Sera Prognostics (SERA)
Market Price (11/6/2026): $2.07 | Market Cap: $82.3 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Sera Prognostics (SERA)
Market Price (11/6/2026): $2.07Market Cap: $82.3 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -39% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, and Personalized Diagnostics. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -108%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -60% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -37 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -38716% Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 1,100x Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -23% Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 4123% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -29691%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -30236% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -37% Significant short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 21.54 Key risksSERA key risks include [1] persistent net losses and extremely low revenue that challenge its financial viability, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -39% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, and Personalized Diagnostics. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -108%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -60% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -37 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -38716% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 1,100x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -23% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 4123% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -29691%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -30236% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -37% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 21.54 |
| Key risksSERA key risks include [1] persistent net losses and extremely low revenue that challenge its financial viability, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Sera Prognostics (SERA) stock has remained largely at the same level since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Fiscal Q3 2026 Financial Results and Revenue Conversion Challenges.
Sera Prognostics reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $0.04 million, which missed analysts' consensus estimate of $0.07 million by 47.5%. GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) also missed estimates, coming in at -$0.16 versus a consensus of -$0.14. Despite a significant 54% sequential increase in PreTRM® test volume and a 34% sequential rise in ordering healthcare providers during the quarter ended September 30, 2026, the company noted that a higher proportion of low- or non-reimbursed tests reduced average selling prices and constrained revenue conversion.
2. Gradual Progress in Reimbursement and Commercialization.
The company achieved a notable commercial milestone with Florida becoming the second state, after Illinois, to provide Medicaid coverage for the PreTRM® test, including an established fee schedule at $450 per test in Florida. These two states collectively represent approximately 7 million Medicaid beneficiaries and 140,000 annual Medicaid births. Sera Prognostics is also conducting four commercial-payer pilot programs, including two with major national health plans. However, management expects a slow monetization curve, anticipating that converting practices to high-volume use can take 12–18 months and projecting only low-single-digit market penetration in each state during the initial year of coverage.
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Sera Prognostics (SERA) stock has remained largely at the same level since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Fiscal Q3 2026 Financial Results and Revenue Conversion Challenges.
Sera Prognostics reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $0.04 million, which missed analysts' consensus estimate of $0.07 million by 47.5%. GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) also missed estimates, coming in at -$0.16 versus a consensus of -$0.14. Despite a significant 54% sequential increase in PreTRM® test volume and a 34% sequential rise in ordering healthcare providers during the quarter ended September 30, 2026, the company noted that a higher proportion of low- or non-reimbursed tests reduced average selling prices and constrained revenue conversion.
2. Gradual Progress in Reimbursement and Commercialization.
The company achieved a notable commercial milestone with Florida becoming the second state, after Illinois, to provide Medicaid coverage for the PreTRM® test, including an established fee schedule at $450 per test in Florida. These two states collectively represent approximately 7 million Medicaid beneficiaries and 140,000 annual Medicaid births. Sera Prognostics is also conducting four commercial-payer pilot programs, including two with major national health plans. However, management expects a slow monetization curve, anticipating that converting practices to high-volume use can take 12–18 months and projecting only low-single-digit market penetration in each state during the initial year of coverage.
3. Positive Developments in Clinical Evidence and International Expansion.
Sera Prognostics continues to strengthen its clinical evidence base, with the planned publication of a health economic analysis from its PRIME randomized controlled trial in fiscal Q4 2026. Earlier in the period, a subgroup analysis from the PRIME trial was published, demonstrating a 22% reduction in NICU admissions among first-time mothers. Additionally, the company has initiated the CE Mark submission for PreTRM® Global, a kit-based version of its test, in Europe, following the completion of its registration study, with an aim for approval in fiscal year 2027.
4. Stable Cash Runway Amidst Divergent Analyst Outlooks.
Sera Prognostics reported a solid cash position, ending fiscal Q3 2026 with $72.8 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, which the company expects to fund its operations into fiscal year 2029. This financial stability provides a buffer against current losses. Analyst sentiment is mixed but generally positive, with a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating and an average price target of $5.50 from three analysts, implying a significant upside of 169.61% from the stock's price of $2.04 at the close of November 3, 2026. However, some financial models suggest a potential downside, creating a balanced and stable trading environment.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 2.0% change in SERA stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 68.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.04 | 2.08 | 2.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 68.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 1,798.7 | 1,100.5 | -38.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 50 | 51 | -1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 2.0% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SERA | 2.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | -1.9% | -14.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 13.8% | 10.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 7.2% change in SERA stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 18.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.94 | 2.08 | 7.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 18.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 1,197.7 | 1,100.5 | -8.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 50 | 51 | -1.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 7.2% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SERA | 7.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.3% | -2.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | 27.2% | 12.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -36.6% change in SERA stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -26.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 3.28 | 2.08 | -36.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | -11.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 1,490.2 | 1,100.5 | -26.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 49 | 51 | -3.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -36.6% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SERA | -36.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.4% | 12.0% |
| Sector (XLV) | 29.8% | 18.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 23.1% change in SERA stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 685.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.69 | 2.08 | 23.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | -74.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 140.1 | 1,100.5 | 685.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 31 | 51 | -38.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 23.1% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SERA | 23.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.3% | 7.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | 55.5% | 7.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SERA Return | -42% | -82% | 375% | 36% | -64% | -29% | -83% |
| Peers Return | 42% | -58% | 28% | 29% | 2% | 17% | 18% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SERA Win Rate | 33% | 17% | 58% | 58% | 42% | 36% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 31% | 50% | 50% | 48% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 45% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SERA Max Drawdown | - | -87% | -64% | -55% | -82% | -57% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -43% | -63% | -41% | -37% | -40% | -45% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NTRA, BLLN, MYGN, FLGT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SERA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -46.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 88.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 89 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -84.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 539.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 602 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Sera Prognostics's stock fell 0.0% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | SERA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -46.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 88.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 89 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -84.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 539.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 602 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Sera Prognostics's stock fell 0.0% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Sera Prognostics (SERA)
Sera Prognostics (SERA) is a women's health diagnostic company dedicated to improving pregnancy outcomes through the discovery, development, and commercialization of advanced biomarker tests. Headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah, the company focuses on creating innovative diagnostic tools that provide crucial information for better managing maternal and fetal health throughout pregnancy.
The company's primary product is the PreTRM test, a proprietary blood-based biomarker test specifically designed to predict the risk of spontaneous preterm birth in women with asymptomatic singleton pregnancies. This test allows healthcare providers to identify at-risk mothers early, potentially enabling interventions to improve outcomes. Sera Prognostics primarily serves the obstetrics and gynecology market, aiming to provide physicians and pregnant individuals with actionable insights to prevent or manage serious pregnancy complications.
Beyond the PreTRM test, Sera Prognostics is actively building a robust pipeline of product candidates targeting a wide range of critical pregnancy-related conditions. These include tests for preeclampsia, molecular time-to-birth, gestational diabetes mellitus, fetal growth restriction, stillbirth, and postpartum depression. By expanding its diagnostic portfolio, Sera Prognostics aims to become a comprehensive provider of essential prognostic information, ultimately striving to reduce adverse pregnancy outcomes and enhance the health of mothers and babies.
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Here are a few brief analogies for Sera Prognostics (SERA):
- Exact Sciences for pregnancy diagnostics.
- Natera for predicting pregnancy risks.
- Guardant Health for pregnancy biomarkers.
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- PreTRM test: A blood-based biomarker test to predict the risk of spontaneous preterm birth in asymptomatic singleton pregnancies.
- Product Candidates Pipeline: A portfolio of developing biomarker tests for various pregnancy-related conditions, including preeclampsia, gestational diabetes mellitus, and stillbirth.
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Sera Prognostics (SERA) sells primarily to other companies within the healthcare sector.
The company's major customers are the **healthcare providers** (primarily obstetricians and gynecologists) and the **medical practices, clinics, or hospitals** where they operate. These providers order Sera Prognostics' PreTRM test for their patients, and Sera Prognostics performs the testing services in its own CLIA-certified laboratory.
Due to the direct-to-provider sales model and the fragmented nature of the healthcare provider market, Sera Prognostics does not publicly disclose specific named major customer companies, nor are there any public companies identified as major customers of SERA.
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Zhenya Lindgardt, President and CEO
Zhenya Lindgardt was appointed President and CEO of Sera Prognostics in May 2023. She previously served as the Chief Executive Officer of The Commons Project Foundation, a non-profit public trust. From August 2020 to October 2021, she was a Managing Director of her family office. Prior to that, from April 2019 to August 2020, Ms. Lindgardt held the position of Vice President of Platform and Customer Engagement at Uber Technologies Inc. She also spent 19 years at The Boston Consulting Group, where she served as a Senior Partner and Managing Director from October 2000 to April 2019.
Austin Aerts, Chief Financial Officer
Austin Aerts has over a decade of finance and accounting experience, with eight years specifically in the medical diagnostics industry. He joined Sera Prognostics in July 2017, and prior to his appointment as CFO, he served as the company's Vice President of Finance and Corporate Controller. Mr. Aerts played a key role in Sera Prognostics' initial public offering in 2021. Before joining Sera, he worked in the finance department at Myriad Genetics and as an assurance professional at Ernst & Young LLP, where he served various public and private clients, including Sera.
Lee Anderson, Chief Commercial Officer
Lee Anderson brings over three decades of leadership experience in the healthcare sector, specifically in sales, marketing, customer service, strategic accounts, and training. His career includes significant roles at Genomic Health and Exact Sciences, where he was instrumental in driving revenue growth and launching new products. At Genomic Health, which was acquired by Exact Sciences, he rose to Vice President, leading US Oncology Sales and Global Customer Service. Post-acquisition, he served as General Manager of Precision Oncology at Exact Sciences, contributing to nationwide sales growth. Mr. Anderson also held the role of Chief Commercial Officer at Biofidelity Inc.
Dr. Tiffany Inglis, Chief Medical Officer
Dr. Tiffany Inglis is a board-certified Obstetrician Gynecologist with over 25 years of experience in direct patient care and the healthcare payer industry. She joined Sera Prognostics as Chief Medical Officer in October 2025. Prior to Sera, Dr. Inglis served as Chief Medical Officer at Carelon Health, where she expanded evidence-based intervention programs. She also held roles at Elevance Health, beginning in 2017, where she contributed to redesigning the Women and Children's Health portfolio and leading external partnerships. Dr. Inglis received her medical degree from the Medical College of Ohio in 2002 and practiced as an OB/GYN for over a decade.
Jay Boniface, PhD, Chief Scientific Officer
Dr. Jay Boniface has served as Chief Scientific Officer of Sera Prognostics since November 2011, having previously been the Vice President of Research from September 2011. In his role, Dr. Boniface is involved with product development. He has prior experience as a scientist and program director for several biotechnology companies focused on protein discovery and drug development, including Myrexis, Myriad Genetics, Prolexys Pharmaceuticals, and Eos Biotechnology. Dr. Boniface earned his Ph.D. in biochemistry at Albany Medical College and was a postdoctoral scholar in molecular immunology at Stanford University.
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The key risks to Sera Prognostics' business include:
- Reimbursement and Market Adoption: A primary risk for Sera Prognostics is the challenge of securing broad coverage and adequate reimbursement for its PreTRM test from third-party payers, including commercial insurers, Medicaid, and Medicare. Without widespread reimbursement and market acceptance by healthcare providers, the company's ability to generate significant revenue and achieve profitability for its diagnostic tests is substantially hindered. Sera Prognostics is actively engaging with payers and health systems to establish payment contracts and facilitate broad commercial coverage.
- Limited Revenue and Need for Additional Capital: Sera Prognostics has historically reported significant net losses and low revenues, with the PreTRM test currently representing substantially all of the company's revenue. While the company has raised capital through public offerings to extend its financial runway, there is an ongoing risk that it may need to secure additional financing if revenue generation does not accelerate as anticipated, which is directly tied to the successful reimbursement and market adoption of its tests.
- Competition and Scientific/Market Acceptance: Despite the PreTRM test being described as the only broadly validated, commercially available blood-based biomarker test for spontaneous preterm birth prediction, Sera Prognostics operates in a competitive and rapidly evolving diagnostic market. The continued success of the PreTRM test and future pipeline products depends on broad scientific and market acceptance among physicians and patients, as well as maintaining its competitive edge against existing and potential new diagnostic solutions. Factors like the integration into clinical guidelines and ongoing physician awareness are crucial for driving adoption.
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The addressable markets for Sera Prognostics' main products and services are significant, primarily focusing on preterm birth diagnostics and a portfolio of product candidates for various pregnancy-related conditions, including preeclampsia.
Preterm Birth Diagnostics (PreTRM Test)
- The global preterm birth and PROM (Premature Rupture of Membranes) testing market size was estimated at USD 1.56 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 3.26 billion by 2033. Another estimate places the global market at USD 2.25 billion in 2024, with a projected growth to USD 8.76 billion by 2033.
- The U.S. preterm birth and PROM testing market generated revenue of USD 528.3 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 1,095.4 million by 2033.
Preeclampsia Diagnostics
- The global preeclampsia diagnostics market was valued at USD 1.12 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 1.46 billion by 2034. Another source reported the global preeclampsia diagnostics market size as USD 1.29 billion in 2025, with an increase predicted to approximately USD 1.70 billion by 2034.
- The U.S. preeclampsia laboratory testing market is valued at USD 1.1 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 1.8 billion by 2033. North America held approximately 43% of the global preeclampsia diagnostics market in 2024.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Sera Prognostics (SERA)
- Expanded Payer Coverage and Commercial Adoption of the PreTRM Test in the U.S.: Sera Prognostics anticipates significant revenue growth from securing broader reimbursement and driving increased adoption of its PreTRM test across the United States. This includes active engagement with both commercial insurers and Medicaid programs in multiple states, leveraging the positive clinical and health economic outcomes demonstrated by the pivotal PRIME study. The company's strategy involves expanding its sales team and focusing on targeted geographies to accelerate market penetration.
- Geographic Expansion into European Markets: The company plans to expand its commercial efforts into Europe. Sera Prognostics aims to submit for a CE mark and begin implementing its PreTRM test in key European countries, specifically the UK, France, and Germany, by mid-2026. This expansion into new international markets represents a new avenue for revenue generation.
- Integration of PreTRM into Clinical Guidelines and Enhanced Physician Awareness: Publication of the full PRIME study results, along with additional health economic data, is expected to drive increased awareness and acceptance of the PreTRM test within the medical community. Efforts to engage with professional societies and guideline groups are crucial for establishing the PreTRM test as a standard of care, which would significantly boost its widespread adoption and associated revenue.
- Strategic Partnerships and Pilot Programs: Sera Prognostics is actively pursuing and initiating pilot programs, particularly with Medicaid plans, to demonstrate the real-world value and cost-saving benefits of the PreTRM test. The company is also in discussions with organizations that have regional and national reach across various lines of business, indicating a strategy to form strategic alliances that can accelerate market access and test adoption.
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Share Issuance
- On February 12, 2025, Sera Prognostics completed a public follow-on offering, issuing 1,250,000 shares of Class A Common Stock and pre-funded warrants for up to an additional 11,250,000 shares. This offering generated approximately $50.0 million in gross proceeds before deductions and is expected to fund the company through 2028.
