Tearsheet

Rapid7 (RPD)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $15.98 | Market Cap: $1.0 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software

Rapid7 (RPD)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $15.98
Market Cap: $1.0 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Systems Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -116%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -125%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.3%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -29%
  Key risks
RPD key risks include [1] decelerating growth driven by a decline in its core Vulnerability Management business, Show more.
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 13%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 46%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cybersecurity. Themes include Software Security, Cloud Security, and Endpoint Protection.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -29%
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 13%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 46%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cybersecurity. Themes include Software Security, Cloud Security, and Endpoint Protection.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -116%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -125%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.3%
7 Key risks
RPD key risks include [1] decelerating growth driven by a decline in its core Vulnerability Management business, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

RPD Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback


Between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025, Rapid7 (RPD) experienced a significant stock price decline, with several key factors contributing to the -24.5% movement.

1. Rapid7's Q3 2025 Earnings Report and Weak Q4 Guidance. Rapid7 reported its Q3 2025 earnings on November 4, 2025, beating analyst expectations for both revenue and adjusted EPS. Revenue reached $218 million against estimates of $215.9 million, and adjusted EPS was $0.57 compared to a forecasted $0.46. However, the company's Q4 2025 revenue guidance of $215 million (at the midpoint) fell below analysts' estimates of $217.9 million. This weaker-than-expected forward guidance likely raised investor concerns about future growth prospects, leading to a negative market reaction.

2. Reduction in 2025 Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) Target. Management significantly reduced its 2025 ARR target to reflect a "higher confidence outlook" based on year-to-date experience and potential impacts of ongoing organizational changes. The company acknowledged ongoing timing variability within large deal pipelines and emphasized the need for more predictable execution. This revision of ARR targets indicated a more conservative outlook and contributed to investor unease regarding the company's growth trajectory.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
RPD Return61%31%-71%68%-30%-61%-72%
Peers Return116%43%-31%74%15%-0%325%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
RPD Win Rate75%50%33%67%42%17% 
Peers Win Rate62%70%35%68%53%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
RPD Max Drawdown-40%-20%-77%-5%-42%-67% 
Peers Max Drawdown-31%-18%-36%-7%-17%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PANW, CRWD, TENB, QLYS, FTNT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventRPDS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-80.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven422.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-47.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven89.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven157 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-32.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven47.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven335 days120 days

Compare to GEN, PATH, S, CVLT, AGPU


In The Past

Rapid7's stock fell -80.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/8/2021. A -80.9% loss requires a 422.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Rapid7 (RPD)

Better Bets than Rapid7 (RPD)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to RPD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.6%9.6%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.1%10.1%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.5%13.5%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.1%9.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%0.0%
RPD_2282025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG02282025RPDRapid7Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-28.8%-46.2%-53.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.6%9.6%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.1%10.1%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.5%13.5%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.1%9.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%0.0%
RPD_2282025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG02282025RPDRapid7Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-28.8%-46.2%-53.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Rapid7

Peers to compare with:

Financials

RPDPANWCRWDTENBQLYSFTNTMedian
NameRapid7 Palo Alt.CrowdStr.Tenable Qualys Fortinet  
Mkt Price15.64183.44470.0224.66141.9579.38110.66
Mkt Cap1.0138.3118.13.05.160.032.5
Rev LTM8599,5574,5659756536,5552,770
Op Inc LTM171,265-392-52132,033115
FCF LTM1573,6911,1042482712,028688
FCF 3Y Avg1213,2311,0231812431,919633
CFO LTM1803,9771,4602652812,448871
CFO 3Y Avg1443,4281,3121942552,231784

Growth & Margins

RPDPANWCRWDTENBQLYSFTNTMedian
NameRapid7 Palo Alt.CrowdStr.Tenable Qualys Fortinet  
Rev Chg LTM3.1%15.3%22.0%11.1%10.1%14.8%12.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg9.7%18.1%31.1%14.6%11.7%17.1%15.9%
Rev Chg Q1.5%15.7%22.2%11.2%10.4%14.4%12.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.4%3.6%5.2%2.7%2.5%3.4%3.0%
Op Mgn LTM1.9%13.2%-8.6%-0.5%32.5%31.0%7.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-0.2%10.2%-4.0%-3.3%30.3%27.6%5.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.8%-0.2%0.1%1.0%1.5%0.1%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM21.0%41.6%32.0%27.2%43.1%37.3%34.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg17.4%41.1%35.8%21.9%43.0%38.6%37.2%
FCF/Rev LTM18.2%38.6%24.2%25.4%41.6%30.9%28.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg14.6%38.8%28.0%20.4%40.9%33.3%30.7%

Valuation

RPDPANWCRWDTENBQLYSFTNTMedian
NameRapid7 Palo Alt.CrowdStr.Tenable Qualys Fortinet  
Mkt Cap1.0138.3118.13.05.160.032.5
P/S1.414.525.93.67.39.78.5
P/EBIT29.9--578.6334.422.428.028.0
P/E54.3123.8-376.0-104.825.233.929.6
P/CFO6.834.880.913.316.925.921.4
Total Yield1.8%0.8%-0.3%-1.0%4.0%2.9%1.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg7.0%-1.6%4.3%4.9%3.5%4.3%
D/E0.8-0.00.10.00.00.0
Net D/E0.5--0.00.0-0.1-0.0-0.0

Returns

RPDPANWCRWDTENBQLYSFTNTMedian
NameRapid7 Palo Alt.CrowdStr.Tenable Qualys Fortinet  
1M Rtn16.2%-9.6%-11.3%-5.4%1.8%-3.1%-4.2%
3M Rtn-19.8%-9.7%5.5%-17.3%7.4%-1.1%-5.4%
6M Rtn-33.5%-8.2%-3.1%-24.7%3.5%-21.3%-14.7%
12M Rtn-59.9%-8.8%24.9%-40.6%-2.7%-18.7%-13.8%
3Y Rtn-57.9%143.0%321.5%-34.5%25.1%52.9%39.0%
1M Excs Rtn15.5%-10.3%-12.0%-6.1%1.1%-3.9%-5.0%
3M Excs Rtn-23.8%-12.2%-7.8%-20.2%3.2%-3.3%-10.0%
6M Excs Rtn-45.9%-20.6%-15.5%-37.1%-8.9%-33.6%-27.1%
12M Excs Rtn-71.7%-17.8%16.6%-51.8%-14.9%-30.0%-23.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-125.1%58.3%228.1%-106.2%-49.9%-20.4%-35.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Product subscriptions740643493372221
Professional services3838352929
Other 4812
Perpetual software licenses   10 
Maintenance and support    37
Term and perpetual software licenses    39
Total778685535411327


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,138,382
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-15.2%
Average Daily Volume1,194,481
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.46
Basic Shares Quantity64,967,114
Short % of Basic Shares6.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/4/2025-19.9%-20.3%-10.3%
8/7/2025-9.8%5.7%3.9%
5/12/2025-8.2%-13.5%-10.2%
2/12/2025-5.4%-11.2%-23.9%
11/6/2024-0.8%0.2%4.5%
8/6/20249.9%10.4%9.6%
5/7/2024-17.0%-16.8%-21.4%
2/7/20243.1%6.3%-5.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive91212
# Negative151212
Median Positive3.6%5.6%5.3%
Median Negative-6.0%-10.9%-18.9%
Max Positive15.6%22.9%23.5%
Max Negative-22.7%-32.3%-34.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025808202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025512202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023226202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231106202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Brown Marc Evan 11252025Buy15.213,00045,630789,125Form
1Murphy Scott MChief Accounting Officer11252025Sell13.971,37019,139342,014Form
2JANA Partners Management, LP11252025Buy14.13150,0002,119,50094,227,375Form
3Thomas Corey E.CEO11242025Buy13.8214,500200,3908,223,812Form
4BURNS MIKE 11242025Buy13.802,00027,60069,000Form