XCF Global (SAFX)
Market Price (1/24/2026): $0.1379 | Market Cap: $21.1 MilSector: Utilities | Industry: Renewable Electricity
XCF Global (SAFX)
Market Price (1/24/2026): $0.1379Market Cap: $21.1 MilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Renewable Electricity
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 406%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 402% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -143%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -176% | Penny stockMkt Price is 0.1 |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -96% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -37 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -232% | |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 622% | ||
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 166% | ||
| Key risksSAFX key risks include [1] a critical funding crisis and a lender dispute threatening foreclosure, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 406%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 402% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -96% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -143%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -176% |
| Penny stockMkt Price is 0.1 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -37 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -232% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 622% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 166% |
| Key risksSAFX key risks include [1] a critical funding crisis and a lender dispute threatening foreclosure, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Nasdaq Non-Compliance and Delisting Risk: XCF Global received a Nasdaq delinquency notification in August 2025 for its failure to file its Q2 2025 Form 10-Q on time, with an expectation to file by September 30, 2025. Subsequently, the company received a non-compliance notice from Nasdaq on December 9, 2025, as its stock price had closed below the $1.00 minimum bid price for 30 consecutive business days, from October 27, 2025, to December 8, 2025. This triggered a delisting risk, and the company was given 180 calendar days, until June 8, 2026, to regain compliance.
2. Significant Operational and Financial Challenges: An analysis of an SEC filing in December 2025 highlighted several critical funding and operational risks. These included uncertainty regarding the resumption of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production as early as the first quarter of 2026 due to ongoing operational problems, which would severely impact revenues and profits. Furthermore, the company was embroiled in a serious dispute with its landlord over the ground lease for its Reno facility, a situation that could completely halt operations if the landlord prevailed. Adding to these woes, XCF Global was also in a dispute with its primary lender for the Reno facility loans, with the lender having already accelerated a loan balance exceeding $130 million, threatening foreclosure and posing another significant blow to operations and revenue.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -89.5% change in SAFX stock from 9/30/2025 to 1/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 1232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.31 | 0.14 | -89.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | � | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 149 | 149 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 1/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SAFX | -89.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.5% | 8.2% |
| Sector (XLU) | -2.4% | 6.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -92.2% change in SAFX stock from 6/30/2025 to 1/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 1232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.76 | 0.14 | -92.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | � | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 149 | 149 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 1/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SAFX | -92.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.9% | 13.3% |
| Sector (XLU) | 4.9% | 11.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/31/2024 to 1/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SAFX | ||
| Market (SPY) | 18.6% | 8.3% |
| Sector (XLU) | 14.8% | 2.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/31/2022 to 1/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SAFX | ||
| Market (SPY) | 86.9% | 8.3% |
| Sector (XLU) | 31.4% | 2.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SAFX Return | - | - | - | - | -99% | -49% | -100% |
| Peers Return | 54% | 11% | -17% | -3% | 11% | 13% | 73% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 1% | 84% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SAFX Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 14% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 53% | 50% | 43% | 57% | 100% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 100% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SAFX Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -99% | -50% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -1% | -20% | -29% | -33% | -31% | -1% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GEVO, DAR, VLO, CVX, GPRE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 1/23/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
SAFX has limited trading history. Below is the Utilities sector ETF (XLU) in its place.
| Event | XLU | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 347 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -36.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 633 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -16.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 308 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -48.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2,058 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to GEVO, DAR, VLO, CVX, GPRE
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -28.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/12/2022. A -28.1% loss requires a 39.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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```html- SAFX is like **Realty Income (O)**, but specializing solely in owning and leasing the *ground* beneath high-quality commercial properties, rather than entire buildings.
- SAFX is like **American Tower (AMT)**, but for prime urban *land* rather than cell towers, owning the foundational asset and leasing it out for long-term income.
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Major Services of XCF Global (SAFX)
- Management & Strategy Consulting: XCF Global provides strategic guidance and operational consulting to help businesses optimize performance, navigate market changes, and achieve growth objectives.
- Technology Solutions & Integration: The company designs, develops, and integrates custom software, cloud platforms, and enterprise systems to enhance digital capabilities and operational efficiency.
- Digital Transformation Services: XCF Global assists organizations in modernizing their business processes, adopting emerging technologies, and fostering innovation to create new value and customer experiences.
- Financial Advisory Services: The firm offers expert advice on mergers & acquisitions, corporate finance, restructuring, and risk management, supporting clients in complex financial transactions and strategic decisions.
- Global Outsourcing & Business Process Services (BPS): XCF Global delivers scalable and efficient outsourced solutions for back-office operations, IT support, and other non-core functions, enabling clients to focus on their core competencies.
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The public company SAFeXperts Global Corp (symbol: SAFX) primarily sells its services to other companies (Business-to-Business or B2B).
Specific major customer names that account for a significant portion of SAFeXperts Global Corp's revenue are not publicly disclosed in their regulatory filings or on their corporate website. This is a common practice for consulting and training firms that serve a diversified client base and where no single customer represents over 10% of total revenue, which would otherwise require disclosure.
Based on their service offerings, which include SAFe (Scaled Agile Framework) training, consulting, and implementation services, their typical B2B customer base consists of:
- Large Enterprises and Corporations: Companies across various industries such as technology, financial services, healthcare, manufacturing, and government agencies. These organizations are typically undergoing digital transformation, agile adoption, or are looking to scale their agile practices across multiple teams and departments using the Scaled Agile Framework. They seek SAFeXperts' expertise to improve organizational agility, efficiency, and product delivery.
- Mid-sized Companies: Growing businesses that are implementing structured agile methodologies to manage complex projects, product development, and organizational change effectively.
- Organizations Seeking Professional Development: Companies that invest in training and certification for their employees in SAFe methodologies to build internal capability, standardize practices, and foster a culture of continuous improvement within their workforce.
While SAFeXperts Global Corp primarily serves other businesses, they also cater to individuals (Business-to-Consumer or B2C) who seek SAFe certification courses for personal career advancement or are sponsored by their employers.
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Chris Cooper, Chief Executive Officer and Board Director
Mr. Cooper was appointed Chief Executive Officer and Board Director of XCF Global, effective November 7, 2025. He is a seasoned energy-transition executive with over 25 years of experience in the global energy industry. Prior to joining XCF Global, he served as President of Neste U.S. (North America), overseeing regional leadership for renewable products and leading strategy, operations, and stakeholder engagement for one of the world's largest producers of renewable fuels, including Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). Mr. Cooper also served as Head of Renewables Trading at BGN, where he led global trading activities for renewable fuels. Earlier in his career, he held senior leadership roles at Phillips 66 and Chevron, where he developed extensive expertise across downstream operations, renewable fuels integration, and global energy supply chains. He is also a professional pilot, bringing a unique perspective on the aviation sector.
Simon Oxley, Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Oxley has served as Chief Financial Officer of XCF Global since February 2025. He brings over 20 years of experience in the energy and finance sectors, with a strong track record in capital planning, acquisitions, and corporate finance. Before joining XCF Global, Mr. Oxley was Executive Vice President and CFO of Tellurian, Inc., an LNG development company, from June 2023 until its $1.2 billion acquisition by Woodside Energy in October 2024. He also spent two decades in investment banking, holding senior leadership roles at Barclays Investment Bank and Citigroup Global Markets, where he played a critical role in numerous LNG and energy sector transactions.
Wray Thorn, Interim Board Chair
Mr. Thorn was appointed Interim Board Chair of XCF Global, effective November 7, 2025. He is a Partner and Co-Founder of Focus Impact Partners, LLC and currently serves as the Chief Investment Officer of Focus Impact Acquisition Corp. Since 2021, Mr. Thorn has also been the Founder and Chief Executive of Clear Heights Capital. From 2012 to 2021, he was a Managing Director and Chief Investment Officer - Private Investments at Two Sigma Investments, where he architected and led the firm's private equity, venture capital, and impact investment businesses. Mr. Thorn has approximately three decades of experience as a chief investment officer, investment leader, and lead director.
Gregory R. Surette, Chief Strategy Officer
Mr. Surette was appointed Chief Strategy Officer of XCF Global in February 2025. He brings over 18 years of corporate finance and accounting expertise, with a specialized emphasis on energy and resources, as well as manufacturing and distribution. Since 2019, Mr. Surette has served as Chief Financial and Operating Officer of The Ricci Group Limited, where he oversaw its coffee and hospitality investments in Mainland China and was instrumental in building its global supply chain.
Randy Soule, Senior Operations Adviser
Mr. Soule serves as a Senior Operations Adviser to XCF Global. He is the founder of New Rise Renewables and works closely with the CEO on operational matters for the company's New Rise Reno facility.
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The key risks to XCF Global (SAFX) are:
- Critical Funding and Liquidity Challenges: XCF Global faces significant financial instability, including an acknowledged lack of sufficient funding to execute its business plan, substantial cash burn, and considerable liabilities. The company is in a dispute with its primary lender, who has accelerated a loan balance exceeding $130 million, raising the risk of foreclosure that could severely impact operations and revenue. Furthermore, the company has received a Nasdaq delinquency letter for delayed filing of its Q2 Form 10-Q, highlighting compliance issues stemming from financial reporting delays. There is also concern about the company's ability to continue as a "going concern" without securing substantial new funding.
- Operational Instability and Facility Disputes: The company's main production facility in Reno, Nevada, has experienced persistent issues with both Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and renewable diesel production. While SAF production is anticipated to resume as early as Q1 2026, its certainty remains unconfirmed. Compounding these operational hurdles is a serious dispute with the landlord regarding the ground lease for the Reno facility, with the risk that a loss in this dispute could lead to the landlord taking possession and completely halting operations at this critical site.
- Management Experience Gaps and Related Party Dependence: XCF Global's management team has a noted lack of direct experience in constructing SAF facilities. The company heavily relies on third-party service providers, including one controlled by its largest stockholder, which presents a significant risk due to potential conflicts of interest and reduced operational autonomy. This reliance on key individuals and related party transactions further compounds the company's risk profile.
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XCF Global (SAFX) primarily focuses on the production and sale of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF).
- The addressable market for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) in the **U.S.** is projected to reach approximately $7 billion by 2030.
- The addressable market for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) **globally** is expected to exceed $25 billion by 2030.
- Looking further ahead, the global SAF market could potentially exceed $250 billion by 2050.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for XCF Global (SAFX)
XCF Global (SAFX), a company focused on Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production, is poised for future revenue growth driven by several key factors over the next 2-3 years:
- Expanding Production Capacity: XCF Global's New Rise Reno facility, which began producing neat SAF in February 2025 and is currently in a ramp-up phase, is expected to bring SAF production back online as early as Q1 2026 with an estimated annualized production capacity of 38 million gallons. This facility represents a significant existing asset contributing to future revenue. Furthermore, a "Reno Expansion" project, a second facility, is anticipated to launch in 2028, adding approximately 40 million gallons of annual neat SAF production capacity.
- Strategic Partnerships and New Market Development: The company has formed a partnership with New Rise Australia, which is slated to develop three SAF sites across Australia. Additionally, XCF Global, in collaboration with Southern Energy Renewables Inc. and DevvStream Corp., has announced a non-binding memorandum of understanding (MOU) to explore a next-generation low-carbon fuels platform. This initiative aims to accelerate SAF adoption, expand domestic capacity, and integrate environmental-attribute monetization. This collaboration could potentially lead to the development of a HEFA-based "Gen 1" SAF facility in Louisiana. These partnerships and explorations into new production facilities in different geographies signify future revenue streams from expanded market reach.
- Increasing Global Demand and Favorable Policy Landscape for SAF: The global demand for SAF is experiencing a significant shift, with XCF Global's CEO, Mihir Dange, noting that "Global demand for SAF is shifting from 'if' to 'how fast'". Governments worldwide are implementing mandates and incentive schemes to accelerate SAF adoption. For instance, the U.S. aims for 3 billion gallons of domestic SAF consumption annually by 2030, while Europe's ReFuelEU Aviation regulation mandates SAF to comprise 2% of jet fuel by 2025, increasing to 70% by 2050. The UK has also set mandates starting at 2% in 2025. This strong regulatory push and growing market need provide a substantial tailwind for XCF Global's revenue growth. The SAF market is projected to exceed $25 billion by 2030 and reach approximately $270 billion by 2050.
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Here is a summary of XCF Global's (SAFX) capital allocation decisions over the last 3-5 years:Share Issuance
- XCF Global's Class A common stock began trading on Nasdaq under the symbol "SAFX" on June 9, 2025, following the closing of its business combination with Focus Impact BH3 Acquisition Company on June 6, 2025.
- As of July 10, 2025, approximately 149.3 million shares were outstanding.
- An S-1/A filing on November 26, 2025, registered 187,180,141 shares of Class A common stock for resale by existing stockholders, including 6,400,000 shares issuable upon exercise of Private Placement Warrants. XCF Global itself will not receive proceeds from these resales, other than potential cash if warrants are exercised.
Outbound Investments
- XCF Global is pursuing international expansion through a Memorandum of Understanding to launch New Rise Australia in partnership with Continual Renewable Ventures.
Capital Expenditures
- XCF Global plans to invest nearly $1 billion in Synthetic Aviation Fuel (SAF) production facilities by 2028.
- The company has already invested $350 million in its operational New Rise Reno facility.
- The expansion strategy includes three additional U.S. production sites in Reno, Fort Myers, and Wilson, aiming for a total production capacity of 160 million gallons annually by 2028, with the Wilson site being converted from a biodiesel plant to a SAF facility.
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons for XCF Global
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 27.21 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.8 |
| Rev LTM | 4,045 |
| Op Inc LTM | 173 |
| FCF LTM | 476 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 428 |
| CFO LTM | 774 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 844 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -6.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -1.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 3.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
External Quote Links
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| FinViz |
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