Tearsheet

Dutch Bros (BROS)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $63.05 | Market Cap: $8.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants

Dutch Bros (BROS)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $63.05
Market Cap: $8.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Restaurants

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.3x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 48x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 107x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Consumer Convenience & Service Innovation. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Drive-Thru Excellence.
  Key risks
BROS key risks include [1] operational strain and market saturation from its aggressive national expansion and [2] heightened sales volatility due to a product mix heavily dependent on discretionary 'treat' beverages.
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Consumer Convenience & Service Innovation. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Drive-Thru Excellence.
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.3x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 48x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 107x
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2%
6 Key risks
BROS key risks include [1] operational strain and market saturation from its aggressive national expansion and [2] heightened sales volatility due to a product mix heavily dependent on discretionary 'treat' beverages.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

BROS Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining Dutch Bros' (BROS) stock movement of -12.3% from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:

1. Analyst Price Target Reductions and Downgrades: Several analyst firms adjusted their outlook on Dutch Bros. Goldman Sachs Group, for instance, dropped its price objective from $81.00 to $72.00 and set a "neutral" rating on Tuesday, September 30, 2025. Similarly, Piper Sandler reduced its price target from $73.00 to $63.00 and issued a "neutral" rating on Thursday, November 6, 2025.

2. High Valuation Concerns: Despite reporting strong Q3 2025 earnings that surpassed analyst expectations, the stock continued to trade at a high valuation, with P/E ratios reported around 117.74 to 122.1. This elevated valuation may have made the stock susceptible to a correction or increased investor caution.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
BROS Return-45%12%65%18%
Peers Return18%15%-0%11%-4%15%67%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
BROS Win Rate33%42%50%58%58% 
Peers Win Rate62%55%45%57%47%55% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
BROS Max Drawdown-51%-19%-19%-9% 
Peers Max Drawdown-37%-8%-25%-7%-16%-9% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SBUX, QSR, MNST, MCD, YUM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventBROSS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-70.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven234.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven505 days464 days

Compare to GST, BH, RICK, BRCB, CADV


In The Past

Dutch Bros's stock fell -70.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/1/2021. A -70.1% loss requires a 234.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Dutch Bros (BROS)

Better Bets than Dutch Bros (BROS)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to BROS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Dutch Bros

Peers to compare with:

Financials

BROSSBUXQSRMNSTMCDYUMMedian
NameDutch Br.StarbucksRestaura.Monster .McDonald.Yum Bran. 
Mkt Price63.0185.2170.2074.33318.69153.1479.77
Mkt Cap8.096.223.072.6227.242.657.6
Rev LTM1,53737,1849,1067,97526,2638,0618,584
Op Inc LTM1433,5812,3482,25812,1132,4852,416
FCF LTM652,4421,3541,9457,3721,5641,754
FCF 3Y Avg-183,1451,2401,6427,0491,4131,527
CFO LTM2784,7481,5882,18010,4851,9062,043
CFO 3Y Avg2065,6171,4051,8889,7041,7121,800

Growth & Margins

BROSSBUXQSRMNSTMCDYUMMedian
NameDutch Br.StarbucksRestaura.Monster .McDonald.Yum Bran. 
Rev Chg LTM28.9%2.8%21.8%7.6%1.2%11.6%9.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg31.4%5.0%14.2%8.6%4.2%6.4%7.5%
Rev Chg Q25.2%5.5%15.9%16.8%3.0%8.4%12.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM5.9%1.3%3.8%4.1%0.8%1.9%2.9%
Op Mgn LTM9.3%9.6%25.8%28.3%46.1%30.8%27.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg7.4%13.0%28.8%27.6%45.9%31.7%28.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.1%-0.8%-0.6%1.4%-0.0%-0.0%-0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM18.1%12.8%17.4%27.3%39.9%23.6%20.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg16.5%15.4%18.1%25.3%37.7%23.0%20.5%
FCF/Rev LTM4.3%6.6%14.9%24.4%28.1%19.4%17.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-2.9%8.7%16.0%22.0%27.4%18.9%17.5%

Valuation

BROSSBUXQSRMNSTMCDYUMMedian
NameDutch Br.StarbucksRestaura.Monster .McDonald.Yum Bran. 
Mkt Cap8.096.223.072.6227.242.657.6
P/S4.32.62.38.28.25.24.8
P/EBIT47.6-9.829.017.716.917.7
P/E107.151.824.538.125.729.233.6
P/CFO23.920.313.230.120.722.221.4
Total Yield0.9%4.8%9.2%2.6%6.2%5.3%5.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.9%5.1%0.0%2.3%1.8%2.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-2.4%-5.8%2.9%3.4%3.6%3.4%
D/E0.2-0.80.00.30.30.3
Net D/E0.1-0.7-0.00.20.20.2

Returns

BROSSBUXQSRMNSTMCDYUMMedian
NameDutch Br.StarbucksRestaura.Monster .McDonald.Yum Bran. 
1M Rtn22.1%1.8%3.1%3.5%5.2%3.9%3.7%
3M Rtn8.7%3.1%9.9%11.7%5.1%3.8%6.9%
6M Rtn-9.8%-6.4%8.3%17.6%11.3%11.7%9.8%
12M Rtn19.0%-5.0%8.0%43.1%10.1%15.9%13.0%
3Y Rtn104.4%-7.3%17.6%47.5%28.4%25.4%26.9%
1M Excs Rtn21.3%1.1%2.4%2.7%4.4%3.2%3.0%
3M Excs Rtn7.1%1.5%10.2%13.6%5.1%4.6%6.1%
6M Excs Rtn-22.1%-18.8%-4.1%5.3%-1.1%-0.6%-2.6%
12M Excs Rtn10.0%-21.3%-4.4%29.8%-1.1%2.9%0.9%
3Y Excs Rtn20.4%-79.2%-53.2%-21.0%-44.9%-43.3%-44.1%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil2024202320222021
Company-operated shops858640404245
Franchising and other108999483
Total966739498327


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil2024202320222021
Company-operated shops242158  
Franchising and other7665  
Segment depreciation and amortization-67-42  
Selling, general and administrative-205-184  
Total46-3  


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity13,702,370
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202513.6%
Average Daily Volume3,883,720
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.53
Basic Shares Quantity126,986,000
Short % of Basic Shares10.8%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/2025-4.2%3.7%4.5%
8/6/202521.6%16.9%14.2%
5/7/20258.8%21.4%23.4%
2/12/202529.1%26.8%-3.4%
11/6/202428.1%35.8%57.8%
8/7/2024-19.8%-19.8%-15.6%
5/7/202411.8%26.9%35.9%
2/21/20241.3%6.1%31.7%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111010
# Negative677
Median Positive11.8%16.9%18.8%
Median Negative-11.2%-15.8%-15.6%
Max Positive29.1%35.8%57.8%
Max Negative-26.9%-25.5%-21.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024213202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023223202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221110202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022811202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022512202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021311202210-K 12/31/2021