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Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX)


Market Price (12/17/2025): $4.44 | Market Cap: $2.0 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology

Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX)


Market Price (12/17/2025): $4.44
Market Cap: $2.0 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -26%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -90%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -124%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -724 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1667%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Precision Medicine. Themes include AI Software Platforms, and Biopharmaceutical R&D.
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -33%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -81%
2   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1016%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1037%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -37%
4   Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 34%
5   Key risks
RXRX key risks include [1] the lack of late-stage clinical validation for its core AI-driven discovery platform and [2] a history of discontinued drug candidates that creates uncertainty about the platform’s ability to perform as expected.
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -26%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Precision Medicine. Themes include AI Software Platforms, and Biopharmaceutical R&D.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -90%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -124%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -724 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1667%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -33%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -81%
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1016%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1037%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -37%
7 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 34%
8 Key risks
RXRX key risks include [1] the lack of late-stage clinical validation for its core AI-driven discovery platform and [2] a history of discontinued drug candidates that creates uncertainty about the platform’s ability to perform as expected.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

RXRX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points highlighting why Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) stock moved by -10.6% between August 31, 2025, and December 17, 2025:

1. Significant Q3 2025 Revenue Miss and Widening Net Loss: Recursion Pharmaceuticals reported third-quarter 2025 revenue of $5.2 million, which substantially missed analyst expectations of $17 million. The company also posted a net loss of $162.3 million for the quarter, an increase from the $95.8 million net loss in the third quarter of 2024. This financial underperformance and increased cash burn raised investor concerns.

2. High Research and Development (R&D) Expenses and Operational Losses: The company continued to incur significant research and development expenses, totaling $121.1 million in the third quarter of 2025, following $128.6 million in the second quarter of 2025. These substantial expenditures contributed to considerable operational losses and a high cash burn rate, signaling a challenging path to profitability.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
RXRX Return-55%28%-31%-38%
Peers Return-44%-39%0%-44%22%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%110%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
RXRX Win Rate12%33%42%33%58% 
Peers Win Rate38%38%50%33%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
RXRX Max Drawdown-71%-41%-42%-43% 
Peers Max Drawdown-51%-56%-42%-50%-29% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SDGR, RLAY, ABCL, CERT, LTRN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/16/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventRXRXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-89.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven806.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to VRTX, ACSB, ALPS, APRI, BBOT


In The Past

Recursion Pharmaceuticals's stock fell -89.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/13/2021. A -89.0% loss requires a 806.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX)

Better Bets than Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to RXRX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.1%-7.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.6%3.6%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.1%-7.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.6%3.6%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Recursion Pharmaceuticals

Peers to compare with:

Financials

RXRXSDGRRLAYABCLCERTLTRNMedian
NameRecursio.Schrodin.Relay Th.AbCeller.Certara Lantern . 
Mkt Price4.2017.948.483.468.663.336.34
Mkt Cap1.91.31.51.01.40.01.4
Rev LTM43257835416039
Op Inc LTM-724-170-327-24726-20-209
FCF LTM-450-3-249-15392-17-85
FCF 3Y Avg-354-104-269-14069-16-122
CFO LTM-441-1-248-105117-17-61
CFO 3Y Avg-339-96-266-7389-16-85

Growth & Margins

RXRXSDGRRLAYABCLCERTLTRNMedian
NameRecursio.Schrodin.Relay Th.AbCeller.Certara Lantern . 
Rev Chg LTM-32.8%32.9%-16.5%7.2%11.5%-7.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg23.2%15.7%448.1%-39.7%8.6%-15.7%
Rev Chg Q-80.9%53.9%-37.6%10.3%-24.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-32.7%8.0%0.0%7.4%2.4%-2.4%
Op Mgn LTM-1,666.6%-66.3%-3,914.4%-699.7%6.3%--699.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-980.6%-89.2%-3,096.7%-661.1%3.1%--661.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-659.5%14.8%191.2%102.7%-0.1%-14.8%
CFO/Rev LTM-1,016.2%-0.4%-2,973.4%-296.0%28.1%--296.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-686.3%-49.1%-2,271.9%-215.8%23.2%--215.8%
FCF/Rev LTM-1,037.0%-1.3%-2,978.3%-433.4%22.0%--433.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-715.3%-53.0%-2,288.8%-389.7%18.1%--389.7%

Valuation

RXRXSDGRRLAYABCLCERTLTRNMedian
NameRecursio.Schrodin.Relay Th.AbCeller.Certara Lantern . 
Mkt Cap1.91.31.51.01.40.01.4
P/S50.25.7107.742.64.7-42.6
P/EBIT-3.1-8.7-2.8-6.160.6-2.4-2.9
P/E-3.0-8.4-3.0-8.8180.2-1.9-3.0
P/CFO-4.9-1,317.3-3.6-14.416.8-2.1-4.3
Total Yield-32.8%-11.9%-33.1%-11.4%0.6%-52.4%-22.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-18.5%-6.6%-27.6%-13.7%3.3%-38.8%-16.1%
D/E0.00.10.00.10.20.00.1
Net D/E-0.3-0.2-0.6-0.20.1-0.3-0.2

Returns

RXRXSDGRRLAYABCLCERTLTRNMedian
NameRecursio.Schrodin.Relay Th.AbCeller.Certara Lantern . 
1M Rtn1.4%1.7%34.8%-6.2%4.0%-1.5%1.6%
3M Rtn-13.2%-6.1%105.3%-27.5%-25.0%-18.8%-16.0%
6M Rtn-13.2%-14.1%177.1%10.9%-18.1%5.7%-3.8%
12M Rtn-43.5%-17.1%75.2%21.0%-25.2%-6.5%-11.8%
3Y Rtn-50.2%-12.7%-50.3%-66.1%-46.4%-42.0%-48.3%
1M Excs Rtn0.5%0.7%33.8%-7.2%3.0%-2.5%0.6%
3M Excs Rtn-13.9%-8.8%104.3%-27.3%-27.8%-17.9%-15.9%
6M Excs Rtn-26.9%-27.7%163.5%-2.8%-31.7%-8.0%-17.4%
12M Excs Rtn-52.2%-27.2%65.0%4.9%-38.4%-20.6%-23.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-124.1%-64.0%-120.8%-139.8%-124.0%-109.5%-122.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil2024202320222021
Single segment45   
Grant revenue 001
Operating revenue 40103
Total4540104


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil2024202320222021
Single segment-350   
Total-350   


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil2024202320222021
Single segment-328   
Total-328   


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity151,875,532
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520254.3%
Average Daily Volume23,432,154
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.48
Basic Shares Quantity446,988,046
Short % of Basic Shares34.0%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/2025-0.8%-5.8%-5.8%
8/5/2025-4.7%-8.8%-20.2%
2/28/2025-2.1%-18.6%-24.3%
11/6/2024-0.6%5.0%14.9%
8/8/20244.2%-1.4%-7.1%
5/9/2024-0.5%10.1%-0.2%
2/27/2024-16.6%-23.3%-34.5%
11/9/2023-7.1%27.5%35.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive6106
# Negative11711
Median Positive6.1%5.7%34.2%
Median Negative-2.1%-15.5%-12.2%
Max Positive12.0%39.8%67.2%
Max Negative-17.7%-23.3%-34.5%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025505202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023508202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021323202210-K 12/31/2021