Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NGVC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $27.27 | Market Cap: $625.9 MilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NGVC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $27.27Market Cap: $625.9 MilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Nutritional Supplements, Organic & Natural Products, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Nutritional Supplements, Organic & Natural Products, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NGVC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NGVC) experienced a significant stock decline of approximately 28.7% during the period from late August 2025 to early December 2025, driven by several factors.
1. Negative Technical Signals and Bearish Trend: The stock exhibited strong bearish signals, with a sell signal issued from a pivot top on October 23, 2025, leading to a 33.31% fall. The overall moving average trend also leaned bearish as of December 2, 2025, with negative signals indicating a strong mid-term bearish trend.
2. Negative Analyst Evaluation: Analysts issued negative evaluations and forecasts for Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, anticipating weak performance in the short term.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NGVC Return | 62% | 6% | -34% | 92% | 153% | -31% | 282% |
| Peers Return | 21% | 43% | 5% | -3% | 11% | 19% | 133% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NGVC Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 50% | 83% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 67% | 53% | 55% | 47% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NGVC Max Drawdown | -41% | -26% | -35% | -7% | -9% | -30% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -10% | -17% | -23% | -17% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WMT, DG, WMK, IMKTA, COST.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NGVC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -64.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 178.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 544 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -45.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 84.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 46 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -64.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 182.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 258 days | 120 days |
Compare to WMT, DG, WMK, IMKTA, COST
In The Past
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's stock fell -64.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/21/2022. A -64.1% loss requires a 178.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NGVC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 93.76 |
| Mkt Cap | 12.9 |
| Rev LTM | 23,507 |
| Op Inc LTM | 955 |
| FCF LTM | 942 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 635 |
| CFO LTM | 1,683 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,490 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 4.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 12.9 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| P/EBIT | 15.1 |
| P/E | 21.2 |
| P/CFO | 11.3 |
| Total Yield | 5.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -4.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 1.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 37.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -19.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -12.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -40.8% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 12122024 | 10-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2082024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 12072023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2022023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 12082022 | 10-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2032022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 12092021 | 10-K 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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