Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -65%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -102 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -14071%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -32%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 643x
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Targeted Therapies.
Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 162%
3  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -68%
4  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11212%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11437%
5  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -23%
6  High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 108%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -65%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -32%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Targeted Therapies.
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -102 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -14071%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 643x
5 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 162%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -68%
7 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11212%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11437%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -23%
9 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 108%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SEPN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Between approximately August 31, 2025, and December 8, 2025, Septerna (SEPN) stock experienced significant upward movement. Several key developments contributed to this period of growth:

1. Initiation of Phase 1 Clinical Trial for SEP-631. Septerna announced the dosing of the first participants in its Phase 1 clinical trial for SEP-631, an oral small molecule for mast cell-driven diseases, on August 21, 2025, marking a significant milestone in its drug development program. This trial aims to evaluate the drug's safety, tolerability, and pharmacological properties.

2. Novo Nordisk Collaboration Payment and Extended Cash Runway. The company reported a significant cash position of $379.2 million, with its financial runway extended into 2029, largely due to a $195 million upfront payment from a collaboration with Novo Nordisk. This collaboration and robust financial standing bolster investor confidence in Septerna's long-term prospects.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SEPN Return-----14%14%
Peers Return2%-1%6%8%-0%3%18%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SEPN Win Rate----50%60% 
Peers Win Rate13%8%13%12%10%90% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SEPN Max Drawdown------78% 
Peers Max Drawdown-2%-5%0%-0%-1%-2% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/5/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

SEPN has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLVS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-16.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven19.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven599 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-28.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven116 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-15.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven18.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven326 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-40.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven68.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1100 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -16.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -16.1% loss requires a 19.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Septerna (SEPN)

Better Bets than Septerna (SEPN)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SEPN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.8%9.8%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-8.8%-8.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.5%2.5%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
12.5%12.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.1%10.1%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.8%9.8%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-8.8%-8.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.5%2.5%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
12.5%12.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.1%10.1%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Septerna

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SEPNVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameSepterna Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Mkt Price26.76455.482.501.2113.6921.9017.79
Mkt Cap1.2116.4--0.6-1.2
Rev LTM111,7230-0101
Op Inc LTM-102-92-7--124-70-92
FCF LTM-833,337-7--87-64-64
FCF 3Y Avg-2,064-8---1,028
CFO LTM-813,718-7--87-64-64
CFO 3Y Avg-2,419-8---1,205

Growth & Margins

SEPNVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameSepterna Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Rev Chg LTM-13.4%10.3%-----1.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-10.5%----10.5%
Rev Chg Q-67.8%11.0%-----28.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-25.7%2.7%-----11.5%
Op Mgn LTM-14,071.1%-0.8%----700.7%-700.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-26.2%----26.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-4,732.0%1.0%-----2,365.5%
CFO/Rev LTM-11,212.4%31.7%----635.6%-635.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-23.1%----23.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-11,436.9%28.5%----636.5%-636.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-19.8%----19.8%

Valuation

SEPNVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameSepterna Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Mkt Cap1.2116.4--0.6-1.2
P/S643.08.5----325.8
P/EBIT-4.622.4---4.8--4.6
P/E-5.327.2---5.2--5.2
P/CFO-5.726.9---6.9--5.7
Total Yield-18.7%3.7%---19.3%--18.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%--0.0%-0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-2.3%----2.3%
D/E0.10.0--0.0-0.0
Net D/E-0.6-0.0---0.8--0.6

Returns

SEPNVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameSepterna Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
1M Rtn44.6%11.2%-65.7%12.7%19.0%19.0%
3M Rtn85.4%15.0%--38.3%-38.3%
6M Rtn162.1%1.1%----81.6%
12M Rtn3.9%-1.4%----1.2%
3Y Rtn-41.8%----41.8%
1M Excs Rtn38.8%8.1%-36.8%9.3%-23.0%
3M Excs Rtn76.6%9.5%--18.6%-18.6%
6M Excs Rtn147.6%-13.4%----67.1%
12M Excs Rtn-9.4%-13.9%-----11.6%
3Y Excs Rtn--24.4%-----24.4%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,921,591
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-5.1%
Average Daily Volume352,486
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.45
Basic Shares Quantity44,165,168
Short % of Basic Shares4.4%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/10/2025-2.2%25.7% 
8/11/2025-2.5%0.9%28.1%
3/27/20252.4%-10.5%5.2%
11/20/2024-3.2%10.1%7.9%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive133
# Negative311
Median Positive2.4%10.1%7.9%
Median Negative-2.5%-10.5% 
Max Positive2.4%25.7%28.1%
Max Negative-3.2%-10.5% 

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025811202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025515202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024327202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241120202410-Q 9/30/2024
1231202310252024424B4 12/31/2023

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Long Daniel D.SVP, Drug Discovery11132025Sell18.063,50163,2231,677,843Form