Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $12.84 | Market Cap: $270.6 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Mortgage REITs
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $12.84Market Cap: $270.6 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Mortgage REITs
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 29%, Dividend Yield is 16%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 25%, FCF Yield is 8.9% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -50% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.4% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, and Cannabis Industry Growth. Themes include Private Credit, and Cannabis Finance & Real Estate. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 29%, Dividend Yield is 16%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 25%, FCF Yield is 8.9% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, and Cannabis Industry Growth. Themes include Private Credit, and Cannabis Finance & Real Estate. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -50% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.4% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
REFI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI) experienced a -6.9% stock movement in the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, influenced by the following key factors:
1. Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Miss on EPS: Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings on November 4, 2025, revealing an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.42, which missed the forecasted $0.48 by 12.5%. This negative surprise in EPS likely contributed to downward pressure on the stock. However, revenue for the same quarter exceeded expectations, reaching $15.25 million against an anticipated $14.04 million.
2. Decline in Net Interest Income: The company's net interest income for the third quarter of 2025 was $13.7 million, a 5.1% decrease from $14.4 million in the second quarter of 2025. This reduction in net interest income can be a concern for investors as it directly impacts profitability.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| REFI Return | - | - | 3% | 24% | 9% | -10% | 24% |
| Peers Return | -14% | 10% | -19% | 2% | 6% | 2% | -15% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| REFI Win Rate | - | 50% | 67% | 42% | 40% | ||
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 57% | 50% | 45% | 55% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| REFI Max Drawdown | - | - | -10% | -14% | -4% | -14% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -64% | -6% | -34% | -22% | -11% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DX, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | REFI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -35.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to DX, IVR, RC, LOAN, NLY
In The Past
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance's stock fell -35.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/28/2022. A -35.7% loss requires a 55.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to REFI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 10.48 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| Rev LTM | 64 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 140 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 133 |
| CFO LTM | 140 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 133 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -2.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 38.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 9.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 119.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 77.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 92.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 77.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 9.0 |
| P/CFO | 7.9 |
| Total Yield | 11.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 10.3% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 8.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 6.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 13.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -6.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -6.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -57.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3122025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3122024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3092023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5122022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 4142022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Papastavrou Jason D | 10162025 | Buy | 12.62 | 10,000 | 126,150 | 625,023 | Form | |
| 1 | Kite David | Chief Operating Officer | 10162025 | Buy | 12.31 | 2,500 | 30,775 | 701,867 | Form |
| 2 | Konigsberg Brandon | 10162025 | Buy | 12.33 | 7,000 | 86,296 | 339,587 | Form | |
| 3 | Sack Peter | Co-Chief Executive Officer | 10162025 | Buy | 12.43 | 8,150 | 101,304 | 1,010,025 | Form |
| 4 | Mazarakis John | Executive Chairman | 10162025 | Buy | 12.75 | 8,000 | 102,000 | 5,311,739 | Form |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |