Serve Robotics (SERV)
Market Price (8/25/2026): $4.675 | Market Cap: $375.5 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Air Freight & Logistics
Serve Robotics (SERV)
Market Price (8/25/2026): $4.675Market Cap: $375.5 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Air Freight & Logistics
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -60% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 426% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -61% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Autonomous Technologies, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Machine Vision, Machine Learning, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -96%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -156% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -193 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2477% Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 48x Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 449% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1791%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2179% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -52% Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 33% Key risksSERV key risks include [1] an inability to achieve profitability and scale monetization due to a high cash burn rate and underutilization of its robots and [2] high customer concentration, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -60% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 426% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -61% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Autonomous Technologies, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Machine Vision, Machine Learning, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -96%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -156% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -193 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2477% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 48x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 449% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1791%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2179% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -52% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 33% |
| Key risksSERV key risks include [1] an inability to achieve profitability and scale monetization due to a high cash burn rate and underutilization of its robots and [2] high customer concentration, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Serve Robotics (SERV) stock has lost about 50% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant Reduction in Full-Year 2026 Revenue Guidance. Serve Robotics drastically cut its full-year 2026 revenue guidance from approximately $26 million, which it had reaffirmed in fiscal Q1 2026, to a revised range of $9 million to $10 million. This represents a substantial reduction of approximately 60-65% from the previous outlook and was a primary driver of the stock's decline.
2. Deterioration of the Uber Eats Partnership. The sharp downward revision in revenue guidance was directly attributed to challenges within the company's partnership with Uber Eats. Serve Robotics reported that delivery volume through Uber declined in fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026) for the first time in 17 quarters due to misaligned operating models and integration issues. The company's CEO indicated that the agreement, set to expire in early 2027, is unlikely to be renewed under current conditions, and Uber reportedly sold its entire stake in Serve Robotics.
Show more
Serve Robotics (SERV) stock has lost about 50% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant Reduction in Full-Year 2026 Revenue Guidance. Serve Robotics drastically cut its full-year 2026 revenue guidance from approximately $26 million, which it had reaffirmed in fiscal Q1 2026, to a revised range of $9 million to $10 million. This represents a substantial reduction of approximately 60-65% from the previous outlook and was a primary driver of the stock's decline.
2. Deterioration of the Uber Eats Partnership. The sharp downward revision in revenue guidance was directly attributed to challenges within the company's partnership with Uber Eats. Serve Robotics reported that delivery volume through Uber declined in fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026) for the first time in 17 quarters due to misaligned operating models and integration issues. The company's CEO indicated that the agreement, set to expire in early 2027, is unlikely to be renewed under current conditions, and Uber reportedly sold its entire stake in Serve Robotics.
3. Persistent Unprofitability Despite Revenue Growth. Despite reporting strong year-over-year revenue growth of 404% to $3.2 million in fiscal Q2 2026, Serve Robotics continued to incur substantial losses. The company posted a GAAP net loss of $64.1 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $(44.5) million for fiscal Q2 2026, far exceeding its revenue. This ongoing significant unprofitability and high cash burn, highlighted by analysts, raised concerns about the company's ability to scale efficiently in the near term, even with a strong liquidity position of $240.4 million in cash and marketable securities as of June 30, 2026.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -50.5% change in SERV stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -81.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.43 | 4.67 | -50.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3 | 8 | 193.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 262.2 | 48.1 | -81.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 74 | 80 | -8.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -50.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SERV | -50.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 6.2% | 59.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 2.5% | 35.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -55.2% change in SERV stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -85.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.43 | 4.67 | -55.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2 | 8 | 300.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 329.0 | 48.1 | -85.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 61 | 80 | -23.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -55.2% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SERV | -55.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.6% | 62.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 8.5% | 43.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -54.2% change in SERV stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -89.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.19 | 4.67 | -54.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1 | 8 | 496.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 439.4 | 48.1 | -89.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 56 | 80 | -29.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -54.2% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SERV | -54.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 21.8% | 52.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 19.0% | 38.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SERV | ||
| Market (SPY) | 72.7% | 22.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 68.9% | 20.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SERV Return | - | - | - | -46% | -23% | -52% | -80% |
| Peers Return | 32% | -30% | 78% | 6% | 43% | 21% | 204% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 104% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SERV Win Rate | - | - | - | 40% | 58% | 38% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 40% | 57% | 50% | 55% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SERV Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -78% | -72% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -53% | -37% | -31% | -41% | -33% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: TRMB, ZBRA, TER, ROK, SYM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/24/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SERV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -61.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 160.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 164 days | 79 days |
In The Past
Serve Robotics's stock fell -61.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 160.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | SERV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -61.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 160.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 164 days | 79 days |
In The Past
Serve Robotics's stock fell -61.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 160.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Serve Robotics (SERV)
Serve Robotics (SERV) is an AI-powered robotics company focused on revolutionizing last-mile delivery in urban environments. Its core mission is to foster a sustainable future by transforming how goods move, aiming to reduce car traffic, lower transportation costs, and decrease emissions. The company achieves this by developing and deploying advanced, autonomous sidewalk delivery robots designed to handle short-distance deliveries efficiently.
The company's primary product is its fleet of low-emissions delivery robots, which currently specialize in last-mile food delivery. Serve's robots offer a reliable and cost-effective delivery solution, enhancing the customer experience and benefiting merchants. Serve Robotics has established significant commercial partnerships and platform integrations with major industry players such as Uber Eats and 7-Eleven. Its strategic investors include prominent companies like Uber, NVIDIA, 7-Ventures, and Delivery Hero.
Serve Robotics targets the rapidly growing on-demand delivery market, particularly for orders within 2.5 miles, which are ideal for robotic delivery. The company projects that, at scale, its robots could reduce average delivery costs to under $1.00, making on-demand delivery more affordable and accessible. With a potential global market for robot and drone delivery estimated to reach $450 billion by 2030, Serve Robotics is positioned to capitalize on this substantial future growth opportunity.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Uber Eats, but with robots handling the deliveries.
- Think of them as the Waymo or Cruise for delivering goods on sidewalks.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Robotic Last-Mile Delivery Service: Operates a fleet of AI-powered sidewalk robots to provide efficient and low-cost last-mile delivery of goods, primarily food, for partner companies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Serve Robotics (SERV) primarily sells its services to other companies. Its major customers include:
- Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) - Serve Robotics has a commercial partnership and agreement with Uber to deploy its robots, including integrations with the Uber Eats division.
- 7-Eleven, Inc. - Serve Robotics has platform-level integrations with 7-Eleven, Inc.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Ali Kashani, Co-founder, CEO
Ali Kashani co-founded Serve Robotics in January 2021 and has served as Chief Executive Officer since. He initially founded what would become Serve Robotics in 2017 as a robotics initiative within Postmates. Following Uber's acquisition of Postmates in 2020, Dr. Kashani led the spinout of Serve as an independent company in 2021. Prior to co-founding Serve, he was Vice President of Postmates Inc.. He also co-founded and served as Chief Technology Officer at Neurio Technology, Inc., a smart home technology company that was acquired by Generac Power Systems. He is an inventor with 15 granted or pending patents.
Brian Read, Chief Financial Officer
Brian Read has served as Serve's Chief Financial Officer since April 2024. He previously served as Controller for Apptronik Inc. from April 2023 to April 2024. Prior to that, he was Global Controller at REE Automotive Ltd. (NASDAQ: REE) from February 2021 to March 2023, and Assistant Global Controller at Coherent Corp (NASDAQ: COHR) from January 2019 to January 2021. Mr. Read began his career at PricewaterhouseCoopers from July 2011 to January 2017. He holds a Bachelor of Science in Business Administration from Duquesne University and is a Certified Public Accountant.
Touraj Parang, President & COO
Touraj Parang has served as Serve's Chief Operating Officer and as a member of the Board since March 2021, and was appointed President in July 2022. Before joining Serve, Mr. Parang was Vice President of Corporate Development at GoDaddy Inc. (NYSE: GDDY). He was the founding Chief Operating Officer of UpCounsel Technologies, Inc., which was acquired by Enduring Ventures, Inc., and co-founder and Chief Operating Officer of Jaxtr, Inc., which was acquired by Sabse Technologies Inc..
Dmitry Demeshchuk, Co-founder & VP of Software
Dmitry Demeshchuk co-founded Serve in January 2021 and has served as Vice President of Software since then. Prior to co-founding Serve, he was a Director at Postmates Inc., where he was a founding engineer in the internal innovation unit Postmates X.
MJ Chun, Co-founder & VP of Product and Design
MJ Chun co-founded Serve in January 2021 and has served as Vice President of Product and Design since. Prior to co-founding Serve, she was a Director at Postmates Inc..
AI Analysis | Feedback
One key risk to Serve Robotics' business is its dependence on raising additional rounds of financing to fund the expansion of its robot fleet. The company explicitly states that it plans to expand its current fleet of over 100 robots by building and deploying hundreds of new robots in the coming years *after* securing further financing.
Another significant risk is the company's reliance on its commercial partnerships, particularly with Uber. Serve has a commercial-scale agreement with Uber to deploy up to 2,000 robots across the United States, making Uber a critical partner for the scaling and widespread adoption of Serve's technology.
A third key risk is the ability to achieve the necessary scale, full utilization, and high autonomy of its robots to reach its projected cost-effectiveness. Serve believes its robots have the potential to reduce average delivery costs to under $1.00, making on-demand delivery more affordable, but this is contingent on achieving these operational efficiencies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
The addressable market for Serve Robotics' main products and services is as follows:
- The potential market for food and parcel delivery by robots and drones may grow to as much as $450 billion globally in 2030.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Serve Robotics (SERV) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives:
- Expansion of Robot Fleet and Deployment: Serve Robotics plans to significantly expand its operational capacity by building and deploying hundreds of new robots in the coming years. This increase in the number of active robots directly correlates with a higher volume of deliveries and, consequently, increased revenue.
- Scaling Existing Commercial Partnerships: The company has established significant platform-level integrations and commercial agreements, particularly with Uber Eats, including a commercial-scale agreement to deploy up to 2,000 robots across the United States. Further scaling these relationships, along with its partnership with 7-Eleven, Inc., will lead to a substantial increase in delivery volume and revenue.
- Geographic Expansion within the United States: The agreement with Uber to deploy robots across the United States indicates a clear strategy for expanding Serve Robotics' operational footprint beyond its current locations. Entering new markets will expose the company to a larger customer base and new revenue streams.
- Capturing Increased Market Share by Leveraging Cost Efficiencies in a Growing Market: Serve Robotics aims to reduce the average delivery cost to under $1.00 through full utilization and high autonomy, making on-demand delivery more affordable. This cost advantage, combined with the projected growth of the global food and parcel delivery market to as much as $450 billion by 2030, positions Serve to capture a larger share of the expanding on-demand delivery market.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Inbound Investments
- In February 2021, Uber invested cash into Serve Robotics and contributed intellectual property, in return for acquiring a minority equity interest in the business.
- Serve Robotics’ strategic investors include NVIDIA, Uber, 7-Ventures, and Delivery Hero’s corporate venture units.
Capital Expenditures
- Serve Robotics plans to expand its current fleet of over 100 robots by building and deploying hundreds of new robots in the coming years, after raising additional rounds of financing.
