Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NGVC)
Market Price (7/15/2026): $32.15 | Market Cap: $740.6 MilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NGVC)
Market Price (7/15/2026): $32.15Market Cap: $740.6 MilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Nutritional Supplements, Organic & Natural Products, Show more. | Key risksNGVC key risks include [1] a heavy reliance on its single primary distributor, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Nutritional Supplements, Organic & Natural Products, Show more. |
| Key risksNGVC key risks include [1] a heavy reliance on its single primary distributor, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NGVC) stock has gained about 25% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Beat.
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NGVC) reported its fiscal Q2 2026 results on May 6 or 7, 2026, exceeding analysts' expectations. The company posted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.58, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $0.55 by 5.45%. Net income increased 2.5% to $13.4 million, and diluted earnings per share rose 3.6% to $0.58 compared to the prior year's quarter. Although revenue of $337.4 million missed forecasts by 3.64%, the gross margin expanded by 10 basis points to 30.4%, reflecting effective cost management.
2. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Upgraded Price Targets.
Following the strong earnings, analysts maintained or upgraded their outlook for NGVC. As of early July 2026, analysts held a "Strong Buy" or "Moderate Buy" consensus rating for the stock. The median price target from two Wall Street analysts was $45.00, implying a 41.2% upside from the stock's price of $31.87 on July 2, 2026. Additionally, the average price target from three analysts was $47.00, with individual targets ranging from $40.00 to $54.00, suggesting a 44.08% potential upside from the closing price of $32.62 on July 2, 2026. Alliance Global Partners initiated coverage with a "buy" rating and a $40 price target.
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Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NGVC) stock has gained about 25% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Beat.
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NGVC) reported its fiscal Q2 2026 results on May 6 or 7, 2026, exceeding analysts' expectations. The company posted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.58, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $0.55 by 5.45%. Net income increased 2.5% to $13.4 million, and diluted earnings per share rose 3.6% to $0.58 compared to the prior year's quarter. Although revenue of $337.4 million missed forecasts by 3.64%, the gross margin expanded by 10 basis points to 30.4%, reflecting effective cost management.
2. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Upgraded Price Targets.
Following the strong earnings, analysts maintained or upgraded their outlook for NGVC. As of early July 2026, analysts held a "Strong Buy" or "Moderate Buy" consensus rating for the stock. The median price target from two Wall Street analysts was $45.00, implying a 41.2% upside from the stock's price of $31.87 on July 2, 2026. Additionally, the average price target from three analysts was $47.00, with individual targets ranging from $40.00 to $54.00, suggesting a 44.08% potential upside from the closing price of $32.62 on July 2, 2026. Alliance Global Partners initiated coverage with a "buy" rating and a $40 price target.
3. Continued Operational Strength and Strategic Growth Initiatives.
The company demonstrated ongoing operational effectiveness, highlighted by strong customer engagement and strategic expansion. The nPower Rewards program, a key loyalty initiative, now accounts for 84% of total sales, indicating robust customer retention and engagement. Furthermore, penetration of the Natural Grocers private label brand increased by 120 basis points to 9.8%, contributing to loyalty and promotional efficiency. In line with its growth strategy, Natural Grocers opened new stores, including locations in Lake Geneva, Wisconsin, on June 10, 2026, and McMinnville, Oregon, on July 1, 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 24.8% change in NGVC stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 24.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 25.71 | 32.09 | 24.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,336 | 1,338 | 0.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.6% | 3.6% | 0.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.4 | 15.3 | 24.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 23 | 23 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 24.8% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NGVC | 24.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.6% | -31.6% |
| Sector (XLP) | 1.8% | 47.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 29.5% change in NGVC stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 25.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 24.78 | 32.09 | 29.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,331 | 1,338 | 0.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.2 | 15.3 | 25.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 23 | 23 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 29.5% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NGVC | 29.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.6% | -20.4% |
| Sector (XLP) | 8.0% | 42.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -16.6% change in NGVC stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -28.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 38.50 | 32.09 | -16.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,298 | 1,338 | 3.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.2% | 3.6% | 13.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.4 | 15.3 | -28.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 23 | 23 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -16.6% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NGVC | -16.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.7% | 1.6% |
| Sector (XLP) | 5.2% | 34.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 193.7% change in NGVC stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 142.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.93 | 32.09 | 193.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,104 | 1,338 | 21.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.5% | 3.6% | 142.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.2 | 15.3 | 1.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 23 | 23 | -1.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 193.7% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NGVC | 193.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.6% | 15.3% |
| Sector (XLP) | 21.2% | 17.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NGVC Return | 6% | -34% | 92% | 153% | -36% | 32% | 186% |
| Peers Return | 50% | 11% | 8% | 42% | -3% | 15% | 185% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NGVC Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 83% | 50% | 42% | 71% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 50% | 55% | 55% | 52% | 77% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 57% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NGVC Max Drawdown | -44% | -61% | -16% | -19% | -58% | -13% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -25% | -19% | -20% | -27% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: SFM, KR, WMK, IMKTA, VLGEA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/14/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NGVC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -27.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.2% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -27.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 318 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -28.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 12 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -25.3% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.9% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 329 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -31.3% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2249 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -13.3% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.4% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's stock fell -27.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 38.2% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | NGVC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -27.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.2% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -27.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 318 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -28.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 12 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -25.3% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.9% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 329 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -31.3% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2249 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's stock fell -27.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 38.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NGVC)
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC) is a specialty retailer operating natural and organic grocery stores across the United States. The company focuses on offering a broad selection of products that emphasize natural ingredients and organic certification, catering to health-conscious consumers. As of early 2022, NGVC operates 162 stores across 20 states under its "Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage" brand.
The company's main products encompass a wide range of natural and organic grocery items, including fresh produce, bulk foods, meats, seafood, dairy products, and various private label goods such as pasta, frozen vegetables, and beverages. Beyond groceries, Natural Grocers also stocks private label dietary supplements, natural body care products, pet food, and household cleaning supplies. A distinguishing service offered by NGVC is its science-based nutrition education programs, aimed at helping customers make informed health and nutrition choices.
NGVC primarily serves consumers who prioritize natural and organic products, seeking high-quality food, supplements, and related lifestyle goods. The company differentiates itself through its specialized product assortment and commitment to health and wellness, attracting a customer base that values wholesome ingredients, sustainable practices, and nutritional education.
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A cross between Whole Foods Market and The Vitamin Shoppe.
A regional chain similar to Whole Foods Market, but with a deeper emphasis on science-based nutrition education.
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- Natural and Organic Groceries: A wide range of food products including organic produce, bulk foods, private label items, meat, seafood, dairy, prepared foods, baked goods, beverages, beer, wine, and hard cider.
- Dietary Supplements: A variety of vitamins, minerals, herbs, and other health-supporting supplements, including private label options.
- Body Care Products: Natural and organic cosmetics, skin care, hair care, fragrance, and personal care items.
- Pet Care and Food Products: Supplies and food specifically for pets.
- Household and General Merchandise: Common household goods such as cleaning supplies, paper products, soaps, and diapers.
- Nutrition Education Programs: Science-based educational services designed to help customers make informed health and nutrition choices.
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Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NGVC) primarily sells to individuals through its retail store operations. The company's major customers can be categorized as follows:
- Health- and Wellness-Focused Consumers: This category includes individuals who prioritize their health and well-being, actively seeking out organic, natural, and minimally processed foods, as well as high-quality dietary supplements. They often engage with the company's science-based nutrition education programs to make informed health and nutrition choices.
- Individuals with Specific Dietary Needs or Preferences: Customers in this segment require products that cater to specialized diets, such as vegetarian, vegan, gluten-free, dairy-free, or other specific dietary restrictions or preferences. Natural Grocers provides a wide range of suitable options, including plant-based alternatives and allergen-friendly products.
- Conscious Consumers Seeking Quality and Ethical Products: This category encompasses customers who are discerning about the sourcing, quality, and ethical standards of their purchases. They are drawn to Natural Grocers' commitment to organic certification, natural ingredients in body care products, and overall transparency in product offerings, reflecting a preference for sustainable and responsibly produced goods.
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Kemper Isely - Chairman and Co-President
Kemper Isely has served as a director and Co-President of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage since 1998, also holding the position of Chairman. He began his career with the company in 1977, gaining extensive experience across various departments including Store Manager, Warehouse Manager, Director of Marketing, Director of Purchasing, Director of Operations, and Director of Finance. Along with his siblings, he acquired the company from his father. His background does not indicate a pattern of managing companies backed by private equity firms or founding/selling other companies outside of his involvement with Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage.
Zephyr Isely - Co-President and Director
Zephyr Isely has been a director and Co-President of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage since 1998. He joined the company in 1969 and has held numerous roles, including Store Manager, Director of Receiving, Warehouse Manager, Director of Operations, Director of Purchasing, Director of Accounting, Manager of Payroll and Compensation, and Director of Information Systems. He is the son of the company's founders and, along with his siblings, purchased the company from his father. There is no information suggesting a pattern of managing companies backed by private equity firms or founding/selling other companies beyond Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage.
Richard Hallé - Chief Financial Officer
Richard Hallé was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, effective January 1, 2025. Prior to this role, he served on Natural Grocers' board of directors and audit committee since 2012. His previous experience includes serving as a Managing Director of Alvarez & Marsal's Private Equity Performance Improvement Group from March 2023 to October 2024. He was also the CFO of Vivial Inc. from 2011 to 2021, and the CFO and Secretary of DTN Holding Company, Inc. from 2003 to 2008. Earlier in his career, he was a Managing Director at FTI Consulting, Inc. from 2002 to 2003, where he developed business and finance strategies.
Heather Isely - Executive Vice President, Corporate Secretary, and Director
Heather Isely has served as a director, Executive Vice President, and Corporate Secretary of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage since 1998. She joined the company in 1989 and has experience in various capacities such as Produce Coordinator, Store Manager, Manager of Quality Control, Director of Nutrition Education, Manager of Operations, Manager of Compensation, Manager of Training, and Director of Human Resources.
Elizabeth Isely - Executive Vice President and Director
Elizabeth Isely has been a director and Executive Vice President of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage since 1998. She joined the company in 1977 and has held roles including Store Manager, Regional Manager, Director of Operations, Manager of Training, and Director of New Store Openings.
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Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NGVC) faces several key risks to its business operations and financial performance:
- Intense Competition from Mainstream Retailers: The growing availability of natural and organic products in conventional supermarkets, discount stores, and warehouse clubs poses a significant threat to Natural Grocers. As organic products become mainstream, specialty grocers like NGVC face increased competitive pressure on sales and operating margins from larger retailers that can offer similar products, often at more competitive prices. This shift in the competitive landscape has contributed to the struggles and even bankruptcies of other natural and organic grocery chains.
- Slowing Sales Growth and Macroeconomic Headwinds: Natural Grocers is vulnerable to a slowdown in comparable store sales growth and reduced customer traffic. Economic conditions, including inflation and a tightening of consumer spending, can negatively impact demand for the company's products, affecting its profitability and growth trajectory.
- Supply Chain Disruptions and Product Safety/Quality Concerns: The company is exposed to risks related to disruptions in its supply chain, which can arise from factors such as adverse weather, natural disasters, or cybersecurity incidents affecting its distributors. Furthermore, maintaining consumer confidence in the safety and quality of its natural and organic products is paramount. Any issues related to food safety, the proper use of natural fertilizers and pesticides, or potential contamination could lead to a loss of customer trust, reputational damage, and significant financial repercussions.
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The increasing market penetration and sophistication of online grocery delivery and pickup services, particularly from large, diversified retailers (such as Amazon Fresh/Whole Foods, Walmart, and other major supermarket chains expanding their natural and organic selections), and potentially specialized online-only organic grocers. These platforms offer growing convenience, competitive pricing, and expanding product ranges for natural and organic groceries and dietary supplements, directly challenging the traditional brick-and-mortar model and curated in-store experience that Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage provides. The ongoing shift in consumer behavior towards online shopping for even perishable and specialty food items represents a significant, evolving threat to physical retail footprints.
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For Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NGVC), the addressable markets for their main products and services in the U.S. are as follows:
- Natural and Organic Groceries: The U.S. organic food market sales totaled $65.4 billion in 2024.
- Dietary Supplements: The U.S. dietary supplement market reached $69.3 billion in 2024.
- Body Care Products (Organic Personal Care Products): The U.S. organic personal care products market size was estimated to be between USD 6.31 billion and USD 7.58 billion in 2024.
- Pet Care and Food Products (Organic and Natural Pet Food): The United States organic and natural pet food market size reached USD 8.1 billion in 2024.
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- New store expansion and relocations are a key component of the company's growth strategy. Natural Grocers plans to open 6 to 8 new stores in fiscal year 2026 and aims for 4-5% annual new store unit growth in fiscal year 2026 and beyond. Relocating existing stores is also a strategic element, as it typically leads to accelerated sales growth from a higher base.
- Growth in daily average comparable store sales is expected to contribute significantly. For fiscal year 2026, the company projects comparable store sales growth between 1.5% and 4%. This growth is driven by increases in daily average comparable transaction counts and transaction sizes.
- The increasing penetration and sales of Natural Grocers' private label products are identified as an important internal driver. Private label offerings generally provide higher margins, and their continued growth supports overall profitability and sales. The {N}power rewards program and private label products collectively demonstrated significant sales growth in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026.
- Enhanced customer engagement through the {N}power rewards program is expected to fuel sales. Natural Grocers has observed stronger sales growth from members of its {N}power Rewards program.
- The company's alignment with consumer trends and the introduction of new products are also anticipated to drive growth. Sales growth has been broad-based across various product categories, with strong performance in dairy, meat, and produce, and positive dietary supplement sales. Natural Grocers believes its continued growth will benefit from its close alignment with current consumer preferences and the impact of new product introductions.
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Share Repurchases
- Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage had $8.1 million remaining in its $10.0 million share repurchase program as of December 31, 2025.
- As of September 30, 2024, $8.1 million remained in the share repurchase program.
Capital Expenditures
- For fiscal year 2026, the company plans to direct $50 million to $55 million towards capital expenditures to support growth initiatives, including opening six to eight new stores and relocating or remodeling two to three existing stores.
- In fiscal year 2025, Natural Grocers invested $31.0 million in net capital expenditures, primarily for new and relocated/remodeled stores, opening two new stores and relocating/remodeling three stores.
- The company's capital expenditures were $31.16 million in the last 12 months ending December 31, 2025. [cite: 5 in previous search]
Latest Trefis Analyses
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| ARTICLES |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 67.05 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| Rev LTM | 5,204 |
| Op Inc LTM | 151 |
| FCF LTM | 104 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 62 |
| CFO LTM | 245 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 222 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 8.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 4.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.8% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $32.09 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/25/2012 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -20.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $30.16 | $29.02 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | 6.4% | 10.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 37.7% | 39.0% |
| Downside Capture | -178.99 | 23.19 |
| Upside Capture | -36.14 | -6.43 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -30.6% | 0.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -1.45 | -1.39 | -0.88 | -0.52 | 0.06 | 0.50 |
| Up Beta | -0.84 | -1.73 | -0.91 | -0.95 | -0.38 | 0.16 |
| Down Beta | -1.64 | -0.70 | -0.98 | -0.63 | 0.11 | 0.62 |
| Up Capture | -119% | -91% | -16% | -3% | 2% | 56% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 20 | 33 | 60 | 121 | 371 |
| Down Capture | -195% | -241% | -192% | -81% | 45% | 76% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 20 | 29 | 63 | 127 | 372 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NGVC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NGVC | -16.3% | 39.0% | -0.37 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 5.4% | 13.5% | 0.14 | 33.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.7% | 12.6% | 1.28 | 0.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.5% | 27.9% | 0.65 | -12.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 27.3% | 18.9% | 1.14 | -12.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.0% | 13.9% | 0.64 | 18.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -47.0% | 42.7% | -1.37 | 5.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NGVC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NGVC | 28.8% | 48.2% | 0.68 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 6.3% | 13.5% | 0.25 | 24.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 21.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.2% | 18.4% | 0.76 | 4.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 19.5% | 0.33 | 5.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.7% | 18.9% | 0.04 | 24.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.8% | 53.4% | 0.42 | 8.5% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NGVC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NGVC | 13.3% | 55.6% | 0.44 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.0% | 14.8% | 0.34 | 23.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 20.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.2% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 3.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.3% | 18.0% | 0.27 | 8.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 19.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 57.3% | 66.2% | 0.97 | 6.7% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/10/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -4.9% | 4.0% | 9.0% |
| 2/5/2026 | -2.2% | -4.3% | -5.7% |
| 11/20/2025 | -5.0% | -8.8% | -15.1% |
| 8/7/2025 | 6.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% |
| 5/8/2025 | 30.2% | 12.6% | -3.5% |
| 2/6/2025 | -1.3% | -0.8% | -29.0% |
| 11/21/2024 | 25.8% | 29.8% | 7.4% |
| 8/8/2024 | 3.8% | 0.6% | 10.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 15 | 14 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 10.4% | 7.2% | 9.8% |
| Median Negative | -4.9% | -8.8% | -15.7% |
| Max Positive | 30.2% | 49.9% | 39.7% |
| Max Negative | -18.8% | -25.0% | -32.6% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -4.9% | 4.0% | 9.0% |
| 2/5/2026 | -2.2% | -4.3% | -5.7% |
| 11/20/2025 | -5.0% | -8.8% | -15.1% |
| 8/7/2025 | 6.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% |
| 5/8/2025 | 30.2% | 12.6% | -3.5% |
| 2/6/2025 | -1.3% | -0.8% | -29.0% |
| 11/21/2024 | 25.8% | 29.8% | 7.4% |
| 8/8/2024 | 3.8% | 0.6% | 10.6% |
| 5/9/2024 | 9.5% | 18.2% | 17.7% |
| 2/8/2024 | 15.8% | 2.7% | 19.8% |
| 11/16/2023 | 22.4% | 41.6% | 39.7% |
| 8/3/2023 | 6.5% | 7.2% | 2.5% |
| 5/4/2023 | 15.2% | 8.4% | 6.1% |
| 2/2/2023 | -1.3% | 2.3% | 8.3% |
| 11/17/2022 | -13.5% | -12.6% | -21.8% |
| 8/4/2022 | -4.4% | -8.9% | -16.2% |
| 5/5/2022 | -6.8% | -0.8% | -6.2% |
| 2/3/2022 | 8.8% | 23.8% | 33.0% |
| 11/18/2021 | 10.4% | 7.0% | 11.7% |
| 8/5/2021 | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.4% |
| 5/6/2021 | -18.8% | -25.0% | -27.5% |
| 2/4/2021 | -2.6% | -4.6% | -3.2% |
| 11/19/2020 | 16.0% | 49.9% | 23.8% |
| 8/6/2020 | -7.2% | -15.9% | -32.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 15 | 14 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 10.4% | 7.2% | 9.8% |
| Median Negative | -4.9% | -8.8% | -15.7% |
| Max Positive | 30.2% | 49.9% | 39.7% |
| Max Negative | -18.8% | -25.0% | -32.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 12/11/2025 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 12/12/2024 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 12/07/2023 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 12/08/2022 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 12/11/2025 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 12/12/2024 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 12/07/2023 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 12/08/2022 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2021 | 12/09/2021 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2020 | 12/10/2020 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2019 | 12/05/2019 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/01/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/12/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Number of new stores | 6 | 7 | 8 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 7 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Number of relocations/remodels | 2 | 2.5 | 3 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.5 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Daily average comparable store sales growth | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | -0.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 2.75% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Diluted earnings per share | 2.07 | 2.11 | 2.15 | 1.7% | Raised | Guidance: 2.08 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | 45.00 Mil | 47.50 Mil | 50.00 Mil | -9.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 52.50 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 2/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Number of new stores | 6 | 7 | 8 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 7 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Number of relocations/remodels | 2 | 2.5 | 3 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.5 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Daily average comparable store sales growth | 1.5% | 2.75% | 4.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.75% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Diluted earnings per share | 2 | 2.08 | 2.15 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.08 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | 50.00 Mil | 52.50 Mil | 55.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 52.50 Mil for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 11/20/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Number of new stores | 6 | 7 | 8 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 7 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Number of relocations/remodels | 2 | 2.5 | 3 | -16.7% | Lower New | Actual: 3 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Daily average comparable store sales growth | 1.5% | 2.75% | 4.0% | -4.8% | Lower New | Actual: 7.5% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Diluted earnings per share | 2 | 2.08 | 2.15 | 7.8% | Higher New | Actual: 1.93 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | 50.00 Mil | 52.50 Mil | 55.00 Mil | 66.7% | Higher New | Actual: 31.50 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 6/3/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isely, Charity | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 29.04 | 3,000 | 87,120 | 310,641 | Form | |
| 2 | Isely, Lark | Direct | Sell | 8272025 | 41.00 | 500 | 20,500 | 171,462 | Form | |
| 3 | Isely, Lark | Direct | Sell | 8212025 | 40.00 | 2,000 | 80,000 | 187,280 | Form | |
| 4 | Isely, Lark | Direct | Sell | 6132025 | 44.26 | 2,000 | 88,520 | 295,745 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isely, Charity | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 29.04 | 3,000 | 87,120 | 310,641 | Form | |
| 2 | Isely, Lark | Direct | Sell | 8272025 | 41.00 | 500 | 20,500 | 171,462 | Form | |
| 3 | Isely, Lark | Direct | Sell | 8212025 | 40.00 | 2,000 | 80,000 | 187,280 | Form | |
| 4 | Isely, Lark | Direct | Sell | 6132025 | 44.26 | 2,000 | 88,520 | 295,745 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Consumer Staples Resources |
| FoodNavigator |
| Consumer Goods Technology (CGT) |
| Beverage Digest |
| Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail Resources |
| Mass Market Retailers |
| Store Brands |
| Retail Dive |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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