Grocery Outlet (GO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $11.32 | Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Food Retail
Grocery Outlet (GO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $11.32Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Food Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Sustainable Resource Management, and Value-Oriented Consumerism. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -110%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -135% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 112% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 55x | ||
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.1% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.4% | ||
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 23% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Sustainable Resource Management, and Value-Oriented Consumerism. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -110%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -135% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 112% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 55x |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.1% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.4% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 23% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points contributing to the significant movement in Grocery Outlet (GO) stock for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Mixed Q3 2025 Earnings and Trimmed Comparable Sales Outlook: On November 4, 2025, Grocery Outlet reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, which were mixed. While adjusted earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates, the company's net sales fell short of expectations. More significantly, comparable-store sales growth also underperformed management's targets, with a slowdown in the latter part of the quarter attributed to ineffective promotional strategies and marketing execution.
2. Downward Revision of Fiscal Year 2025 Guidance: Following the Q3 results, Grocery Outlet revised its fiscal 2025 guidance downwards. The company narrowed its net sales outlook and lowered its projections for comparable-store sales growth from an earlier range of 1-2% to 0.6-0.9%. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was also reduced. These revisions were a direct reflection of softer comparable sales trends and promotional challenges experienced late in the quarter.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GO Return | 21% | -28% | 3% | -8% | -42% | -28% | -65% |
| Peers Return | 26% | 22% | -12% | 15% | 1% | 6% | 66% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GO Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 58% | 50% | 33% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 64% | 48% | 53% | 48% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GO Max Drawdown | -10% | -46% | -14% | -10% | -48% | -34% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -13% | -5% | -27% | -15% | -23% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: KR, DG, DT, DNUT, CASY. See GO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -53.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 117.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -21.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
Compare to KR, DG, DT, DNUT, CASY
In The Past
Grocery Outlet's stock fell -53.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/27/2021. A -53.9% loss requires a 117.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Grocery Outlet
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 55.33 |
| Mkt Cap | 17.0 |
| Rev LTM | 10,491 |
| Op Inc LTM | 538 |
| FCF LTM | 570 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 445 |
| CFO LTM | 844 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 714 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 17.0 |
| P/S | 0.5 |
| P/EBIT | 18.2 |
| P/E | 19.3 |
| P/CFO | 12.2 |
| Total Yield | 3.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 0.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -4.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | -19.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -14.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -18.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -89.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 10/1/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8102022 | 10-Q 7/2/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5112022 | 10-Q 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3022022 | 10-K 1/1/2022 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |