Rockwell Automation (ROK)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $404.02 | Market Cap: $45.5 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Electrical Components & Equipment
Rockwell Automation (ROK)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $404.02Market Cap: $45.5 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Electrical Components & Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.3% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -9.4% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Factory Automation, Process / Warehouse Automation, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Factory Automation, Process / Warehouse Automation, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -9.4% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.3% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ROK Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For Rockwell Automation (ROK), the positive stock movement around 18% during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025, can be attributed to several key factors. While specific daily fluctuations for an 18% rise within this exact timeframe are not directly detailed in the available information, the overall strong performance for 2025, which saw a 41.03% increase, supports such a movement within a portion of that year.
1. Strong Analyst Ratings and Positive Outlook: Several analysts maintained a "Buy" or "Moderate Buy" consensus rating for ROK as of late 2025, with an average 12-month price target indicating potential upside. This positive sentiment from the analyst community often fuels investor confidence and contributes to stock appreciation.
2. Anticipated Increase in FY25 Segment Margin and Raised EPS Guidance: Rockwell Automation's positive outlook was significantly bolstered by an expected increase in the fiscal year 2025 segment margin to approximately 20%. This improvement was projected to be driven by effective cost reduction and margin expansion initiatives, which were expected to generate over $250 million year-over-year. Additionally, the company raised its non-GAAP EPS guidance to a range of $9.20 to $10.20, reflecting strong anticipated financial performance.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ROK Return | 26% | 41% | -24% | 23% | -6% | 44% | 122% |
| Peers Return | 75% | -27% | -39% | -2% | -18% | 25% | -22% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ROK Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 33% | 50% | 42% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 49% | 38% | 48% | 32% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ROK Max Drawdown | -40% | -4% | -45% | 0% | -19% | -23% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -32% | -52% | -26% | -41% | -35% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HON, CAE, QS, ENVX, FCEL. See ROK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ROK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -45.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1125 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 64 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 424 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -76.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 325.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 686 days | 1480 days |
Compare to HON, CAE, QS, ENVX, FCEL
In The Past
Rockwell Automation's stock fell -45.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/15/2021. A -45.6% loss requires a 83.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ROK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Rockwell Automation
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 20.16 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.2 |
| Rev LTM | 2,443 |
| Op Inc LTM | 241 |
| FCF LTM | 162 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 30 |
| CFO LTM | 405 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 286 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.2 |
| P/S | 3.3 |
| P/EBIT | 6.0 |
| P/E | 10.6 |
| P/CFO | 4.5 |
| Total Yield | -1.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -2.8% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 10.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 20.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 4.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 15.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 4.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -10.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -58.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2102025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1312024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 1262023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 1272022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11092021 | 10-K 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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