Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -57%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Sustainable Resource Management, and Value-Oriented Consumerism. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -106%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -141%

Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 252%

Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -37%

Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 24%

Key risks
GO key risks include [1] significant operational disruptions and a class-action lawsuit stemming from a problematic technology platform transition, Show more.

0 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -57%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Sustainable Resource Management, and Value-Oriented Consumerism. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -106%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -141%
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 252%
4 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -37%
5 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 24%
6 Key risks
GO key risks include [1] significant operational disruptions and a class-action lawsuit stemming from a problematic technology platform transition, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Grocery Outlet (GO) stock has lost about 30% since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Disappointing Q4 2025 Financial Results and Substantial Impairment Charges.

Grocery Outlet reported a net loss of $218.2 million, or $(2.22) per diluted share, for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, a significant decline compared to a net income of $2.3 million, or $0.02 per diluted share, in the prior year. This loss was largely driven by $259.2 million in non-cash impairment charges, which included $149.0 million for goodwill impairment and $110.2 million for long-lived asset impairments. The company's adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.19 also missed analysts' consensus estimates of $0.21 by $0.02.

2. Weak Fiscal Year 2026 Guidance and Negative Comparable Store Sales Forecast.

The company provided a cautious financial outlook for fiscal year 2026, projecting adjusted diluted earnings per share to be between $0.45 and $0.55, which is notably below the $0.76 delivered in fiscal year 2025 and analyst expectations. Management further forecast comparable store sales to be between -2% and flat for fiscal 2026, with a more immediate projection of -2.5% to -1.5% for the first quarter of 2026, signaling continued operational challenges.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -30.5% change in GO stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -32.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)123120254092026Change
Stock Price ($)10.107.02-30.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)4,5714,6892.6%
P/S Multiple0.20.1-32.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)98980.0%
Cumulative Contribution-30.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/31/2025 to 4/9/2026
ReturnCorrelation
GO-30.5% 
Market (SPY)-5.4%0.1%
Sector (XLP)7.4%38.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The -56.3% change in GO stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -57.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)93020254092026Change
Stock Price ($)16.057.02-56.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)4,5114,6893.9%
P/S Multiple0.30.1-57.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)9898-0.1%
Cumulative Contribution-56.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/30/2025 to 4/9/2026
ReturnCorrelation
GO-56.3% 
Market (SPY)-2.9%4.2%
Sector (XLP)7.3%36.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The -49.8% change in GO stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -52.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)33120254092026Change
Stock Price ($)13.987.02-49.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)4,3724,6897.3%
P/S Multiple0.30.1-52.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)9798-0.8%
Cumulative Contribution-49.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2025 to 4/9/2026
ReturnCorrelation
GO-49.8% 
Market (SPY)16.3%5.0%
Sector (XLP)4.4%33.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The -75.2% change in GO stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -80.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)33120234092026Change
Stock Price ($)28.267.02-75.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)3,5784,68931.0%
P/S Multiple0.80.1-80.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)9798-0.7%
Cumulative Contribution-75.2%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2023 to 4/9/2026
ReturnCorrelation
GO-75.2% 
Market (SPY)63.3%6.8%
Sector (XLP)20.5%32.5%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
GO Return-28%3%-8%-42%-35%-30%-82%
Peers Return27%-5%14%6%28%-1%84%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%-1%81%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GO Win Rate50%58%50%33%42%50% 
Peers Win Rate62%50%63%42%58%55% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GO Max Drawdown-46%-14%-10%-48%-37%-43% 
Peers Max Drawdown-20%-21%-19%-24%-9%-9% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-7% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: OLLI, DG, DLTR, COST, BJ. See GO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/9/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventGOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-53.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven117.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-21.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven26.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days

Compare to OLLI, DG, DLTR, COST, BJ

In The Past

Grocery Outlet's stock fell -53.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/27/2021. A -53.9% loss requires a 117.1% gain to breakeven.

