Tearsheet

Certara (CERT)


Market Price (2/16/2026): $6.625 | Market Cap: $1.1 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Technology

Certara (CERT)


Market Price (2/16/2026): $6.625
Market Cap: $1.1 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Health Care Technology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -98%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -131%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 33x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 98x
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -47%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.92, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2%
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 8.6%
  Key risks
CERT key risks include [1] technological disruption from AI-driven competitors, Show more.
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and AI Software Platforms.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -47%
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 8.6%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and AI Software Platforms.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -98%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -131%
5 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 11.92, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 33x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 98x
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2%
8 Key risks
CERT key risks include [1] technological disruption from AI-driven competitors, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Certara (CERT) stock has lost about 45% since 10/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Disappointing Q3 2025 Earnings and Narrowed Guidance: Certara's stock experienced a significant drop following its third-quarter 2025 earnings report on November 6, 2025. Although the company slightly exceeded analyst expectations for earnings per share and revenue, the market reacted negatively to a reported slowdown in core service bookings, which saw only 1% year-over-year growth for Tier 1 services, and a narrowed full-year revenue guidance. This led to an approximately 23% decline in the stock's valuation in the weeks immediately after the announcement.

2. Continued Weakness in Service Bookings and Subsequent Guidance Concerns: Following the Q3 report, concerns persisted regarding Certara's service bookings. An investor letter from the Meridian Growth Fund in the fourth quarter of 2025 specifically cited weaker-than-expected Q4 2025 service bookings and a modest cut in guidance, further dampening near-term earnings prospects and contributing to the stock's continued decline.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -43.1% change in CERT stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -58.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)103120252152026Change
Stock Price ($)11.636.62-43.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)4064162.4%
Net Income Margin (%)2.0%2.6%33.1%
P/E Multiple234.597.6-58.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1611600.3%
Cumulative Contribution-43.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 2/15/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CERT-43.1% 
Market (SPY)-0.0%22.1%
Sector (XLV)9.3%21.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The -32.7% change in CERT stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -36.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)73120252152026Change
Stock Price ($)9.846.62-32.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)3944165.3%
P/S Multiple4.02.6-36.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1611600.4%
Cumulative Contribution-32.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2025 to 2/15/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CERT-32.7% 
Market (SPY)8.2%28.0%
Sector (XLV)21.4%24.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The -53.5% change in CERT stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -58.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)13120252152026Change
Stock Price ($)14.236.62-53.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)37341611.5%
P/S Multiple6.12.6-58.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1611600.1%
Cumulative Contribution-53.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2025 to 2/15/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CERT-53.5% 
Market (SPY)14.3%29.4%
Sector (XLV)8.8%30.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The -65.9% change in CERT stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -72.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)13120232152026Change
Stock Price ($)19.406.62-65.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)32441628.1%
P/S Multiple9.42.6-72.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)157160-2.0%
Cumulative Contribution-65.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2023 to 2/15/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CERT-65.9% 
Market (SPY)74.0%34.3%
Sector (XLV)23.7%31.9%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
CERT Return-16%-43%9%-39%-17%-24%-80%
Peers Return9%-14%-25%3%-4%-19%-43%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%-0%82%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CERT Win Rate58%33%50%33%42%0% 
Peers Win Rate44%38%46%47%45%30% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CERT Max Drawdown-27%-63%-25%-46%-25%-24% 
Peers Max Drawdown-15%-50%-42%-31%-37%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-1% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: OMCL, MDRX, BEAT, VEEV, SOLV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/13/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCERTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-76.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven324.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-16.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven19.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven301 days148 days

Compare to OMCL, MDRX, BEAT, VEEV, SOLV

In The Past

Certara's stock fell -76.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/4/2021. A -76.4% loss requires a 324.5% gain to breakeven.

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About Certara (CERT)

Certara, Inc. provides software products and technology-enabled services to customers for biosimulation in drug discovery, preclinical and clinical research, regulatory submissions, and market access. It offers medicines to patients using biosimulation software, technology, and services to transform drug discovery and development. The company also provides related technology-enabled services to guide its customers' new drugs through the regulatory submission process and into the market. Its technology-enabled services include mechanistic biosimulation, empirical biosimulation, drug development and regulatory strategy, clinical pharmacology, model-based meta-analysis, regulatory writing and medical communications, regulatory operations, and market access. Further, company offers software, comprising mechanistic biosimulation platform, empirical PK/PD biosimulation platform, data standardization and compliance software, scientific informatics platform, clinical outcomes databases for biosimulation, authoring and management of regulatory submissions platform, and market access communication platform. The company serves biopharmaceutical companies, and academic and government institutions. It has operations in the United States, Canada, Spain, Luxembourg, Portugal, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Denmark, Switzerland, Italy, Poland, Japan, the Philippines, India, Australia, and China. Certara Inc. was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Princeton, New Jersey.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Certara:

  • Like Ansys for drug development, providing simulation software to optimize pharmaceutical research and development.
  • Like Dassault Systèmes for life sciences R&D, offering specialized software and services to accelerate drug discovery.
  • Like the NVIDIA of pharmaceutical R&D, providing foundational biosimulation software and data science tools to power drug development.

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  • Biosimulation Software: Provides a comprehensive suite of advanced software tools used to model and simulate drug behavior in biological systems, optimizing drug discovery and development processes.
  • Strategic Consulting & Services: Offers expert scientific and regulatory consulting services across the entire drug development lifecycle, leveraging biosimulation, data, and technology to accelerate drug approval and market access.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Certara (NASDAQ: CERT) sells primarily to other companies rather than individuals. Its business model focuses on providing biosimulation software, technology, and services to accelerate drug development processes.

According to Certara's Annual Reports on Form 10-K filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (e.g., for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2023), no single customer accounted for 10% or more of its total revenue for the past several fiscal years. This indicates a highly diversified customer base, and as such, specific "major customers" (in terms of revenue concentration) are not individually identified by name in public disclosures.

Therefore, while specific public company names that represent "major customers" by revenue concentration cannot be listed from publicly available information, Certara serves a broad range of entities within the life sciences industry. Its major customer categories include:

  • Pharmaceutical Companies: Global biopharmaceutical companies that utilize Certara's biosimulation software, pharmacometrics services, and regulatory science solutions for drug discovery, development, clinical trials, and regulatory submissions.
  • Biotechnology Companies: Emerging and established biotech firms that leverage Certara's platforms to optimize their research and development pipelines and bring new therapies to market more efficiently.
  • Contract Research Organizations (CROs): Companies that provide outsourced research services to pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries, often employing Certara's tools for study design, data analysis, and regulatory affairs support for their clients.

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William F. Feehery, Chief Executive Officer

Dr. Feehery joined Certara as CEO in June 2019. Before Certara, he served as President of DuPont Industrial Biosciences from 2013, a $2.2 billion global biotechnology business that he led to significant growth and profitability. He joined DuPont in 2002, holding various management roles in high-growth businesses, and also has prior experience in venture capital and as a consultant for the Boston Consulting Group. He holds a Ph.D. in chemical engineering and an MBA from MIT and serves as a board member for West Pharmaceutical Services.

John E. Gallagher III, Chief Financial Officer

Mr. Gallagher has served as Certara's Chief Financial Officer since April 2023. Previously, he was CFO of Cue Health, a publicly traded healthcare technology company, from March 2021 to March 2023. Prior to Cue Health, Mr. Gallagher spent nine years at Becton, Dickinson & Co. (BD), where his roles included Senior Vice President, CFO of its Medical Segment and Treasurer, Corporate Treasurer, and Senior Vice President, Controller and Chief Accounting Officer. His extensive background also includes financial leadership positions at NBC Universal, General Electric Company, and Ford Motor Company.

Leif E. Pedersen, President, Chief Commercial Officer

Mr. Pedersen is a seasoned software industry executive with over 35 years of experience in delivering software solutions across various industries. Prior to Certara, he was Senior Operating Partner at SymphonyAI, overseeing portfolio companies in life sciences, healthcare, industrial, and defense. He also served as Chief Executive Officer of BIOVIA at Dassault Systèmes and has held executive leadership roles at companies such as Innovative Interfaces, Accelrys Software, Siemens Corporation, Vignette Corporation, Novell Inc., CA Technologies, and Oracle Corporation.

Patrick F. Smith, President, Certara Drug Development Solutions

Dr. Smith brings over 20 years of global drug development experience to Certara, where he leads a global team of drug development scientists and regulatory strategy. He was a co-founder of d3 Medicine, which was acquired by Certara in 2016. Before d3 Medicine, he served as the U.S. Clinical Pharmacology Lead at Roche for more than five years and as an Associate Professor at the University at Buffalo School of Pharmacy and Roswell Park Cancer Institute.

Robert Aspbury, President, Certara Predictive Technologies

Dr. Aspbury is the President of Certara's Predictive Technologies. Before this role, he was the Chief Operating Officer of Simcyp. He joined Certara with over 17 years of commercial and scientific leadership experience from Covance, where he held several positions including Global Finance Director for Clinical Pharmacology Services, Managing Director, Vice President, Europe, and Vice President and General Manager, Global. His most recent role at Covance was Vice President of Covance Strategic Solutions, Biosimilars. Dr. Aspbury holds a doctorate in biochemistry from the University of Liverpool and is a chartered accountant.

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Key Risks to Certara (CERT)

Certara Inc. (NASDAQ: CERT) faces several significant risks that could impact its business performance. The most prominent challenges include intense competition coupled with rapid technological advancements, potential shifts in regulatory acceptance of its core methodologies, and a notable concentration of revenue in specific geographic regions.
  1. Intense Competition and Rapid Technological Advancements: Certara operates in a highly competitive and rapidly evolving environment, facing challenges from existing biosimulation software and service providers, as well as new entrants, particularly those leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) technologies. This competitive landscape requires Certara to continuously innovate to maintain market share and its competitive edge. The potential for technological disruption in the life sciences tools sector, especially from AI and ML, poses a significant threat to its business model.
  2. Regulatory Changes Affecting Biosimulation Acceptance: The success of Certara's business model is heavily dependent on the ongoing regulatory acceptance of biosimulation methodologies in drug development. Any reversal or slowdown in regulatory support, such as changes in policies by the FDA or other regulatory bodies, could significantly diminish the demand for Certara's products and services, impacting both its software and services segments.
  3. Geographic Revenue Concentration: Certara's significant reliance on the Americas as its primary revenue-generating market presents a material risk. This concentration exposes the company to potential adverse impacts from regional economic fluctuations or specific market downturns within that geographical area, limiting its financial stability and potential for broader global expansion.

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Certara (NASDAQ: CERT) operates primarily in the Model-Informed Drug Development (MIDD) and biosimulation markets, offering a suite of software and technology-enabled services to accelerate drug discovery and development.

The addressable market for Model-Informed Drug Development (MIDD), which encompasses the broader drug discovery and development niche, was estimated to be $24 billion in 2024 and is projected to exceed $60 billion by 2033. This market size is understood to be global given the context of drug development.

More specifically, the global biosimulation market, a core area for Certara's products and services, was valued at approximately $3.91 billion in 2024 and is forecast to grow to $10.00 billion by 2030, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.0% from 2025 to 2030. In terms of regional contribution, North America held the largest share of the biosimulation market, accounting for 49.90% of the revenue in 2024.

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Certara (NASDAQ: CERT) is positioned for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several strategic initiatives and market tailwinds. Here are 3-5 expected drivers of Certara's future revenue growth:
  • Growth in Core Biosimulation Software: Certara's biosimulation software, particularly its Simcyp Simulator, is a significant revenue driver. The software segment has shown robust growth, with a 22% reported increase and 6% organic growth in Q3 2025. This growth is fueled by global regulatory adoption and the increasing integration of biosimulation in drug development processes.
  • Expansion of Biosimulation and Quantitative Systems Pharmacology (QSP) Services: Certara's services segment, including its specialized biosimulation and QSP offerings, is a key growth area. Despite some cautious spending from Tier 1 customers impacting services bookings in Q3 2025, overall services revenue has continued to grow. The company is actively investing in its commercial and R&D teams to capitalize on the rising interest in biosimulation and to advance solutions for earlier-stage drug development.
  • Launch of New Products and Continued Innovation: Certara is committed to innovation, demonstrated by a 24% increase in R&D spending year-over-year. Recent product launches such as Pinnacle 21 Enterprise, Phoenix Cloud, CertaraIQ, and new AI-embedded products are expected to contribute to revenue. The introduction of the "Non-Animal Navigator" solution, designed to aid drug developers in adapting to the FDA's phaseout of animal testing, has also garnered significant customer interest.
  • Strategic Acquisitions: Acquisitions play a role in Certara's growth strategy. The recent acquisition of Chemaxon has positively impacted revenue, contributing $5.6 million in Q3 2025 and projected to add $23 million to $25 million in software revenue for the full year 2025. The integration of acquired entities is expected to further enhance Certara's offerings and market reach.
  • Increasing Adoption of Biosimulation by Pharmaceutical Companies and Regulatory Agencies: The broader trend of increased reliance on biosimulation in the pharmaceutical industry and its widespread adoption by regulatory bodies globally are significant tailwinds. Certara's technology platform is utilized by over 2,400 companies and 23 global regulatory agencies, indicating its critical role in optimizing clinical trials and accelerating regulatory approvals. The European Medicines Agency's formal qualification of Certara's Simcyp Simulator further strengthens its market position and drives demand.

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Share Repurchases

  • Certara's Board of Directors authorized a $100 million share repurchase program in April 2025.
  • The company repurchased approximately $41 million of its stock during 2025.
  • In 2025, Certara executed $38.7 million in share repurchases, increasing its treasury stock to 4,477,064 shares.

Share Issuance

  • Certara's common stock began trading on The Nasdaq Global Select Market on December 11, 2020.
  • As of December 10, 2024, Certara had 160,987,731 shares of common stock outstanding.
  • As of November 1, 2025, the registrant had 159,273,367 shares of common stock outstanding.

Outbound Investments

  • Certara used $91.3 million, net of cash acquired, for business acquisitions in 2024.
  • In 2023, the company utilized $64.2 million, net of cash acquired, for business acquisitions.
  • Certara completed the acquisition of Chemaxon in Q3 2025.

Capital Expenditures

  • Capital expenditures were approximately $1.6 million in 2024 and $1.8 million in 2023.
  • Capitalized software development costs, which represent a significant investment for the company, amounted to $19.4 million in 2024 and $13.5 million in 2023.
  • Projected capital expenditures are $17 million for 2025, $19 million for 2026, and $21 million for 2027, representing approximately 4% of revenue in each year.

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Unique Key

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CERTOMCLMDRXBEATVEEVSOLVMedian
NameCertara Omnicell Veradigm HeartBeamVeeva Sy.Solventum 
Mkt Price6.6236.50-1.33174.1175.5536.50
Mkt Cap1.11.70.50.028.613.21.4
Rev LTM4161,17858803,0808,402883
Op Inc LTM2617-20-2185967422
FCF LTM929483-151,3785087
FCF 3Y Avg69126-79-141,12491797
CFO LTM117153116-151,378493135
CFO 3Y Avg89183-22-141,1241,273136

Growth & Margins

CERTOMCLMDRXBEATVEEVSOLVMedian
NameCertara Omnicell Veradigm HeartBeamVeeva Sy.Solventum 
Rev Chg LTM11.5%10.7%1.8%-16.0%2.3%10.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg8.6%-3.0%-20.1%-14.1%-2.8%
Rev Chg Q10.3%10.0%-9.7%-16.0%0.7%10.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.4%2.5%-2.5%-3.8%0.2%2.4%
Op Mgn LTM6.3%1.5%-3.3%-27.9%8.0%6.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.1%-2.0%4.4%-23.2%14.8%4.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%0.1%-13.3%-1.0%-1.2%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM28.1%13.0%19.7%-44.7%5.9%19.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg23.2%16.0%-4.1%-41.8%15.5%16.0%
FCF/Rev LTM22.0%8.0%14.2%-44.7%0.6%14.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg18.1%11.0%-14.2%-41.8%11.2%11.2%

Valuation

CERTOMCLMDRXBEATVEEVSOLVMedian
NameCertara Omnicell Veradigm HeartBeamVeeva Sy.Solventum 
Mkt Cap1.11.70.50.028.613.21.4
P/S2.61.40.9-9.31.61.6
P/EBIT32.897.0-9.2-2.233.36.419.6
P/E97.683.4-6.1-2.233.28.620.9
P/CFO9.110.84.6-3.020.726.710.0
Total Yield1.0%1.2%-16.3%-45.1%3.0%11.6%1.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.8%6.7%-1.4%-20.0%3.3%-3.3%
D/E0.30.10.40.00.00.40.2
Net D/E0.10.0-0.4-0.0-0.20.3-0.0

Returns

CERTOMCLMDRXBEATVEEVSOLVMedian
NameCertara Omnicell Veradigm HeartBeamVeeva Sy.Solventum 
1M Rtn-30.4%-27.8%3.2%-36.1%-21.6%-4.9%-24.7%
3M Rtn-20.5%3.9%2.1%-14.7%-40.6%-0.1%-7.4%
6M Rtn-39.9%15.2%6.5%29.1%-38.0%5.8%6.2%
12M Rtn-53.3%-7.9%-8.4%-37.6%-25.6%1.8%-17.0%
3Y Rtn-65.3%-32.9%-72.0%-65.0%0.6%9.3%-49.0%
1M Excs Rtn-27.7%-26.7%4.5%-40.6%-19.1%-4.3%-22.9%
3M Excs Rtn-19.8%-0.8%-0.2%-20.1%-41.2%2.5%-10.3%
6M Excs Rtn-45.3%10.3%0.8%14.1%-42.4%-2.5%-0.8%
12M Excs Rtn-64.5%-22.8%-18.7%-53.6%-38.3%-10.4%-30.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-130.8%-102.5%-137.8%-131.7%-67.2%-56.7%-116.6%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Provides technology-enabled services and software products to its customers354    
Services 220199170140
Software 115877368
Total354336286244209


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Provides technology-enabled services and software products to its customers-55    
Total-55    


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$6.62 
Market Cap ($ Bil)1.1 
First Trading Date12/11/2020 
Distance from 52W High-54.3% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$8.84$10.56
DMA Trenddowndown
Distance from DMA-25.1%-37.3%
 3M1YR
Volatility45.2%61.4%
Downside Capture239.91165.69
Upside Capture90.1266.56
Correlation (SPY)37.3%29.0%
CERT Betas & Captures as of 1/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta1.170.921.151.520.921.17
Up Beta2.632.934.513.511.031.31
Down Beta-0.53-0.220.061.620.360.72
Up Capture188%105%-25%53%77%98%
Bmk +ve Days11223471142430
Stock +ve Days9192861111365
Down Capture256%134%143%109%128%110%
Bmk -ve Days9192754109321
Stock -ve Days11223364135380

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with CERT
CERT-49.2%61.2%-0.87-
Sector ETF (XLV)9.6%17.4%0.3730.1%
Equity (SPY)14.0%19.4%0.5529.2%
Gold (GLD)74.3%25.3%2.177.8%
Commodities (DBC)7.0%16.7%0.2412.9%
Real Estate (VNQ)7.9%16.6%0.2826.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-29.8%44.9%-0.6526.6%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with CERT
CERT-28.7%55.5%-0.39-
Sector ETF (XLV)8.0%14.5%0.3733.5%
Equity (SPY)13.3%17.0%0.6238.4%
Gold (GLD)22.1%17.0%1.065.2%
Commodities (DBC)10.5%18.9%0.441.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.2%18.8%0.1833.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)8.3%57.2%0.3721.1%

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Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with CERT
CERT-15.6%56.1%-0.37-
Sector ETF (XLV)11.2%16.5%0.5633.1%
Equity (SPY)15.6%17.9%0.7537.9%
Gold (GLD)15.3%15.6%0.824.8%
Commodities (DBC)8.1%17.6%0.381.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)6.4%20.7%0.2733.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)67.9%66.7%1.0720.2%

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Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date1302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity20.8 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 1152026-3.5%
Average Daily Volume1.7 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest11.9 days
Basic Shares Quantity160.4 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares13.0%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/6/2025-23.1%-25.4%-18.6%
8/6/202518.2%17.2%10.4%
4/14/202511.5%12.1%-6.0%
1/15/202511.4%20.9%32.7%
11/6/20240.7%-1.8%-0.5%
5/7/2024-7.4%-7.0%-2.7%
3/1/202317.3%15.3%29.1%
11/7/20227.1%15.0%37.2%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive765
# Negative678
Median Positive11.4%15.1%32.7%
Median Negative-11.0%-11.5%-10.2%
Max Positive18.2%20.9%37.2%
Max Negative-23.1%-25.4%-33.1%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202511/06/202510-Q
06/30/202508/06/202510-Q
03/31/202505/05/202510-Q
12/31/202402/26/202510-K
09/30/202411/06/202410-Q
06/30/202408/06/202410-Q
03/31/202405/07/202410-Q
12/31/202302/29/202410-K
09/30/202311/08/202310-Q
06/30/202308/09/202310-Q
03/31/202305/08/202310-Q
12/31/202203/01/202310-K
09/30/202211/07/202210-Q
06/30/202208/09/202210-Q
03/31/202205/05/202210-Q
12/31/202103/01/202210-K

Insider Activity

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#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Feehery, William FCHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICERDirectBuy111220258.3024,096200,00019,594,386Form
2Pedersen, Leif EPRESIDENT, CHIEF COMMERCAL OFFDirectSell911202510.9251,224559,366807,851Form