Tearsheet

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NGVC)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $25.74 | Market Cap: $590.8 Mil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NGVC)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $25.74
Market Cap: $590.8 Mil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.1%
Key risks
NGVC key risks include [1] a heavy reliance on its single primary distributor, Show more.
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Nutritional Supplements, Organic & Natural Products, Show more.
 
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.1%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Nutritional Supplements, Organic & Natural Products, Show more.
2 Key risks
NGVC key risks include [1] a heavy reliance on its single primary distributor, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NGVC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NGVC) experienced a significant stock price decline between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025, which can be attributed to several key factors:

1. Initial Overvaluation and Subsequent Correction: The stock was identified as significantly overvalued in May 2025, trading at approximately $59.74, a 48.4% premium to its calculated fair value. This assessment led to a prolonged correction, with the stock falling to $27.17 by December 2025, representing a 54.5% decline from the initial overvalued signal price.

2. Revenue Shortfall in Q4 Fiscal 2025: Despite reporting strong full-year results and beating earnings per share forecasts, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage announced a revenue shortfall for its fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 (ended September 30, 2025). The company reported $336.1 million in revenue against an anticipated $350.98 million, a 4.24% miss, which negatively impacted investor sentiment.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NGVC Return62%6%-34%92%153%-36%254%
Peers Return5%50%11%8%42%-0%167%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NGVC Win Rate58%58%50%83%50%42% 
Peers Win Rate55%63%50%55%55%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NGVC Max Drawdown-41%-26%-35%-7%-9%-37% 
Peers Max Drawdown-23%-3%-13%-14%-9%-12% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SFM, KR, WMK, IMKTA, VLGEA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNGVCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-64.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven178.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven544 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-45.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven84.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven46 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-64.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven182.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven258 days120 days

Compare to WMT, DG, WMK, IMKTA, COST


In The Past

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's stock fell -64.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/21/2022. A -64.1% loss requires a 178.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NGVC)

Better Bets than Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NGVC)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NGVC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.9%-5.9%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
15.4%15.4%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.7%6.7%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.7%-3.7%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.9%-5.9%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
15.4%15.4%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.7%6.7%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.7%-3.7%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NGVCSFMKRWMKIMKTAVLGEAMedian
NameNatural .Sprouts .Kroger Weis Mar.Ingles M.Village . 
Mkt Price25.6880.9563.8168.2772.3738.5666.04
Mkt Cap0.97.944.21.71.40.41.5
Rev LTM1,3318,654147,2254,8955,3342,3465,114
Op Inc LTM636781,55612014673133
FCF LTM244582,269-3403738
FCF 3Y Avg293592,25141613651
CFO LTM557026,06220815493181
CFO 3Y Avg655846,13319522892211

Growth & Margins

NGVCSFMKRWMKIMKTAVLGEAMedian
NameNatural .Sprouts .Kroger Weis Mar.Ingles M.Village . 
Rev Chg LTM7.2%16.6%-1.8%2.2%-5.4%3.9%3.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg6.9%11.1%0.2%2.9%-2.0%4.0%3.4%
Rev Chg Q4.2%13.1%0.7%4.4%-2.1%4.5%4.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.0%3.0%0.2%1.1%-0.5%1.1%1.0%
Op Mgn LTM4.7%7.8%1.1%2.4%2.7%3.1%2.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.9%6.7%1.9%2.6%3.4%3.0%3.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.2%0.2%-1.6%-0.2%1.2%-0.1%0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM4.2%8.1%4.1%4.2%2.9%4.0%4.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg5.3%7.6%4.1%4.0%4.0%4.1%4.1%
FCF/Rev LTM1.8%5.3%1.5%-0.1%0.7%1.6%1.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg2.3%4.7%1.5%0.9%1.1%1.6%1.6%

Valuation

NGVCSFMKRWMKIMKTAVLGEAMedian
NameNatural .Sprouts .Kroger Weis Mar.Ingles M.Village . 
Mkt Cap0.97.944.21.71.40.41.5
P/S0.71.20.30.40.30.20.3
P/EBIT-15.7-14.910.6-14.9
P/E19.820.756.017.816.46.918.8
P/CFO16.615.17.38.68.94.18.7
Total Yield5.1%4.8%3.8%7.6%7.0%18.1%6.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%2.0%2.0%0.9%3.5%1.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-4.5%-2.2%4.4%-4.4%
D/E-0.2-0.10.4-0.2
Net D/E-0.1--0.00.1-0.1

Returns

NGVCSFMKRWMKIMKTAVLGEAMedian
NameNatural .Sprouts .Kroger Weis Mar.Ingles M.Village . 
1M Rtn-18.6%-2.0%-3.5%4.3%-2.2%13.9%-2.1%
3M Rtn-29.3%-34.4%-4.2%-4.7%3.3%-0.2%-4.5%
6M Rtn-36.1%-50.0%-1.6%-5.8%18.9%5.6%-3.7%
12M Rtn-35.9%-41.6%6.4%-2.6%7.0%19.7%1.9%
3Y Rtn220.2%141.8%53.9%-11.0%-22.1%80.3%67.1%
1M Excs Rtn-19.4%-2.7%-4.2%3.6%-2.9%13.1%-2.8%
3M Excs Rtn-31.2%-35.4%-4.1%-6.2%1.4%-2.5%-5.2%
6M Excs Rtn-48.5%-62.4%-14.0%-18.2%6.5%-6.8%-16.1%
12M Excs Rtn-49.1%-56.3%-6.2%-13.4%-5.5%10.5%-9.8%
3Y Excs Rtn130.6%69.8%-22.4%-84.5%-94.9%11.2%-5.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil2025202420232022
Grocery796759732720
Dietary supplements236227220213
Body care, pet care and other109103104103
Total1,1411,0901,0561,037


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,661,735
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-1.6%
Average Daily Volume336,115
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.94
Basic Shares Quantity22,954,524
Short % of Basic Shares7.2%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/20/2025-5.0%-8.8% 
8/7/20256.7%4.8%3.6%
5/8/202530.2%12.6%-3.5%
2/6/2025-1.3%-0.8%-29.0%
11/21/202425.8%29.8%7.4%
8/8/20243.8%0.6%10.6%
5/9/20249.5%18.2%17.7%
2/8/202415.8%2.7%19.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141514
# Negative10910
Median Positive12.8%8.4%11.1%
Median Negative-4.7%-8.8%-21.8%
Max Positive42.6%49.9%39.7%
Max Negative-18.8%-25.0%-32.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251211202510-K 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024206202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241212202410-K 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023208202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231207202310-K 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022202202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221208202210-K 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021203202210-Q 12/31/2021