Certara (CERT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $9.69 | Market Cap: $1.6 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Technology
Certara (CERT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $9.69Market Cap: $1.6 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Technology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -84%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -111% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 61x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 180x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and AI Software Platforms. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.6% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and AI Software Platforms. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -84%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -111% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 61x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 180x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.6% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CERT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Certara (CERT) experienced a notable decline in its stock price during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025. This movement was influenced by several key factors in the market and analyst community.
1. Analyst Downgrade and Price Target Reduction
On November 7, 2025, Barclays significantly cut its price target for Certara from $16 to $14. This downgrade was a major catalyst, leading to a substantial drop in the stock price, specifically around 23.1% from its prior close on that day. This reassessment by a prominent financial institution likely impacted investor confidence in the company's future valuation.
2. Bearish Market Sentiment
Towards the end of 2025, the overall market sentiment for Certara turned bearish. As of November 29, 2025, technical analysis indicators predominantly signaled a downward trend, with 18 bearish signals compared to 8 bullish ones, and the Fear & Greed Index indicated "Fear." This general negative outlook contributed to sustained selling pressure on the stock.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CERT Return | - | -16% | -43% | 9% | -39% | -13% | -73% |
| Peers Return | 19% | 16% | -4% | -24% | 2% | -26% | -24% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CERT Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 50% | 33% | 50% | ||
| Peers Win Rate | 20% | 23% | 23% | 27% | 27% | 49% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CERT Max Drawdown | - | -27% | -63% | -25% | -46% | -25% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -2% | -32% | -33% | -23% | -36% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: OMCL, MDRX, BEAT, CARL, HTFL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CERT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -76.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 324.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 301 days | 148 days |
Compare to OMCL, MDRX, BEAT, CARL, HTFL
In The Past
Certara's stock fell -76.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/4/2021. A -76.4% loss requires a 324.5% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CERT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| 11072025 | CERT | Certara | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -7.4% |
| 10312024 | CERT | Certara | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 30.3% | 14.0% | -11.3% |
| 10312023 | CERT | Certara | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 40.4% | -15.4% | -17.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| 11072025 | CERT | Certara | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -7.4% |
| 10312024 | CERT | Certara | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 30.3% | 14.0% | -11.3% |
| 10312023 | CERT | Certara | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 40.4% | -15.4% | -17.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Certara
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 13.33 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.0 |
| Rev LTM | 277 |
| Op Inc LTM | -20 |
| FCF LTM | 34 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 28 |
| CFO LTM | 50 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 38 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -3.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -3.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.0 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | 29.3 |
| P/E | 33.8 |
| P/CFO | 6.7 |
| Total Yield | -8.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -6.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -1.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -33.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | -59.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -16.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -46.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -128.3% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Provides technology-enabled services and software products to its customers | 354 | ||||
| Services | 220 | 199 | 170 | 140 | |
| Software | 115 | 87 | 73 | 68 | |
| Total | 354 | 336 | 286 | 244 | 209 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Provides technology-enabled services and software products to its customers | -55 | ||||
| Total | -55 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5052025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |