Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 2147%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -89 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -406%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 473%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 468%
Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 153%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -85%
High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 107%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Targeted Therapies.
Key risks
SEPN key risks include [1] the recent clinical trial failure and discontinuation of its lead asset, Show more.
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 2147%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 473%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 468%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -85%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Targeted Therapies.
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -89 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -406%
5 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 153%
6 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 107%
7 Key risks
SEPN key risks include [1] the recent clinical trial failure and discontinuation of its lead asset, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SEPN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for Septerna's stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, during which the stock saw a significant increase, including a 112.9% rise over a 90-day period ending mid-November 2025: 1. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Upgrades

Septerna benefited from a wave of positive analyst sentiment during this period. Truist Securities initiated coverage with a "Buy" rating and a $34.00 price target on December 15, 2025. Additionally, Wells Fargo upgraded Septerna from "Equal Weight" to "Overweight" on November 14, 2025, increasing its price target from $18.00 to $28.00. Other firms also maintained "Buy" ratings and raised price targets, reflecting renewed confidence in the company's trajectory. 2. Strong Earnings Turnaround and Financial Updates

The company reported a strong earnings turnaround, which was a significant factor in the positive analyst sentiment around November 17, 2025. Septerna also announced its third-quarter 2025 financial results and program milestones on November 10, 2025, highlighting business progress. Earlier in the year, Q2 2025 financial results showed significant progress across its GPCR drug discovery portfolio and a robust cash position extending its runway into 2029.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SEPN Return15%
Peers Return-3%36%28%58%34%11%294%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SEPN Win Rate50%58% 
Peers Win Rate48%55%55%58%55%45% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SEPN Max Drawdown-78% 
Peers Max Drawdown-31%-9%-26%-14%-7%-30% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CRNX, LLY, VKTX, REGN, AMGN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

SEPN has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLVS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-16.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven19.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven599 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-28.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven116 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-15.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven18.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven326 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-40.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven68.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,100 days1,480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -16.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -16.1% loss requires a 19.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Septerna (SEPN)

Better Bets than Septerna (SEPN)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SEPN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.8%16.8%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-6.4%-6.4%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.2%5.2%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%3.4%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.4%14.4%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.8%16.8%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-6.4%-6.4%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.2%5.2%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%3.4%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.4%14.4%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Septerna

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SEPNCRNXLLYVKTXREGNAMGNMedian
NameSepterna Crinetic.Eli LillyViking T.Regenero.Amgen  
Mkt Price26.5547.691,041.7934.30749.79326.01186.85
Mkt Cap0.84.5935.43.977.7175.441.1
Rev LTM22253,258014,24835,9717,135
Op Inc LTM-89-47822,882-2753,8078,6711,859
FCF LTM103-354-50-2253,88111,53926
FCF 3Y Avg--242-156-1223,8539,067-122
CFO LTM104-34810,938-2255,07113,1262,588
CFO 3Y Avg--2387,230-1224,84810,3224,848

Growth & Margins

SEPNCRNXLLYVKTXREGNAMGNMedian
NameSepterna Crinetic.Eli LillyViking T.Regenero.Amgen  
Rev Chg LTM2,147.2%47.7%36.8%-2.9%10.6%36.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--12.6%23.4%-1.4%11.2%6.3%
Rev Chg Q12,113.1%-37.6%-0.9%12.4%25.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2,936.5%10.3%8.7%-0.2%3.0%8.7%
Op Mgn LTM-406.0%-31,130.2%43.0%-26.7%24.1%24.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg--21,683.3%35.6%-30.0%25.4%27.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM13,665.1%-738.0%1.8%--0.9%0.6%0.6%
CFO/Rev LTM472.8%-22,649.4%20.5%-35.6%36.5%35.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg--15,175.8%17.8%-35.4%32.7%25.3%
FCF/Rev LTM467.9%-23,062.0%-0.1%-27.2%32.1%27.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg--15,462.1%0.5%-28.2%28.8%14.3%

Valuation

SEPNCRNXLLYVKTXREGNAMGNMedian
NameSepterna Crinetic.Eli LillyViking T.Regenero.Amgen  
Mkt Cap0.84.5935.43.977.7175.441.1
P/S37.82,556.412.9-4.14.212.9
P/EBIT--8.238.6-10.711.213.711.2
P/E-14.2-9.349.6-12.412.721.71.7
P/CFO8.0-11.362.6-13.111.511.69.7
Total Yield-7.1%-10.8%2.7%-8.0%8.3%7.9%-2.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.7%0.0%0.5%3.3%0.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--8.0%0.1%-4.9%4.9%5.9%0.1%
D/E-0.00.10.00.00.40.0
Net D/E--0.30.1-0.2-0.10.3-0.1

Returns

SEPNCRNXLLYVKTXREGNAMGNMedian
NameSepterna Crinetic.Eli LillyViking T.Regenero.Amgen  
1M Rtn22.7%9.6%2.0%-10.3%6.5%-4.6%4.2%
3M Rtn84.5%39.4%37.3%48.5%28.2%19.5%38.3%
6M Rtn153.1%56.4%33.2%30.5%46.4%14.3%39.8%
12M Rtn18.5%-13.9%34.8%-26.6%1.9%26.6%10.2%
3Y Rtn-183.0%196.4%753.2%4.3%34.2%183.0%
1M Excs Rtn22.0%8.8%1.2%-11.0%5.7%-5.3%3.5%
3M Excs Rtn65.2%33.1%35.4%30.4%24.0%17.7%31.7%
6M Excs Rtn140.7%44.0%20.8%18.1%34.0%1.9%27.4%
12M Excs Rtn7.5%-22.2%21.9%-38.1%-8.0%13.3%-0.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-126.7%122.1%797.8%-66.9%-38.8%122.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023
Single Segment00
Total00


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023
Single Segment0 
Total0 


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023
Single Segment0 
Total0 


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023
Single Segment 36
Total 36


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,477,425
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-23.1%
Average Daily Volume404,592
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.65
Basic Shares Quantity44,343,085
Short % of Basic Shares3.3%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/10/2025-2.2%25.7%38.5%
8/11/2025-2.5%0.9%28.1%
3/27/20252.4%-10.5%5.2%
11/20/2024-3.2%10.1%7.9%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive134
# Negative310
Median Positive2.4%10.1%18.0%
Median Negative-2.5%-10.5% 
Max Positive2.4%25.7%38.5%
Max Negative-3.2%-10.5% 

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251110202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025811202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025515202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024327202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241120202410-Q 9/30/2024
1231202310252024424B4 12/31/2023

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Long Daniel D.SVP, Drug Discovery11132025Sell18.063,50163,2231,677,843Form