Peer Outperformance in Air Freight & Logistics
null| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction & Engineering | 31 | 18.6% | 119.5% | 200.2% | CDNL 3072% · FIX 2084% · STRL 2083% |
| Marine Transportation | 4 | 55.4% | 58.5% | 147.6% | MATX 207% · KEX 152% · SFL 143% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | 11.7% | 64.9% | 118.6% | CAT 312% · ALSN 277% · WAB 250% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 55 | 7.7% | 62.2% | 79.9% | ATI 1067% · FTAI 893% · DFNS 883% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -5.5% | 73.0% | 69.4% | UBER 91% · CAR 69% · LYFT -64% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 71 | 10.0% | 54.7% | 54.5% | CRS 1403% · PSIX 808% · GHM 697% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 36.1% | 73.7% | 50.1% | FSTR 112% · CSX 65% · UNP 57% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 33.6% | 11.6% | 44.3% | XPO 256% · R 249% · CVLG 219% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 18 | 1.2% | 36.5% | 33.9% | DXPE 521% · AIT 300% · URI 221% |
| Diversified Support Services | 34 | 8.3% | 34.2% | 33.0% | LIME 4698% · WLFC 362% · TH 356% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 41 | 23.2% | 48.8% | 24.4% | POWL 2312% · BE 859% · VRT 826% |
| Building Products | 33 | -10.1% | 14.7% | 24.0% | LMB 421% · GFF 413% · PPIH 278% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 15.4% | 24.7% | 5.1% | RCMT 741% · CSW 151% · TTI 136% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 28 | -8.1% | 17.8% | 3.3% | CECO 854% · ADUR 623% · GEO 318% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 10 | 13.0% | 23.5% | 3.2% | TILE 180% · PBI 165% · EBF 58% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | -7.6% | -18.4% | -1.9% | HURN 224% · CRAI 95% · GRNQ 26% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 17 | -3.2% | -3.1% | -16.4% | BLBD 185% · DE 84% · GENC 66% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -29.8% | -8.9% | -24.1% | EXLS 57% · BR 18% · G -22% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | 5.4% | -2.7% | -27.9% | LTM 2383% · UAL 139% · SKYW 112% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 21 | 8.7% | -19.1% | -34.5% | BBSI 89% · ADP 52% · KFY 34% |
| Air Freight & Logistics ← | 12 | -13.9% | -23.2% | -39.0% | CHRW 78% · FDX 70% · EXPD 60% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 10 | -37.3% | -15.9% | -41.9% | CIX 114% · MG 97% · BCO 53% |
| Airport Services | 3 | -70.1% | -69.9% | -57.0% | JOBY -35% · ASLE -57% · UP -100% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 211.99 |
| Mkt Cap | 15.7 |
| Rev LTM | 4,123 |
| Op Inc LTM | 820 |
| FCF LTM | 798 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 572 |
| CFO LTM | 937 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 684 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 16.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 21.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 34.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 13.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.1% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $4.67 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/07/2024 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -73.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $5.71 | $8.99 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -18.3% | -48.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 80.4% | 90.7% |
| Downside Capture | 542.57 | 474.89 |
| Upside Capture | 202.89 | 298.16 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 59.6% | 52.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 4.31 | 3.23 | 3.25 | 3.36 | 3.59 | 0.01 |
| Up Beta | 7.54 | 5.75 | 4.94 | 4.44 | 3.17 | -0.58 |
| Down Beta | 3.50 | 0.97 | 1.48 | 2.17 | 3.92 | 0.73 |
| Up Capture | 118% | 124% | 153% | 289% | 740% | 2669% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 23 | 52 | 113 | 274 |
| Down Capture | 524% | 387% | 370% | 256% | 192% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 16 | 27 | 40 | 74 | 138 | 320 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SERV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SERV | -49.7% | 90.5% | -0.36 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 20.1% | 17.1% | 0.90 | 38.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.2% | 12.9% | 1.23 | 53.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 39.0% | 28.8% | 1.14 | 19.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 40.9% | 20.2% | 1.58 | -4.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.9% | 13.8% | 0.70 | 7.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -30.4% | 44.2% | -0.69 | 43.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SERV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SERV | -29.5% | 184.9% | 0.39 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.8% | 17.6% | 0.56 | 20.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.2% | 0.57 | 22.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.6% | 18.6% | 0.90 | 1.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.2% | 19.6% | 0.41 | -2.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.4% | 18.9% | 0.02 | 8.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.2% | 52.8% | 0.40 | 18.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SERV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SERV | -16.0% | 184.9% | 0.39 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.7% | 20.0% | 0.60 | 20.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 22.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.9% | 16.3% | 0.65 | 1.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 18.1% | 0.35 | -2.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 8.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.1% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 18.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/17/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/6/2026 | -10.5% | -13.0% | |
| 5/7/2026 | -3.5% | -3.9% | -16.3% |
| 3/11/2026 | 10.1% | -0.5% | -16.4% |
| 11/12/2025 | -10.0% | -13.9% | 4.8% |
| 8/7/2025 | -1.1% | -3.9% | -0.8% |
| 5/8/2025 | 13.7% | 43.1% | 91.6% |
| 3/6/2025 | -6.2% | -11.4% | -34.1% |
| 11/7/2024 | -16.5% | -27.5% | 10.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| # Negative | 7 | 8 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 10.1% | 25.7% | 10.6% |
| Median Negative | -9.6% | -12.2% | -22.8% |
| Max Positive | 13.7% | 43.1% | 91.6% |
| Max Negative | -16.5% | -27.5% | -41.3% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/6/2026 | -10.5% | -13.0% | |
| 5/7/2026 | -3.5% | -3.9% | -16.3% |
| 3/11/2026 | 10.1% | -0.5% | -16.4% |
| 11/12/2025 | -10.0% | -13.9% | 4.8% |
| 8/7/2025 | -1.1% | -3.9% | -0.8% |
| 5/8/2025 | 13.7% | 43.1% | 91.6% |
| 3/6/2025 | -6.2% | -11.4% | -34.1% |
| 11/7/2024 | -16.5% | -27.5% | 10.6% |
| 8/13/2024 | 9.6% | 8.3% | -29.2% |
| 5/15/2024 | -9.6% | -19.5% | -41.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| # Negative | 7 | 8 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 10.1% | 25.7% | 10.6% |
| Median Negative | -9.6% | -12.2% | -22.8% |
| Max Positive | 13.7% | 43.1% | 91.6% |
| Max Negative | -16.5% | -27.5% | -41.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/06/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/14/2024 | 424B3 |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/15/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 04/19/2024 | 424B4 |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/28/2023 | S-1/A |
| 06/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | S-1/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/14/2024 | DRS |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/06/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/14/2024 | 424B3 |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/15/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 04/19/2024 | 424B4 |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/28/2023 | S-1/A |
| 06/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | S-1/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/14/2024 | DRS |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 8/7/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 9.00 Mil | 9.50 Mil | 10.00 Mil | -63.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 26.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP operating expense | 140.00 Mil | 145.00 Mil | 150.00 Mil | -12.1% | Lowered | Guidance: 165.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/12/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Revenue | 2.50 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 900.0% | ||||||
| 2025 Robot Deployment | 2,000 | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 8/19/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Read, Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8192026 | 4.80 | 9,700 | 46,560 | 1,324,810 | Form |
| 2 | Read, Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8192026 | 4.56 | 6,129 | 27,948 | 1,302,801 | Form |
| 3 | Kashani, Ali | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 8192026 | 4.56 | 45,158 | 205,920 | 14,742,174 | Form |
| 4 | Parang, Touraj | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 8192026 | 4.55 | 37,993 | 172,703 | 5,728,650 | Form |
| 5 | Read, Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8192026 | 5.24 | 25,240 | 132,258 | 1,529,194 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Read, Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8192026 | 4.80 | 9,700 | 46,560 | 1,324,810 | Form |
| 2 | Read, Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8192026 | 4.56 | 6,129 | 27,948 | 1,302,801 | Form |
| 3 | Kashani, Ali | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 8192026 | 4.56 | 45,158 | 205,920 | 14,742,174 | Form |
| 4 | Parang, Touraj | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 8192026 | 4.55 | 37,993 | 172,703 | 5,728,650 | Form |
| 5 | Read, Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8192026 | 5.24 | 25,240 | 132,258 | 1,529,194 | Form |
| 6 | Goldberg, David Michael | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 7.20 | 10,600 | 76,320 | 252,900 | Form | |
| 7 | Read, Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 7.24 | 1,496 | 10,831 | 2,295,594 | Form |
| 8 | Parang, Touraj | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 7.24 | 4,219 | 30,546 | 9,399,287 | Form |
| 9 | Kashani, Ali | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 7.24 | 15,885 | 115,007 | 23,733,379 | Form |
| 10 | Read, Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5082026 | 9.26 | 201 | 1,861 | 2,949,930 | Form |
| 11 | Parang, Touraj | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 5082026 | 9.26 | 3,888 | 36,003 | 12,060,807 | Form |
| 12 | Kashani, Ali | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 5082026 | 9.26 | 14,644 | 135,603 | 30,502,218 | Form |
| 13 | Read, Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5082026 | 9.29 | 2,790 | 25,919 | 2,961,355 | Form |
| 14 | Parang, Touraj | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 5082026 | 9.29 | 5,993 | 55,675 | 12,136,001 | Form |
| 15 | Kashani, Ali | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 5082026 | 9.29 | 11,753 | 109,185 | 30,737,080 | Form |
| 16 | Read, Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 9.29 | 1,179 | 10,953 | 2,987,274 | Form |
| 17 | Read, Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 4092026 | 8.62 | 200 | 1,724 | 2,781,993 | Form |
| 18 | Parang, Touraj | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 4092026 | 8.62 | 3,861 | 33,282 | 11,312,405 | Form |
| 19 | Kashani, Ali | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 4092026 | 8.62 | 14,541 | 125,343 | 28,621,615 | Form |
| 20 | Read, Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 4012026 | 8.03 | 1,263 | 10,142 | 2,593,184 | Form |
| 21 | Armenta, Anthony | Chief Software & Data Officer | Direct | Sell | 3162026 | 9.82 | 3,567 | 35,028 | 5,311,825 | Form |
| 22 | Abraham, Euan | Chief Hardware & Mftg Offcr | Direct | Sell | 3112026 | 9.72 | 1,390 | 13,511 | 2,290,489 | Form |
| 23 | Read, Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3112026 | 9.72 | 203 | 1,973 | 3,151,224 | Form |
| 24 | Parang, Touraj | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 3112026 | 9.72 | 3,922 | 38,122 | 12,793,513 | Form |
| 25 | Kashani, Ali | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 3112026 | 9.72 | 13,500 | 131,220 | 32,415,364 | Form |
| 26 | Dunn, Evan | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 9.44 | 538 | 5,079 | 1,909,655 | Form |
| 27 | Read, Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 9.61 | 1,268 | 12,185 | 3,117,513 | Form |
| 28 | Armenta, Anthony | Chief Software & Data Officer | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 9.38 | 3,432 | 32,192 | 5,107,279 | Form |
| 29 | Read, Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 2122026 | 10.17 | 185 | 1,881 | 3,312,074 | Form |
| 30 | Abraham, Euan | Chief Hardware & Mftg Offcr | Direct | Sell | 2122026 | 10.17 | 1,375 | 13,984 | 2,410,666 | Form |
| 31 | Parang, Touraj | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 2122026 | 10.17 | 3,558 | 36,185 | 13,425,692 | Form |
| 32 | Kashani, Ali | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 2122026 | 10.17 | 9,259 | 94,164 | 34,053,370 | Form |
| 33 | Dunn, Evan | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 2092026 | 9.56 | 688 | 6,577 | 1,939,074 | Form |
| 34 | Read, Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 2052026 | 10.33 | 3,185 | 32,901 | 3,366,092 | Form |
| 35 | Parang, Touraj | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 2052026 | 10.33 | 5,998 | 61,959 | 13,673,666 | Form |
| 36 | Kashani, Ali | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 2052026 | 10.33 | 8,101 | 83,683 | 34,684,762 | Form |
| 37 | Dunn, Evan | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 2052026 | 10.33 | 2,700 | 27,891 | 2,102,362 | Form |
| 38 | Armenta, Anthony | Chief Software & Data Officer | Direct | Sell | 2052026 | 10.33 | 3,223 | 33,294 | 5,659,993 | Form |
| 39 | Abraham, Euan | Chief Hardware & Mftg Offcr | Direct | Sell | 2052026 | 10.33 | 3,284 | 33,924 | 2,462,796 | Form |
| 40 | Read, Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 2052026 | 10.83 | 1,547 | 16,754 | 3,563,514 | Form |
| 41 | Armenta, Anthony | Chief Software & Data Officer | Direct | Sell | 1142026 | 14.27 | 3,893 | 55,553 | 7,864,782 | Form |
| 42 | Dunn, Evan | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 1072026 | 12.81 | 598 | 7,660 | 2,641,678 | Form |
| 43 | Read, Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12312025 | 10.37 | 1,863 | 19,319 | 3,477,434 | Form |
| 44 | Armenta, Anthony | Chief Software & Data Officer | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 11.96 | 5,003 | 59,836 | 6,638,207 | Form |
| 45 | Read, Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12152025 | 13.15 | 6,700 | 88,105 | 4,434,167 | Form |
| 46 | Parang, Touraj | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 12152025 | 13.07 | 5,000 | 65,350 | 17,431,341 | Form |
| 47 | Abraham, Euan | Chief Hardware & Mftg Offcr | Direct | Sell | 12152025 | 11.87 | 1,917 | 22,755 | 2,882,831 | Form |
| 48 | Read, Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12152025 | 11.87 | 371 | 4,404 | 4,082,081 | Form |
| 49 | Parang, Touraj | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 12152025 | 11.87 | 6,300 | 74,781 | 15,890,262 | Form |
| 50 | Kashani, Ali | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 12152025 | 11.87 | 16,730 | 198,585 | 40,059,612 | Form |
| 51 | Dunn, Evan | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 12092025 | 13.42 | 504 | 6,764 | 2,775,498 | Form |
| 52 | Read, Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12052025 | 13.05 | 7,500 | 97,875 | 4,492,724 | Form |
| 53 | Read, Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12032025 | 9.82 | 2,057 | 20,200 | 3,454,381 | Form |
| 54 | Armenta, Anthony | Chief Software & Data Officer | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 9.32 | 49,082 | 457,297 | 5,217,865 | Form |
| 55 | Abraham, Euan | Chief Hardware & Mftg Offcr | Direct | Sell | 11062025 | 10.80 | 1,840 | 19,872 | 2,643,667 | Form |
| 56 | Parang, Touraj | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 11062025 | 10.74 | 6,100 | 65,514 | 14,445,203 | Form |
| 57 | Kashani, Ali | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 11062025 | 10.78 | 16,170 | 174,313 | 36,561,362 | Form |
| 58 | Armenta, Anthony | Chief Software & Data Officer | Direct | Sell | 11052025 | 11.63 | 3,545 | 41,228 | 7,084,054 | Form |
| 59 | Dunn, Evan | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 11052025 | 11.62 | 2,987 | 34,709 | 2,409,082 | Form |
| 60 | Abraham, Euan | Chief Hardware & Mftg Offcr | Direct | Sell | 11052025 | 11.69 | 3,915 | 45,766 | 2,883,035 | Form |
| 61 | Parang, Touraj | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 11052025 | 11.78 | 9,500 | 111,910 | 15,915,852 | Form |
| 62 | Kashani, Ali | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 11052025 | 11.63 | 13,310 | 154,795 | 39,632,272 | Form |
| 63 | Read, Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 10302025 | 13.32 | 1,270 | 16,916 | 4,712,976 | Form |
| 64 | Abraham, Euan | Chief Hardware & Mftg Offcr | Direct | Sell | 10172025 | 17.99 | 25,000 | 449,750 | 4,507,197 | Form |
| 65 | Dunn, Evan | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 10072025 | 15.09 | 20,458 | 308,725 | 3,173,700 | Form |
| 66 | Abraham, Euan | Chief Hardware & Mftg Offcr | Direct | Sell | 10072025 | 15.19 | 1,480 | 22,481 | 3,805,687 | Form |
| 67 | Read, Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 10072025 | 15.29 | 176 | 2,691 | 5,429,433 | Form |
| 68 | Parang, Touraj | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 10072025 | 15.25 | 4,825 | 73,581 | 20,749,013 | Form |
| 69 | Kashani, Ali | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 10072025 | 15.08 | 12,930 | 194,984 | 51,589,766 | Form |
| 70 | Read, Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9302025 | 11.70 | 1,225 | 14,332 | 4,156,694 | Form |
| 71 | Goldberg, David Michael | Direct | Sell | 9242025 | 13.58 | 5,000 | 67,900 | 620,946 | Form | |
| 72 | Abraham, Euan | Chief Hardware & Mftg Offcr | Direct | Sell | 9222025 | 14.99 | 25,000 | 374,750 | 3,403,015 | Form |
| 73 | Read, Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9182025 | 12.70 | 3,941 | 50,051 | 4,527,525 | Form |
| 74 | Abraham, Euan | Chief Hardware & Mftg Offcr | Direct | Sell | 9182025 | 12.38 | 8,433 | 104,401 | 3,119,995 | Form |
| 75 | Read, Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9112025 | 11.54 | 4,319 | 49,820 | 4,157,664 | Form |
| 76 | Abraham, Euan | Chief Hardware & Mftg Offcr | Direct | Sell | 9082025 | 10.60 | 12,603 | 133,592 | 2,760,791 | Form |
| 77 | Read, Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9082025 | 10.44 | 7,175 | 74,932 | 3,809,337 | Form |
| 78 | Parang, Touraj | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 9082025 | 10.35 | 53,690 | 555,692 | 14,132,056 | Form |
| 79 | Kashani, Ali | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 9082025 | 10.33 | 164,735 | 1,701,713 | 35,473,241 | Form |
| 80 | Read, Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9022025 | 10.18 | 1,330 | 13,539 | 3,786,278 | Form |
| 81 | Vincent, Olivier | Direct | Sell | 8292025 | 11.49 | 8,000 | 91,928 | 251,975 | Form | |
| 82 | Read, Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8252025 | 9.82 | 10,216 | 100,321 | 3,665,443 | Form |
| 83 | Dunn, Evan | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 8252025 | 10.01 | 5,000 | 50,050 | 2,309,978 | Form |
| 84 | Read, Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8182025 | 9.82 | 10,195 | 100,145 | 3,766,914 | Form |
| 85 | Armenta, Anthony | Chief Software & Data Officer | Direct | Sell | 8062025 | 10.68 | 2,915 | 31,132 | 6,543,252 | Form |
| 86 | Dunn, Evan | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 8062025 | 10.68 | 2,015 | 21,520 | 2,517,992 | Form |
| 87 | Read, Brian | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8062025 | 10.64 | 2,592 | 27,579 | 4,188,691 | Form |
| 88 | Abraham, Euan | Chief Hardware & Mftg Offcr | Direct | Sell | 8062025 | 10.64 | 2,130 | 22,663 | 2,905,305 | Form |
| 89 | Parang, Touraj | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 8062025 | 10.64 | 5,565 | 59,212 | 15,099,288 | Form |
| 90 | Kashani, Ali | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 8062025 | 10.74 | 7,467 | 80,196 | 38,650,435 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 25, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Air Freight & Logistics Resources |
| Air Cargo World |
| Logistics Management |
| Journal of Commerce (JOC) |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.