Scilex (SCLX)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $15.44 | Market Cap: $179.2 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Pharmaceuticals
Scilex (SCLX)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $15.44Market Cap: $179.2 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Pharmaceuticals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 59%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -105%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -157% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -263 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -652% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Non-opioid Pain Management, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 221% | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -27%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -27% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 9894% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 3575% | ||
| Key risksSCLX key risks include [1] severe financial distress, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 59%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Non-opioid Pain Management, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -105%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -157% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -263 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -652% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 221% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -27%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -27% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 9894% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 3575% |
| Key risksSCLX key risks include [1] severe financial distress, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SCLX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Significant Q3 2025 Earnings Miss.
On November 14, 2025, Scilex reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of -$22.17, which substantially missed the consensus analyst estimate of -$0.41 by $21.76. The company's quarterly revenue of $10.56 million also fell below the consensus estimate of $26.25 million, indicating underperformance that could trigger a negative market reaction.
2. Dilution from Warrant Exercises.
Scilex announced the closing of exercises of warrants for $20.3 million in gross proceeds on November 24 and 25, 2025. While these exercises brought capital to the company, the issuance of new shares upon warrant exercise typically leads to stock dilution, which can put downward pressure on the existing share price.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SCLX Return | � | � | -60% | -49% | -79% | 6% | � |
| Peers Return | 0% | -14% | -30% | 38% | -10% | 21% | -9% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SCLX Win Rate | � | 78% | 67% | 33% | 33% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 47% | 38% | 53% | 43% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SCLX Max Drawdown | � | � | -71% | -76% | -81% | -99% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -25% | -42% | -35% | -29% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PRGO, AMRX, PCRX, COLL, HRTX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SCLX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -93.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1461.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 615 days | 464 days |
Compare to LLY, JNJ, MRK, PFE, BMY
In The Past
Scilex's stock fell -93.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/12/2023. A -93.6% loss requires a 1461.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Scilex Earnings Notes | ||
| Would You Still Hold Scilex Stock If It Fell Another 30%? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SCLX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.8% | 16.8% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.4% | -6.4% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.2% | 5.2% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.4% | 14.4% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.8% | 16.8% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.4% | -6.4% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.2% | 5.2% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.4% | 14.4% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Scilex
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 14.38 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.4 |
| Rev LTM | 737 |
| Op Inc LTM | 106 |
| FCF LTM | 180 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 175 |
| CFO LTM | 216 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 208 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.4 |
| P/S | 1.4 |
| P/EBIT | 11.6 |
| P/E | 9.1 |
| P/CFO | 8.1 |
| Total Yield | -0.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 12.5% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 32.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | -41.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -2.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 20.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -0.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -113.5% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/8/2024 | -2.5% | -3.7% | 27.5% |
| 7/1/2024 | -2.6% | -2.6% | -19.7% |
| 4/16/2024 | 0.9% | -15.8% | -29.5% |
| 1/2/2024 | 0.0% | 4.9% | -19.6% |
| 10/2/2023 | -5.0% | 12.1% | 32.1% |
| 7/5/2023 | -0.2% | -0.7% | 5.4% |
| 4/3/2023 | -0.6% | 72.6% | -40.6% |
| 1/3/2023 | 33.2% | 47.1% | 75.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| # Negative | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Median Positive | 0.9% | 29.6% | 29.8% |
| Median Negative | -2.5% | -3.2% | -24.6% |
| Max Positive | 33.2% | 72.6% | 75.4% |
| Max Negative | -5.0% | -15.8% | -40.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11142025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8132025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5142025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3312025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 1172025 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8132024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5132024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3122024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8112023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5122023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3072023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 5132022 | S-4 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |