Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $49.0 | Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Pharmaceuticals
Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $49.0Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Pharmaceuticals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.3%, FCF Yield is 26% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.2%, Dist 3Y High is -0.2% | Key risksCOLL key risks include [1] patent infringement litigation threatening its core products Xtampza ER and Belbuca, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 20% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.4, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Chronic Pain Management, and Abuse-Deterrent Formulations. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.3%, FCF Yield is 26% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 20% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Chronic Pain Management, and Abuse-Deterrent Formulations. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.2%, Dist 3Y High is -0.2% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.4, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19% |
| Key risksCOLL key risks include [1] patent infringement litigation threatening its core products Xtampza ER and Belbuca, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
COLL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) experienced an approximate 26% stock price increase in the recent past, particularly in the month leading up to mid-December 2025. This significant movement can be attributed to several key factors.
**1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Performance.** Collegium Pharmaceutical reported robust third-quarter 2025 financial results, surpassing analyst expectations for both revenue and earnings per share. The company posted record quarterly net revenue of $209.4 million, a 31% increase year-over-year, significantly exceeding the consensus estimate of approximately $193 million. Non-GAAP adjusted earnings per share reached $2.25, outperforming the analyst estimate of $2.08 per share.
**2. Raised Full-Year 2025 Financial Guidance.** Following the strong Q3 results, Collegium Pharmaceutical raised its full-year 2025 financial guidance. The net revenue guidance was increased to a range of $775 million to $785 million, up from the prior guidance of $745 million to $760 million, with the new midpoint exceeding analyst sales estimates. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was also raised to a range of $460 million to $470 million.
**3. Growth in Key Product Portfolios.** The record financial performance was driven by strong demand and growth across Collegium's core business units. The company's ADHD business, primarily led by Jornay PM, saw a 20% increase in prescriptions, contributing $41.8 million in revenue. The pain management franchise also demonstrated continued resilience and growth, with overall revenues increasing by 11% year-over-year.
**4. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Increases.** Following the strong earnings report and upward guidance revision, several research analysts reaffirmed "Buy" or "Strong Buy" ratings for COLL stock and increased their price targets. For example, Barclays initiated coverage with an "Overweight" rating and a $58.00 price target in December 2025, while Truist Financial and HC Wainwright & Co. also raised their price objectives in November 2025. The average analyst rating for Collegium Pharmaceutical stock is "Strong Buy."
**5. Robust Cash Position.** Collegium ended the third quarter of 2025 with a strong cash position, reporting $285.9 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, and generated $78.4 million in cash from operations during the quarter. This solid financial standing provides flexibility and supports future growth initiatives.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| COLL Return | -3% | -7% | 24% | 33% | -7% | 70% | 137% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| COLL Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 58% | 42% | 42% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| COLL Max Drawdown | -33% | -13% | -24% | -9% | -7% | -14% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LHI, LLY, JNJ, MRK, PFE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | COLL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -45.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 240 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -45.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 328 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -65.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 187.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,290 days | 120 days |
Compare to LHI, LLY, JNJ, MRK, PFE
In The Past
Collegium Pharmaceutical's stock fell -45.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/24/2021. A -45.5% loss requires a 83.5% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to COLL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Collegium Pharmaceutical
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 99.18 |
| Mkt Cap | 247.5 |
| Rev LTM | 62,786 |
| Op Inc LTM | 22,391 |
| FCF LTM | 10,376 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 8,927 |
| CFO LTM | 13,077 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 12,127 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 26.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 26.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 247.5 |
| P/S | 3.3 |
| P/EBIT | 12.2 |
| P/E | 17.8 |
| P/CFO | 12.3 |
| Total Yield | 8.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 23.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 33.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 34.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 31.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 21.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 20.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 21.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -38.9% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | 13.4% | 32.1% | 33.6% |
| 8/7/2025 | 10.7% | 27.3% | 28.8% |
| 5/8/2025 | 5.9% | 7.6% | 11.6% |
| 2/27/2025 | 2.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% |
| 11/7/2024 | -7.3% | -12.8% | -11.8% |
| 7/29/2024 | -3.3% | 0.8% | 4.1% |
| 5/9/2024 | -16.8% | -11.1% | -12.0% |
| 2/22/2024 | 10.8% | 11.9% | 21.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 16 | 12 |
| # Negative | 9 | 8 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 5.9% | 6.1% | 15.2% |
| Median Negative | -7.3% | -11.9% | -7.8% |
| Max Positive | 13.4% | 32.1% | 33.6% |
| Max Negative | -17.3% | -26.7% | -24.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
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