RXO (RXO)
Market Price (10/5/2026): $28.73 | Market Cap: $4.9 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Cargo Ground Transportation
RXO (RXO)
Market Price (10/5/2026): $28.73Market Cap: $4.9 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Cargo Ground Transportation
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -68% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -14 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.2% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.2% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.7% Key risksRXO key risks include [1] challenges successfully integrating the Coyote Logistics acquisition and realizing expected synergies and [2] ongoing legal inquiries regarding alleged false statements and potential breaches of federal securities laws. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -68% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -14 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.2% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.2% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.7% |
| Key risksRXO key risks include [1] challenges successfully integrating the Coyote Logistics acquisition and realizing expected synergies and [2] ongoing legal inquiries regarding alleged false statements and potential breaches of federal securities laws. |
Qualitative Assessment
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RXO (RXO) stock has lost about 15% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Cautious Fiscal Q3 2026 Guidance Despite Q2 Earnings Beat.
RXO reported better-than-expected fiscal Q2 2026 earnings on August 6, 2026, with adjusted EPS of $0.06, surpassing consensus estimates of $0.04, and revenue of $1.77 billion, exceeding the $1.63 billion estimate. However, the company provided a cautious outlook for fiscal Q3 2026, guiding for adjusted EBITDA between $35 million and $45 million. This guidance incorporated an anticipated incremental sequential headwind of $3 million to $5 million for the Last Mile segment, primarily due to weaker customer demand and higher carrier costs. The expectation of a decline in Last Mile services more than typical seasonality likely tempered investor enthusiasm despite the Q2 beat.
2. Persistent Soft Freight Demand and Macroeconomic Headwinds.
The period since late fiscal Q2 2026 has been characterized by persistent soft freight demand across the broader transportation and logistics industry. Macroeconomic uncertainty, driven by factors such as unclear trade policies, tepid consumer demand, and fluctuating diesel prices, has continued to impact the sector. While some segments, like truckload volume, were projected to see low-to-mid single-digit percentage year-over-year growth, the overall demand picture remained muted, leading to a challenging operating environment for freight brokers. This soft demand contributed to a 21.3% decline in RXO's stock price from its 52-week high of $29.30 in July 2026 to $23.06 by October 2, 2026.
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RXO (RXO) stock has lost about 15% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Cautious Fiscal Q3 2026 Guidance Despite Q2 Earnings Beat.
RXO reported better-than-expected fiscal Q2 2026 earnings on August 6, 2026, with adjusted EPS of $0.06, surpassing consensus estimates of $0.04, and revenue of $1.77 billion, exceeding the $1.63 billion estimate. However, the company provided a cautious outlook for fiscal Q3 2026, guiding for adjusted EBITDA between $35 million and $45 million. This guidance incorporated an anticipated incremental sequential headwind of $3 million to $5 million for the Last Mile segment, primarily due to weaker customer demand and higher carrier costs. The expectation of a decline in Last Mile services more than typical seasonality likely tempered investor enthusiasm despite the Q2 beat.
2. Persistent Soft Freight Demand and Macroeconomic Headwinds.
The period since late fiscal Q2 2026 has been characterized by persistent soft freight demand across the broader transportation and logistics industry. Macroeconomic uncertainty, driven by factors such as unclear trade policies, tepid consumer demand, and fluctuating diesel prices, has continued to impact the sector. While some segments, like truckload volume, were projected to see low-to-mid single-digit percentage year-over-year growth, the overall demand picture remained muted, leading to a challenging operating environment for freight brokers. This soft demand contributed to a 21.3% decline in RXO's stock price from its 52-week high of $29.30 in July 2026 to $23.06 by October 2, 2026.
3. Negative Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Adjustments.
Analyst sentiment for RXO remained largely cautious throughout fiscal Q3 2026. As of early October 2026, the consensus analyst rating for RXO was "Hold," with 10 out of 19 analysts recommending a "Hold" and 3 recommending "Sell". The average 12-month price target was around $23.62 to $25.61, offering limited upside from the stock's prevailing price. In September 2026, S&P Global Ratings affirmed RXO's sub-investment-grade "BB" debt rating with a negative outlook, citing concerns about profitability and credit metrics. Additionally, some analysts adjusted their price targets downward, such as Susquehanna, which lowered its target from $20 to $19 on September 23, 2026.
4. Industry-Wide Capacity Tightening and Cost Inflation.
The freight market during fiscal Q3 2026 experienced continued volatility and sustained rate inflation, driven primarily by supply-side constraints rather than surging demand. Factors such as carrier attrition, driver shortages, and regulatory pressures led to tightening truckload capacity. While this can drive up spot and contract rates, it also creates an unstable environment that can increase operational costs for logistics providers like RXO, particularly in managing its Last Mile delivery services where higher carrier costs were noted.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -15.3% change in RXO stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -19.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 27.59 | 23.38 | -15.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,734 | 6,089 | 6.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.8 | 0.7 | -19.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 169 | 170 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -15.3% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RXO | -15.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.1% | 19.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | -8.2% | 23.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 59.9% change in RXO stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 51.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 14.62 | 23.38 | 59.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,742 | 6,089 | 6.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.4 | 0.7 | 51.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 169 | 170 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 59.9% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RXO | 59.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 18.6% | 16.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 5.3% | 17.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 52.0% change in RXO stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 39.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 15.38 | 23.38 | 52.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,559 | 6,089 | 9.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.5 | 0.7 | 39.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 169 | 170 | -0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 52.0% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RXO | 52.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.5% | 32.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 11.2% | 33.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 18.5% change in RXO stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 43.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 19.73 | 23.38 | 18.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,231 | 6,089 | 43.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.5 | 0.7 | 19.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 117 | 170 | -31.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 18.5% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RXO | 18.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.2% | 42.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 74.3% | 48.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RXO Return | - | -18% | 35% | 2% | -47% | 62% | -3% |
| Peers Return | 29% | -15% | 41% | 13% | 11% | 16% | 126% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 104% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RXO Win Rate | - | 33% | 58% | 58% | 42% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 42% | 57% | 52% | 60% | 49% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RXO Max Drawdown | - | - | -27% | -26% | -61% | -35% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -30% | -26% | -21% | -31% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CHRW, XPO, JBHT, SNDR, LSTR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RXO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 381 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -19.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 30 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -18.0% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 36 days | 31 days |
In The Past
RXO's stock fell -41.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 72.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | RXO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 381 days | 79 days |
In The Past
RXO's stock fell -41.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 72.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About RXO (RXO)
RXO, Inc. is a leading provider of comprehensive transportation solutions, primarily focused on optimizing the movement of goods for businesses. The company specializes in core logistics services such as freight forwarding, which orchestrates the shipment of goods across various modes, and truckload services, handling large-volume freight transportation that typically occupies an entire truck.
Beyond foundational logistics, RXO also offers advanced supply chain management, overseeing the entire flow of products from origin to destination. A key differentiator for RXO is its strategic application of cutting-edge technology, including data science, technology operations, and machine learning, to enhance the efficiency, transparency, and cost-effectiveness of its transportation and supply chain offerings for its clients.
Serving a diverse clientele across various industries that require sophisticated logistics support, RXO's primary operational footprint spans the North American continent, encompassing the United States, Canada, and Mexico.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for RXO:
- Imagine Amazon's sophisticated logistics system, but built to manage shipping and supply chains for other companies.
- Think of them as an 'Uber' for large-scale corporate freight, using advanced technology to connect businesses with optimal shipping solutions.
- A tech-driven UPS or FedEx, specializing in managing complex freight and supply chains for businesses, rather than just delivering packages.
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- Freight Forwarding: RXO arranges the transportation of goods from one point to another on behalf of shippers.
- Truckload Services: The company provides solutions for shipping goods via truck, typically for larger shipments that occupy an entire truck.
- Supply Chain Management: RXO offers services to optimize and manage the flow of goods, information, and finances from point of origin to point of consumption.
- Data Science Solutions: The company leverages data analysis and statistical methods to extract insights and improve decision-making within transportation and logistics.
- Technology Operations: RXO manages and provides technological infrastructure and support to facilitate efficient transportation and logistics processes.
- Machine Learning Solutions: The company applies artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms to automate and optimize various aspects of transportation and supply chain operations.
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RXO, Inc. (symbol: RXO) primarily serves other businesses (B2B) by providing transportation solutions, freight forwarding, truckload, and supply chain management services.
According to its public filings, RXO maintains a highly diversified customer base and does not have significant concentration in any single customer or industry. Therefore, there are no specific "major customers" that are individually named or represent a substantial portion of the company's revenue, as is common for logistics and freight brokerage providers.
However, RXO serves a wide range of companies across various industries, including:
- Retail and E-commerce
- Consumer Goods
- Manufacturing
- Automotive
- Industrial
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Drew Wilkerson, Chairman and CEO
Drew Wilkerson is a transportation industry veteran with 19 years of brokerage leadership experience. He joined RXO's predecessor company in 2012, rising through roles including regional vice president and president of the North American brokerage business, and then president of North American Transportation in 2020. Mr. Wilkerson was selected as CEO when RXO was established as an independent company in 2022 and named Chairman of the RXO Board of Directors in May 2025. Prior to RXO, he spent six years with C.H. Robinson, working in sales, carrier relations, operations, and customer relations.
Jamie Harris, Chief Financial Officer
Jamie Harris brings 35 years of business-to-business experience, including over two decades in high-level roles for public companies. He joined RXO in September 2022 and was instrumental in the successful spin-off from XPO Logistics in November 2022. Prior to RXO, Mr. Harris served as CFO and treasurer at global manufacturer SPX Technologies. He also held similar positions at Coca-Cola Consolidated, where he was CFO for eight years, and at Elevated Textiles, Inc., where he served as CFO and interim CEO. He began his career with Ernst & Young LLP.
Louis Amo, President, Truck Brokerage
Louis Amo has spent more than a decade building RXO's brokerage business. He joined RXO's predecessor company in 2012 as vice president of brokerage operations and was promoted to president of the North American truck brokerage business in 2020. Between 2016 and 2020, his role expanded to include executive responsibility for expedite and managed transportation. Prior to joining RXO's predecessor, Mr. Amo held senior positions with Electrolux and SABIC (formerly GE Plastics).
Sandeep Pisipati, President, Last Mile
Sandeep Pisipati leads RXO's last mile business. He joined RXO with the acquisition of Coyote Logistics, where he served as president and CEO since 2023. Before becoming CEO, Mr. Pisipati was Coyote's chief financial officer from 2019 to 2023, having initially joined the company as senior vice president of finance and accounting in 2018. Prior to Coyote, he spent 14 years at Stericycle, a global leader in healthcare logistics.
Alyssa Myers, Chief Technology Officer
Alyssa Myers leads RXO's comprehensive technology strategy, overseeing operations, customer platforms, and carrier solutions. She joined RXO's predecessor company in 2014 and has been central to building the company's digital infrastructure. Ms. Myers spearheaded proprietary intermodal technology and played a key role in launching and scaling RXO's flagship platforms, RXO Connect® and RXO Drive®.
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Here are the key risks to RXO's business:
-
Freight Market Cyclicality and Economic Volatility: RXO's performance is highly sensitive to economic cycles, with demand and pricing in the truck brokerage industry directly impacted by economic downturns, inflation, and reduced consumer spending. This can lead to lackluster freight conditions, pressure on volumes and margins, and challenges to revenue stability.
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Intense Competition and Margin Pressure: The logistics and transportation industry is highly competitive, with numerous players vying for market share, including established giants and technology-driven newcomers. This intense rivalry, coupled with tightening truck capacity and rising spot rates, exerts significant pressure on RXO's margins and overall profitability.
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Integration Challenges from Acquisitions and Financial Leverage: The acquisition of Coyote in 2024 has presented integration challenges that have negatively impacted RXO's core brokerage earnings and led to downward revisions of earnings expectations. Failure to fully realize the anticipated synergies could continue to affect operational efficiencies and financial performance. Furthermore, RXO carries high financial leverage, which increases its vulnerability to higher interest rates or cash-flow shortfalls, particularly in periods of negative profitability and cash flow.
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RXO, Inc. operates in several large addressable markets across North America for its transportation solutions, including freight forwarding, truckload services, and supply chain management.
Freight Forwarding
- The North America freight forwarding market is estimated at USD 146.26 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 179.39 billion by 2030, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.17% during this period.
- The United States held a dominant share of 87.44% of the North America freight forwarding market in 2024.
- Within North America, the Mexico freight forwarding market generated USD 5,150.0 million in revenue in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 6,651.7 million by 2030, with a CAGR of 4.5% from 2025 to 2030.
- The Canada freight forwarding market is projected to reach USD 10,209.3 million by 2030.
Truckload Services
- The U.S. truckload market represents over $875 billion annually in gross freight revenues.
- The North America Long-haul Transport Market, which encompasses truckload services, is expected to increase from USD 478.98 billion in 2025 to USD 499.53 billion in 2026 and reach USD 604.47 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 3.89% from 2026-2031. The United States accounted for an 85.22% share of this market in 2025.
- The Canada truckload market was valued at USD 15.0 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach USD 24.6 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 5.62% during 2026-2034.
- RXO is recognized as the fourth-largest freight brokerage firm in North America, holding an estimated 3.5% market share of the approximately $250 billion U.S. brokerage industry as of early 2025.
Supply Chain Management
- The global supply chain management market is valued at USD 35.30 billion in 2025 and is predicted to grow to approximately USD 89.57 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 11.50% from 2025 to 2034.
- North America contributed the largest market share of 39.34% to the global supply chain management market in 2024.
- The U.S. supply chain management market is estimated to be US$ 7.6 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach US$ 12.2 billion by 2032.
- The Mexico supply chain management market generated a revenue of USD 875.7 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 1,609.7 million by 2030, with a CAGR of 10.7% from 2025 to 2030.
- The Canada supply chain management market is projected to reach USD 3,510.1 million by 2030.
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RXO, Inc. (NYSE: RXO) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several strategic initiatives and market expansions.
The key drivers of RXO's expected revenue growth include:
- Integration and Synergies from Coyote Logistics Acquisition: The acquisition of Coyote Logistics, completed in late 2024 or early 2025, is a primary growth catalyst. This strategic move significantly expanded RXO's market reach, customer base, and service offerings, positioning it as a major force in North American logistics. The successful integration is expected to boost efficiency and profitability, with annualized cost synergy estimates increasing.
- Expansion of Brokerage Volume: RXO is actively focused on increasing its brokerage volume. The company has reported sequential growth in overall brokerage volume and a significant year-over-year increase in less-than-truckload (LTL) brokerage volume. This expansion of brokerage services is a core component of RXO's business strategy.
- Growth in Managed Transportation Services: The Managed Transportation segment is demonstrating strong momentum, characterized by a substantial sales pipeline of new freight under management. This indicates significant potential for further expansion in optimizing client logistics operations and securing new contracts.
- Investment in Technology and Digital Adoption: RXO is committed to leveraging its technological advantages, particularly its digital freight marketplace, RXO Connect. The company continues to invest in transformational AI technology to enhance service efficiency, streamline the freight booking process, and capture a larger share of the truck brokerage industry. Increased digital adoption rates through its platform are a key indicator of this strategy's success.
- Geographic and Service Offering Expansion: RXO is strategically expanding its operational footprint by scaling cross-border U.S.-Mexico lanes and growing its Canadian brokerage business. Additionally, the company is extending its last-mile heavy-goods coverage in underserved metropolitan areas, aligning with nearshoring trends and broadening its service offerings to a wider customer base.
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Share Repurchases
- RXO's Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of up to $125 million of the company's common stock on May 2, 2023.
- As of March 31, 2024, approximately $123 million remained available under this share repurchase program.
Share Issuance
- In 2024, RXO raised approximately $1.1 billion through equity offerings to partially fund the acquisition of Coyote Logistics.
- In October 2022, RXO issued $355 million of unsecured 7.50% notes due 2027 to support its operations and growth initiatives.
- The company incurred a one-time charge of $216 million in 2024 related to a deemed non-pro rata distribution in connection with a private placement common stock issuance.
Inbound Investments
- MFN Partners and Orbis Investments, two of RXO's largest shareholders, provided a combined $550 million equity investment to help finance the acquisition of Coyote Logistics in 2024.
Outbound Investments
- On September 16, 2024, RXO completed the acquisition of Coyote Logistics from UPS for $1.025 billion in cash. This acquisition was intended to enhance RXO's market position, diversify its customer base, and broaden its carrier network.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures totaled $45 million in 2024 and $57 million in 2025.
- For 2026, RXO expects capital expenditures to be between $50 million and $55 million.
- These capital expenditures primarily focus on strategic investments in technology, equipment, and real estate, including a $13.7 million investment by the end of 2026 to expand its Charlotte headquarters.
Peer Outperformance in Cargo Ground Transportation
null| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction & Engineering | 31 | 9.9% | 133.1% | 195.8% | CDNL 2264% · STRL 2206% · FIX 2205% |
| Marine Transportation | 5 | 88.0% | 70.6% | 178.4% | HOS 39847% · MATX 195% · KEX 178% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | 3.5% | 54.9% | 103.6% | CAT 379% · ALSN 253% · WAB 231% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 54 | -12.8% | 64.8% | 71.1% | ATI 1031% · FTAI 826% · HWM 631% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 19 | 5.0% | 37.3% | 52.1% | DXPE 518% · AIT 284% · WCC 224% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 72 | 14.5% | 52.3% | 50.2% | CRS 1129% · PSIX 1065% · EROC 627% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 20.0% | 62.7% | 48.3% | FSTR 138% · RAIL 64% · CSX 61% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation ← | 16 | 37.3% | 5.9% | 34.2% | XPO 287% · R 220% · CVLG 155% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 39 | 7.3% | 67.1% | 31.8% | POWL 2405% · BE 1469% · VRT 996% |
| Diversified Support Services | 33 | 9.3% | 33.6% | 30.2% | LIME 3065% · TH 369% · CXW 274% |
| Building Products | 33 | -14.9% | 3.0% | 17.7% | LMB 624% · GFF 356% · PPIH 269% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 9.6% | 6.0% | -0.5% | RCMT 614% · CSW 133% · CSL 73% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 17 | 11.6% | 4.0% | -4.5% | BLBD 175% · DE 117% · GENC 59% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 30 | -18.6% | 21.1% | -8.2% | CECO 924% · ADUR 438% · NVRI 314% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -29.5% | 50.8% | -9.1% | UBER 49% · CAR -9% · LYFT -71% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | -12.4% | -28.6% | -15.8% | HURN 221% · CRAI 72% · GRNQ 37% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 9 | -38.7% | 37.8% | -20.5% | CIX 156% · MG 110% · NL 70% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 9 | 13.5% | 18.9% | -28.5% | PBI 181% · TILE 123% · HNI 47% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -36.4% | -16.5% | -28.6% | EXLS 43% · BR 4% · G -25% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | 13.1% | 21.1% | -35.8% | LTM 2944% · UAL 121% · DAL 95% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -32.1% | -21.8% | -37.2% | CHRW 103% · FDX 79% · EXPD 77% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 22 | 1.7% | -17.6% | -40.0% | BBSI 63% · ADP 41% · HQI 4% |
| Airport Services | 3 | -76.8% | -78.7% | -71.2% | JOBY -35% · ASLE -71% · UP -100% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| 6-Day Rally Sends RXO Stock Up 39% | 05/23/2026 | |
| RXO Stock (-11%): Freight Market Data Signals Severe Margin Squeeze | 03/07/2026 | |
| RXO Stock (-20%): Debt Refinancing Triggers Capitulation Selling | 02/13/2026 | |
| RXO Stock Falls -12% With A 6-day Losing Spree On BofA Forecast Cut | 12/30/2026 | |
| RXO Earnings Notes | 12/29/2026 | |
| RXO Stock Rockets 36% With 8-Day Winning Streak | 12/04/2025 | |
| Where Does RXO Stock Rank Among Competitors? | 08/13/2025 | |
| Better Bet Than RXO Stock: Pay Less Than RXO To Get More From NVDA, AVGO | 08/12/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| RXO Stock Rockets 39% With 5-Day Winning Streak | 05/22/2026 | |
| RXO Stock 8-Day Winning Spree: Stock Climbs 36% | 12/04/2025 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 159.23 |
| Mkt Cap | 11.5 |
| Rev LTM | 7,331 |
| Op Inc LTM | 515 |
| FCF LTM | 398 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 177 |
| CFO LTM | 660 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 624 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 18.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 3.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -11.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 11.5 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/Op Inc | 24.5 |
| P/EBIT | 25.9 |
| P/E | 38.7 |
| P/CFO | 16.9 |
| Total Yield | 3.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $23.38 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 4.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/27/2022 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -20.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $21.20 | $19.53 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | 10.3% | 19.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 57.0% | 73.0% |
| Downside Capture | 170.67 | 185.36 |
| Upside Capture | 74.70 | 193.98 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 16.7% | 31.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.79 | 2.26 | 0.80 | 0.83 | 1.77 | 1.67 |
| Up Beta | 0.80 | 0.67 | 1.39 | 0.86 | 0.58 | 1.58 |
| Down Beta | 2.93 | 1.34 | -0.23 | 0.68 | 2.84 | 1.90 |
| Up Capture | 25% | 299% | 5% | 109% | 286% | 342% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 29 | 68 | 136 | 383 |
| Down Capture | 127% | 285% | 177% | 58% | 142% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 20 | 35 | 57 | 114 | 362 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RXO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RXO | 53.1% | 72.9% | 0.90 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 11.5% | 17.3% | 0.46 | 33.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.2% | 13.0% | 0.88 | 32.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 6.8% | 29.6% | 0.22 | 10.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 44.9% | 20.8% | 1.67 | -5.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.5% | 13.6% | -0.15 | 26.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -28.9% | 44.3% | -0.64 | 7.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RXO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RXO | 5.5% | 56.4% | 0.33 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.6% | 17.6% | 0.55 | 47.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.2% | 0.58 | 41.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.4% | 18.9% | 0.79 | 4.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.3% | 19.6% | 0.41 | 5.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.7% | 18.8% | -0.07 | 33.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 14.6% | 52.2% | 0.45 | 10.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RXO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RXO | 2.7% | 56.4% | 0.33 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.2% | 20.0% | 0.58 | 47.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 41.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.5% | 16.4% | 0.57 | 4.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 5.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.2% | 20.7% | 0.16 | 33.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 64.1% | 66.2% | 1.04 | 10.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/9/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/6/2026 | -3.6% | 8.1% | -4.8% |
| 5/7/2026 | 17.8% | 1.0% | 36.9% |
| 2/6/2026 | 1.9% | -21.7% | -16.6% |
| 11/6/2025 | -23.1% | -29.9% | -19.9% |
| 8/7/2025 | -4.3% | 0.7% | 6.9% |
| 5/7/2025 | -5.6% | 20.8% | 15.5% |
| 2/5/2025 | -14.9% | -17.3% | -19.1% |
| 11/7/2024 | -10.0% | -12.7% | -10.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 5 | 7 | 7 |
| # Negative | 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 6.0% | 7.0% | 14.7% |
| Median Negative | -6.6% | -11.1% | -12.3% |
| Max Positive | 17.8% | 20.8% | 36.9% |
| Max Negative | -23.1% | -29.9% | -19.9% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/6/2026 | -3.6% | 8.1% | -4.8% |
| 5/7/2026 | 17.8% | 1.0% | 36.9% |
| 2/6/2026 | 1.9% | -21.7% | -16.6% |
| 11/6/2025 | -23.1% | -29.9% | -19.9% |
| 8/7/2025 | -4.3% | 0.7% | 6.9% |
| 5/7/2025 | -5.6% | 20.8% | 15.5% |
| 2/5/2025 | -14.9% | -17.3% | -19.1% |
| 11/7/2024 | -10.0% | -12.7% | -10.5% |
| 8/7/2024 | -2.5% | -8.6% | -8.7% |
| 5/2/2024 | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.4% |
| 2/8/2024 | -7.7% | -2.9% | -7.0% |
| 11/7/2023 | -0.3% | -0.1% | 14.7% |
| 8/2/2023 | -10.4% | -9.4% | -14.2% |
| 5/3/2023 | 6.0% | 3.7% | 15.7% |
| 2/7/2023 | 8.6% | 7.0% | 2.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 5 | 7 | 7 |
| # Negative | 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 6.0% | 7.0% | 14.7% |
| Median Negative | -6.6% | -11.1% | -12.3% |
| Max Positive | 17.8% | 20.8% | 36.9% |
| Max Negative | -23.1% | -29.9% | -19.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/09/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/30/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/09/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/30/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 10/13/2022 | 10-12B/A |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/4/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Brokerage Volume Growth | Reported | 1.0% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 3.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.0% for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 35.00 Mil | 40.00 Mil | 45.00 Mil | 25.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 32.00 Mil for Q2 2026 | |
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Brokerage Volume Growth | Reported | 0.0% | 7.5% | Higher New | Actual: -7.5% for Q1 2026 | |||
| Q2 2026 Full Truckload Volume Growth | Reported | 0.0% | ||||||
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 27.00 Mil | 32.00 Mil | 37.00 Mil | 276.5% | Higher New | Actual: 8.50 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| 2026 Contract Rates Growth | Reported | 8.0% | Raised | |||||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Brokerage Volume Growth | Reported | -10.0% | -7.5% | -5.0% | -5.0% | Lower New | Guidance: -2.5% for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Brokerage Gross Margin | Reported | 11.0% | 12.0% | 13.0% | -0.5% | Lower New | Guidance: 12.5% for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 5.00 Mil | 8.50 Mil | 12.00 Mil | -66.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 25.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Brokerage Volume Growth | Reported | -2.5% | ||||||
| Q4 2025 Brokerage Gross Margin | Reported | 12.0% | 12.5% | 13.0% | -1.8% | Lower New | Actual: 14.25% for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 20.00 Mil | 25.00 Mil | 30.00 Mil | -34.2% | Lower New | Actual: 38.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |
| 2025 Incremental Cost Savings | Reported | 30.00 Mil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 8/25/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mfn, Partners, LP | Direct | Buy | 2172026 | 12.00 | 532,276 | 6,387,312 | 337,319,304 | Form | |
| 2 | Cooper, Troy A | Direct | Buy | 11242025 | 10.61 | 8,317 | 88,243 | 2,922,164 | Form | |
| 3 | Kingshott, Adrian | Direct | Buy | 11192025 | 10.75 | 9,350 | 100,512 | 979,723 | Form | |
| 4 | Kerr, Jason S | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 11.57 | 33,343 | 385,779 | 503,966 | Form |
| 5 | Szlosek, Thomas A | Trust | Buy | 11122025 | 12.37 | 20,308 | 251,210 | 451,604 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mfn, Partners, LP | Direct | Buy | 2172026 | 12.00 | 532,276 | 6,387,312 | 337,319,304 | Form | |
| 2 | Cooper, Troy A | Direct | Buy | 11242025 | 10.61 | 8,317 | 88,243 | 2,922,164 | Form | |
| 3 | Kingshott, Adrian | Direct | Buy | 11192025 | 10.75 | 9,350 | 100,512 | 979,723 | Form | |
| 4 | Kerr, Jason S | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 11.57 | 33,343 | 385,779 | 503,966 | Form |
| 5 | Szlosek, Thomas A | Trust | Buy | 11122025 | 12.37 | 20,308 | 251,210 | 451,604 | Form | |
| 6 | Wilkerson, Andrew M | Chief Executive Officer | Trust | Buy | 11102025 | 12.88 | 7,775 | 100,142 | 100,142 | Form |
| 7 | Wilkerson, Andrew M | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 11102025 | 12.80 | 3,850 | 49,280 | 49,280 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Oct 5, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Cargo Ground Transportation Resources |
| Transport Topics |
| Commercial Carrier Journal (CCJ) |
| FreightWaves |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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