Smith Douglas Homes (SDHC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $20.82 | Market Cap: $187.7 MilSector: Real Estate | Industry: Real Estate Development
Smith Douglas Homes (SDHC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $20.82Market Cap: $187.7 MilSector: Real EstateIndustry: Real Estate Development
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 25%, Dividend Yield is 18%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 21% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.7% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Demographic Shifts & Housing. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, Show more. | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.6%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.1% |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 25%, Dividend Yield is 18%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 21% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Demographic Shifts & Housing. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, Show more. |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.7% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.6%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.1% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SDHC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Smith Douglas Homes (SDHC) experienced significant events between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, that likely contributed to its stock movement. These factors include the company's third-quarter earnings report, analyst revisions, and key operational metrics.
1. Mixed Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Report: Smith Douglas Homes reported its Q3 2025 results on November 5, 2025, which presented a mixed financial picture. The company missed analyst expectations on earnings per diluted share, reporting $0.24 against estimates of $0.58 or $0.67. However, it narrowly surpassed revenue estimates, with actual revenue of $262.0 million compared to projections around $251.41 million to $256.4 million. This divergence could have led to immediate volatility in the stock price.
2. Decline in Profitability and Gross Margins: A significant factor impacting the stock was the notable contraction in home closing gross margin, which fell to 21.0% in Q3 2025 from 26.5% in the same period of 2024. Pretax income also decreased substantially to $17.2 million from $39.6 million year-over-year. This reduction in profitability was primarily driven by higher lot costs and increased incentives offered to homebuyers.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SDHC Return | - | - | - | - | - | -20% | -20% |
| Peers Return | 27% | 26% | -29% | 59% | 3% | 17% | 116% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SDHC Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 55% | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 50% | 30% | 53% | 38% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SDHC Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -40% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -30% | -5% | -39% | -4% | -23% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JOE, FOR, AXR, HHH, FPH.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
SDHC has limited trading history. Below is the Real Estate sector ETF (XLRE) in its place.
| Event | XLRE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 393 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -13.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 120 days |
Compare to
In The Past
Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (The)'s stock fell -37.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -37.9% loss requires a 61.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SDHC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 8.5% | 8.5% | -5.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 8.5% | 8.5% | -5.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Smith Douglas Homes
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 24.55 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.1 |
| Rev LTM | 743 |
| Op Inc LTM | 110 |
| FCF LTM | 78 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 31 |
| CFO LTM | 93 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 68 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | -6.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 24.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 23.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.1 |
| P/S | 2.2 |
| P/EBIT | 7.9 |
| P/E | 11.9 |
| P/CFO | 5.7 |
| Total Yield | 11.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.3% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 11.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 21.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -3.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 89.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 6.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -17.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 18.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5142025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5152024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4012024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 6302023 | 9062023 | S-1 6/30/2023 |
| 12312022 | 1122024 | 424B4 12/31/2022 |
External Quote Links
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