-12.3%-15.8%
Max Positive42.7%42.1%39.2%
Max Negative-30.2%-28.1%-20.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/27/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/28/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/29/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/28/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/28/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/29/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/30/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/30/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 7/1/2023
3312023510202310-Q 4/1/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 10/1/2022
6302022810202210-Q 7/2/2022
3312022511202210-Q 4/2/2022
12312021302202210-K 1/1/2022