Tearsheet

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $12.84 | Market Cap: $270.6 Mil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Mortgage REITs

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $12.84
Market Cap: $270.6 Mil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Mortgage REITs

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 29%, Dividend Yield is 16%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 25%, FCF Yield is 8.9%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -50%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.4%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 21%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, and Cannabis Industry Growth. Themes include Private Credit, and Cannabis Finance & Real Estate.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 29%, Dividend Yield is 16%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 25%, FCF Yield is 8.9%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 21%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, and Cannabis Industry Growth. Themes include Private Credit, and Cannabis Finance & Real Estate.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -50%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.4%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

REFI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI) experienced a -6.9% stock movement in the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, influenced by the following key factors:

1. Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Miss on EPS: Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings on November 4, 2025, revealing an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.42, which missed the forecasted $0.48 by 12.5%. This negative surprise in EPS likely contributed to downward pressure on the stock. However, revenue for the same quarter exceeded expectations, reaching $15.25 million against an anticipated $14.04 million.

2. Decline in Net Interest Income: The company's net interest income for the third quarter of 2025 was $13.7 million, a 5.1% decrease from $14.4 million in the second quarter of 2025. This reduction in net interest income can be a concern for investors as it directly impacts profitability.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
REFI Return--3%24%9%-10%24%
Peers Return-14%10%-19%2%6%2%-15%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
REFI Win Rate- 50%67%42%40% 
Peers Win Rate53%57%50%45%55%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
REFI Max Drawdown---10%-14%-4%-14% 
Peers Max Drawdown-64%-6%-34%-22%-11%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DX, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventREFIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-35.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven55.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to DX, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY


In The Past

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance's stock fell -35.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/28/2022. A -35.7% loss requires a 55.5% gain to breakeven.

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About Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI)

Better Bets than Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to REFI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance

Peers to compare with:

Financials

REFIDXIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameChicago .Dynex Ca.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
Mkt Price12.7813.898.192.784.7322.8210.48
Mkt Cap0.31.90.60.50.115.00.5
Rev LTM55230722271,70364
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM2412215947251,953140
FCF 3Y Avg267119632951,260133
CFO LTM2412215947252,857140
CFO 3Y Avg267119632951,976133

Growth & Margins

REFIDXIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameChicago .Dynex Ca.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
Rev Chg LTM-1.0%87.1%-29.9%-73.3%-3.5%473.5%-2.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg13.4%63.4%241.0%-52.8%2.5%143.3%38.4%
Rev Chg Q-5.4%309.0%27.8%-29.1%-9.2%637.1%11.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.4%113.8%21.1%-45.4%-2.2%81.6%9.9%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM43.6%52.8%220.1%2,181.7%71.0%167.8%119.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg46.8%77.6%790.7%851.6%70.9%-77.6%
FCF/Rev LTM43.6%52.8%220.1%2,181.7%71.0%114.7%92.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg46.8%77.6%790.7%851.6%70.8%-77.6%

Valuation

REFIDXIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameChicago .Dynex Ca.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
Mkt Cap0.31.90.60.50.115.00.5
P/S4.97.37.129.38.87.87.5
P/EBIT-------
P/E7.59.09.6-2.011.98.99.0
P/CFO11.213.73.21.312.44.67.9
Total Yield29.3%11.1%10.4%-27.7%16.8%11.3%11.2%
Dividend Yield16.0%0.0%0.0%21.4%8.4%0.0%4.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg9.2%6.8%40.1%36.2%8.5%11.4%10.3%
D/E0.40.00.06.00.22.20.3
Net D/E0.3-0.3-0.15.70.22.20.3

Returns

REFIDXIVRRCLOANNLYMedian
NameChicago .Dynex Ca.Invesco .Ready Ca.Manhatta.Annaly C. 
1M Rtn-2.3%5.9%8.6%-4.1%-4.8%7.1%1.8%
3M Rtn-6.1%14.6%8.1%-32.2%-10.4%9.9%1.0%
6M Rtn-4.7%24.9%19.5%-29.7%-3.4%29.0%8.1%
12M Rtn-8.4%30.4%19.1%-56.6%-6.1%33.1%6.5%
3Y Rtn20.6%60.5%3.7%-68.6%5.7%58.4%13.1%
1M Excs Rtn-2.3%6.0%8.7%-4.1%-4.8%7.2%1.9%
3M Excs Rtn-13.0%7.8%2.0%-38.0%-15.6%3.0%-5.5%
6M Excs Rtn-19.4%10.1%4.8%-44.5%-18.1%14.3%-6.7%
12M Excs Rtn-22.1%15.8%4.5%-70.9%-17.7%18.2%-6.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-49.8%-8.7%-65.4%-141.0%-64.9%-8.9%-57.3%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity637,960
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-0.9%
Average Daily Volume98,462
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.48
Basic Shares Quantity21,074,771
Short % of Basic Shares3.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024312202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023312202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022309202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022512202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021414202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Papastavrou Jason D 10162025Buy12.6210,000126,150625,023Form
1Kite DavidChief Operating Officer10162025Buy12.312,50030,775701,867Form
2Konigsberg Brandon 10162025Buy12.337,00086,296339,587Form
3Sack PeterCo-Chief Executive Officer10162025Buy12.438,150101,3041,010,025Form
4Mazarakis JohnExecutive Chairman10162025Buy12.758,000102,0005,311,739Form