Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI)
Market Price (7/15/2026): $10.71 | Market Cap: $225.8 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Mortgage REITs
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI)
Market Price (7/15/2026): $10.71Market Cap: $225.8 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Mortgage REITs
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 31%, Dividend Yield is 18%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 27%, FCF Yield is 11% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, and Cannabis Industry Growth. Themes include Private Credit, and Cannabis Finance & Real Estate. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -41%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -62% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.9% Key risksREFI key risks include [1] its dependence on the cannabis industry, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 31%, Dividend Yield is 18%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 27%, FCF Yield is 11% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, and Cannabis Industry Growth. Themes include Private Credit, and Cannabis Finance & Real Estate. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -41%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -62% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.9% |
| Key risksREFI key risks include [1] its dependence on the cannabis industry, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI) stock has remained largely at the same level since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Performance and Management's Optimistic Outlook.
Despite some reports of Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI) announcing fiscal Q1 2026 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.23, which was significantly below the consensus estimate of $0.4366, the stock demonstrated resilience, experiencing a mild positive reaction of 1.15% to 2.17% following its May 7, 2026 earnings release. This market response suggests investors may have concentrated on other positive aspects of the report, such as the company's commitment to its dividend policy and a solid liquidity position of approximately $54 million. Furthermore, management provided a constructive outlook during the earnings call, emphasizing a significant regulatory tailwind from a Department of Justice (DOJ) rescheduling action and a substantial $482 million pipeline, with roughly $133 million backed by real estate.
2. Consistent and Attractive Dividend Payouts.
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance's consistent declaration of a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.47 per share for both fiscal Q1 2026 and fiscal Q2 2026 has been a key factor in its stock stability. The company maintains an attractive forward dividend yield, reported at 16.48% as of June 28, 2026, or 17.36%, and has communicated a target dividend payout ratio of 90%–100% of basic distributable earnings per share for the 2026 tax year. This commitment to returning capital to shareholders helps attract and retain income-focused investors, providing a foundational support for the stock price.
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Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI) stock has remained largely at the same level since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Performance and Management's Optimistic Outlook.
Despite some reports of Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI) announcing fiscal Q1 2026 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.23, which was significantly below the consensus estimate of $0.4366, the stock demonstrated resilience, experiencing a mild positive reaction of 1.15% to 2.17% following its May 7, 2026 earnings release. This market response suggests investors may have concentrated on other positive aspects of the report, such as the company's commitment to its dividend policy and a solid liquidity position of approximately $54 million. Furthermore, management provided a constructive outlook during the earnings call, emphasizing a significant regulatory tailwind from a Department of Justice (DOJ) rescheduling action and a substantial $482 million pipeline, with roughly $133 million backed by real estate.
2. Consistent and Attractive Dividend Payouts.
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance's consistent declaration of a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.47 per share for both fiscal Q1 2026 and fiscal Q2 2026 has been a key factor in its stock stability. The company maintains an attractive forward dividend yield, reported at 16.48% as of June 28, 2026, or 17.36%, and has communicated a target dividend payout ratio of 90%–100% of basic distributable earnings per share for the 2026 tax year. This commitment to returning capital to shareholders helps attract and retain income-focused investors, providing a foundational support for the stock price.
3. Resilient Commercial Real Estate Market Conditions.
The broader commercial real estate market provided a stable environment for REFI's operations during the specified period. U.S. commercial real estate fundamentals remained resilient in fiscal Q1 2026, characterized by robust leasing activity despite overall macroeconomic uncertainties. Globally, private real estate values experienced an increase for five consecutive quarters through Q4 2025, with total returns being positive across 20 out of 21 countries in the MSCI index, bolstered by stable income returns. Additionally, transaction volumes saw a 17% year-over-year increase across the U.S., Europe, and Asia Pacific, with pricing stabilizing below 2019 levels. This general market stability helps mitigate risks for commercial mortgage real estate investment trusts like REFI.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -0.8% change in REFI stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -14.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.84 | 10.75 | -0.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 56 | 55 | -0.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 64.8% | 55.6% | -14.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.3 | 7.4 | 15.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 21 | 21 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -0.8% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| REFI | -0.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.6% | 15.7% |
| Sector (XLF) | 13.8% | 15.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -4.6% change in REFI stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -14.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.27 | 10.75 | -4.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 55 | 55 | 0.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 64.8% | 55.6% | -14.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.6 | 7.4 | 10.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 21 | 21 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -4.6% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| REFI | -4.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.6% | 28.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | 3.1% | 31.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -9.8% change in REFI stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -20.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.91 | 10.75 | -9.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 55 | 55 | 1.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 70.3% | 55.6% | -20.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.5 | 7.4 | 13.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 21 | 21 | -1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -9.8% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| REFI | -9.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.7% | 30.8% |
| Sector (XLF) | 8.6% | 32.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 9.0% change in REFI stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 46.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.86 | 10.75 | 9.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 54 | 55 | 2.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 65.1% | 55.6% | -14.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 5.0 | 7.4 | 46.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 18 | 21 | -15.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 9.0% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| REFI | 9.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.6% | 32.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | 74.1% | 37.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| REFI Return | 1% | 3% | 24% | 9% | -9% | -5% | 22% |
| Peers Return | 15% | -23% | 9% | 10% | -12% | -11% | -17% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| REFI Win Rate | 100% | 50% | 67% | 42% | 33% | 43% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 43% | 43% | 55% | 52% | 34% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 57% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| REFI Max Drawdown | - | -26% | -18% | -10% | -18% | -11% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -39% | -33% | -15% | -36% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DX, IVR, RC, LOAN, LFT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/14/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | REFI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -13.3% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.4% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 56 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -12.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 20 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance's stock fell -3.9% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 4.1% gain to breakeven.
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In The Past
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance's stock fell -3.9% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 4.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI)
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (REFI) is a commercial real estate finance company with a distinct specialization. The company's core business involves originating, structuring, and investing in first mortgage loans and other structured financings that are secured by commercial real estate properties. REFI distinguishes itself by primarily serving state-licensed operators and property owners within the rapidly developing cannabis industry.
The company's main offerings are senior loans, which provide critical capital to its target customers in the cannabis sector for their real estate needs. These loans are backed by the underlying commercial properties. As an added aspect of its corporate structure, REFI has elected to be taxed as a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), which means it aims to distribute at least 90% of its taxable income to stockholders to avoid federal corporate income taxes.
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Annaly Capital Management (NLY) for cannabis real estate.
Starwood Property Trust (STWD) for cannabis properties.
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- First Mortgage Loans: Provides primary debt financing secured by commercial real estate properties.
- Alternative Structured Financings: Offers customized debt solutions beyond standard mortgages, also secured by commercial real estate properties.
- Senior Loans to Cannabis Industry: Specializes in providing senior debt to state-licensed cannabis operators and property owners.
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Tony Cappell Co-Chief Executive Officer
Tony Cappell is a Co-founder of Chicago Atlantic and Co-CEO of Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. He possesses over 15 years of experience as a debt investor in the specialty finance sector, having completed more than 150 deals totaling over $5 billion in credit. Before co-founding Chicago Atlantic, Mr. Cappell served as a Managing Director and Head of Underwriting at Stonegate Capital, a private credit investment firm, where he was responsible for credit, underwriting, and the growth strategy of the loan portfolio for lower middle market businesses and emerging brands. His earlier career included roles as a Senior Underwriter at First Midwest Bank and Gibraltar Business Capital.
Peter Sack Co-Chief Executive Officer
Peter Sack is a Managing Partner at Chicago Atlantic and Co-CEO of Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. He is a credit investor and portfolio manager with experience investing across the capital structure. Prior to joining Chicago Atlantic, Mr. Sack was a Principal at BC Partners Credit, where he was involved in sourcing and underwriting across opportunistic and senior lending strategies in various industries, including cannabis-related direct lending. He also managed the portfolio of BC Partners Lending Corporation, a private business development company. Previously, he was an Associate at Atlas Holdings LLC, a private equity firm focused on supporting distressed manufacturing and distribution companies globally. Mr. Sack also serves as Chief Executive Officer of Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc.
Phil Silverman Chief Financial Officer
Phil Silverman serves as the Chief Financial Officer of Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. He is a licensed Certified Public Accountant with over 10 years of finance and accounting experience, specializing in financial reporting, operations, and internal controls for investment management firms. Mr. Silverman was Interim Chief Financial Officer from September 2022 until March 2024, before being appointed CFO in March 2024. From June 2021 to September 2022, he held the positions of Controller of the Company and CFO of Chicago Atlantic Group, L.P. Before Chicago Atlantic, he spent nearly nine years at BDO USA, LLP, as a Senior Manager in the Financial Services and Private Equity group, where he was responsible for audits of private equity and venture capital funds, business development companies, and other asset managers.
