Dutch Bros (BROS)
Market Price (4/12/2026): $55.91 | Market Cap: $7.1 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Dutch Bros (BROS)
Market Price (4/12/2026): $55.91Market Cap: $7.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Consumer Convenience & Service Innovation. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Drive-Thru Excellence. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.3x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 43x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 89x Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.9% Key risksBROS key risks include [1] operational strain and market saturation from its aggressive national expansion and [2] heightened sales volatility due to a product mix heavily dependent on discretionary 'treat' beverages. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Consumer Convenience & Service Innovation. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Drive-Thru Excellence. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.3x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 43x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 89x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.9% |
| Key risksBROS key risks include [1] operational strain and market saturation from its aggressive national expansion and [2] heightened sales volatility due to a product mix heavily dependent on discretionary 'treat' beverages. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Macroeconomic Headwinds and Cautious Consumer Spending
Despite strong operational performance, Dutch Bros' stock has been negatively impacted by broader macroeconomic concerns, persistent inflation, and more cautious consumer spending patterns during the initial quarter of 2026. This macroeconomic uncertainty has outweighed positive company-specific news.
2. Disappointing 2026 Guidance and Margin Pressure
While Dutch Bros reported an earnings per share of $0.17 and revenue of $443.61 million for Q4 2025, exceeding analyst estimates, the company's full-year 2026 revenue guidance of approximately $2 billion to $2.03 billion, and Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $355 million to $365 million, were slightly below some analyst expectations. Additionally, Dutch Bros anticipates approximately 60 basis points of net adjusted EBITDA margin pressure in 2026, primarily due to elevated coffee costs and occupancy expenses.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -8.7% change in BROS stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -28.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 61.22 | 55.91 | -8.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,537 | 1,638 | 6.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.0% | 4.9% | 20.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 125.2 | 89.0 | -28.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 127 | 127 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -8.7% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BROS | -8.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 53.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | -5.5% | 47.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 6.8% change in BROS stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 23.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 52.34 | 55.91 | 6.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,452 | 1,638 | 12.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.9% | 4.9% | 23.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 115.6 | 89.0 | -23.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 126 | 127 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 6.8% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BROS | 6.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 49.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | -5.6% | 50.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -9.4% change in BROS stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -55.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 61.74 | 55.91 | -9.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,281 | 1,638 | 27.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.8% | 4.9% | 77.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 200.9 | 89.0 | -55.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 115 | 127 | -9.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -9.4% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BROS | -9.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 52.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | 15.0% | 53.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 76.8% change in BROS stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 121.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 31.63 | 55.91 | 76.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 739 | 1,638 | 121.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.4 | 4.3 | 83.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 55 | 127 | -56.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 76.8% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BROS | 76.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 39.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | 54.4% | 39.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BROS Return | 39% | -45% | 12% | 65% | 17% | -9% | 52% |
| Peers Return | 15% | -0% | 11% | -4% | 14% | 7% | 51% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 82% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BROS Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 58% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 45% | 57% | 47% | 53% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BROS Max Drawdown | 0% | -51% | -19% | -19% | -9% | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -8% | -25% | -7% | -16% | -9% | -3% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: SBUX, QSR, MNST, MCD, YUM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/10/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BROS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -70.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 234.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 505 days | 464 days |
Compare to SBUX, QSR, MNST, MCD, YUM
In The Past
Dutch Bros's stock fell -70.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/1/2021. A -70.1% loss requires a 234.3% gain to breakeven.
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About Dutch Bros (BROS)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Dutch Bros:
- A drive-thru-only Starbucks.
- The In-N-Out Burger of specialty coffee.
- Like Dunkin' but specializing in trendier coffee and energy drinks.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Espresso-Based Beverages: A range of hot and cold coffee drinks crafted with espresso.
- Cold Brew Coffee Products: Coffee products specifically prepared using the cold brewing method.
- Blue Rebel Energy Drinks: Proprietary energy drinks offered by Dutch Bros.
- Tea: Various tea offerings available to customers.
- Lemonade: Refreshing lemonade beverages.
- Smoothies: Blended fruit drinks.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Dutch Bros (BROS) primarily sells its beverages and products directly to individual consumers through its drive-thru shops and online channels. As such, it does not have major corporate customers. Instead, its customer base can be categorized into the following groups:
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Regular Commuters and Daily Habit Drinkers: These customers integrate Dutch Bros into their daily routines, often stopping by for a quick, convenient, and consistent coffee or energy drink on their way to work, school, or during their daily errands.