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About Grocery Outlet (GO)

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. owns and operates a network of independently operated stores in the United States. The company's stores offer products in various categories, such as dairy and deli, produce, floral, and fresh meat and seafood products, as well as grocery, general merchandise, health and beauty care, frozen foods, and beer and wine. As of March 1, 2022, it had approximately 410 stores in California, Washington, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Idaho, Nevada, and New Jersey. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Emeryville, California.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Grocery Outlet (GO):

  • It's like the TJ Maxx or Marshalls of grocery stores.
  • Imagine a Big Lots, but focused primarily on deeply discounted groceries and fresh produce.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Grocery Outlet (GO) offers a variety of consumer products. Its major product categories include:
  • Dairy and Deli products: This category encompasses a range of refrigerated items such as milk, cheese, yogurt, and prepared deli meats.
  • Produce: Customers can purchase fresh fruits and vegetables.
  • Floral: The company provides flowers and other related plant products.
  • Fresh meat and seafood products: This includes uncooked meats and various types of seafood.
  • Grocery: This broad category covers packaged and shelf-stable food items.
  • General merchandise: Non-food items for household use and other general purposes are available.
  • Health and beauty care: Products for personal hygiene, cosmetics, and wellness are offered.
  • Frozen foods: A selection of pre-packaged food items kept frozen for preservation.
  • Beer and wine: Alcoholic beverages including various types of beer and wine.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Grocery Outlet (GO) primarily sells directly to **individuals** through its network of independently operated stores.

The company serves up to three main categories of customers:

  1. Budget-Conscious Consumers: These customers are primarily driven by the desire to save money on their grocery bills. They actively seek out discounted prices and deals to maximize their purchasing power for everyday essentials.
  2. Value-Oriented Shoppers: This category includes consumers who appreciate acquiring name-brand or quality products at significant discounts. They are looking for the "best value" for their money and are often attracted by the opportunity to buy premium items at reduced prices.
  3. "Treasure Hunt" Shoppers: These customers enjoy the unique and constantly changing inventory inherent in Grocery Outlet's opportunistic buying model. They are often less concerned with a specific shopping list and more with the excitement of discovering unexpected bargains on a wide range of products, from specialty foods to general merchandise.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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Jason Potter, President and Chief Executive Officer

Jason Potter assumed the role of President and Chief Executive Officer of Grocery Outlet in February 2025. He brings over 30 years of experience in the grocery retail industry. Prior to joining Grocery Outlet, he served as CEO and a board member at The Fresh Market from March 2020 to January 2025, where he was instrumental in transforming the business and driving earnings growth. Before his time at The Fresh Market, Potter spent 26 years at Sobeys Inc., a Canadian national grocery retailer, holding various operational and leadership positions including Executive Vice President of Operations, President of Sobeys West, President of Sobeys Atlantic, and President of Multi-Format Operations, overseeing a base of over 1,500 stores with more than $12 billion in revenues.

Christopher Miller, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Christopher Miller was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Grocery Outlet, effective January 6, 2025. He joined Grocery Outlet from Shamrock Foods Co., where he served as CFO for nearly two years. Before Shamrock Foods, Miller dedicated over 15 years to Core-Mark Holding Co., taking on various financial and leadership roles, including Executive Vice President and CFO, and Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer. His professional background also includes finance and accounting positions at retail and consumer products companies such as Cost Plus World Market, Levi Strauss & Co., and Hermès.

Eric J. Lindberg, Jr., Chairman of the Board

Eric Lindberg currently serves as the Chairman of the Board for Grocery Outlet. He has a long history with the company, having started his career at Grocery Outlet in 1996. Lindberg served as co-CEO alongside MacGregor Read starting in 2006, then as sole CEO from 2019 until January 2023, and later as interim President and CEO from October 2024 to February 2025. During his leadership, he guided Grocery Outlet through its transition from a family-owned business to a private company backed by private equity firms Berkshire Partners and Hellman & Friedman, and ultimately to a publicly traded company in 2019. Under his direction, the company saw its store count increase by over 250% and net sales grow by nearly 500%.

Frank Kerr, Executive Vice President, Chief Store Operations Officer

Frank Kerr was appointed Executive Vice President, Chief Store Operations Officer, effective September 15, 2025. He brings more than a decade of progressive leadership experience in the grocery retail sector. Prior to joining Grocery Outlet, Kerr was with Lidl US, where he held the positions of Senior Vice President, Operations, and Chief Customer Officer, overseeing the company's expansion into the U.S. market. He also previously served as Vice President of Retail Operations for Save A Lot.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key risks to Grocery Outlet's business:
  1. Financial Performance and Operational Challenges: Grocery Outlet is facing significant financial headwinds, including reported operating and net losses, and a decline in comparable store sales. This is largely attributed to operational challenges, such as a "botched" technology transition in mid-2023 that impacted inventory management and gross margins. The company has also acknowledged an overly aggressive expansion strategy, leading to the closure of 36 underperforming stores and a significant restructuring plan to optimize operations and improve profitability.
  2. Litigation and Investor Uncertainty: The company is currently under investigation by several law firms for potential securities-law violations related to its prior guidance adjustments and financial disclosures. This has increased litigation risk and contributed to investor uncertainty, following disappointing financial results and a sharp decline in stock price.
  3. Intense Competition and Macroeconomic Headwinds: Grocery Outlet operates in a highly competitive grocery retail sector. It faces aggressive competition from other discount grocers like Aldi and Lidl, who are rapidly expanding, as well as larger retailers such as Walmart and Costco. Additionally, macroeconomic factors, including persistent inflation and shifts in consumer spending patterns, continue to impact the company's performance as consumers prioritize value.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

The addressable markets for Grocery Outlet's main products and services in the U.S. are substantial across several key categories.

  • Grocery (including dairy, deli, produce, floral, fresh meat and seafood, frozen foods, and general grocery): The U.S. supermarkets and grocery stores industry is projected to reach $912.4 billion in 2026. Total sales for supermarkets in the U.S. were $1 trillion in 2024. Additionally, the U.S. packaged food and beverage market alone was valued at $980.8 billion in 2024. The broader U.S. food and grocery retail market was valued at USD 1,872.4 billion in 2023.
  • Beer and Wine: The U.S. alcoholic drinks market was valued at approximately USD 315 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 350 billion by 2030. Another estimate places the U.S. alcoholic beverages market at US$ 543.13 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach US$ 806.44 billion in 2033.
  • Health and Beauty Care: The U.S. beauty and personal care products market was valued at USD 136.03 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 195.83 billion by 2033. Similarly, another report estimated the market size at USD 130.25 billion in 2025, forecasted to reach USD 154.35 billion by 2030. The U.S. body care market specifically was valued at USD 16.18 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 20.11 billion by 2030.
  • General Merchandise: Null

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Grocery Outlet (GO) over the next 2-3 years:
  1. New Store Expansion and Strategic Acquisitions: Grocery Outlet continues to pursue disciplined expansion through new store openings, aiming to leverage significant "white space" opportunities across the United States. In early 2024, the company acquired United Grocery Outlet (UGO), adding 40 stores and a distribution center, which notably accelerated its presence in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. The company plans for additional net new store openings in fiscal years 2025 and 2026, focusing on existing and high-priority adjacent markets to enhance sales productivity and return on invested capital.
  2. Re-emphasis on Opportunistic Buying and Value Proposition: After acknowledging some deviations that impacted performance, Grocery Outlet is actively restoring its core "treasure hunt" model. This involves intensely focusing on securing a wide and deep assortment of quality opportunistic, branded products to reinforce its winning value proposition with customers. This strategy is expected to drive increased traffic and sales by appealing to value-conscious shoppers.
  3. Expansion of Private Label Brands ("GO Brands"): The company launched its "GO Brands" (including SimplyGO, Go Home & Haven, and GO Paw & Pamper) in 2024, introducing over 180 new private label SKUs. Plans are in place to add approximately 150 more in 2025. This initiative aims to enhance the "treasure hunt" experience, provide greater value to customers, strengthen customer loyalty, and ultimately improve margins.
  4. Operational and Technology Enhancements: Grocery Outlet has invested in significant system upgrades across product, inventory, financial, and reporting platforms, starting in late August 2023. While these initially caused some disruptions, they are designed to streamline daily operations, improve data management, and enhance inventory visibility through tools like a real-time order guide for independent operators. These technological advancements are expected to boost operational efficiency and support long-term growth.
  5. Store Refreshes and Portfolio Optimization: The company is undertaking a strategic initiative to refresh approximately 150 stores and is proactively closing 36 underperforming locations, primarily in the East, to optimize its store portfolio. These actions, particularly the closures, are anticipated to yield an annualized adjusted EBITDA improvement of approximately $12 million. By improving the performance and efficiency of its existing store base, coupled with strategic refreshes, Grocery Outlet aims to drive more sustainable and profitable revenue growth.

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Share Repurchases

  • Grocery Outlet's board of directors approved a new share repurchase program on November 5, 2024, authorizing up to $100.0 million in share repurchases.
  • This new program superseded a previous share repurchase program adopted in 2021, under which $9.4 million remained available.
  • The 2024 Share Repurchase Program is effective immediately and has no expiration date.

Share Issuance

  • In April 2020, there was a $587 million secondary offering of 17,250,000 shares of common stock by certain existing stockholders of Grocery Outlet.

Outbound Investments

  • Grocery Outlet acquired United Grocery Outlet (UGO), a discount grocery retailer, for approximately $62 million. The acquisition was announced in February 2024 and closed in April 2024.
  • This acquisition added 40 stores and a distribution center, expanding Grocery Outlet's market presence into Tennessee, North Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Kentucky, and Virginia.
  • The acquisition was expected to be modestly accretive to the company's 2024 earnings.

Capital Expenditures

  • Capital expenditures, net of tenant improvement allowances, were $191.9 million for fiscal year 2025, an increase from $185.7 million in fiscal year 2024. This increase was primarily driven by additional new store openings and increased supply chain investments.
  • For fiscal year 2026, Grocery Outlet forecasts capital expenditures to be approximately $170 million.
  • The company's capital expenditures are primarily focused on new store openings (planning 30 to 33 net new stores in fiscal 2026), store refresh programs (targeting 150 stores by the end of 2026), and supply chain investments.

Better Bets vs. Grocery Outlet (GO)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to GO.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MZTI_3272026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03272026MZTIMarzettiDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.9%0.9%0.0%
TAP_3272026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03272026TAPMolson Coors BeverageDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.8%-0.8%-1.1%
OLLI_3272026_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy03272026OLLIOllie's Bargain OutletDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.1%3.1%0.0%
KHC_3202026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03202026KHCKraft HeinzDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.3%4.3%-1.7%
KMB_3202026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03202026KMBKimberly-ClarkDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.8%-1.8%-1.9%
GO_11302024_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V211302024GOGrocery OutletInsiderInsider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider Buying
Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
-35.3%-47.0%-51.2%

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

GOOLLIDGDLTRCOSTBJMedian
NameGrocery .Ollie's .Dollar G.Dollar T.Costco W.BJ's Who. 
Mkt Price7.0292.39119.75102.601,032.0393.6698.13
Mkt Cap0.75.726.420.4458.212.216.3
Rev LTM4,6892,64942,72419,412286,26521,45720,435
Op Inc LTM873232,2041,65310,9408461,250
FCF LTM21952,3931,4009,099328864
FCF 3Y Avg61441,5901,1807,408298739
CFO LTM2222973,6342,53415,0111,0301,782
CFO 3Y Avg2132593,0072,69412,5418831,788

Growth & Margins

GOOLLIDGDLTRCOSTBJMedian
NameGrocery .Ollie's .Dollar G.Dollar T.Costco W.BJ's Who. 
Rev Chg LTM7.3%16.6%5.2%10.4%8.4%4.7%7.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg9.4%13.2%4.1%8.0%6.9%3.6%7.5%
Rev Chg Q10.7%16.8%5.9%9.0%9.2%5.6%9.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.6%4.4%1.4%2.4%2.1%1.4%2.2%
Op Mgn LTM1.9%12.2%5.2%8.5%3.8%3.9%4.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg2.4%11.8%5.2%9.1%3.6%4.0%4.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.0%0.2%0.7%0.6%0.0%-0.1%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM4.7%11.2%8.5%13.1%5.2%4.8%6.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg5.0%11.1%7.4%15.1%4.7%4.3%6.2%
FCF/Rev LTM0.0%7.3%5.6%7.2%3.2%1.5%4.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg0.2%6.1%3.8%6.5%2.8%1.4%3.3%