John Mazarakis Executive Chairman
John Mazarakis is a Partner at Chicago Atlantic and has served as Executive Chairman since the company's inception. He is an entrepreneur and operator with over 20 years of experience across real estate, retail, and hospitality sectors. Mr. Mazarakis has launched successful companies, built and operated more than 35 restaurants, developed a real estate portfolio exceeding 30 properties, completed over 1 million square feet of commercial real estate development, and executed multiple real estate financing transactions. He also successfully grew a distribution company from $12 million to over $90 million in annual sales in under two years.
Andreas Bodmeier, Ph.D. President
Andreas Bodmeier is a Partner of Chicago Atlantic and serves as President of Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. He brings over 15 years of experience in finance and analytics. Before joining Chicago Atlantic, Dr. Bodmeier co-founded a boutique technology and consulting firm specializing in FX and commodity risk management for multinational corporations, as well as advising on capital structure decisions and investor relations. He also co-founded an SEC-registered online investment adviser for retirement accounts.
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Federal Illegality of Cannabis and Regulatory Uncertainty
Despite state-level legalization, cannabis remains illegal at the federal level in the United States, creating significant legal and operational risks for REFI and its borrowers. Properties used for cannabis-related activities are technically subject to forfeiture by the U.S. government, which could render REFI's mortgage collateral unsecured. Additionally, federally regulated financial institutions are often hesitant to engage with cannabis businesses due to the risk of violating anti-money laundering laws, limiting traditional banking and financing options for REFI's clients and potentially affecting REFI's own access to capital. Any changes in federal or state cannabis regulations, whether favorable or unfavorable, introduce uncertainty and could significantly impact the market for cannabis properties and the operational viability of REFI's borrowers.
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Credit Risk and Borrower Defaults
As a lender, REFI is directly exposed to the risk of its borrowers defaulting on their loans. The cannabis industry faces unique financial challenges, including intense competition that can compress business margins, thereby increasing the likelihood of borrower defaults. In the event of a default, the specialized nature of cannabis real estate can make it difficult to repurpose properties for non-cannabis uses, which could negatively impact the recovery value of collateral. REFI has noted ongoing "credit stress in spots," including loans that are non-accrual or have required workouts, indicating the presence of credit risk within its portfolio.
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Liquidity and Capital Availability
REFI's ability to fund its robust loan pipeline and execute its growth strategy is contingent on sufficient liquidity and access to capital. The company has indicated "constrained liquidity relative to the pipeline," suggesting that limited available cash could restrict its capacity to fund new lending opportunities quickly. While REFI manages its debt and has a strong pipeline, a prolonged period of limited capital availability or increased borrowing costs could impede its ability to originate new loans and expand its business effectively.
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The clear emerging threat to Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI) is the potential for federal regulatory changes regarding cannabis, particularly the passage of legislation like the SAFE Banking Act or outright federal legalization. REFI currently thrives by providing financing to the cannabis industry, a sector largely underserved by traditional banks and financial institutions due to federal illegality. If federal legislation is enacted that allows traditional banks to service cannabis businesses without penalty or legalizes cannabis nationwide, these institutions would likely enter the market. This influx of traditional capital providers, often with lower costs of capital and broader service offerings, would significantly increase competition for REFI, potentially eroding its current competitive advantage, reducing loan yields, and impacting its market share.
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The addressable market for Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI) is primarily within the U.S. cannabis industry, focusing on real estate financing.
The cannabis real estate market in the U.S. represents a significant opportunity, estimated at approximately $100 billion. This market size is for the United States.
More broadly, the U.S. cannabis industry is projected to require between $65.6 billion and $130.7 billion in sustainable growth capital over the next decade to support new and existing cannabis businesses. Furthermore, the U.S. cannabis industry's retail revenue was estimated at $35 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $69 billion by 2031.
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Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key factors:
- Expansion of Lending Opportunities within the Evolving Cannabis Industry: Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance specializes in providing senior loans to state-licensed operators and property owners in the cannabis industry. The company anticipates significant benefits from potential federal regulatory changes, such as the rescheduling of cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III. This policy shift is expected to reduce punitive federal tax burdens, enhance access to capital, and increase investment opportunities for cannabis businesses, thereby expanding the addressable market and demand for REFI's specialized lending services. Management views these regulatory developments as encouraging progress for the industry, leading to a robust pipeline of investment opportunities in states like Maryland, Missouri, and Ohio.
