XCF Global (SAFX)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $0.4301 | Market Cap: $65.9 MilSector: Utilities | Industry: Renewable Electricity
XCF Global (SAFX)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $0.4301Market Cap: $65.9 MilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Renewable Electricity
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 146%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 142% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -121%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -161% | Penny stockMkt Price is 0.4 |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -88% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -37 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -232% | |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 223% | ||
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 237% | ||
| Key risksSAFX key risks include [1] a critical funding crisis and a lender dispute threatening foreclosure, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 146%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 142% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -88% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -121%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -161% |
| Penny stockMkt Price is 0.4 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -37 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -232% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 223% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 237% |
| Key risksSAFX key risks include [1] a critical funding crisis and a lender dispute threatening foreclosure, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. XCF Global has experienced persistent and significant net losses. The company reported a net loss of -$12.51 million in the third quarter of 2025 and a trailing twelve-month net loss of -$127.10 million ending September 30, 2025.
2. The company received a Nasdaq minimum bid price non-compliance notice, posing a delisting risk. In December 2025, SAFX's common stock closed below $1.00 per share for 30 consecutive business days, triggering a Nasdaq non-compliance notice. The company has until June 8, 2026, to regain compliance.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -47.2% change in SAFX stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a null change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 0.74 | 0.39 | -47.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 7 | 0 | |
| P/S Multiple | 16.8 | ∞ | 9.2233720368547763E17% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 149 | 149 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SAFX | -47.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.3% | 9.6% |
| Sector (XLU) | 1.4% | 6.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -73.1% change in SAFX stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.45 | 0.39 | -73.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | � | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 149 | 149 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SAFX | -73.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 8.5% |
| Sector (XLU) | 9.7% | 8.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SAFX | ||
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 7.8% |
| Sector (XLU) | 18.4% | 5.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SAFX | ||
| Market (SPY) | 69.4% | 7.8% |
| Sector (XLU) | 53.8% | 5.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SAFX Return | - | - | - | - | -99% | 65% | -99% |
| Peers Return | 54% | 11% | -17% | -3% | 11% | 49% | 127% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -5% | 72% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SAFX Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 14% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 53% | 50% | 43% | 57% | 87% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SAFX Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -99% | -50% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -1% | -20% | -29% | -33% | -31% | -3% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -5% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GEVO, DAR, VLO, CVX, GPRE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
SAFX has limited trading history. Below is the Utilities sector ETF (XLU) in its place.
| Event | XLU | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 347 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -36.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 633 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -16.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 308 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -48.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2,058 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to GEVO, DAR, VLO, CVX, GPRE
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -28.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/12/2022. A -28.1% loss requires a 39.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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About XCF Global (SAFX)
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```htmlChris Cooper, Chief Executive Officer and Executive Director
Chris Cooper brings over 25 years of experience in the global energy industry. He served as President of Neste U.S. (North America), overseeing regional leadership for renewable products, and as Head of Renewables Trading at BGN, where he led global trading activities for renewable fuels, including Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), renewable diesel, and biogenic feedstocks. Earlier in his career, he held leadership roles at Phillips 66 and Chevron.
William Dale, Chief Financial Officer
William Dale has more than 25 years of experience in capital management, finance, and operations within the energy and infrastructure sectors. Most recently, he served as Chief Financial Officer and Strategic Leader of Newbridge Resources Group LLC, where he built out the corporate finance function and oversaw financial planning, treasury, audits, and SEC reporting. Prior to that, he was Interim Chief Financial Officer of Tally Energy Services LLC, guiding enterprise system implementations and financial reporting. He also served as Chief Financial Officer and Operations Co-Lead at Aqua Terra Water Management LP.
Pamela Abowd, Chief Accounting Officer
Pamela Abowd brings over two decades of leadership experience in corporate accounting, tax, and financial operations across various energy industry sectors, including LNG, upstream, and infrastructure. She managed the post-merger accounting integration between Woodside Energy and Tellurian Inc. and served as Vice President, Corporate Controller and Head of Accounting Operations, and previously as Tax Director, at Tellurian.
Wray Thorn, Interim Board Chair
Wray Thorn is a Partner and Co-Founder of Focus Impact Partners, LLC, and currently serves as the Chief Investment Officer of Focus Impact Acquisition Corp. He is also the Founder and Chief Executive of Clear Heights Capital. From 2012 to 2021, he was the CIO - Private Investments at Two Sigma Investments, demonstrating extensive experience in private equity and capital formation.
Si-Yeon Kim, Non-executive Director; Chairperson, Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee
Si-Yeon Kim is a seasoned corporate board director, private equity advisor, and global risk expert with over 20 years of experience in M&A, private equity, and international operations across travel, payments, industrials, and decarbonization. She has held leadership roles at JP Morgan Chase, American Express Global Business Travel, and Avon.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
XCF Global (SAFX) is a sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) company focused on developing and operating SAF production facilities. Key risks to XCF Global's business include:- Critical Funding Crisis and Lender Dispute: The company faces a critical funding crisis and a dispute with lenders that could lead to foreclosure. This risk directly threatens the company's financial stability and ability to continue operations.
- Landlord Dispute and Production Facility Shutdown: XCF Global is involved in a landlord dispute that poses a risk of forcing the shutdown of its primary production facility. A cessation of operations at its main facility would severely impact its ability to produce sustainable aviation fuel.
- Persistent Net Losses and Nasdaq Delisting Risk: The company has experienced persistent and significant net losses, reporting a net loss of -$12.51 million in the third quarter of 2025, and a net loss of -$127.10 million for the trailing twelve months ending September 30, 2025. Furthermore, XCF Global received a Nasdaq minimum bid price non-compliance notice in December 2025, indicating a risk of delisting if it fails to regain compliance by June 8, 2026. These financial challenges and the potential loss of public market access create significant uncertainty for the company's future.
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XCF Global (SAFX) operates primarily in the production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). The company is focused on helping the aviation industry achieve net-zero emissions through its SAF production facilities.
The addressable markets for Sustainable Aviation Fuel are significant:
- The global SAF market is projected to exceed $25 billion.
- Looking further ahead, the global SAF market could exceed $250 billion by 2050.
- In the U.S., the SAF market is projected to reach approximately $7 billion by 2030. This represents a substantial increase from an estimated $860 million in 2024, showing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 47%.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for XCF Global (SAFX) over the next 2-3 years:
- Expansion of SAF Production Facilities: XCF Global is actively increasing its Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production capacity through the expansion of existing facilities and the development of new ones. The flagship New Rise Reno facility began commercial production in February 2025. The company plans to invest close to $1 billion to develop a broader network of SAF facilities, with additional sites projected for Nevada (New Rise Reno 2), North Carolina, and Florida. This includes a $10 million investment to convert and build out the New Rise Renewables Reno facility for SAF production utilizing Axens Vegan hydrotreating technology.
- Global Market Penetration: XCF Global aims to expand its reach beyond the United States by pursuing an international expansion strategy. This strategy is based on its patent-pending site design, which is intended to enable capital-efficient and scalable deployment of SAF production in global markets. The company has plans for an Australian synthetic fuel venture, with an initial 15-year license term tied to performance milestones, including the development of at least three SAF production facilities in Australia. Furthermore, XCF Global intends to jointly develop global distribution, marketing, and offtake frameworks across Europe, the Middle East, and other strategic markets through a non-binding Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with BGN INT US LLC.
- Increasing Demand for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF): The demand for SAF is rapidly growing, driven by regulatory mandates, airline decarbonization targets, and increasing investor interest in low-carbon fuels. The global SAF market is projected to exceed $25 billion by 2030, with demand potentially surpassing 5.5 billion gallons. XCF Global is positioned to capitalize on this expanding market as airlines and the broader aviation industry strive to reduce their carbon footprint.
- Strategic Partnerships and Business Combinations: XCF Global is forging strategic partnerships and pursuing business combinations to enhance its capabilities and market position. The company has entered into a binding term sheet for a proposed business combination with Southern Energy Renewables Inc. and DevvStream Corp. This combination is anticipated to significantly advance XCF Global's ability to assist airlines in reducing emissions and is expected to strengthen its access to lower-carbon, non-fossil-based solutions, aiding in meeting regulatory requirements and accelerating the availability of SAF options for the aviation sector. Additionally, XCF Global is exploring new revenue streams by converting propane-rich byproduct streams from SAF and renewable diesel production into renewable electricity and food-grade CO2.
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Share Issuance
- XCF Global's Class A common stock began trading on Nasdaq on June 9, 2025, following the closing of its business combination with Focus Impact BH3 Acquisition Company.
- In early 2026, shareholders approved the potential issuance of 19.99% or more of the company's common stock to a single investor via a private placement.
- The number of outstanding shares increased by 83.72% in one year.
Inbound Investments
- The business combination with Focus Impact BH3 Acquisition Company in June 2025 enabled XCF Global to become a publicly traded company and facilitated capital inflow.
- A large private placement proposal was approved by shareholders in early 2026, signaling investor confidence and potential capital infusion.
- Agreements were made to convert certain payables and promissory notes into shares of Class A common stock.
Outbound Investments
- XCF Global is pursuing an international expansion strategy, evidenced by a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to launch New Rise Australia in partnership with Continual Renewable Ventures for the development of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and renewable diesel facilities.
Capital Expenditures
- XCF Global plans to invest nearly $1 billion in Synthetic Aviation Fuel (SAF) production facilities by 2028.
- The company has already invested $350 million in its operational New Rise Reno facility, which commenced commercial production in February 2025.
- The expansion strategy includes three additional U.S. production sites in Reno, Fort Myers, and Wilson, with a goal of achieving a total production capacity of 160 million gallons annually by 2028.
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to SAFX.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12122025 | CTRI | Centuri | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 16.6% | 16.6% | -5.5% |
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.8% | 6.8% | -4.0% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.5% | 27.5% | -0.8% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 36.9% | 36.9% | -3.2% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 38.09 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.3 |
| Rev LTM | 4,114 |
| Op Inc LTM | 197 |
| FCF LTM | 679 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 509 |
| CFO LTM | 1,060 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 933 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -4.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -7.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.3 |
| P/S | 1.9 |
| P/EBIT | 9.2 |
| P/E | 16.8 |
| P/CFO | 10.6 |
| Total Yield | 2.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 23.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 49.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 40.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 93.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 26.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 29.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 56.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 44.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 83.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -31.8% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $0.39 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/09/2025 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -98.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $18.31 | $18.31 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -97.9% | -97.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 341.6% | 237.7% |
| Downside Capture | 2.28 | 4.10 |
| Upside Capture | 621.75 | -113.75 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 8.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.68 | 2.93 | 3.45 | 1.97 | 0.65 | 0.79 |
| Up Beta | 11.77 | 3.05 | 3.59 | 2.61 | -0.77 | 3.76 |
| Down Beta | 5.42 | -5.05 | -5.43 | -1.54 | 0.44 | 3.02 |
| Up Capture | 263% | 601% | 376% | 19% | -37% | -5% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 14 | 22 | 42 | 58 | 58 |
| Down Capture | 71% | 540% | 590% | 327% | 174% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 27 | 39 | 75 | 114 | 114 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SAFX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAFX | -98.9% | 238.2% | -1.18 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 20.4% | 15.8% | 0.98 | 5.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 18.9% | 0.59 | 7.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 50.2% | 27.7% | 1.46 | -3.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 17.8% | 17.6% | 0.85 | -5.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.4% | 16.4% | -0.15 | 1.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -23.7% | 44.2% | -0.49 | 13.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SAFX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAFX | -59.0% | 238.2% | -1.18 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 11.3% | 17.2% | 0.51 | 5.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.8% | 17.0% | 0.54 | 7.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.7% | 17.7% | 0.96 | -3.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.9% | 0.50 | -5.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.0% | 18.8% | 0.07 | 1.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.0% | 56.6% | 0.29 | 13.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SAFX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAFX | -35.9% | 238.2% | -1.18 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 9.9% | 19.2% | 0.44 | 5.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 7.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.3% | 15.8% | 0.70 | -3.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 17.6% | 0.39 | -5.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.7% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 1.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.4% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 13.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
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