Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.06 | Market Cap: $72.3 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.06Market Cap: $72.3 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -106%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -122% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 484% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.5% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -56% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -106%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -122% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 484% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.5% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -56% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
RRGB Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) stock experienced a decline of approximately 37.5%. This movement can be attributed to several key factors. On August 29, 2025, RRGB closed at $6.48. By December 4, 2025, the stock was trading around $4.02.
1. Weak Q3 2025 Financial Performance: Red Robin reported a decrease in total revenues to $265.1 million for the fiscal third quarter ended October 5, 2025, marking a $9.5 million decline year-over-year. Comparable restaurant revenue also decreased by 1.2%, or 1.3% when excluding deferred loyalty revenue.
2. Net Loss and Missed EPS Forecast: The company recorded a net loss of $18.4 million in Q3 2025. On an adjusted basis, the loss per share was $0.70, which slightly missed the analyst forecast of a -$0.68 loss per share.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RRGB Return | -42% | -14% | -66% | 123% | -56% | -27% | -88% |
| Peers Return | 20% | 31% | 4% | 1% | 8% | -6% | 68% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RRGB Win Rate | 33% | 33% | 33% | 58% | 42% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 32% | 35% | 30% | 25% | 27% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RRGB Max Drawdown | -84% | -21% | -67% | 0% | -76% | -53% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -3% | -15% | -10% | -14% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BH, RICK, BRCB, CCHH, MCD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RRGB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -86.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 663.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -86.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 616.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 355 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -65.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 186.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -79.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 397.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1565 days | 1480 days |
Compare to BH, RICK, BRCB, CCHH, MCD
In The Past
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers's stock fell -86.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/15/2021. A -86.9% loss requires a 663.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Would You Still Hold Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Stock If It Fell Another 30%? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to RRGB. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Red Robin Gourmet Burgers
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 24.93 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.3 |
| Rev LTM | 811 |
| Op Inc LTM | 35 |
| FCF LTM | 57 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 41 |
| CFO LTM | 79 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 68 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -0.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 23.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.3 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/EBIT | 13.5 |
| P/E | 23.0 |
| P/CFO | 5.6 |
| Total Yield | 3.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -15.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -18.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -9.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | -15.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -21.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -33.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -22.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -86.6% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8142025 | 10-Q 7/13/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5292025 | 10-Q 4/20/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/29/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 10/6/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8222024 | 10-Q 7/14/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5292024 | 10-Q 4/21/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 10/1/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8172023 | 10-Q 7/9/2023 |
| 4302023 | 5242023 | 10-Q 4/16/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/25/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 10/2/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8102022 | 10-Q 7/10/2022 |
| 4302022 | 5262022 | 10-Q 4/17/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3102022 | 10-K 12/26/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11102021 | 10-Q 10/3/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Wilson Joshua Todd | CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | 11182025 | Sell | 4.15 | 6,015 | 24,962 | 811,271 | Form |
| 1 | Martin Christopher Ross | 8252025 | Buy | 6.14 | 18,351 | 112,618 | 10,023,135 | Form | |
| 2 | Ackil Anthony S | 6232025 | Buy | 5.03 | 14,910 | 74,997 | 522,124 | Form | |
| 3 | Hart Gerard Johan | PRESIDENT AND CEO | 3252025 | Sell | 4.16 | 10,418 | 43,339 | 2,349,784 | Form |
| 4 | Mussetter Sarah A. | CHIEF LEGAL OFFICER | 3252025 | Sell | 4.16 | 1,108 | 4,609 | 236,508 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |