Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Sustainable Resource Management, and Value-Oriented Consumerism. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more.
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -110%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -135%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 112%
1   Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 55x
2   Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.1%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.4%
4   Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 23%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Sustainable Resource Management, and Value-Oriented Consumerism. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -110%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -135%
2 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 112%
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 55x
4 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.1%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.4%
6 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 23%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

GO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points contributing to the significant movement in Grocery Outlet (GO) stock for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Mixed Q3 2025 Earnings and Trimmed Comparable Sales Outlook: On November 4, 2025, Grocery Outlet reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, which were mixed. While adjusted earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates, the company's net sales fell short of expectations. More significantly, comparable-store sales growth also underperformed management's targets, with a slowdown in the latter part of the quarter attributed to ineffective promotional strategies and marketing execution.

2. Downward Revision of Fiscal Year 2025 Guidance: Following the Q3 results, Grocery Outlet revised its fiscal 2025 guidance downwards. The company narrowed its net sales outlook and lowered its projections for comparable-store sales growth from an earlier range of 1-2% to 0.6-0.9%. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was also reduced. These revisions were a direct reflection of softer comparable sales trends and promotional challenges experienced late in the quarter.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
GO Return21%-28%3%-8%-42%-28%-65%
Peers Return26%22%-12%15%1%6%66%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GO Win Rate58%50%58%50%33%50% 
Peers Win Rate52%64%48%53%48%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GO Max Drawdown-10%-46%-14%-10%-48%-34% 
Peers Max Drawdown-13%-5%-27%-15%-23%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: KR, DG, DT, DNUT, CASY. See GO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventGOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-53.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven117.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-21.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven26.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days

Compare to KR, DG, DT, DNUT, CASY


In The Past

Grocery Outlet's stock fell -53.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/27/2021. A -53.9% loss requires a 117.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Grocery Outlet (GO)

Better Bets than Grocery Outlet (GO)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to GO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.1%3.1%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.9%-1.9%-1.9%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.3%-5.3%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.5%3.5%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.1%2.1%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.1%3.1%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.9%-1.9%-1.9%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.3%-5.3%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.5%3.5%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.1%2.1%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Grocery Outlet

Peers to compare with:

Financials

GOKRDGDTDNUTCASYMedian
NameGrocery .Kroger Dollar G.DynatraceKrispy K.Casey's . 
Mkt Price11.3166.20109.8944.454.34555.3055.33
Mkt Cap1.143.824.213.40.720.617.0
Rev LTM4,571147,00041,6521,8531,53416,41010,491
Op Inc LTM713,9251,790226-58850538
FCF LTM-522,2121,850473-99666570
FCF 3Y Avg-42,2681,211413-70476445
CFO LTM1896,0183,158507161,182844
CFO 3Y Avg2046,1142,74644150987714

Growth & Margins

GOKRDGDTDNUTCASYMedian
NameGrocery .Kroger Dollar G.DynatraceKrispy K.Casey's . 
Rev Chg LTM7.2%-2.1%5.0%18.5%-10.4%8.7%6.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg10.1%0.7%5.7%21.2%1.2%4.9%5.3%
Rev Chg Q5.4%0.1%5.1%18.1%-1.2%11.5%5.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.3%0.0%1.3%4.3%-0.3%2.9%1.3%
Op Mgn LTM1.5%2.7%4.3%12.2%-3.8%5.2%3.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg2.3%2.4%5.9%10.4%-0.7%4.8%3.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.4%0.0%0.1%0.9%0.9%0.2%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM4.1%4.1%7.6%27.4%1.0%7.2%5.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg4.9%4.1%6.8%28.0%3.0%6.4%5.7%
FCF/Rev LTM-1.1%1.5%4.4%25.5%-6.4%4.1%2.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg0.0%1.5%3.0%26.3%-4.3%3.1%2.3%

Valuation

GOKRDGDTDNUTCASYMedian
NameGrocery .Kroger Dollar G.DynatraceKrispy K.Casey's . 
Mkt Cap1.143.824.213.40.720.617.0
P/S0.30.30.67.90.41.20.5
P/EBIT55.211.914.164.7-1.422.318.2
P/E-354.817.421.128.9-1.332.619.3
P/CFO8.37.98.028.841.516.012.2
Total Yield-0.3%7.6%5.8%3.5%-74.4%3.5%3.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.9%1.0%0.0%2.7%0.4%0.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-1.4%6.0%4.5%2.8%-7.0%3.5%3.1%
D/E1.10.50.70.02.20.20.6
Net D/E1.10.40.6-0.12.10.10.5

Returns

GOKRDGDTDNUTCASYMedian
NameGrocery .Kroger Dollar G.DynatraceKrispy K.Casey's . 
1M Rtn-20.6%4.9%10.8%-11.9%17.9%8.1%6.5%
3M Rtn-37.8%-2.4%0.8%-11.5%31.1%11.3%-0.8%
6M Rtn-17.0%0.8%-0.6%-17.8%46.1%24.2%0.1%
12M Rtn-42.9%12.6%42.6%-22.4%-59.7%33.6%-4.9%
3Y Rtn-63.1%48.8%-52.2%13.8%-71.6%141.1%-19.2%
1M Excs Rtn-20.5%4.9%10.8%-11.9%18.0%8.1%6.5%
3M Excs Rtn-42.9%-7.2%-3.4%-16.0%22.3%6.2%-5.3%
6M Excs Rtn-31.7%-13.9%-15.3%-32.6%31.4%9.4%-14.6%
12M Excs Rtn-59.7%-3.0%32.3%-34.4%-73.7%19.0%-18.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-135.4%-27.8%-126.7%-51.9%-143.6%62.1%-89.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Non-perishable2,5652,3062,0122,0801,692
Perishable1,4041,2721,0671,055868
Total3,9693,5783,0803,1352,560


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity22,091,931
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120251.6%
Average Daily Volume3,570,952
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.19
Basic Shares Quantity98,160,000
Short % of Basic Shares22.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/27/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/28/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/29/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/28/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/28/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/29/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/30/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/30/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 7/1/2023
3312023510202310-Q 4/1/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 10/1/2022
6302022810202210-Q 7/2/2022
3312022511202210-Q 4/2/2022
12312021302202210-K 1/1/2022