Tearsheet

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.06 | Market Cap: $72.3 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.06
Market Cap: $72.3 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Restaurants

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands.
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -106%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -122%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 484%
1  Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.5%
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -56%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -106%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -122%
2 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 484%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.5%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -56%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

RRGB Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) stock experienced a decline of approximately 37.5%. This movement can be attributed to several key factors. On August 29, 2025, RRGB closed at $6.48. By December 4, 2025, the stock was trading around $4.02.

1. Weak Q3 2025 Financial Performance: Red Robin reported a decrease in total revenues to $265.1 million for the fiscal third quarter ended October 5, 2025, marking a $9.5 million decline year-over-year. Comparable restaurant revenue also decreased by 1.2%, or 1.3% when excluding deferred loyalty revenue.

2. Net Loss and Missed EPS Forecast: The company recorded a net loss of $18.4 million in Q3 2025. On an adjusted basis, the loss per share was $0.70, which slightly missed the analyst forecast of a -$0.68 loss per share.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
RRGB Return-42%-14%-66%123%-56%-27%-88%
Peers Return20%31%4%1%8%-6%68%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
RRGB Win Rate33%33%33%58%42%60% 
Peers Win Rate32%35%30%25%27%62% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
RRGB Max Drawdown-84%-21%-67%0%-76%-53% 
Peers Max Drawdown-32%-3%-15%-10%-14%-17% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BH, RICK, BRCB, CCHH, MCD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventRRGBS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-86.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven663.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-86.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven616.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven355 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-65.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven186.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-79.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven397.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1565 days1480 days

Compare to BH, RICK, BRCB, CCHH, MCD


In The Past

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers's stock fell -86.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/15/2021. A -86.9% loss requires a 663.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB)

Better Bets than Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to RRGB. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Red Robin Gourmet Burgers

Peers to compare with:

Financials

RRGBBHRICKBRCBCCHHMCDMedian
NameRed Robi.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.CCH McDonald. 
Mkt Price4.05308.6025.1824.6810.47307.7124.93
Mkt Cap0.10.40.2--219.40.3
Rev LTM1,236387282--26,263811
Op Inc LTM82447--12,11335
FCF LTM-88134--7,37257
FCF 3Y Avg-275428--7,04941
CFO LTM2210751--10,48579
CFO 3Y Avg118056--9,70468

Growth & Margins

RRGBBHRICKBRCBCCHHMCDMedian
NameRed Robi.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.CCH McDonald. 
Rev Chg LTM-3.1%6.9%-5.3%--1.2%-0.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.3%1.7%4.2%--4.2%2.9%
Rev Chg Q-5.5%10.3%-6.6%--3.0%-1.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.3%2.5%-1.8%--0.8%-0.3%
Op Mgn LTM0.6%6.2%16.6%--46.1%11.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-0.5%8.1%19.8%--45.9%14.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.9%1.0%-1.3%---0.0%0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM1.8%27.7%18.2%--39.9%23.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg0.9%21.3%19.4%--37.7%20.3%
FCF/Rev LTM-0.7%21.0%11.9%--28.1%16.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-2.1%14.2%9.7%--27.4%12.0%

Valuation

RRGBBHRICKBRCBCCHHMCDMedian
NameRed Robi.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.CCH McDonald. 
Mkt Cap0.10.40.2--219.40.3
P/S0.11.11.2--8.21.1
P/EBIT-3.861.29.3--17.713.5
P/E-1.9200.820.2--25.723.0
P/CFO4.63.96.5--20.75.6
Total Yield-51.8%0.5%5.7%--6.2%3.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.7%--2.3%0.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-19.3%17.5%6.6%--3.4%5.0%
D/E5.10.80.8--0.30.8
Net D/E4.8-0.10.7--0.20.5

Returns

RRGBBHRICKBRCBCCHHMCDMedian
NameRed Robi.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.CCH McDonald. 
1M Rtn-14.4%-13.3%4.9%1.7%126.6%4.4%3.1%
3M Rtn-35.9%-0.4%-29.4%---2.2%-15.8%
6M Rtn-37.7%18.5%-37.8%---0.1%-18.9%
12M Rtn-26.6%37.8%-50.0%--6.9%-9.9%
3Y Rtn-50.8%112.9%-71.6%--20.6%-15.1%
1M Excs Rtn-14.3%-13.2%4.9%1.7%126.7%4.5%3.1%
3M Excs Rtn-40.2%-6.1%-35.6%---7.7%-21.6%
6M Excs Rtn-52.4%3.8%-52.5%---14.8%-33.6%
12M Excs Rtn-38.4%33.1%-65.2%---6.5%-22.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-121.9%47.2%-143.8%---51.3%-86.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Restaurant revenue1,2741,2301,1388541,290
Franchise revenue161917917
Gift card breakage1014557
Other revenue32211
Total1,3031,2661,1628691,315


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,182,061
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120257.8%
Average Daily Volume406,945
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.36
Basic Shares Quantity17,799,000
Short % of Basic Shares12.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025814202510-Q 7/13/2025
3312025529202510-Q 4/20/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/29/2024
93020241106202410-Q 10/6/2024
6302024822202410-Q 7/14/2024
3312024529202410-Q 4/21/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231103202310-Q 10/1/2023
6302023817202310-Q 7/9/2023
4302023524202310-Q 4/16/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/25/2022
93020221102202210-Q 10/2/2022
6302022810202210-Q 7/10/2022
4302022526202210-Q 4/17/2022
12312021310202210-K 12/26/2021
93020211110202110-Q 10/3/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Wilson Joshua ToddCHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER11182025Sell4.156,01524,962811,271Form
1Martin Christopher Ross8252025Buy6.1418,351112,61810,023,135Form
2Ackil Anthony S6232025Buy5.0314,91074,997522,124Form
3Hart Gerard JohanPRESIDENT AND CEO3252025Sell4.1610,41843,3392,349,784Form
4Mussetter Sarah A.CHIEF LEGAL OFFICER3252025Sell4.161,1084,609236,508Form