Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -84%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -111%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 61x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 180x
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and AI Software Platforms.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.6%
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and AI Software Platforms.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -84%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -111%
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 61x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 180x
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.6%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CERT Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Certara (CERT) experienced a notable decline in its stock price during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025. This movement was influenced by several key factors in the market and analyst community.

1. Analyst Downgrade and Price Target Reduction
On November 7, 2025, Barclays significantly cut its price target for Certara from $16 to $14. This downgrade was a major catalyst, leading to a substantial drop in the stock price, specifically around 23.1% from its prior close on that day. This reassessment by a prominent financial institution likely impacted investor confidence in the company's future valuation.

2. Bearish Market Sentiment
Towards the end of 2025, the overall market sentiment for Certara turned bearish. As of November 29, 2025, technical analysis indicators predominantly signaled a downward trend, with 18 bearish signals compared to 8 bullish ones, and the Fear & Greed Index indicated "Fear." This general negative outlook contributed to sustained selling pressure on the stock.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CERT Return--16%-43%9%-39%-13%-73%
Peers Return19%16%-4%-24%2%-26%-24%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CERT Win Rate 58%33%50%33%50% 
Peers Win Rate20%23%23%27%27%49% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CERT Max Drawdown--27%-63%-25%-46%-25% 
Peers Max Drawdown-16%-2%-32%-33%-23%-36% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: OMCL, MDRX, BEAT, CARL, HTFL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCERTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-76.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven324.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-16.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven19.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven301 days148 days

Compare to OMCL, MDRX, BEAT, CARL, HTFL


In The Past

Certara's stock fell -76.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/4/2021. A -76.4% loss requires a 324.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Certara (CERT)

Better Bets than Certara (CERT)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CERT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
CERT_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025CERTCertaraDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-7.4%
CERT_10312024_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10312024CERTCertaraDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
30.3%14.0%-11.3%
CERT_10312023_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10312023CERTCertaraDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
40.4%-15.4%-17.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
CERT_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025CERTCertaraDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-7.4%
CERT_10312024_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10312024CERTCertaraDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
30.3%14.0%-11.3%
CERT_10312023_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10312023CERTCertaraDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
40.4%-15.4%-17.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Certara

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CERTOMCLMDRXBEATCARLHTFLMedian
NameCertara Omnicell Veradigm HeartBeamCarlsmed HeartFlow 
Mkt Price9.6840.485.000.7016.9928.0013.33
Mkt Cap1.61.80.50.0--1.0
Rev LTM4161,178588033139277
Op Inc LTM2617-20-21-24-61-20
FCF LTM929483-15-30-9034
FCF 3Y Avg69126-79-13--28
CFO LTM117153116-15-29-8550
CFO 3Y Avg89183-22-13--38

Growth & Margins

CERTOMCLMDRXBEATCARLHTFLMedian
NameCertara Omnicell Veradigm HeartBeamCarlsmed HeartFlow 
Rev Chg LTM11.5%10.7%1.8%---10.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg8.6%-3.0%-20.1%----3.0%
Rev Chg Q10.3%10.0%-9.7%---10.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.4%2.5%-2.5%---2.4%
Op Mgn LTM6.3%1.5%-3.3%--71.4%-44.4%-3.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.1%-2.0%4.4%---3.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%0.1%-13.3%----0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM28.1%13.0%19.7%--86.4%-61.5%13.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg23.2%16.0%-4.1%---16.0%
FCF/Rev LTM22.0%8.0%14.2%--88.9%-65.0%8.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg18.1%11.0%-14.2%---11.0%

Valuation

CERTOMCLMDRXBEATCARLHTFLMedian
NameCertara Omnicell Veradigm HeartBeamCarlsmed HeartFlow 
Mkt Cap1.61.80.50.0--1.0
P/S4.71.20.9---1.2
P/EBIT60.680.9-8.8-2.1--29.3
P/E180.269.6-5.9-2.1--33.8
P/CFO16.89.04.4-2.7--6.7
Total Yield0.6%1.4%-17.0%-48.1%---8.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%--0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.3%6.9%-1.5%-27.2%--0.9%
D/E0.20.10.40.0--0.2
Net D/E0.10.0-0.4-0.1---0.1

Returns

CERTOMCLMDRXBEATCARLHTFLMedian
NameCertara Omnicell Veradigm HeartBeamCarlsmed HeartFlow 
1M Rtn-17.3%21.3%4.2%-59.8%39.0%-17.8%-6.5%
3M Rtn-7.8%23.3%1.0%-49.7%31.1%-10.5%-3.4%
6M Rtn-19.0%29.4%16.3%-58.1%---1.4%
12M Rtn-14.0%-13.7%-52.6%-76.1%---33.3%
3Y Rtn-44.6%-20.4%-73.8%-84.9%---59.2%
1M Excs Rtn-17.2%21.3%4.2%-59.7%39.1%-17.7%-6.5%
3M Excs Rtn-13.9%16.9%-4.3%-55.0%26.3%-23.2%-9.1%
6M Excs Rtn-33.7%14.7%1.6%-72.8%---16.1%
12M Excs Rtn-27.2%-26.7%-65.5%-90.5%---46.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-111.4%-89.6%-145.3%-158.8%---128.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Provides technology-enabled services and software products to its customers354    
Services 220199170140
Software 115877368
Total354336286244209


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Provides technology-enabled services and software products to its customers-55    
Total-55    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity18,196,578
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120252.2%
Average Daily Volume3,343,749
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.44
Basic Shares Quantity160,403,011
Short % of Basic Shares11.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025505202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023508202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021