Dutch Bros (BROS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $61.44 | Market Cap: $7.8 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Dutch Bros (BROS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $61.44Market Cap: $7.8 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -0.4% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.3x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 48x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 107x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Consumer Convenience & Service Innovation. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Drive-Thru Excellence. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Consumer Convenience & Service Innovation. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Drive-Thru Excellence. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -0.4% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.3x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 48x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 107x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
BROS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Dutch Bros (BROS) stock moved by -14.8% from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
**1. Significant Insider Selling.**
Large insider transactions occurred in late November 2025, with Chairman Travis Boersma selling approximately 1.68 million shares, valued at around $93.1 million. Additionally, Dm Individual Aggregator, LLC, a major shareholder, sold 648,089 shares for approximately $35.9 million on November 25, 2025. Total insider sales over the 90 days leading up to early December amounted to roughly 3.47 million shares, totaling about $189.8 million.
**2. Q3 2025 Margin Pressures.**
Despite reporting better-than-expected third-quarter 2025 earnings for both revenue and adjusted EPS on November 5, 2025, the company experienced a decline in its company-operated shop contribution margin, which decreased from 29.5% in Q3 2024 to 27.8% in Q3 2025. This was primarily attributed to increased costs in beverage, food, and packaging. Furthermore, gross profit for the quarter declined by 8.5% year-over-year despite a 25% revenue surge, indicating underlying cost pressures.
**3. High Valuation and Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio.**
Dutch Bros continued to trade at a high valuation during this period, with a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 117.80 and a forward P/E ratio of 103.33 as of early December 2025. Such a high valuation often implies significant future growth expectations, making the stock susceptible to downward movements if any concerns about growth or profitability emerge, or if market sentiment shifts.
**4. Analyst Price Target Adjustments.**
While many analysts maintained "Buy" or "Strong Buy" ratings, some adjusted their price targets downwards within the specified timeframe. For instance, Stifel Nicolaus reduced its price target from $82.00 to $75.00 on October 31, 2025, and Wells Fargo & Company cut its target from $80.00 to $70.00 on October 16, 2025. Piper Sandler also issued a lower price target of $63.00 on November 6, 2025. These revisions, despite often still suggesting upside, could contribute to a more cautious investor outlook and exert downward pressure on the stock.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BROS Return | - | - | -45% | 12% | 65% | 13% | 16% |
| Peers Return | 18% | 25% | 3% | -2% | 8% | -7% | 51% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BROS Win Rate | - | 33% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 20% | 23% | 20% | 15% | 18% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BROS Max Drawdown | - | - | -51% | -19% | -19% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -2% | -12% | -9% | -10% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GST, BH, RICK, BRCB, CADV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BROS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -70.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 234.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 505 days | 464 days |
Compare to GST, BH, RICK, BRCB, CADV
In The Past
Dutch Bros's stock fell -70.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/1/2021. A -70.1% loss requires a 234.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to BROS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Dutch Bros
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 43.20 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| Rev LTM | 387 |
| Op Inc LTM | 47 |
| FCF LTM | 65 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 28 |
| CFO LTM | 107 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 80 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | 47.6 |
| P/E | 107.1 |
| P/CFO | 6.5 |
| Total Yield | 0.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -14.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -15.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 12.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 65.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -19.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -30.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 0.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -0.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2132025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5122022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |