Tearsheet

Dutch Bros (BROS)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $61.44 | Market Cap: $7.8 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants

Dutch Bros (BROS)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $61.44
Market Cap: $7.8 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Restaurants

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -0.4%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.3x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 48x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 107x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Consumer Convenience & Service Innovation. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Drive-Thru Excellence.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Consumer Convenience & Service Innovation. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Drive-Thru Excellence.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -0.4%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.3x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 48x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 107x
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

BROS Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Dutch Bros (BROS) stock moved by -14.8% from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: **1. Significant Insider Selling.** Large insider transactions occurred in late November 2025, with Chairman Travis Boersma selling approximately 1.68 million shares, valued at around $93.1 million. Additionally, Dm Individual Aggregator, LLC, a major shareholder, sold 648,089 shares for approximately $35.9 million on November 25, 2025. Total insider sales over the 90 days leading up to early December amounted to roughly 3.47 million shares, totaling about $189.8 million.

**2. Q3 2025 Margin Pressures.** Despite reporting better-than-expected third-quarter 2025 earnings for both revenue and adjusted EPS on November 5, 2025, the company experienced a decline in its company-operated shop contribution margin, which decreased from 29.5% in Q3 2024 to 27.8% in Q3 2025. This was primarily attributed to increased costs in beverage, food, and packaging. Furthermore, gross profit for the quarter declined by 8.5% year-over-year despite a 25% revenue surge, indicating underlying cost pressures.

**3. High Valuation and Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio.** Dutch Bros continued to trade at a high valuation during this period, with a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 117.80 and a forward P/E ratio of 103.33 as of early December 2025. Such a high valuation often implies significant future growth expectations, making the stock susceptible to downward movements if any concerns about growth or profitability emerge, or if market sentiment shifts.

**4. Analyst Price Target Adjustments.** While many analysts maintained "Buy" or "Strong Buy" ratings, some adjusted their price targets downwards within the specified timeframe. For instance, Stifel Nicolaus reduced its price target from $82.00 to $75.00 on October 31, 2025, and Wells Fargo & Company cut its target from $80.00 to $70.00 on October 16, 2025. Piper Sandler also issued a lower price target of $63.00 on November 6, 2025. These revisions, despite often still suggesting upside, could contribute to a more cautious investor outlook and exert downward pressure on the stock.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
BROS Return---45%12%65%13%16%
Peers Return18%25%3%-2%8%-7%51%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
BROS Win Rate-33%42%50%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate20%23%20%15%18%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
BROS Max Drawdown---51%-19%-19%-9% 
Peers Max Drawdown-26%-2%-12%-9%-10%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GST, BH, RICK, BRCB, CADV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventBROSS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-70.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven234.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven505 days464 days

Compare to GST, BH, RICK, BRCB, CADV


In The Past

Dutch Bros's stock fell -70.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/1/2021. A -70.1% loss requires a 234.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Dutch Bros (BROS)

Better Bets than Dutch Bros (BROS)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to BROS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Dutch Bros

Peers to compare with:

Financials

BROSGSTBHRICKBRCBCADVMedian
NameDutch Br.Ga Sai T.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.Club Ver. 
Mkt Price61.21-308.6025.1824.68-43.20
Mkt Cap7.8-0.40.2--0.4
Rev LTM1,537-387282--387
Op Inc LTM143-2447--47
FCF LTM65-8134--65
FCF 3Y Avg-18-5428--28
CFO LTM278-10751--107
CFO 3Y Avg206-8056--80

Growth & Margins

BROSGSTBHRICKBRCBCADVMedian
NameDutch Br.Ga Sai T.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.Club Ver. 
Rev Chg LTM28.9%-6.9%-5.3%--6.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg31.4%-1.7%4.2%--4.2%
Rev Chg Q25.2%-10.3%-6.6%--10.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM5.9%-2.5%-1.8%--2.5%
Op Mgn LTM9.3%-6.2%16.6%--9.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg7.4%-8.1%19.8%--8.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.1%-1.0%-1.3%--0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM18.1%-27.7%18.2%--18.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg16.5%-21.3%19.4%--19.4%
FCF/Rev LTM4.3%-21.0%11.9%--11.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-2.9%-14.2%9.7%--9.7%

Valuation

BROSGSTBHRICKBRCBCADVMedian
NameDutch Br.Ga Sai T.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.Club Ver. 
Mkt Cap7.8-0.40.2--0.4
P/S4.3-1.11.2--1.2
P/EBIT47.6-61.29.3--47.6
P/E107.1-200.820.2--107.1
P/CFO23.9-3.96.5--6.5
Total Yield0.9%-0.5%5.7%--0.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%-0.0%0.7%--0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-2.4%-17.5%6.6%--6.6%
D/E0.2-0.80.8--0.8
Net D/E0.1--0.10.7--0.1

Returns

BROSGSTBHRICKBRCBCADVMedian
NameDutch Br.Ga Sai T.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.Club Ver. 
1M Rtn12.3%--13.3%4.9%1.7%-3.3%
3M Rtn-14.6%--0.4%-29.4%---14.6%
6M Rtn-15.4%-18.5%-37.8%---15.4%
12M Rtn12.5%-37.8%-50.0%--12.5%
3Y Rtn65.2%-112.9%-71.6%--65.2%
1M Excs Rtn12.4%--13.2%4.9%1.7%-3.3%
3M Excs Rtn-19.7%--6.1%-35.6%---19.7%
6M Excs Rtn-30.1%-3.8%-52.5%---30.1%
12M Excs Rtn0.4%-33.1%-65.2%--0.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-0.4%-47.2%-143.8%---0.4%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity12,059,146
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202511.2%
Average Daily Volume4,788,410
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.52
Basic Shares Quantity126,986,000
Short % of Basic Shares9.5%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024213202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023223202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221110202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022811202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022512202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021311202210-K 12/31/2021