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Smith Douglas Homes (SDHC)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $20.82 | Market Cap: $187.7 Mil
Sector: Real Estate | Industry: Real Estate Development

Smith Douglas Homes (SDHC)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $20.82
Market Cap: $187.7 Mil
Sector: Real Estate
Industry: Real Estate Development

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 25%, Dividend Yield is 18%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 21%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.7%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Demographic Shifts & Housing. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, Show more.
Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.6%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.1%
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 25%, Dividend Yield is 18%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 21%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Demographic Shifts & Housing. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, Show more.
2 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.7%
3 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.6%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.1%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SDHC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Smith Douglas Homes (SDHC) experienced significant events between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, that likely contributed to its stock movement. These factors include the company's third-quarter earnings report, analyst revisions, and key operational metrics.

1. Mixed Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Report: Smith Douglas Homes reported its Q3 2025 results on November 5, 2025, which presented a mixed financial picture. The company missed analyst expectations on earnings per diluted share, reporting $0.24 against estimates of $0.58 or $0.67. However, it narrowly surpassed revenue estimates, with actual revenue of $262.0 million compared to projections around $251.41 million to $256.4 million. This divergence could have led to immediate volatility in the stock price.

2. Decline in Profitability and Gross Margins: A significant factor impacting the stock was the notable contraction in home closing gross margin, which fell to 21.0% in Q3 2025 from 26.5% in the same period of 2024. Pretax income also decreased substantially to $17.2 million from $39.6 million year-over-year. This reduction in profitability was primarily driven by higher lot costs and increased incentives offered to homebuyers.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SDHC Return------20%-20%
Peers Return27%26%-29%59%3%17%116%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SDHC Win Rate----55%20% 
Peers Win Rate47%50%30%53%38%46% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SDHC Max Drawdown------40% 
Peers Max Drawdown-30%-5%-39%-4%-23%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JOE, FOR, AXR, HHH, FPH.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

SDHC has limited trading history. Below is the Real Estate sector ETF (XLRE) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLRES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-37.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven61.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-39.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven64.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven393 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-13.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven15.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven43 days120 days

Compare to


In The Past

Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (The)'s stock fell -37.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -37.9% loss requires a 61.0% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About Smith Douglas Homes (SDHC)

Better Bets than Smith Douglas Homes (SDHC)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SDHC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
8.5%8.5%-5.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
8.5%8.5%-5.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Smith Douglas Homes

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SDHCJOEFORAXRHHHFPHMedian
NameSmith Do.St. Joe Forestar Amrep Howard H.Five Poi. 
Mkt Price21.4961.8027.0822.0387.676.0724.55
Mkt Cap0.23.61.40.14.90.91.1
Rev LTM9984891,543481,771194743
Op Inc LTM871322021354124110
FCF LTM-41148-336953620978
FCF 3Y Avg3922-45121679431
CFO LTM-36176-335953820993
CFO 3Y Avg43125-43121709468

Growth & Margins

SDHCJOEFORAXRHHHFPHMedian
NameSmith Do.St. Joe Forestar Amrep Howard H.Five Poi. 
Rev Chg LTM10.3%26.9%2.3%-19.5%80.5%-1.5%6.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-19.4%0.9%-4.7%14.5%10.1%10.1%
Rev Chg Q-5.7%62.7%22.6%-6.5%-8.0%-20.7%-6.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.6%14.5%4.9%-2.5%-1.3%-1.8%-1.4%
Op Mgn LTM8.7%27.1%13.1%27.4%30.6%12.3%20.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg13.1%24.2%14.3%18.6%26.2%9.4%16.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.9%3.5%-0.6%3.0%-0.9%-3.6%-0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM-3.6%36.0%-21.7%18.7%30.4%107.8%24.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg5.7%29.9%-1.6%22.6%7.4%55.3%15.0%
FCF/Rev LTM-4.1%30.3%-21.8%17.6%30.3%107.8%23.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.3%2.6%-1.7%21.9%7.1%55.3%6.2%

Valuation

SDHCJOEFORAXRHHHFPHMedian
NameSmith Do.St. Joe Forestar Amrep Howard H.Five Poi. 
Mkt Cap0.23.61.40.14.90.91.1
P/S0.25.90.72.32.14.72.2
P/EBIT1.816.65.08.47.538.47.9
P/E14.127.46.38.416.49.711.9
P/CFO-4.516.2-3.012.36.94.45.7
Total Yield25.1%4.8%16.0%12.0%6.1%10.3%11.1%
Dividend Yield18.0%1.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-0.9%-4.6%11.7%-12.7%6.3%
D/E0.50.20.90.01.40.50.5
Net D/E0.40.20.7-0.41.00.10.3

Returns

SDHCJOEFORAXRHHHFPHMedian
NameSmith Do.St. Joe Forestar Amrep Howard H.Five Poi. 
1M Rtn20.5%5.5%5.7%1.9%11.8%3.2%5.6%
3M Rtn13.7%26.3%-1.3%7.5%14.6%8.6%11.1%
6M Rtn13.2%38.4%38.3%9.8%29.8%6.9%21.5%
12M Rtn-36.7%24.0%-8.9%-40.5%1.7%50.6%-3.6%
3Y Rtn-71.0%80.3%98.3%-149.8%89.3%
1M Excs Rtn20.5%5.5%5.7%2.0%11.9%3.3%5.6%
3M Excs Rtn7.2%18.1%-9.2%0.6%7.5%2.5%4.8%
6M Excs Rtn-1.6%23.6%23.6%-4.9%15.1%-7.9%6.8%
12M Excs Rtn-49.8%8.8%-22.8%-52.4%-12.5%36.0%-17.7%
3Y Excs Rtn--0.1%14.3%21.6%-92.3%18.0%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity532,094
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120253.8%
Average Daily Volume78,684
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.76
Basic Shares Quantity9,017,398
Short % of Basic Shares5.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025514202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024321202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024814202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024515202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023401202410-K 12/31/2023
63020239062023S-1 6/30/2023
123120221122024424B4 12/31/2022