- The company issued 53,827 shares of Class A common stock to Blue Ox Healthcare Partners, LLC on September 10, 2024. These shares, valued at $7.55 per share, were issued to meet contractual obligations related to developing strategies for insurance coverage of the PreTRM test.
Capital Expenditures
- Sera Prognostics reported capital expenditures of approximately $0.1 million for the years ended December 31, 2024, and 2023.
- The company's capital expenditures were $0.8 million in 2022 and $1.3 million in 2021.
Peer Outperformance in Life Sciences Tools & Services
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care Distributors | 6 | 7.6% | 56.6% | 93.6% | CAH 498% · MCK 396% · COR 181% |
| Health Care Services | 20 | 33.8% | 28.8% | 6.1% | HIMS 189% · RDNT 125% · DGX 100% |
| Health Care Facilities | 25 | 13.9% | 27.4% | -1.4% | THC 280% · NHC 210% · EHC 186% |
| Managed Health Care | 8 | 47.9% | 1.6% | -2.2% | OSCR 95% · HQY 52% · ELV 10% |
| Health Care Equipment | 50 | 11.0% | 17.8% | -17.6% | UFPT 355% · GKOS 286% · PLSE 127% |
| Pharmaceuticals | 61 | -12.9% | 10.6% | -37.3% | LQDA 977% · XERS 571% · KNSA 500% |
| Health Care Supplies | 11 | 23.9% | 17.0% | -40.1% | LNTH 248% · HAE 66% · MMSI 29% |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services ← | 108 | -8.1% | -18.9% | -74.5% | AXGN 255% · NTRA 214% · MEDP 181% |
| Biotechnology | 364 | -25.8% | -36.1% | -82.0% | ELVN 1073% · TRVI 995% · DNTH 956% |
| Health Care Technology | 21 | -21.4% | -50.4% | -82.8% | VEEV -3% · DOCS -51% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Sera Prognostics Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Would You Still Hold Sera Prognostics Stock If It Fell 30%? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
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Peer Comparisons
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Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 18.58 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.6 |
| Rev LTM | 437 |
| Op Inc LTM | -90 |
| FCF LTM | -14 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -37 |
| CFO LTM | 8 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -24 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 37.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 8.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -0.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 9.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -11.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -22.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 1.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -5.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -1.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -12.2% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Developing and commercializing its medical diagnostic products and services | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Developing and commercializing its medical diagnostic products and services | -37 | -37 | -40 |
| Total | -37 | -37 | -40 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Developing and commercializing its medical diagnostic products and services | -32 | -33 | -36 |
| Total | -32 | -33 | -36 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $2.08 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/15/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -43.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $2.04 | $2.10 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | 1.8% | -0.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 34.8% | 69.7% |
| Downside Capture | -10.85 | 89.04 |
| Upside Capture | -28.04 | 27.76 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 2.5% | 13.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.20 | -0.03 | -0.51 | -0.06 | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| Up Beta | 4.55 | 2.64 | -0.41 | -0.11 | 1.12 | 0.55 |
| Down Beta | -0.10 | 0.77 | 0.23 | 0.67 | 1.30 | 1.45 |
| Up Capture | -70% | -75% | -62% | -19% | 4% | 23% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 20 | 30 | 61 | 113 | 339 |
| Down Capture | -30% | -48% | -89% | -60% | 83% | 82% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 21 | 30 | 58 | 126 | 387 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SERA | -31.2% | 69.7% | -0.25 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 29.2% | 16.9% | 1.33 | 18.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 9.5% | 13.6% | 0.41 | 11.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 3.6% | 28.7% | 0.11 | 9.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 37.7% | 21.2% | 1.40 | -3.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.0% | 14.2% | 0.55 | 7.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -20.8% | 43.3% | -0.42 | 16.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SERA | -27.5% | 125.7% | 0.18 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 8.6% | 15.4% | 0.36 | 8.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.3% | 17.3% | 0.48 | 10.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 19.1% | 0.74 | 2.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 19.6% | 0.29 | -3.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.2% | 18.9% | -0.05 | 8.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.9% | 51.5% | 0.29 | 9.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SERA | -15.8% | 123.7% | 0.17 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 12.2% | 16.8% | 0.60 | 7.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 18.0% | 0.70 | 10.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.0% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 2.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.6% | 18.1% | 0.33 | -2.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 8.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.3% | 66.2% | 1.01 | 9.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/4/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/12/2026 | -0.5% | -1.5% | 0.5% |
| 5/6/2026 | 6.1% | -12.2% | 26.5% |
| 3/18/2026 | -6.3% | 4.2% | 20.4% |
| 11/13/2025 | 0.3% | 6.1% | 20.7% |
| 8/6/2025 | -5.5% | -16.4% | 21.5% |
| 5/7/2025 | -11.7% | -6.2% | -35.4% |
| 3/19/2025 | -5.1% | -5.1% | -17.9% |
| 1/31/2025 | -18.5% | -29.8% | -35.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 5 | 8 |
| # Negative | 11 | 16 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 3.0% | 6.1% | 20.5% |
| Median Negative | -6.8% | -10.8% | -17.9% |
| Max Positive | 10.8% | 10.0% | 120.3% |
| Max Negative | -18.5% | -29.8% | -38.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/12/2026 | -0.5% | -1.5% | 0.5% |
| 5/6/2026 | 6.1% | -12.2% | 26.5% |
| 3/18/2026 | -6.3% | 4.2% | 20.4% |
| 11/13/2025 | 0.3% | 6.1% | 20.7% |
| 8/6/2025 | -5.5% | -16.4% | 21.5% |
| 5/7/2025 | -11.7% | -6.2% | -35.4% |
| 3/19/2025 | -5.1% | -5.1% | -17.9% |
| 1/31/2025 | -18.5% | -29.8% | -35.7% |
| 11/6/2024 | -12.7% | -20.3% | -15.9% |
| 8/7/2024 | 0.1% | -7.3% | -2.0% |
| 5/8/2024 | 5.3% | -9.4% | -11.9% |
| 3/20/2024 | 3.8% | 4.9% | 8.1% |
| 11/8/2023 | -7.6% | -14.7% | 120.3% |
| 8/9/2023 | 3.2% | -18.7% | -38.5% |
| 5/10/2023 | 0.6% | -2.6% | -11.8% |
| 3/22/2023 | -6.8% | -6.5% | -19.6% |
| 11/9/2022 | 10.8% | 10.0% | -6.9% |
| 8/10/2022 | 2.8% | -13.8% | -22.1% |
| 5/10/2022 | -7.1% | -24.5% | -32.4% |
| 11/9/2021 | -0.7% | -8.4% | -9.1% |
| 8/30/2021 | 1.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 5 | 8 |
| # Negative | 11 | 16 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 3.0% | 6.1% | 20.5% |
| Median Negative | -6.8% | -10.8% | -17.9% |
| Max Positive | 10.8% | 10.0% | 120.3% |
| Max Negative | -18.5% | -29.8% | -38.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/12/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/22/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/12/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/29/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/09/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/30/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 07/08/2021 | S-1/A |
Insider Activity
Updated 10/13/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inglis, Tiffany Eul Davis | Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 10132026 | 2.03 | 8,024 | 16,289 | 169,637 | Form |
| 2 | Anderson, Dyaarl Lee JR | Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9112026 | 2.00 | 1,800 | 3,600 | 152,396 | Form |
| 3 | Lindgardt, Zhenya | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 9112026 | 2.00 | 7,022 | 14,044 | 1,675,696 | Form |
| 4 | Inglis, Tiffany Eul Davis | Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 9112026 | 2.00 | 486 | 972 | 183,178 | Form |
| 5 | Jackson, Benjamin | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 9112026 | 2.00 | 2,190 | 4,380 | 319,132 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inglis, Tiffany Eul Davis | Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 10132026 | 2.03 | 8,024 | 16,289 | 169,637 | Form |
| 2 | Anderson, Dyaarl Lee JR | Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9112026 | 2.00 | 1,800 | 3,600 | 152,396 | Form |
| 3 | Lindgardt, Zhenya | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 9112026 | 2.00 | 7,022 | 14,044 | 1,675,696 | Form |
| 4 | Inglis, Tiffany Eul Davis | Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 9112026 | 2.00 | 486 | 972 | 183,178 | Form |
| 5 | Jackson, Benjamin | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 9112026 | 2.00 | 2,190 | 4,380 | 319,132 | Form |
| 6 | Lindgardt, Zhenya | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 9092026 | 2.00 | 20,139 | 40,278 | 1,689,740 | Form |
| 7 | Anderson, Dyaarl Lee JR | Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6152026 | 2.01 | 4,739 | 9,525 | 156,776 | Form |
| 8 | Lindgardt, Zhenya | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 6152026 | 2.01 | 6,990 | 14,050 | 1,738,668 | Form |
| 9 | Inglis, Tiffany Eul Davis | Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 6152026 | 2.01 | 362 | 728 | 185,071 | Form |
| 10 | Jackson, Benjamin | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 6152026 | 2.01 | 2,179 | 4,380 | 325,130 | Form |
| 11 | Aerts, Austin | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6152026 | 2.01 | 2,037 | 4,094 | 605,392 | Form |
| 12 | Lawrence, Sandra AJ | Direct | Sell | 6092026 | 2.15 | 1,560 | 3,354 | 35,417 | Form | |
| 13 | Lindgardt, Zhenya | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 2.04 | 2,973 | 6,065 | 1,506,161 | Form |
| 14 | Kearney, Paul | Chief Data Officer | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 2.04 | 1,396 | 2,848 | 334,480 | Form |
| 15 | Jackson, Benjamin | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 2.04 | 1,027 | 2,095 | 234,029 | Form |
| 16 | Harrison, Robert Gardner | Chief Information Officer | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 2.04 | 716 | 1,461 | 156,492 | Form |
| 17 | Boniface, John J | Chief Scientific Officer | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 2.04 | 1,517 | 3,095 | 297,518 | Form |
| 18 | Aerts, Austin | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 2.04 | 1,019 | 2,079 | 539,482 | Form |
| 19 | Lindgardt, Zhenya | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 1.90 | 22,639 | 43,014 | 1,408,445 | Form |
| 20 | Aerts, Austin | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 1.90 | 6,069 | 11,531 | 504,395 | Form |
| 21 | Kearney, Paul | Chief Data Officer | Direct | Sell | 3102026 | 1.96 | 2,026 | 3,971 | 324,100 | Form |
| 22 | Jackson, Benjamin | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 3102026 | 1.96 | 3,119 | 6,113 | 226,864 | Form |
| 23 | Harrison, Robert Gardner | Chief Information Officer | Direct | Sell | 3102026 | 1.96 | 3,360 | 6,586 | 151,759 | Form |