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Younger Consumers and Energy Drink Enthusiasts: A significant portion of Dutch Bros' appeal is to a younger demographic, including students and young adults, who are drawn to its "Blue Rebel" energy drinks, customizable options, and generally vibrant brand image.
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Casual Patrons and On-the-Go Families: This category includes individuals and families seeking a treat, a quick refreshment, or a non-coffee option (like smoothies, lemonade, or tea). They may visit less frequently than daily commuters but appreciate the variety and convenience for a spontaneous stop or family outing.
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Christine Barone, Chief Executive Officer and President
Ms. Barone joined Dutch Bros in February 2023 as President and became CEO in January 2024. Before joining Dutch Bros, she served as CEO of True Food Kitchen and held various leadership roles at Starbucks for over five years. Earlier in her career, she held positions with Bain & Company and Raymond James. She holds a BA in Applied Mathematics and an MBA from Harvard University.
Joshua Guenser, Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Guenser became the Chief Financial Officer of Dutch Bros on or about February 19, 2024, succeeding Charley Jemley. Prior to Dutch Bros, he served as CFO for almost four years at Mod Pizza, where he oversaw financial operations for North American locations. He also spent over 10 years at Starbucks in various financial roles, most recently as Senior Vice President, Finance, Americas. Mr. Guenser began his career at KPMG, LLP.
Travis Boersma, Co-founder and Executive Chairman
Mr. Boersma co-founded Dutch Bros Coffee in 1992 with his late brother Dane Boersma. He is deeply involved in day-to-day operations and is invested in maintaining the company's culture.
Sumi Ghosh, President of Operations
Mr. Ghosh joined Dutch Bros in January 2024. He previously spent two years as Global VP of Nike Stores.
Jess Elmquist, Chief People Officer
Mr. Elmquist joined Dutch Bros in January 2024 and has nearly 30 years of experience leading people in founder-led and high-growth companies. Before Dutch Bros, he was Chief Human Resources Officer and Chief Evangelist for Phenom, a global HR technology company. He also held various leadership roles at Life Time, Inc., including Chief Learning Officer and Executive Vice President of Human Capital.
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Here are the key risks to the business of Dutch Bros (BROS):-
Rapid Expansion and Market Saturation
Dutch Bros is pursuing an aggressive expansion strategy, with plans for substantial new shop openings. While this fuels growth, it carries significant risks, including the potential to strain operational resources, leading to inconsistencies in product quality or customer service across locations. Rapid growth also increases the risk of market oversaturation and cannibalization, where new stores may pull sales away from existing ones in the same market. Furthermore, the capital-intensive nature of this expansion could pressure the company's financial position if new locations do not meet expected growth or profitability targets.
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Economic Sensitivity and Discretionary Spending
The company's performance is highly sensitive to macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rate changes, and overall economic downturns. A significant portion of Dutch Bros' sales (approximately 80%) comes from cold and energy drinks, which are often considered discretionary "treats" rather than daily necessities. In periods of economic tightening, consumers are more likely to cut back on such specialty beverages, potentially leading to greater volatility in same-store sales compared to brands that are integrated into daily routines.
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Commodity Price Volatility and Labor Cost Pressures
Dutch Bros is susceptible to fluctuations in the prices of key commodities like coffee and dairy, which are critical ingredients for its beverages. Rising commodity costs directly impact the company's cost of sales and can compress profit margins if not effectively managed through pricing strategies or operational efficiencies. Additionally, increasing labor costs, including legislated minimum wage increases, particularly in states with a significant Dutch Bros presence like California, pose a continuous challenge to operating margins. These cost pressures may necessitate menu price increases, which could, in turn, affect the company's competitive position and customer demand.
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The addressable markets for Dutch Bros' main products and services in the United States are sizable, reflecting the robust demand within the beverage and coffee shop industries.
Market Sizes for Dutch Bros' Main Products and Services (U.S. Region)
- Coffee Shops (Overall Market): The U.S. Coffee & Snack Shops industry market size is estimated at $75.5 billion in 2026. The U.S. branded coffee shop market, which includes establishments like Dutch Bros, had sales of $58.5 billion over the last 12 months as of October 2025, and is forecast to exceed $63 billion over the next 12 months, reaching $82 billion by 2030.
- Espresso-Based and Cold Brew Coffee Products (Ready-to-Drink Coffee): The United States ready-to-drink coffee market size is expected to grow from approximately $7.93 billion in 2025 to $8.31 billion in 2026, with a forecast to reach $10.98 billion by 2031.
- Blue Rebel Energy Drinks (Energy Drinks): The U.S. Energy Drinks Market was valued at approximately $24.0 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around $45.0 billion by 2032.
- Tea: The United States tea and tea-based beverages market size was valued at $12.85 billion in 2025, with projections to grow to $16.95 billion by 2032.
- Lemonade: The U.S. lemonade market size was estimated at $1.61 billion in 2024. It is projected to grow from $1.71 billion in 2025 to approximately $3.15 billion by 2035.
- Smoothies: The United States smoothie market size was valued at $7.07 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach $10.01 billion by 2034.
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Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- New Shop Openings and Market Expansion: Dutch Bros continues to emphasize aggressive unit growth by opening new locations. The company plans to open at least 181 new shops in 2026 and has a long-term U.S. unit opportunity of around 7,000 locations, with a target of 2,029 shops by 2029. This expansion includes significant potential in new markets, particularly in the Midwest and East Coast.
- Same-Shop Sales Growth: The company is focused on increasing sales at existing locations, driven by both higher customer transaction volume and an increase in average ticket size. In Q4 2025, Dutch Bros reported a 7.7% year-over-year systemwide same-shop sales increase, with systemwide transactions up 5.4%. Company-operated same-shop sales specifically grew by 9.7% with a 7.6% increase in transactions in the same period.
- Menu Innovation and Product Launches: Dutch Bros has successfully introduced new products, such as Protein Coffee and Boba, which have contributed to strong sales results across different dayparts. This innovation strategy is crucial for attracting new customers and encouraging existing ones to try new offerings.
- Dutch Rewards Program and Customer Engagement: The company's loyalty program, Dutch Rewards, is a significant driver of customer engagement and repeat business. With a record 65-66% of all transactions coming through the program, Dutch Bros can effectively provide relevant content and offers, refine personalization capabilities, and utilize gamification and segmentation to boost customer traffic and sales.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Dutch Bros has not engaged in significant share repurchases over the last 3-5 years, with reports indicating $0.00 in share buybacks.
Share Issuance
- In September 2023, Dutch Bros raised additional capital by issuing approximately 13.3 million shares of its Class A common stock through an underwritten public offering.
- The annual shares outstanding for Dutch Bros were 177.12 million in 2023, 154.204 million in 2024, and 164.522 million in 2025, reflecting an increase in outstanding shares.
Inbound Investments
- The company raised capital through the issuance and sale of approximately 13.3 million shares of Class A common stock in an underwritten public offering in September 2023.
Capital Expenditures
- Dutch Bros' capital expenditures were estimated to be between $240 million and $260 million for 2025.
- Projected capital expenditures for 2026 are estimated to be between $270 million and $290 million.
- The primary focus of these capital expenditures is the aggressive expansion of the company's footprint through opening new shops, with plans for at least 181 new locations in 2026, aiming for a total of 2,029 locations by 2029.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
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| 03312026 | SKY | Champion Homes | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | DPZ | Domino's Pizza | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | ETSY | Etsy | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.6% | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | OLLI | Ollie's Bargain Outlet | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | PATK | Patrick Industries | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 86.54 |
| Mkt Cap | 59.6 |
| Rev LTM | 8,864 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,510 |
| FCF LTM | 1,790 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,572 |
| CFO LTM | 2,054 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,841 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 27.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 27.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 59.6 |
| P/S | 4.9 |
| P/EBIT | 24.0 |
| P/E | 35.9 |
| P/CFO | 23.2 |
| Total Yield | 4.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 14.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 15.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 26.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 12.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -16.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -37.3% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Company-operated shops | 1,166 | 858 | 640 | 404 | 245 |
| Franchising and other | 115 | 108 | 99 | 94 | 83 |
| Total | 1,281 | 966 | 739 | 498 | 327 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Company-operated shops | 347 | 242 | 158 | ||
| Franchising and other | 85 | 76 | 65 | ||
| Segment depreciation and amortization | -92 | -67 | -42 | ||
| Selling, general and administrative | -234 | -205 | -184 | ||
| Total | 106 | 46 | -3 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $55.88 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 7.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/15/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -24.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $52.18 | $58.35 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 7.1% | -4.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 53.7% | 52.5% |
| Downside Capture | 0.86 | 0.66 |
| Upside Capture | 170.44 | 89.09 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 51.7% | 39.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.73 | 2.91 | 2.19 | 1.89 | 1.55 | 1.45 |
| Up Beta | 5.34 | 4.13 | 3.64 | 3.81 | 1.83 | 1.37 |
| Down Beta | 3.09 | 2.15 | 1.79 | 1.34 | 1.65 | 1.45 |
| Up Capture | 256% | 346% | 169% | 185% | 87% | 316% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 16 | 22 | 55 | 114 | 358 |
| Down Capture | 197% | 243% | 213% | 154% | 124% | 109% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 26 | 41 | 71 | 137 | 389 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BROS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BROS | 5.6% | 54.6% | 0.29 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 28.9% | 22.5% | 1.05 | 50.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 31.2% | 17.3% | 1.47 | 48.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 60.1% | 27.8% | 1.69 | -3.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 29.8% | 16.6% | 1.58 | 4.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 21.3% | 15.2% | 1.07 | 33.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -4.3% | 43.7% | 0.02 | 29.6% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BROS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BROS | 8.7% | 66.1% | 0.41 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.3% | 23.7% | 0.23 | 44.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.1% | 17.0% | 0.50 | 43.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.1% | 17.8% | 1.02 | 5.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.8% | 18.8% | 0.52 | 8.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.7% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 32.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.3% | 56.5% | 0.30 | 21.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BROS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BROS | 4.2% | 66.1% | 0.41 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.2% | 22.0% | 0.51 | 44.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.8% | 17.9% | 0.66 | 43.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.2% | 15.9% | 0.74 | 5.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.41 | 8.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 32.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.6% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 21.1% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/12/2026 | 4.7% | -4.0% | -1.1% |
| 11/5/2025 | -4.2% | 3.7% | 4.5% |
| 8/6/2025 | 21.6% | 16.9% | 14.2% |
| 5/7/2025 | 8.8% | 21.4% | 23.4% |
| 2/12/2025 | 29.1% | 26.8% | -3.4% |
| 11/6/2024 | 28.1% | 35.8% | 57.8% |
| 8/7/2024 | -19.8% | -19.8% | -15.6% |
| 5/7/2024 | 11.8% | 26.9% | 35.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 10 | 10 |
| # Negative | 6 | 8 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 10.3% | 16.9% | 18.8% |
| Median Negative | -11.2% | -12.3% | -11.2% |
| Max Positive | 29.1% | 35.8% | 57.8% |
| Max Negative | -26.9% | -25.5% | -21.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/13/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/12/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Total Revenues | 2.00 Bil | 2.02 Bil | 2.03 Bil | Higher New | |||
| 2026 Same Shop Sales Growth | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | Higher New | |||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 355.00 Mil | 360.00 Mil | 365.00 Mil | Higher New | |||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 270.00 Mil | 280.00 Mil | 290.00 Mil | Higher New | |||
| 2026 Total System Shop Openings | 181 | 3.4% | Raised | Guidance: 175 for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Revenue | 1.61 Bil | 1.61 Bil | 1.61 Bil | 1.1% | Raised | Guidance: 1.59 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Same shop sales growth | 5.0% | 11.1% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 4.5% for 2025 | ||
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 285.00 Mil | 287.50 Mil | 290.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 287.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Capital expenditures | 240.00 Mil | 250.00 Mil | 260.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 250.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Total system shop openings | 160 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 160 for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Total system shop openings | 175 | ||||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boersma, Travis | Executive Chairman of Board | DM Trust Aggregator, LLC | Sell | 11262025 | 53.41 | 504,259 | 26,930,391 | 55,869,857 | Form |
| 2 | Boersma, Travis | Executive Chairman of Board | DM Trust Aggregator, LLC | Sell | 11262025 | 55.44 | 1,030,527 | 57,129,561 | 865,375 | Form |
| 3 | Boersma, Travis | Executive Chairman of Board | DM Individual Aggregator, LLC | Sell | 11262025 | 53.41 | 317,125 | 16,936,338 | 35,136,046 | Form |
| 4 | Boersma, Travis | Executive Chairman of Board | DM Individual Aggregator, LLC | Sell | 11262025 | 55.44 | 648,089 | 35,928,253 | 544,227 | Form |
| 5 | Dm, Individual Aggregator, Llc | Direct | Sell | 11262025 | 53.41 | 317,125 | 16,936,338 | 35,136,046 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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