Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB)
Market Price (5/8/2026): $3.69 | Market Cap: $66.3 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB)
Market Price (5/8/2026): $3.69Market Cap: $66.3 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -46% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 9.4% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -96%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -150% Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.71, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 751% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.7% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -39% Key risksRRGB key risks include [1] declining guest traffic and same-store sales and [2] high debt levels resulting in negative shareholder equity. |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -46% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 9.4% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -96%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -150% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.71, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 751% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.7% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -39% |
| Key risksRRGB key risks include [1] declining guest traffic and same-store sales and [2] high debt levels resulting in negative shareholder equity. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Mixed Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results: Red Robin reported its Q4 2025 earnings on February 25, 2026, which presented a mixed financial picture. The company missed analyst consensus estimates for earnings per share (EPS), posting a loss of $0.41 per share against an estimated loss of $0.28. However, it surpassed revenue expectations, reporting $269.04 million compared to estimates of $264.26 million. Additionally, Red Robin achieved a 53% growth in full-year adjusted EBITDA, reaching $69.7 million, and improved its restaurant-level operating profit margin by 190 basis points for the year. This combination of an EPS miss with revenue beat and operational improvements likely contributed to investor indecision, preventing a strong directional move in the stock.
2. Strategic Restructuring with Ongoing Restaurant Closures: The company's strategy includes continued efforts to rationalize its restaurant footprint, with plans to close 20 additional underperforming locations in 2026, building on approximately 50 closures over the past three years. While aimed at improving profitability, these closures can signal underlying operational challenges and potentially dampen investor enthusiasm. This strategic restructuring, which involves both cost-cutting through closures and efforts to drive efficiency, created a cautious outlook for investors.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.6% change in RRGB stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -1.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 3.73 | 3.67 | -1.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,226 | 1,210 | -1.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 18 | 18 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.6% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RRGB | -1.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 39.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.9% | 45.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -27.5% change in RRGB stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -25.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.06 | 3.67 | -27.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,236 | 1,210 | -2.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.1 | -25.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 18 | 18 | -0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -27.5% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RRGB | -27.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 36.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | 0.3% | 38.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 25.7% change in RRGB stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 45.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.92 | 3.67 | 25.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,249 | 1,210 | -3.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.0 | 0.1 | 45.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 16 | 18 | -11.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 25.7% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RRGB | 25.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 27.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | 22.5% | 26.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -71.9% change in RRGB stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -66.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.07 | 3.67 | -71.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,266 | 1,210 | -4.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.2 | 0.1 | -66.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 16 | 18 | -11.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -71.9% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RRGB | -71.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 19.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | 66.2% | 23.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RRGB Return | -14% | -66% | 123% | -56% | -26% | -9% | -81% |
| Peers Return | 1% | -12% | 21% | 51% | 7% | 1% | 77% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 96% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RRGB Win Rate | 33% | 33% | 58% | 42% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 38% | 53% | 60% | 45% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RRGB Max Drawdown | -21% | -67% | 0% | -76% | -53% | -36% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -30% | -13% | -18% | -20% | -10% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: EAT, DIN, BJRI, CAKE, TXRH.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/7/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RRGB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -46.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 36 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -20.5% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.7% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 64 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -14.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -85.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 602.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 355 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -32.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.4% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 812 days | 105 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -40.4% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.6% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 164 days | 123 days |
In The Past
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers's stock fell -46.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 86.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | RRGB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -46.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 36 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -20.5% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.7% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 64 days | 18 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -85.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 602.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 355 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -32.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.4% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 812 days | 105 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -40.4% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.6% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 164 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -36.3% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.9% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 275 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -73.2% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 272.8% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 910 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers's stock fell -46.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 86.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Like a Chili's or Applebee's, but specializing in gourmet burgers.
Think of it as a full-service, sit-down version of a premium burger chain like Shake Shack or Five Guys.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Restaurant Services: Operating full-service and casual-dining restaurants across the United States and Canada.
- Gourmet Burgers: Specializing in a variety of gourmet burgers, which are a primary menu offering.
- Shareable Pizzas: Providing shareable pizzas as a distinct menu option.
- Entrees and Appetizers: Offering a diverse selection of appetizers, salads, soups, sandwiches, seafood, and other main course entrees.
- Desserts: Serving various desserts to complement meals.
- Beverages: A wide range of drinks including milkshakes, alcoholic, and non-alcoholic specialty beverages.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) sells primarily to individual consumers rather than other businesses. The company operates full-service, casual-dining restaurants that directly serve food and beverages to its patrons. Here are up to three categories of customers that Red Robin serves:
-
Families: Red Robin's casual atmosphere, diverse menu that includes kid-friendly options, and focus on comfort food like burgers and milkshakes make it a popular destination for family meals and outings.
-
Young Adults and Friends Groups: The restaurant appeals to younger demographics and groups of friends looking for a relaxed setting to enjoy burgers, appetizers, specialty drinks, and alcoholic beverages.
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General Casual Diners: This broad category includes individuals and couples seeking a comfortable, familiar, and satisfying meal experience for lunch or dinner, often looking for American classic dishes in a sit-down environment.
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Dave Pace, President and Chief Executive Officer
Dave Pace has served as President and Chief Executive Officer of Red Robin since April 2025, and as a member of the Board of Directors since August 2019. Prior to his current role, he was the Chair of the Board of Directors. Pace brings 35 years of leadership experience in the food, beverage, and retail industries. From 2020 to 2023, he was Co-Chief Executive Officer and director of Tastemaker Acquisition Corporation, a special purpose acquisition company. From 2016 to 2018, he served as Chief Executive Officer of Jamba Juice, where he successfully repositioned the brand and led its strategic sale. He was also President of Carrabba's Italian Grill from 2014 to 2016, and Executive Vice President and Chief Resource Officer at Bloomin' Brands from 2010 to 2014. Earlier in his career, Pace held leadership positions at Starbucks, PepsiCo, and Yum! Brands. He currently serves as the independent Chair of the board of directors of Farmer Bros. Co. and as a director of Authentic Restaurant Brands, a restaurant portfolio company of Garnett Station Partners.
Chris Meyer, Interim Chief Financial Officer
Chris Meyer was named Interim Chief Financial Officer in December 2025. In this role, he is responsible for all Red Robin's financial disciplines, including accounting, financial planning & analysis, tax, treasury, and investor relations.
Jesse Griffith, Chief Operations Officer
Jesse Griffith has served as Chief Operations Officer since November 2025. He joined Red Robin as Senior Vice President, Operations in March 2023. Before joining Red Robin, Griffith was Vice President of Operations at Torchy's Tacos, where he contributed to the company's doubling of restaurant unit growth.
Humera Kassem, Chief People Officer
Humera Kassem has served as Chief People Officer since September 2025. As CPO, she oversees Red Robin's organizational strategy and vision, focusing on strengthening the company's culture and advancing its First Choice Plan. Kassem has over 30 years of experience in cultivating organizational culture and talent development across various industries, most recently serving as Chief People Officer at Dave & Buster's.
Sarah Mussetter, Chief Legal Officer and Secretary
Sarah Mussetter serves as Chief Legal Officer and Secretary. She rejoined Red Robin in December 2022, having previously spent 10 years with the company.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) include declining guest traffic and intense competition, high debt levels and financial health concerns, and rising labor and ingredient costs.
1. Declining Guest Traffic and Intense Competition
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers faces a significant challenge with declining guest traffic and comparable restaurant sales, operating in a highly competitive restaurant industry. The company anticipated a comparable restaurant sales decline of 3% to 4% for the remainder of fiscal 2025, following a 0.3% decrease in comparable restaurant revenue and a 3.8% drop in guest traffic in fiscal year 2025. Red Robin struggles to attract and retain customers due to intense competition from various segments, including fast-food chains like McDonald's and Burger King, higher-end fast-casual chains such as Shake Shack and Five Guys, and direct casual dining rivals like Chili's and Applebee's. This positioning, described as "stuck in the middle"—neither fast enough nor high-end enough—has led to a "discount spiral" and an "identity crisis," contributing to flat same-store sales and weak demand.
2. High Debt Levels and Financial Health Concerns
Red Robin's financial health is a significant risk, characterized by high debt levels and challenges in achieving profitability. As of December 2025, the company had $526.6 million in debt, substantially exceeding its $30.87 million in cash, and its 9x net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio indicates it is "overleveraged". The company faces considerable refinancing and execution risk, with approximately $170.2 million in total borrowings as of December 28, 2025, and credit facility maturities extended only six months to September 3, 2027. Refinancing difficulties or breaches of loan covenants could materially affect Red Robin's liquidity and operations. Furthermore, the company's Altman Z-Score of 1.42 places it in a "distress zone," suggesting a possibility of bankruptcy within the next two years. Red Robin's profitability is also a concern, with an operating margin of 1.1% and a negative net margin of -4.31%, and its earnings per share (EPS) declined by 19% annually over the last six years, outstripping revenue decline. In 2020, the company raised "substantial doubt" about its ability to continue as a going concern due to difficulties in meeting equity requirements for a revised credit facility.
3. Rising Costs (Labor and Ingredients)
Red Robin is significantly impacted by increasing operational costs, particularly labor and ingredients, which put a squeeze on margins. The company continues to experience "labor shortages and higher labor costs," adversely affecting its financial and operational performance. Inflation remains a primary headwind, with the cost of goods sold (COGS) being a persistent pressure point. Beef, a critical ingredient representing about 15% of total COGS in fiscal 2024, saw costs increase approximately 25% year-over-year in Q3 2025, a trend expected to continue. This has led to an increase in the cost of sales as a percentage of overall sales. Additionally, continuous, costly compliance efforts are required to adhere to thousands of local health, safety, and operational regulations.
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The emergence and rapid growth of "ghost kitchens" and virtual restaurant brands pose a clear threat. These delivery-only operations leverage existing or shared kitchen spaces to prepare food for various brands, often focusing on popular categories like burgers and pizzas, without the overhead of a traditional brick-and-mortar dining room. This business model allows them to offer competitive pricing, greater flexibility in menu adaptation, and optimized operations for takeout and delivery, directly challenging Red Robin's significant off-premise sales segment and potentially eroding market share among consumers prioritizing convenience and value for delivered food.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The addressable markets for Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) main products and services are primarily within the full-service and casual dining restaurant segments, with a strong focus on burgers, across the United States and Canada.
Market Sizes:
- Burger Restaurants (U.S.): The market size for burger restaurants in the U.S. was estimated at $173.6 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $177.7 billion in 2026.
- Full-Service Restaurants (U.S.): The U.S. full-service restaurant market is estimated at approximately US$422.1 billion in 2024. It was valued at USD 362.15 billion in 2025 and is estimated to grow to USD 405.28 billion in 2026.
- Full-Service Restaurants (North America): The North America Full Service Restaurants Market is projected to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.5% between 2025 and 2032. The full-service restaurant segment in the United States and Canada has experienced substantial growth in recent years.
- Casual Dining Restaurants (Global/Implied North America): Casual dining restaurants constitute a significant portion of the full-service restaurant market, holding a 72% market share. Globally, the casual dining restaurant segment is expected to reach US$1.1 trillion by the end of the analysis period (2024-2030), growing at a CAGR of 3.0%.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) anticipates several key drivers to fuel its revenue growth over the next two to three years:
- Enhanced Guest Experience and Food Quality: The company's "First Choice" and "North Star" strategic plans prioritize significant investments in service and food quality. Initiatives such as improved operational execution, better hospitality, and specific enhancements like flat-top grills for juicier burgers, are aimed at elevating the overall guest experience, which is expected to drive increased customer traffic and average check.
- Relaunched Loyalty Program Engagement: The successful relaunch of the Loyalty 2.0 program is a major focus for Red Robin. This program is designed to foster greater customer engagement, increase visit frequency, and encourage higher spending among its growing member base, thereby contributing to sustained revenue growth.
- Targeted Marketing and Value Offerings: Red Robin is implementing a data-driven, micro-targeted marketing strategy to attract both new and lapsed customers. This includes strategic promotional offers and the "Big Yummm" value platform, which aims to drive trial and growth in average check, ultimately boosting guest traffic.
- Strategic Menu Price Adjustments: While emphasizing value, Red Robin plans to utilize menu price increases as a direct lever for revenue growth. For instance, a 3.2% price increase was implemented with a new menu launch in January 2026, which is expected to be a primary pricing driver for fiscal year 2026.
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Share Repurchases
- Red Robin's Board of Directors authorized an additional $635.0 million for share repurchases on September 17, 2025, supplementing a previous $500.0 million authorization from March 17, 2020, with neither having an expiration date.
- In 2025, the company repurchased 1.4 million shares at a cost of $252.4 million.
- As of December 31, 2025, the remaining share repurchase authorization stood at $924.7 million.
Share Issuance
- In November 2025, Red Robin announced an "at-the-market equity offering" program, allowing for the potential sale of up to $40 million in common stock for purposes such as working capital and debt repayment.
- This at-the-market program was subsequently terminated, and no shares were issued under it.
Capital Expenditures
- For fiscal year 2026, Red Robin anticipates capital expenditures to be between $25 million and $30 million. These expenditures are primarily allocated towards restaurant refreshes, including "light-touch" updates, new server handheld technology, and upgraded Ziosk tabletop devices to improve efficiency and service.
- In fiscal year 2025, capital expenditures were approximately $30 million, primarily supporting restaurant refreshes and addressing deferred maintenance in about 20 pilot restaurants.
- Fiscal year 2024 investments focused on maintaining existing restaurants and technology infrastructure.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| With Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
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Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 50.84 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| Rev LTM | 2,606 |
| Op Inc LTM | 198 |
| FCF LTM | 126 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 98 |
| CFO LTM | 234 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 191 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 13.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 25.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| P/S | 0.7 |
| P/Op Inc | 10.6 |
| P/EBIT | 16.5 |
| P/E | 18.3 |
| P/CFO | 7.1 |
| Total Yield | 6.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -7.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 17.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 16.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 45.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -15.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 9.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -13.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -41.2% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $3.67 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/19/2002 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -50.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $3.63 | $4.79 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 1.2% | -23.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 95.4% | 97.2% |
| Downside Capture | 1.14 | 0.52 |
| Upside Capture | 177.45 | 106.32 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 38.8% | 27.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.30 | 2.92 | 2.50 | 2.02 | 2.12 | 0.99 |
| Up Beta | 3.26 | 3.67 | 3.25 | 3.22 | 3.05 | 0.72 |
| Down Beta | 1.67 | 2.95 | 4.18 | 2.55 | 3.79 | 1.30 |
| Up Capture | 341% | 146% | 195% | 89% | 133% | 37% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 15 | 27 | 51 | 107 | 331 |
| Down Capture | 46% | 316% | 176% | 164% | 113% | 108% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 26 | 35 | 72 | 135 | 404 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RRGB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RRGB | 51.2% | 97.0% | 0.80 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 22.4% | 18.7% | 0.95 | 25.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.6% | 12.5% | 1.86 | 26.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 37.0% | 27.1% | 1.14 | 4.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.7% | 18.0% | 2.12 | -9.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.9% | 13.5% | 0.65 | 21.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -16.3% | 42.1% | -0.31 | 8.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RRGB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RRGB | -35.8% | 75.0% | -0.29 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.9% | 23.8% | 0.25 | 33.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 30.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.1% | 17.9% | 0.96 | 2.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.1% | 19.1% | 0.60 | 2.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.3% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 29.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.0% | 56.0% | 0.34 | 13.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RRGB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RRGB | -24.3% | 73.4% | -0.06 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 13.0% | 22.0% | 0.54 | 38.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 35.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.5% | 16.0% | 0.70 | 1.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.4% | 17.8% | 0.44 | 13.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 35.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.2% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 11.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/25/2026 | 33.1% | 25.6% | -21.2% |
| 11/5/2025 | 3.2% | -6.0% | -16.1% |
| 8/13/2025 | 1.3% | 7.5% | 12.3% |
| 5/29/2025 | 62.9% | 93.9% | 85.0% |
| 2/26/2025 | 34.5% | 6.9% | -14.2% |
| 11/6/2024 | -15.0% | -15.8% | -8.7% |
| 8/22/2024 | -8.2% | -23.9% | -7.4% |
| 5/29/2024 | 14.9% | 30.0% | 12.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 12 | 10 |
| # Negative | 9 | 12 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 14.1% | 24.3% | 14.6% |
| Median Negative | -13.0% | -11.9% | -12.5% |
| Max Positive | 62.9% | 93.9% | 85.0% |
| Max Negative | -18.1% | -23.9% | -25.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/22/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/17/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 05/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 05/26/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/25/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Comparable Restaurant Revenue growth | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | ||||
| 2026 Restaurant level operating profit | 0.13 | 4.0% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 0.12 for 2025 | ||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 70.00 Mil | 71.50 Mil | 73.00 Mil | 10.0% | Raised | Guidance: 65.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | 25.00 Mil | 27.50 Mil | 30.00 Mil | -16.7% | Lowered | Guidance: 33.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/10/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Comparable restaurant sales | -0.03 | -25.0% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: -0.04 for Q2 2025 | ||
| 2025 Total revenue | 1.20 Bil | ||||||
| 2025 Restaurant level operating profit | 0.12 | ||||||
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 65.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2025 Capital expenditures | 33.00 Mil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Griffith, Jesse | Chief Operations Officer | Direct | Sell | 4082026 | 3.03 | 1,008 | 3,053 | 114,551 | Form |
| 2 | Griffith, Jesse | Chief Operations Officer | Direct | Sell | 3242026 | 3.12 | 839 | 2,618 | 131,383 | Form |
| 3 | Mussetter, Sarah A | CHIEF LEGAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 3242026 | 3.12 | 2,913 | 9,089 | 333,491 | Form |
| 4 | Mussetter, Sarah A | CHIEF LEGAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 3172026 | 3.21 | 4,037 | 12,962 | 352,549 | Form |
| 5 | Griffith, Jesse | Chief Operations Officer | Direct | Sell | 3172026 | 3.21 | 1,402 | 4,502 | 137,901 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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