Valuation

GOOLLIDGDLTRCOSTBJMedian
NameGrocery .Ollie's .Dollar G.Dollar T.Costco W.BJ's Who. 
Mkt Cap0.75.726.420.4458.212.216.3
P/S0.12.10.61.11.60.60.8
P/EBIT-3.217.512.011.939.715.013.5
P/E-3.123.517.415.953.621.119.3
P/CFO3.119.17.38.130.511.89.9
Total Yield-32.6%4.3%6.7%6.3%2.2%4.7%4.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%1.0%0.0%0.4%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-0.6%2.4%6.9%5.8%2.1%2.8%2.6%
D/E2.60.10.60.30.00.20.3
Net D/E2.50.10.60.3-0.00.20.3

Returns

GOOLLIDGDLTRCOSTBJMedian
NameGrocery .Ollie's .Dollar G.Dollar T.Costco W.BJ's Who. 
1M Rtn11.1%-13.4%-17.6%-12.2%3.5%-2.7%-7.4%
3M Rtn-26.5%-17.9%-16.4%-22.0%12.9%3.8%-17.2%
6M Rtn-54.6%-27.0%22.5%15.3%9.8%5.7%7.7%
12M Rtn-49.4%-16.0%42.0%41.4%7.5%-17.2%-4.3%
3Y Rtn-75.7%56.3%-41.2%-32.9%117.7%23.3%-4.8%
1M Excs Rtn10.4%-14.0%-18.2%-12.8%2.8%-3.3%-8.1%
3M Excs Rtn-21.8%-16.9%-14.8%-20.6%18.5%7.6%-15.8%
6M Excs Rtn-58.0%-26.4%23.7%19.0%11.5%2.5%7.0%
12M Excs Rtn-84.1%-49.3%-1.2%6.0%-20.5%-53.0%-34.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-140.6%-10.8%-105.1%-96.1%50.8%-43.1%-69.6%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Non-perishable2,7562,5652,3062,0122,080
Perishable1,6161,4041,2721,0671,055
Total4,3723,9693,5783,0803,135


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$7.02 
Market Cap ($ Bil)0.7 
First Trading Date06/20/2019 
Distance from 52W High-62.4% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$8.16$12.32
DMA Trenddowndown
Distance from DMA-14.0%-43.0%
 3M1YR
Volatility77.2%66.8%
Downside Capture0.830.59
Upside Capture5.74-0.38
Correlation (SPY)1.8%5.1%
GO Betas & Captures as of 3/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta-0.84-0.090.010.210.190.25
Up Beta6.703.151.760.080.370.56
Down Beta-3.56-2.44-1.67-0.49-0.42-0.17
Up Capture-276%-63%-30%-41%3%-1%
Bmk +ve Days7162765139424
Stock +ve Days9202856114371
Down Capture170%116%134%142%89%79%
Bmk -ve Days12233358110323
Stock -ve Days13223469136375

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with GO
GO-50.1%66.7%-0.79-
Sector ETF (XLP)10.0%13.4%0.4634.9%
Equity (SPY)29.1%17.4%1.365.8%
Gold (GLD)61.3%27.8%1.723.9%
Commodities (DBC)26.9%16.7%1.411.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)17.7%15.4%0.8615.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-10.9%43.9%-0.146.3%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with GO
GO-28.4%49.0%-0.51-
Sector ETF (XLP)6.9%13.2%0.3031.6%
Equity (SPY)11.4%17.0%0.5214.5%
Gold (GLD)22.2%17.8%1.023.0%
Commodities (DBC)11.5%18.8%0.501.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)3.7%18.8%0.1019.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)3.6%56.5%0.296.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with GO
GO-13.2%47.2%-0.27-
Sector ETF (XLP)7.4%14.7%0.3729.9%
Equity (SPY)13.9%17.9%0.6717.9%
Gold (GLD)14.1%15.9%0.746.8%
Commodities (DBC)8.5%17.6%0.402.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.1%20.7%0.2118.5%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)67.1%66.9%1.068.7%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date3132026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity23.4 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 2282026-6.6%
Average Daily Volume6.7 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.5 days
Basic Shares Quantity98.2 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares23.8%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
3/4/2026-27.9%-29.5%-17.9%
11/4/2025-8.0%-18.9%-20.0%
8/5/202542.7%42.1%39.2%
5/6/2025-6.1%-16.0%-15.6%
2/25/2025-30.2%-28.1%-18.0%
10/30/2024-16.3%-12.3%27.9%
8/6/20245.9%3.8%-8.3%
5/7/2024-19.4%-21.1%-17.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive71010
# Negative171414
Median Positive5.9%3.2%13.5%
Median Negative-6.4%-12.6%-16.1%
Max Positive42.7%42.1%39.2%
Max Negative-30.2%-29.5%-20.0%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
12/31/202503/04/202610-K
09/30/202511/05/202510-Q
06/30/202508/06/202510-Q
03/31/202505/07/202510-Q
12/31/202402/26/202510-K
09/30/202411/06/202410-Q
06/30/202408/07/202410-Q
03/31/202405/08/202410-Q
12/31/202302/28/202410-K
09/30/202311/08/202310-Q
06/30/202308/09/202310-Q
03/31/202305/10/202310-Q
12/31/202203/01/202310-K
09/30/202211/09/202210-Q
06/30/202208/10/202210-Q
03/31/202205/11/202210-Q

Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]

Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/4/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 New Store Openings3031.533-14.9% Lower NewActual: 37 for 2025
2026 Revenue4.60 Bil4.66 Bil4.72 Bil-1.1% Lower NewActual: 4.71 Bil for 2025
2026 Comparable Store Sales Growth-2.0%-1.0%0.0%-233.3%-1.8%Lower NewActual: 0.75% for 2025
2026 Gross Margin29.7%29.85%30.0%-1.6%-0.5%Lower NewActual: 30.35% for 2025
2026 Adjusted EBITDA220.00 Mil227.50 Mil235.00 Mil-12.5% Lower NewActual: 260.00 Mil for 2025
2026 EPS0.450.50.55-36.7% Lower NewActual: 0.79 for 2025
2026 Capital Expenditures 170.00 Mil -19.0% Lower NewActual: 210.00 Mil for 2025
2026 Restructuring Charges14.00 Mil19.50 Mil25.00 Mil   
2026 Restructuring Cash Expenditures51.00 Mil57.00 Mil63.00 Mil   
2026 Bad Debt Expense11.00 Mil12.50 Mil14.00 Mil   
2026 Gross Profit Impact-6.00 Mil-5.00 Mil-4.00 Mil   

Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/4/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2025 New store openings, net 37 8.8% RaisedGuidance: 34 for 2025
2025 Revenue4.70 Bil4.71 Bil4.72 Bil-0.8% LoweredGuidance: 4.75 Bil for 2025
2025 Comparable store sales increase0.010.010.01-50.0% LoweredGuidance: 0.01 for 2025
2025 Operating Margin30.3%30.35%30.4%0.3%0.1%RaisedGuidance: 30.25% for 2025
2025 Adjusted EBITDA258.00 Mil260.00 Mil262.00 Mil-1.9% LoweredGuidance: 265.00 Mil for 2025
2025 EPS0.780.790.81.9% RaisedGuidance: 0.78 for 2025
2025 Capital Expenditures 210.00 Mil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 210.00 Mil for 2025

Insider Activity

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#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Wilson, Steven KEVP, Chief Purchasing OfficerDirectSell1110202512.5325,000313,2501,465,045Form
2Wilson, Steven KEVP, Chief Purchasing OfficerDirectSell819202518.245,00091,2002,588,676Form
3Wilson, Steven KEVP, Chief Purchasing OfficerDirectSell811202519.2020,000384,0002,820,922Form
4Thompson, Luke DEVP, GC and SecretaryDirectSell522202513.771,36818,837410,332Form
5Ragatz, Erik D LLC (see footnote)Buy512202514.4619,000274,740274,740Form