Tearsheet

Radian (RDN)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $34.95 | Market Cap: $4.8 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

Radian (RDN)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $34.95
Market Cap: $4.8 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 3.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.1%, Dist 3Y High is -4.1%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.0%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -1.7%
Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -90%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -90%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Real Estate Data Analytics.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 3.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Real Estate Data Analytics.
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.1%, Dist 3Y High is -4.1%
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -1.7%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.0%
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -90%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -90%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

RDN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, here are five key points that contributed to the 2.3% movement in Radian (RDN) stock:

1. Radian reported strong Q3 2025 earnings per share (EPS) that exceeded analyst expectations. The company announced an adjusted diluted net operating income per share of $1.15, surpassing analyst consensus estimates of $0.95 to $1.00. While revenue for the quarter was slightly below forecasts, the robust EPS performance likely fueled positive investor sentiment during the period.

2. The company announced a significant strategic transformation. Radian revealed plans for a proposed $1.7 billion acquisition of specialty insurer Inigo and the divestiture of its non-mortgage insurance businesses to sharpen its focus on core mortgage insurance operations. This strategic realignment is expected to expand Radian's addressable market and create meaningful capital synergies, which can be viewed favorably by the market.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
RDN Return-17%7%-6%55%15%15%70%
Peers Return-6%28%2%8%39%14%109%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
RDN Win Rate50%58%42%75%67%60% 
Peers Win Rate55%55%47%53%63%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
RDN Max Drawdown-61%-5%-13%-2%-4%-4% 
Peers Max Drawdown-44%-7%-15%-20%-1%-9% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AXS, LNC, THG, AGO, PGR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventRDNS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-26.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven36.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven323 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-62.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven163.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1140 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-38.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven63.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven364 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-98.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven8537.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to AXS, LNC, THG, AGO, PGR


In The Past

Radian's stock fell -26.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/2/2022. A -26.5% loss requires a 36.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Radian (RDN)

Better Bets than Radian (RDN)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to RDN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Radian

Peers to compare with:

Financials

RDNAXSLNCTHGAGOPGRMedian
NameRadian Axis Cap.Lincoln .Hanover .Assured .Progress. 
Mkt Price35.4499.5841.92179.9888.83227.1894.20
Mkt Cap4.97.77.56.44.2133.27.0
Rev LTM1,2856,28618,4566,48395482,3766,385
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM-1,156-316-1781,00426616,47244
FCF 3Y Avg-200770-1,2967113212,350372
CFO LTM-1,153-316-1781,01326616,80044
CFO 3Y Avg-189770-1,2967223212,634377

Growth & Margins

RDNAXSLNCTHGAGOPGRMedian
NameRadian Axis Cap.Lincoln .Hanover .Assured .Progress. 
Rev Chg LTM0.3%7.5%35.5%5.2%2.5%21.5%6.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg1.2%5.7%3.1%6.9%25.8%20.0%6.3%
Rev Chg Q-1.0%11.4%9.4%6.2%-21.0%21.3%7.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.3%2.8%2.2%1.5%-5.3%4.9%1.8%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM-89.7%-5.0%-1.0%15.6%27.9%20.4%7.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-14.1%13.6%-9.5%11.6%4.7%18.0%8.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-89.9%-5.0%-1.0%15.5%27.9%20.0%7.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-14.9%13.6%-9.5%11.4%4.7%17.6%8.0%

Valuation

RDNAXSLNCTHGAGOPGRMedian
NameRadian Axis Cap.Lincoln .Hanover .Assured .Progress. 
Mkt Cap4.97.77.56.44.2133.27.0
P/S3.91.20.41.04.21.91.5
P/EBIT5.86.1-7.86.511.76.5
P/E8.47.33.410.310.015.09.2
P/CFO-4.3-23.5-40.76.415.19.31.1
Total Yield14.9%15.6%33.4%11.7%10.0%8.5%13.3%
Dividend Yield3.0%2.0%4.4%2.0%0.0%1.8%2.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-3.4%13.4%-23.1%13.2%0.3%10.3%5.3%
D/E0.70.20.80.20.40.00.3
Net D/E0.1-0.6-3.9-0.6-0.2-0.0-0.4

Returns

RDNAXSLNCTHGAGOPGRMedian
NameRadian Axis Cap.Lincoln .Hanover .Assured .Progress. 
1M Rtn4.7%5.6%3.3%5.4%9.6%11.5%5.5%
3M Rtn2.0%1.8%-2.1%1.9%9.1%-7.9%1.9%
6M Rtn8.3%-3.7%31.5%4.9%6.0%-19.4%5.4%
12M Rtn2.8%8.4%26.6%12.6%-2.2%-11.7%5.6%
3Y Rtn105.5%87.4%30.0%32.8%40.8%76.6%58.7%
1M Excs Rtn4.7%5.6%3.3%5.4%9.6%11.6%5.5%
3M Excs Rtn-4.4%-4.6%-7.2%-5.6%2.0%-14.1%-5.1%
6M Excs Rtn-6.5%-18.4%16.7%-9.8%-8.7%-34.1%-9.3%
12M Excs Rtn-11.5%-4.5%10.8%-2.1%-16.8%-27.3%-8.0%
3Y Excs Rtn30.3%17.4%-38.5%-39.1%-26.9%7.2%-9.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Mortgage Insurance1,1111,1381,1521,2481,297
All Other120134163090
Adjustments10-81146152
Inter-segment-0-1-0-1-1
Homegenius  149102 
Real Estate    90
Total1,2411,1911,3301,4391,527


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,743,896
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-20.9%
Average Daily Volume888,156
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.22
Basic Shares Quantity137,376,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025801202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025502202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024214202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024802202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024503202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023223202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231103202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211105202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Thornberry Richard GChief Executive Officer10292025Sell33.2420,000664,72829,875,469Form