Tearsheet

Serve Robotics (SERV)


Market Price (12/15/2025): $12.33 | Market Cap: $756.4 Mil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components

Serve Robotics (SERV)


Market Price (12/15/2025): $12.33
Market Cap: $756.4 Mil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Autonomous Technologies, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Machine Vision, Machine Learning, Show more.
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -86 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4424%
1  Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 367x
2  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2924%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4265%
3  High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 130%
4  Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 24%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Autonomous Technologies, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Machine Vision, Machine Learning, Show more.
1 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -86 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4424%
2 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 367x
3 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2924%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4265%
4 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 130%
5 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 24%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SERV Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Serve Robotics (SERV) experienced a 9.3% stock movement between August 31, 2025, and December 15, 2025, driven by a combination of significant operational milestones, strategic partnerships, and financial activities.

1. Major Robot Deployment Milestone Achieved: Serve Robotics successfully achieved its 2025 goal of deploying over 2,000 autonomous delivery robots by December 12, 2025. This accomplishment established the largest sidewalk delivery fleet in the U.S. and represented a twentyfold increase in its active fleet since the beginning of 2025, demonstrating strong operational execution.

2. Expanded Strategic Partnerships: On October 9, 2025, Serve Robotics announced a new multi-year strategic partnership with DoorDash to introduce autonomous robot deliveries, starting in Los Angeles and expanding to other cities. This new collaboration, alongside its existing partnership with Uber Eats, significantly broadened the company's market reach within the U.S. food delivery sector.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SERV Return-5%
Peers Return-30%78%6%53%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SERV Win Rate44%58% 
Peers Win Rate64%40%57%50%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SERV Max Drawdown-62% 
Peers Max Drawdown-44%-9%-23%-32% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TRMB, ZBRA, TER, ROK, SYM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

SERV has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-22.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven29.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven273 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-42.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven74.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven232 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-24.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven32.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven312 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-63.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven172.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1463 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -22.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2022. A -22.6% loss requires a 29.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Serve Robotics (SERV)

Better Bets than Serve Robotics (SERV)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SERV. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.9%22.9%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.7%8.7%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.8%5.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.8%1.8%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.9%22.9%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.7%8.7%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.8%5.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.8%1.8%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Serve Robotics

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SERVTRMBZBRATERROKSYMMedian
NameServe Ro.Trimble Zebra Te.Teradyne Rockwell.Symbotic  
Mkt Price12.1380.26268.39193.37405.1861.43136.81
Mkt Cap0.719.113.630.739.36.016.4
Rev LTM23,6015,2552,8608,3422,2473,230
Op Inc LTM-865748065391,423-92556
FCF LTM-833157924571,358788622
FCF 3Y Avg-434535374271,070298440
CFO LTM-573418666751,544867771
CFO 3Y Avg-314876126111,261347549

Growth & Margins

SERVTRMBZBRATERROKSYMMedian
NameServe Ro.Trimble Zebra Te.Teradyne Rockwell.Symbotic  
Rev Chg LTM15.8%-0.9%12.9%4.5%0.9%25.7%8.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--1.3%-2.4%-4.3%3.0%58.7%-1.3%
Rev Chg Q209.5%2.9%5.2%4.3%13.8%9.5%7.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM31.4%0.7%1.3%1.1%3.5%2.5%1.9%
Op Mgn LTM-4,423.9%15.9%15.3%18.8%17.1%-4.1%15.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-5,264.4%13.5%14.6%19.4%16.7%-9.9%14.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-391.9%1.2%-0.2%-0.4%1.6%-1.1%-0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM-2,923.7%9.5%16.5%23.6%18.5%38.6%17.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-3,979.2%13.3%12.4%22.0%14.7%18.3%14.0%
FCF/Rev LTM-4,265.3%8.8%15.1%16.0%16.3%35.1%15.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-5,093.6%12.4%10.9%15.4%12.5%15.7%12.4%

Valuation

SERVTRMBZBRATERROKSYMMedian
NameServe Ro.Trimble Zebra Te.Teradyne Rockwell.Symbotic  
Mkt Cap0.719.113.630.739.36.016.4
P/S366.85.42.97.64.72.75.1
P/EBIT-39.618.941.6--39.6
P/E-8.954.429.549.345.2-355.437.3
P/CFO-12.557.017.432.325.46.921.4
Total Yield-11.2%1.8%3.4%2.4%3.7%-0.3%2.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%1.5%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-3.0%3.2%2.2%--3.0%
D/E-0.10.20.0--0.1
Net D/E-0.10.1-0.0--0.1

Returns

SERVTRMBZBRATERROKSYMMedian
NameServe Ro.Trimble Zebra Te.Teradyne Rockwell.Symbotic  
1M Rtn29.9%3.5%11.6%13.9%7.8%5.6%9.7%
3M Rtn0.0%-0.8%-14.2%72.4%17.9%28.6%8.9%
6M Rtn11.2%12.9%-5.4%133.2%28.4%119.6%20.7%
12M Rtn-7.3%9.1%-33.5%57.6%38.6%128.6%23.8%
3Y Rtn-54.7%6.9%121.3%66.0%412.8%66.0%
1M Excs Rtn16.2%-2.0%5.3%8.3%3.4%-2.3%4.4%
3M Excs Rtn-3.9%-4.1%-19.6%66.4%14.2%16.3%5.2%
6M Excs Rtn-3.0%-1.3%-19.6%118.9%14.2%105.4%6.4%
12M Excs Rtn-24.8%-4.8%-46.3%52.8%27.1%116.4%11.1%
3Y Excs Rtn--33.9%-67.3%40.8%-6.0%362.5%-6.0%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity14,632,438
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520257.8%
Average Daily Volume4,778,808
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.06
Basic Shares Quantity61,343,218
Short % of Basic Shares23.9%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/12/2025-10.0%-13.9% 
8/7/2025-1.1%-3.9%-0.8%
3/6/2025-6.2%-11.4%-34.1%
11/7/2024-16.5%-27.5%10.6%
8/13/20249.6%8.3%-29.2%
5/15/2024-9.6%-19.5%-41.3%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111
# Negative555
Median Positive9.6%8.3%10.6%
Median Negative-9.6%-13.9%-31.7%
Max Positive9.6%8.3%10.6%
Max Negative-16.5%-27.5%-41.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251114202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025808202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024306202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
63020248142024424B3 6/30/2024
3312024515202410-Q 3/31/2024
123120234192024424B4 12/31/2023
930202311282023S-1/A 9/30/2023
630202311012023S-1/A 6/30/2023
123120222142024DRS 12/31/2022