XCF Global (SAFX)
Market Price (10/31/2025): $0.92 | Market Cap: $122.9 MilSector: Utilities | Industry: Renewable Electricity
XCF Global (SAFX)
Market Price (10/31/2025): $0.92Market Cap: $122.9 MilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Renewable Electricity
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 90%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 86% | Penny stockMkt Price is 0.9 | |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -24 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -368% | ||
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 214% | ||
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 18x |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 90%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 86% |
| Penny stockMkt Price is 0.9 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -24 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -368% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 214% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 18x |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
SAFX Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SAFX Return | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0% |
| Peers Return | 21% | -7% | -18% | -14% | -19% | 56% | 1% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SAFX Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 23% | 25% | 40% | 50% | 71% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SAFX Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -14% | -15% | -29% | -27% | -32% | -30% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: STEM, ELLO, BEPC, ORA, ENLT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/30/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
SAFX has limited trading history. Below is the Utilities sector ETF (XLU) in its place.
| Event | XLU | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 347 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -36.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 633 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -16.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 308 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -48.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2058 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -28.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/12/2022. A -28.1% loss requires a 39.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SAFX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09302025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.5% | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| 05312025 | VST | Vistra | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 18.4% | 18.4% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09302025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.5% | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| 05312025 | VST | Vistra | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 18.4% | 18.4% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for XCF Global
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 27.55 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.2 |
| Rev LTM | 303 |
| Op Inc LTM | 87 |
| FCF LTM | -115 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -125 |
| CFO LTM | 193 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 164 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -5.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 30.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -29.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -36.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.2 |
| P/S | 6.7 |
| P/EBIT | 11.7 |
| P/E | -2.3 |
| P/CFO | 18.9 |
| Total Yield | 0.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -25.8% |
| D/E | 2.0 |
| Net D/E | 1.9 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 17.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 50.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 61.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 7.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 12.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 28.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 30.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -72.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 10162025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 9302024 | 2062025 | 424B3 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 10312024 | S-4/A 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 7312024 | S-4 3/31/2024 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |