Certara (CERT)
Market Price (6/16/2026): $5.21 | Market Cap: $821.9 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Technology
Certara (CERT)
Market Price (6/16/2026): $5.21Market Cap: $821.9 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Technology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -42% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 7.7% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and AI Software Platforms. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -108%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -146% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 55x Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.1% Key risksCERT key risks include [1] technological disruption from AI-driven competitors, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -42% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 7.7% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and AI Software Platforms. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -108%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -146% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 55x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.1% |
| Key risksCERT key risks include [1] technological disruption from AI-driven competitors, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 6/8/2026
Certara (CERT) stock has lost about 25% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Q4 2025 and Disappointing Q1 2026 Earnings Report a Significant Decline in Profitability.
Certara reported a net loss of $5.9 million in fiscal Q4 2025, a 190% decrease from the net income in fiscal Q4 2024, and a net loss of $8.8 million in fiscal Q1 2026, marking a 285% decrease from the net income in fiscal Q1 2025. While fiscal Q1 2026 revenue of $106.9 million slightly exceeded consensus estimates, adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.09 missed the consensus estimate of $0.11 by 18.18%. This significant drop in profitability and the EPS miss raised investor concerns, leading to a stock decline of 17-19% immediately following the fiscal Q1 2026 earnings announcement. Adjusted EBITDA also decreased by 3% in fiscal Q4 2025 and 9% in fiscal Q1 2026 year-over-year, further highlighting margin compression.
2. Weakened Services Segment Performance and Cautious Overall Revenue Growth Outlook.
Despite a 7% year-over-year growth in software revenue in fiscal Q1 2026, Certara's services revenue experienced a 4% year-over-year decrease in fiscal Q1 2026 and a 1% decrease in fiscal Q4 2025, indicating operational challenges within this segment. The company's full-year 2026 revenue guidance, initially set at 0-4% growth, remained cautious even after updating to reflect the divestiture of its Regulatory and Medical Writing Business, which contributed $13 million to fiscal Q1 2026 revenue. This mixed performance in key business segments and a modest projected overall growth rate contributed to investor apprehension regarding the company's ability to drive strong top-line expansion.
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Certara (CERT) stock has lost about 25% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Q4 2025 and Disappointing Q1 2026 Earnings Report a Significant Decline in Profitability.
Certara reported a net loss of $5.9 million in fiscal Q4 2025, a 190% decrease from the net income in fiscal Q4 2024, and a net loss of $8.8 million in fiscal Q1 2026, marking a 285% decrease from the net income in fiscal Q1 2025. While fiscal Q1 2026 revenue of $106.9 million slightly exceeded consensus estimates, adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.09 missed the consensus estimate of $0.11 by 18.18%. This significant drop in profitability and the EPS miss raised investor concerns, leading to a stock decline of 17-19% immediately following the fiscal Q1 2026 earnings announcement. Adjusted EBITDA also decreased by 3% in fiscal Q4 2025 and 9% in fiscal Q1 2026 year-over-year, further highlighting margin compression.
2. Weakened Services Segment Performance and Cautious Overall Revenue Growth Outlook.
Despite a 7% year-over-year growth in software revenue in fiscal Q1 2026, Certara's services revenue experienced a 4% year-over-year decrease in fiscal Q1 2026 and a 1% decrease in fiscal Q4 2025, indicating operational challenges within this segment. The company's full-year 2026 revenue guidance, initially set at 0-4% growth, remained cautious even after updating to reflect the divestiture of its Regulatory and Medical Writing Business, which contributed $13 million to fiscal Q1 2026 revenue. This mixed performance in key business segments and a modest projected overall growth rate contributed to investor apprehension regarding the company's ability to drive strong top-line expansion.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -26.4% change in CERT stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -27.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.08 | 5.21 | -26.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 419 | 420 | 0.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.7 | 2.0 | -27.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 159 | 158 | 1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -26.4% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CERT | -26.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.3% | 21.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | -4.2% | 11.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -43.1% change in CERT stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -44.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.16 | 5.21 | -43.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 416 | 420 | 1.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.5 | 2.0 | -44.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 160 | 158 | 1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -43.1% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CERT | -43.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.1% | 19.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | -2.2% | 16.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -54.1% change in CERT stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -57.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.36 | 5.21 | -54.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 394 | 420 | 6.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 4.6 | 2.0 | -57.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 161 | 158 | 2.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -54.1% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CERT | -54.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 29.5% | 24.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 17.3% | 23.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -74.9% change in CERT stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -79.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 20.78 | 5.21 | -74.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 344 | 420 | 21.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 9.5 | 2.0 | -79.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 158 | 158 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -74.9% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CERT | -74.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 87.7% | 30.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | 25.7% | 28.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CERT Return | -16% | -43% | 9% | -39% | -17% | -41% | -85% |
| Peers Return | 9% | -14% | -25% | 3% | -4% | -21% | -44% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CERT Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 50% | 33% | 42% | 17% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 44% | 38% | 46% | 47% | 45% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CERT Max Drawdown | -42% | -63% | -51% | -51% | -45% | -56% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -56% | -54% | -36% | -47% | -38% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: OMCL, MDRX, BEAT, VEEV, SOLV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/15/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CERT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -35.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 6 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -14.8% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.4% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 168 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -36.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 128 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -11.3% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 16 days | 31 days |
In The Past
Certara's stock fell -35.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 55.0% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | CERT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -35.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 6 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -36.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 128 days | 24 days |
In The Past
Certara's stock fell -35.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 55.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Certara (CERT)
Certara, Inc. provides software products and technology-enabled services to customers for biosimulation in drug discovery, preclinical and clinical research, regulatory submissions, and market access. It offers medicines to patients using biosimulation software, technology, and services to transform drug discovery and development. The company also provides related technology-enabled services to guide its customers' new drugs through the regulatory submission process and into the market. Its technology-enabled services include mechanistic biosimulation, empirical biosimulation, drug development and regulatory strategy, clinical pharmacology, model-based meta-analysis, regulatory writing and medical communications, regulatory operations, and market access. Further, company offers software, comprising mechanistic biosimulation platform, empirical PK/PD biosimulation platform, data standardization and compliance software, scientific informatics platform, clinical outcomes databases for biosimulation, authoring and management of regulatory submissions platform, and market access communication platform. The company serves biopharmaceutical companies, and academic and government institutions. It has operations in the United States, Canada, Spain, Luxembourg, Portugal, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Denmark, Switzerland, Italy, Poland, Japan, the Philippines, India, Australia, and China. Certara Inc. was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Princeton, New Jersey.
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- Certara is like the **Ansys for drug development**.
- Certara is like the **MathWorks (MATLAB/Simulink) for life sciences R&D**.
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- Biosimulation Services: Provides expert analysis and consulting using mechanistic and empirical biosimulation techniques to inform drug discovery and development.
- Drug Development & Clinical Services: Offers strategic guidance, clinical pharmacology expertise, and model-based meta-analysis to optimize drug development pathways.
- Regulatory & Market Access Services: Assists with regulatory writing, operations, and market access strategies to facilitate successful drug submissions and commercialization.
- Mechanistic Biosimulation Platform: Software for detailed modeling of biological systems in drug discovery and development.
- Empirical PK/PD Biosimulation Platform: Software for analyzing and predicting drug pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics.
- Data Standardization and Compliance Software: Tools for ensuring data quality, consistency, and regulatory adherence.
- Scientific Informatics Platform: Software designed to manage and analyze complex scientific data and workflows.
- Clinical Outcomes Databases for Biosimulation: Databases providing real-world clinical data to support biosimulation models.
- Authoring and Management of Regulatory Submissions Platform: Software to streamline the creation and management of regulatory documents.
- Market Access Communication Platform: Tools to support the development and dissemination of market access communications.
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Major Customers of Certara (CERT)
Certara, Inc. primarily sells its software products and technology-enabled services to other companies and institutions, not individuals.
Based on the provided company description, its major customers fall into the following categories:
- Biopharmaceutical companies: These are companies involved in the research, development, and manufacturing of drugs. While many are public, specific names of Certara's customer biopharmaceutical companies are not provided in the background information.
- Academic institutions: This includes universities, research centers, and other educational bodies.
- Government institutions: This includes government agencies and research organizations.
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Jon Resnick, Chief Executive Officer
Jon Resnick was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Certara effective January 1, 2026. Prior to joining Certara, he spent over two decades at IQVIA, where he held several senior leadership roles, including President of the U.S. & Canada regional business and President of Real World Solutions. Before his time at IQVIA, he worked for the U.S. Senate Committee on Finance, advising on healthcare policy. Mr. Resnick holds an MBA from Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management.
Jon Resnick was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Certara effective January 1, 2026. Prior to joining Certara, he spent over two decades at IQVIA, where he held several senior leadership roles, including President of the U.S. & Canada regional business and President of Real World Solutions. Before his time at IQVIA, he worked for the U.S. Senate Committee on Finance, advising on healthcare policy. Mr. Resnick holds an MBA from Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management.
John E. Gallagher III, Chief Financial Officer
John E. Gallagher III has served as Certara's Chief Financial Officer since April 2023. Previously, he was the Chief Financial Officer of Cue Health, a publicly traded healthcare technology company, from March 2021 to March 2023. Mr. Gallagher spent nine years at Becton, Dickinson & Co. (BD), a multinational medical technology company, where he held various senior finance leadership positions including CFO of its Medical Segment, Chief Accounting Officer, Corporate Treasurer, and FP&A Leader. His early career included roles at NBCUniversal, General Electric, and Ford Motor Company.
John E. Gallagher III has served as Certara's Chief Financial Officer since April 2023. Previously, he was the Chief Financial Officer of Cue Health, a publicly traded healthcare technology company, from March 2021 to March 2023. Mr. Gallagher spent nine years at Becton, Dickinson & Co. (BD), a multinational medical technology company, where he held various senior finance leadership positions including CFO of its Medical Segment, Chief Accounting Officer, Corporate Treasurer, and FP&A Leader. His early career included roles at NBCUniversal, General Electric, and Ford Motor Company.
Leif E. Pedersen, President, Chief Commercial Officer
Leif E. Pedersen is a software industry executive with over 35 years of experience in delivering software solutions across various industries. Before joining Certara, he was a senior operating partner at SymphonyAI, where he was responsible for portfolio companies in life sciences, healthcare, industrial, and defense. Mr. Pedersen previously served as Chief Executive Officer of BIOVIA at Dassault Systèmes, a scientific software brand. He has also held executive leadership positions at Innovative Interfaces, Accelrys Software Inc., Siemens Corporation, Vignette Corporation, Novell Inc., CA Technologies, and Oracle Corporation.
Leif E. Pedersen is a software industry executive with over 35 years of experience in delivering software solutions across various industries. Before joining Certara, he was a senior operating partner at SymphonyAI, where he was responsible for portfolio companies in life sciences, healthcare, industrial, and defense. Mr. Pedersen previously served as Chief Executive Officer of BIOVIA at Dassault Systèmes, a scientific software brand. He has also held executive leadership positions at Innovative Interfaces, Accelrys Software Inc., Siemens Corporation, Vignette Corporation, Novell Inc., CA Technologies, and Oracle Corporation.
Chris Bouton, Chief Technology Officer
Dr. Christopher Bouton is the Chief Technology Officer at Certara. He was the Founder & CEO of Vyasa Analytics, an AI analytics company acquired by Certara in 2022 or 2023. Dr. Bouton also founded Entagen, a software company providing life sciences data integration products, which was acquired by Thomson Reuters in 2013. His career in drug development began as a computational biologist at LION Bioscience Research Inc. and Aveo Pharmaceuticals, and later as Head of Integrative Data Mining for Pfizer. He holds a Ph.D. in Molecular Neurobiology from Johns Hopkins University.
Dr. Christopher Bouton is the Chief Technology Officer at Certara. He was the Founder & CEO of Vyasa Analytics, an AI analytics company acquired by Certara in 2022 or 2023. Dr. Bouton also founded Entagen, a software company providing life sciences data integration products, which was acquired by Thomson Reuters in 2013. His career in drug development began as a computational biologist at LION Bioscience Research Inc. and Aveo Pharmaceuticals, and later as Head of Integrative Data Mining for Pfizer. He holds a Ph.D. in Molecular Neurobiology from Johns Hopkins University.
Adrian McKemey, President, Certara Drug Development Solutions
Dr. Adrian McKemey serves as President of Drug Development Solutions at Certara, a role he assumed effective March 3, 2025. He brings over 25 years of experience in research and development, with a focus on business transformation, portfolio management, and R&D strategies. Prior to Certara, he held leadership roles as Head of Enterprise Transformation at IQVIA and Senior Vice President and Head of R&D Strategy Solutions at Quintiles. He also worked as a Principal in the Life Sciences practice at Boston Consulting Group (BCG). Dr. McKemey earned a Ph.D. in High Energy Nuclear Particle Physics from the University of London.
Dr. Adrian McKemey serves as President of Drug Development Solutions at Certara, a role he assumed effective March 3, 2025. He brings over 25 years of experience in research and development, with a focus on business transformation, portfolio management, and R&D strategies. Prior to Certara, he held leadership roles as Head of Enterprise Transformation at IQVIA and Senior Vice President and Head of R&D Strategy Solutions at Quintiles. He also worked as a Principal in the Life Sciences practice at Boston Consulting Group (BCG). Dr. McKemey earned a Ph.D. in High Energy Nuclear Particle Physics from the University of London.
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Certara Inc. (CERT) faces several key risks to its business, primarily stemming from the dynamic nature of the biopharmaceutical industry and its reliance on technological advancement and customer adoption.
- Intense Competition and Market Fragmentation: Certara operates in a highly competitive and fragmented market, encountering challenges from both established companies and emerging players. The ongoing consolidation within the biopharmaceutical industry could further reduce the pool of potential customers, thereby intensifying the competition for market share. To maintain its position, Certara must continuously innovate and differentiate its offerings.
- Technological and Regulatory Changes: The rapid pace of technological advancements, particularly in areas such as artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning, poses a significant risk to Certara's business. The company must continually adapt to these evolving technologies to remain competitive. Furthermore, shifts in government regulations and policies within the highly regulated biopharmaceutical industry, including those from agencies like the FDA, could impact the demand for Certara's biosimulation software and services, as regulatory agencies play a crucial role in endorsing and adopting biosimulation methodologies for drug approval processes.
- R&D Spending Pressures and Customer Adoption: Certara's growth is closely tied to the research and development (R&D) budgets of pharmaceutical and biotech companies. Reductions in R&D spending by customers, delays in the drug discovery and development process, or slower-than-expected adoption of Certara's new technologies can directly reduce demand for its products and services. Softness in software bookings, particularly from larger Tier 1 customers, has also been identified as a concern that could impact the company's revenue.
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The emergence of fully integrated, AI-driven drug discovery and development platforms.
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Certara, Inc. (symbol: CERT) operates within substantial addressable markets for its biosimulation software, technology, and services, encompassing drug discovery, preclinical and clinical research, regulatory submissions, and market access.
Certara estimates its total addressable market (TAM) to be approximately $12 billion globally, with an anticipated compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 9% and 17%. This global market is segmented as follows:
- Biosimulation: $2.8 billion
- Regulatory: $7.1 billion
- Market Access: $1.8 billion
Beyond Certara's specific estimates, the broader global biosimulation market, which is a core area for Certara, was estimated at around $3.91 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $10.00 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 17.0% from 2025 to 2030. Other estimates place the global biosimulation market at approximately $4.24 billion in 2024, expected to reach $9.18 billion by 2029 with a CAGR of 16.7% from 2024 to 2029. The North American region held the largest share of this market, accounting for 49.90% in 2024.
The global drug discovery informatics market, another relevant area for Certara, was valued at an estimated $3.65 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to $7.03 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 11.6% from 2025 to 2030. North America also led this market, holding a 40.8% revenue share in 2024.
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Certara, Inc. (CERT) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market trends:
- Integration and Expansion of AI-Enabled Biosimulation and Software Solutions: Certara is heavily investing in and integrating artificial intelligence (AI) across its platforms. This includes the launch of AI-enabled software such as Certara IQ for quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) and CoAuthor for regulatory writing, as well as the ongoing implementation of Vyasa AI technology. This strategic focus aims to leverage AI to enhance drug discovery and development processes.
- Growth in Model-Informed Drug Development (MIDD) and Biosimulation Offerings: The company is strategically positioned to capitalize on the industry's shift from traditional animal testing to advanced biosimulation techniques. Certara is making significant investments in MIDD to fuel future growth, with its biosimulation software, including platforms like Simcyp and Phoenix, continuing to be a core driver.
- Enhanced Operational Execution, Strategic Focus, and Customer Engagement: Under its new leadership, Certara is prioritizing sharper operational execution, aligning investments more effectively, and deepening customer engagement. These strategic priorities are aimed at invigorating overall growth by improving efficiency, delivery, and pricing strategies.
- Increase in Technology-Driven Services and Introduction of New Software Products: Certara expects revenue growth to be driven by its technology-driven services, which saw a significant increase in bookings (17%) in Q4 2025. Additionally, the company's software segment continues to be a strong contributor, with 10% growth in Q4 2025, primarily from MIDD software and Pinnacle 21. Certara plans to introduce new software products and enhance its existing platforms in the coming years.
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Share Repurchases
- Certara's Board of Directors authorized a stock repurchase program of up to $100 million on April 14, 2025.
- During 2025, Certara repurchased approximately 3.3 million shares for $43 million.
- From April 11, 2025, to June 30, 2025, the company repurchased 1,793,279 shares totaling $23.43 million under its buyback program.
Outbound Investments
- Certara acquired ChemAxon in July 2024 for an undisclosed amount, aiming to enhance its biosimulation and scientific informatics capabilities.
- In December 2023, Certara acquired Applied BioMath for an undisclosed sum.
- Certara made two acquisitions in 2023 and two in 2021, notably including Pinnacle 21 in 2021 to bolster its regulatory compliance software.
Capital Expenditures
- Certara's capital expenditures were reported as $9.52 million in the latest available annual figures.
- Projected capital expenditures are $17 million for 2025 and $18 million for 2026, each estimated at approximately 4% of revenue.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures, including capitalized software development costs, is on enhancing software platforms, integrating AI, and improving prediction accuracy in drug discovery and development.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Certara Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Would You Still Hold Certara Stock If It Fell 30%? | 11/08/2025 | |
| Better Bet Than CERT Stock: Pay Less Than Certara To Get More From BTSG | 08/22/2025 | |
| Certara (CERT) Debt Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Certara (CERT) EBITDA Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Certara (CERT) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Certara (CERT) Net Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Certara (CERT) Tax Expense Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Certara (CERT) Operating Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Certara (CERT) Revenue Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | 05/16/2026 |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 22.60 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.3 |
| Rev LTM | 907 |
| Op Inc LTM | 21 |
| FCF LTM | 73 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 94 |
| CFO LTM | 133 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 133 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 0.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 12.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 101.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 2.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.3 |
| P/S | 1.6 |
| P/Op Inc | 25.9 |
| P/EBIT | 17.2 |
| P/E | 3.9 |
| P/CFO | 10.3 |
| Total Yield | -0.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.7% |
| 6M Rtn | -17.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -19.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | -49.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -27.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -44.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -126.9% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Provides technology-enabled services and software products to its customers | 419 | 385 | 354 | ||
| Services | 220 | 199 | |||
| Software | 115 | 87 | |||
| Total | 419 | 385 | 354 | 336 | 286 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Provides technology-enabled services and software products to its customers | -2 | -12 | -55 |
| Total | -2 | -12 | -55 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $5.21 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/11/2020 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -61.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $5.61 | $8.37 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -7.1% | -37.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 63.5% | 58.6% |
| Downside Capture | 168.34 | 171.71 |
| Upside Capture | 23.32 | 35.03 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 21.5% | 25.0% |
CERT Betas & Captures as of 5/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.35 | 0.69 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 1.20 | 1.06 |
| Up Beta | 1.44 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.24 | 1.18 | 1.17 |
| Down Beta | 3.44 | 2.31 | 1.10 | 0.96 | 1.55 | 0.67 |
| Up Capture | -89% | 44% | 37% | 17% | 32% | 50% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 24 | 31 | 56 | 118 | 358 |
| Down Capture | -88% | 153% | 167% | 152% | 145% | 110% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 31 | 67 | 128 | 385 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CERT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CERT | -51.2% | 58.4% | -1.00 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 13.8% | 15.0% | 0.65 | 23.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.6% | 12.4% | 1.62 | 24.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 27.1% | 27.5% | 0.86 | 8.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 28.6% | 19.1% | 1.19 | -4.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.2% | 13.5% | 0.60 | 14.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -40.1% | 42.2% | -1.10 | 21.1% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CERT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CERT | -26.6% | 54.9% | -0.35 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 6.3% | 14.8% | 0.24 | 33.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.9% | 17.1% | 0.63 | 38.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 18.2% | 0.78 | 4.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.9% | 19.4% | 0.30 | 0.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.5% | 18.8% | 0.03 | 33.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.7% | 54.4% | 0.44 | 21.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CERT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CERT | -17.6% | 56.2% | -0.41 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.6% | 16.6% | 0.47 | 31.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 36.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.8% | 16.1% | 0.66 | 4.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.4% | 18.0% | 0.28 | -0.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 31.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 59.8% | 66.8% | 1.00 | 19.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/12/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/11/2026 | -18.7% | -29.0% | -17.9% |
| 2/26/2026 | 3.2% | 11.5% | -6.8% |
| 11/6/2025 | -23.1% | -25.4% | -18.6% |
| 8/6/2025 | 18.2% | 17.2% | 10.4% |
| 5/5/2025 | -11.0% | -5.1% | -6.5% |
| 2/26/2025 | 0.6% | -3.4% | -17.9% |
| 11/6/2024 | 0.7% | -1.8% | -0.5% |
| 5/7/2024 | -7.4% | -7.0% | -2.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 5 | 5 |
| # Negative | 9 | 13 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 2.5% | 15.0% | 29.1% |
| Median Negative | -11.0% | -11.5% | -15.5% |
| Max Positive | 18.2% | 17.2% | 37.2% |
| Max Negative | -23.1% | -29.0% | -33.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/11/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 5/31/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 395.00 Mil | 400.00 Mil | 405.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 0.0% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.0% for 2026 |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA margin | 30.0% | 31.0% | 32.0% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 31.0% for 2026 |
| 2026 Adjusted diluted earnings per share | 0.35 | 0.38 | 0.41 | -17.4% | Lowered | Guidance: 0.46 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Fully diluted shares | 157.00 Mil | 158.00 Mil | 159.00 Mil | -1.9% | Lowered | Guidance: 161.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 0.0% | 2.0% | 4.0% | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 30.0% | 31.0% | 32.0% | -3.1% | -1.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 32.0% for 2025 |
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | 0.44 | 0.46 | 0.48 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.46 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Fully Diluted Shares | 160.00 Mil | 161.00 Mil | 162.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 161.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Industry Resources
| Health Care Resources |
| U.S. National Library of Medicine |
| ClinicalTrials.gov |
| Modern Healthcare |
| Healthcare Dive |
| Fierce Healthcare |
| Health Affairs |
| Health Data Management |
| FDA Tracker |
| Health Care Technology Resources |
| Healthcare IT News |
| MobiHealthNews |
| HealthTech Magazine |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 6/15/2026