- Execution on a Robust Investment Pipeline and New Loan Originations: The company consistently reports a substantial investment pipeline, which stood at approximately $616 million as of March 2026, indicating strong demand for its financing solutions. Management expresses confidence in its ability to execute on this pipeline, targeting net portfolio growth through new originations. This growth comes from both new borrowers and additional funding to existing portfolio companies, expanding its client base and deepening relationships within its niche market.
- Strategic Portfolio Structuring to Maintain High Yields Amidst Interest Rate Dynamics: Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance has strategically structured its loan portfolio to include a significant portion of fixed-rate loans or floating-rate loans with high interest rate floors. This approach insulates over 90% of its portfolio from potential interest rate declines, helping to preserve net interest income and maintain a consistent weighted-average portfolio yield, which was around 16.3% as of December 2025. By mitigating the adverse effects of declining interest rates, REFI aims to sustain its high-margin lending in cannabis real estate, thereby supporting stable revenue generation.
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Share Repurchases
- Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance has not made significant share repurchases, with a reported buyback yield of 0.0% for the period of 2021-2024.
Share Issuance
- In early 2023, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance issued 395,779 shares of common stock through a registered direct placement at a price of $15.16 per share, resulting in approximately $5.985 million in net proceeds.
- As of December 31, 2025, there were approximately 21.5 million common shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis.
- The company has a shelf registration capacity of $452.1 million for future offerings under a 2026 S-3 shelf.
Outbound Investments
- Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance advanced approximately $79.4 million in gross loan principal during 2025.
- The company's total loan principal outstanding reached $411.1 million across 26 portfolio companies as of December 31, 2025.
- From January 1, 2026, to March 12, 2026, approximately $51.1 million in new gross loan principal was advanced, comprising $16.2 million to a new borrower and $34.9 million to existing borrowers.
Capital Expenditures
- No specific dollar value information for capital expenditures is available over the last 3-5 years.
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 6.25 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.3 |
| Rev LTM | 55 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 164 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 88 |
| CFO LTM | 164 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 88 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | -9.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -18.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | - |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 67.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 60.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 67.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 60.0% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $10.75 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/08/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -12.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $10.86 | $11.16 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -1.0% | -3.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 27.1% | 24.7% |
| Downside Capture | 91.10 | 87.53 |
| Upside Capture | 37.80 | 55.58 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 13.6% | 30.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.29 | -0.01 | 0.34 | 0.49 | 0.61 | 0.44 |
| Up Beta | -1.62 | -0.68 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.54 | 0.31 |
| Down Beta | -0.28 | -0.44 | -0.40 | 0.37 | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| Up Capture | -2% | 8% | 41% | 48% | 47% | 22% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 18 | 33 | 61 | 122 | 374 |
| Down Capture | 15% | 63% | 97% | 83% | 94% | 83% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 20 | 26 | 57 | 119 | 350 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with REFI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REFI | -9.4% | 24.6% | -0.45 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.0% | 14.7% | 0.37 | 32.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.7% | 12.6% | 1.28 | 30.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.5% | 27.9% | 0.65 | 7.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 27.3% | 18.9% | 1.14 | -11.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.0% | 13.9% | 0.64 | 40.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -47.0% | 42.7% | -1.37 | 22.1% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with REFI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REFI | 4.1% | 24.4% | 0.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 10.9% | 18.6% | 0.46 | 31.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 29.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.2% | 18.4% | 0.76 | 8.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 19.5% | 0.33 | 4.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.7% | 18.9% | 0.04 | 36.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.8% | 53.4% | 0.42 | 12.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with REFI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REFI | 2.0% | 24.4% | 0.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 13.8% | 22.1% | 0.57 | 31.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 29.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.2% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 8.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.3% | 18.0% | 0.27 | 4.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 36.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 57.3% | 66.2% | 0.97 | 12.4% |
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Earnings Returns History
Updated 7/13/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -5.1% | -7.4% | -7.9% |
| 3/12/2026 | -0.5% | 1.9% | -1.3% |
| 11/4/2025 | -1.3% | -1.8% | -2.8% |
| 8/7/2025 | 2.7% | 8.5% | 8.8% |
| 5/7/2025 | 0.4% | 3.1% | -2.1% |
| 3/12/2025 | -3.5% | -2.3% | -11.4% |
| 11/7/2024 | 1.2% | -0.3% | 2.8% |
| 8/7/2024 | -2.4% | -2.7% | 1.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| # Negative | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 0.8% | 3.3% | 5.9% |
| Median Negative | -1.1% | -2.3% | -2.8% |
| Max Positive | 3.3% | 10.4% | 12.4% |
| Max Negative | -5.1% | -7.4% | -11.4% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -5.1% | -7.4% | -7.9% |
| 3/12/2026 | -0.5% | 1.9% | -1.3% |
| 11/4/2025 | -1.3% | -1.8% | -2.8% |
| 8/7/2025 | 2.7% | 8.5% | 8.8% |
| 5/7/2025 | 0.4% | 3.1% | -2.1% |
| 3/12/2025 | -3.5% | -2.3% | -11.4% |
| 11/7/2024 | 1.2% | -0.3% | 2.8% |
| 8/7/2024 | -2.4% | -2.7% | 1.9% |
| 5/7/2024 | -0.2% | -1.3% | -1.7% |
| 3/12/2024 | -1.1% | -1.8% | -4.2% |
| 11/8/2023 | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% |
| 8/9/2023 | 0.3% | -3.6% | -0.9% |
| 5/9/2023 | -0.2% | 0.5% | 8.1% |
| 11/9/2022 | 3.3% | 10.4% | 12.4% |
| 8/9/2022 | 0.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 5/12/2022 | 0.4% | -2.8% | 4.0% |
| 3/22/2022 | -0.5% | 4.5% | 7.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| # Negative | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 0.8% | 3.3% | 5.9% |
| Median Negative | -1.1% | -2.3% | -2.8% |
| Max Positive | 3.3% | 10.4% | 12.4% |
| Max Negative | -5.1% | -7.4% | -11.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/12/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/12/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/09/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/12/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/12/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/09/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 04/14/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 12/09/2021 | 424B4 |
Insider Activity
Updated 4/26/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mazarakis, John | Executive Chairman | Direct | Buy | 10162025 | 12.75 | 8,000 | 102,000 | 5,311,739 | Form |
| 2 | Papastavrou, Jason D | Direct | Buy | 10162025 | 12.62 | 10,000 | 126,150 | 625,023 | Form | |
| 3 | Papastavrou, Jason D | Self as Trustee for Michael Athans Trust | Buy | 10162025 | 12.71 | 5,000 | 63,550 | 63,550 | Form | |
| 4 | Papastavrou, Jason D | Self as Custodian for Michael Athans | Buy | 10162025 | 12.68 | 3,000 | 38,040 | 38,040 | Form | |
| 5 | Kite, David | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Buy | 10162025 | 12.70 | 2,500 | 31,750 | 755,853 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mazarakis, John | Executive Chairman | Direct | Buy | 10162025 | 12.75 | 8,000 | 102,000 | 5,311,739 | Form |
| 2 | Papastavrou, Jason D | Direct | Buy | 10162025 | 12.62 | 10,000 | 126,150 | 625,023 | Form | |
| 3 | Papastavrou, Jason D | Self as Trustee for Michael Athans Trust | Buy | 10162025 | 12.71 | 5,000 | 63,550 | 63,550 | Form | |
| 4 | Papastavrou, Jason D | Self as Custodian for Michael Athans | Buy | 10162025 | 12.68 | 3,000 | 38,040 | 38,040 | Form | |
| 5 | Kite, David | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Buy | 10162025 | 12.70 | 2,500 | 31,750 | 755,853 | Form |
| 6 | Kite, David | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Buy | 10162025 | 12.31 | 2,500 | 30,775 | 701,867 | Form |
| 7 | Konigsberg, Brandon | Direct | Buy | 10162025 | 12.33 | 7,000 | 86,296 | 339,587 | Form | |
| 8 | Sack, Peter | Co-Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 10162025 | 12.43 | 8,150 | 101,304 | 1,010,025 | Form |
| 9 | Mazarakis, John | Executive Chairman | Direct | Buy | 10022025 | 12.43 | 7,500 | 93,225 | 5,078,985 | Form |
| 10 | Silverman, Phillip | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 4102025 | 13.00 | 769 | 9,997 | 507,702 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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