| 24 | Boniface, John J | Chief Scientific Officer | Direct | Sell | 3102026 | 1.96 | 3,038 | 5,954 | 288,824 | Form |
| 25 | Aerts, Austin | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3102026 | 1.96 | 674 | 1,321 | 532,218 | Form |
| 26 | Lawrence, Sandra AJ | Direct | Sell | 3062026 | 1.95 | 1,560 | 3,042 | 35,164 | Form | |
| 27 | Harrison, Robert Gardner | Chief Information Officer | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 2.34 | 2,000 | 4,680 | 189,044 | Form |
| 28 | Harrison, Robert Gardner | Chief Information Officer | Direct | Sell | 1272026 | 2.97 | 2,000 | 5,940 | 245,880 | Form |
| 29 | Harrison, Robert Gardner | Chief Information Officer | Direct | Sell | 12302025 | 3.00 | 2,000 | 6,000 | 254,364 | Form |
| 30 | Lindgardt, Zhenya | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 12112025 | 3.31 | 4,155 | 13,753 | 2,528,595 | Form |
| 31 | Kearney, Paul | Chief Data Officer | Direct | Sell | 12112025 | 3.31 | 1,213 | 4,015 | 554,038 | Form |
| 32 | Jackson, Benjamin | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 12112025 | 3.31 | 892 | 2,953 | 393,446 | Form |
| 33 | Harrison, Robert Gardner | Chief Information Officer | Direct | Sell | 12112025 | 3.31 | 616 | 2,039 | 287,268 | Form |
| 34 | Boniface, John J | Chief Scientific Officer | Direct | Sell | 12112025 | 3.31 | 1,332 | 4,409 | 497,814 | Form |
| 35 | Aerts, Austin | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12112025 | 3.31 | 873 | 2,890 | 901,028 | Form |
| 36 | Lindgardt, Zhenya | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 12102025 | 3.04 | 28,215 | 85,774 | 2,334,966 | Form |
| 37 | Aerts, Austin | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12102025 | 3.04 | 5,232 | 15,905 | 830,184 | Form |
| 38 | Lawrence, Sandra AJ | Direct | Sell | 12082025 | 3.05 | 1,560 | 4,758 | 59,759 | Form | |
| 39 | Mirza, Mansoor Raza | Direct | Sell | 12052025 | 3.05 | 292 | 891 | 176,107 | Form | |
| 40 | Harrison, Robert Gardner | Chief Information Officer | Direct | Sell | 12032025 | 2.93 | 2,000 | 5,860 | 256,094 | Form |
| 41 | Kearney, Paul | Chief Data Officer | Direct | Sell | 12032025 | 2.94 | 32,203 | 94,677 | 495,672 | Form |
| 42 | Kearney, Paul | Chief Data Officer | Direct | Sell | 11262025 | 3.51 | 1,986 | 6,971 | 591,772 | Form |
| 43 | Lindgardt, Zhenya | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 2.62 | 11,594 | 30,376 | 2,086,296 | Form |
| 44 | Kearney, Paul | Chief Data Officer | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 2.62 | 7,073 | 18,531 | 441,722 | Form |
| 45 | Jackson, Benjamin | General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 2.62 | 7,059 | 18,495 | 313,766 | Form |
| 46 | Harrison, Robert Gardner | Chief Information Officer | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 2.62 | 6,528 | 17,103 | 234,238 | Form |
| 47 | Boniface, John J | Chief Scientific Officer | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 2.62 | 7,767 | 20,350 | 397,522 | Form |
| 48 | Aerts, Austin | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 2.62 | 6,351 | 16,640 | 729,196 | Form |
| 49 | Mirza, Mansoor Raza | Direct | Sell | 11062025 | 3.04 | 221 | 672 | 176,417 | Form | |
| 50 | Harrison, Robert Gardner | Chief Information Officer | Direct | Sell | 11042025 | 3.07 | 2,000 | 6,140 | 294,511 | Form |
| 51 | Harrison, Robert Gardner | Chief Information Officer | Direct | Sell | 10082025 | 3.18 | 2,000 | 6,360 | 311,424 | Form |
| 52 | Mirza, Mansoor Raza | Direct | Sell | 10062025 | 3.16 | 227 | 717 | 184,079 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Health Care Resources |
| U.S. National Library of Medicine |
| ClinicalTrials.gov |
| Modern Healthcare |
| Healthcare Dive |
| Fierce Healthcare |
| Health Affairs |
| Health Data Management |
| FDA Tracker |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services Resources |
| GenomeWeb |
| BioSpace |
| The Scientist |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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