AVITA Medical (RCEL)
Market Price (6/22/2026): $4.005 | Market Cap: $122.3 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
AVITA Medical (RCEL)
Market Price (6/22/2026): $4.005Market Cap: $122.3 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Biotechnology & Genomics. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Regenerative Therapies. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -92%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -147% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -40 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -55% Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -43%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -45% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -41% Significant short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 15.34 Key risksRCEL key risks include [1] a crippling backlog of unpaid CMS claims for its RECELL product that has severely impacted revenue, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Biotechnology & Genomics. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Regenerative Therapies. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -92%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -147% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -40 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -55% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -43%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -45% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -41% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 15.34 |
| Key risksRCEL key risks include [1] a crippling backlog of unpaid CMS claims for its RECELL product that has severely impacted revenue, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 6/9/2026
AVITA Medical (RCEL) stock has lost about 20% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Weaker than anticipated financial results for fiscal Q4 2025 contributed to negative investor sentiment. AVITA Medical reported its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on February 12, 2026, prior to the start of the analysis period. The company's total revenue of $17.6 million fell short of the estimated $18.2 million, and diluted earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.47 missed the consensus estimate of -$0.38 by 19.15%. This performance led to a 3.05% decline in the stock following the report and set a cautious tone for the subsequent period. Additionally, the gross margin for fiscal Q4 2025 decreased to 81.2% from 87.6% in the prior year period, primarily due to inventory reserves and changes in product mix.
2. Fiscal Q1 2026 earnings showed continued profitability challenges despite revenue growth. For fiscal Q1 2026, reported on May 14, 2026, AVITA Medical announced a loss per share of -$0.35, which fell short of the consensus estimate of -$0.2856 by 22.55%, resulting in a 2.96% stock decline in the reaction period. Although revenue grew to approximately $19.3 million, marking a 4% year-over-year and 10% sequential increase, the company's net cash use was approximately $9.9 million in fiscal Q1 2026, and cash and marketable securities declined to $14.3 million from $18.2 million during the quarter. Management acknowledged a higher cash burn than expected. Furthermore, the gross margin in fiscal Q1 2026 also saw a year-over-year decrease to 81.7% from 84.7%, attributed to product mix and inventory adjustments.
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AVITA Medical (RCEL) stock has lost about 20% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Weaker than anticipated financial results for fiscal Q4 2025 contributed to negative investor sentiment. AVITA Medical reported its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on February 12, 2026, prior to the start of the analysis period. The company's total revenue of $17.6 million fell short of the estimated $18.2 million, and diluted earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.47 missed the consensus estimate of -$0.38 by 19.15%. This performance led to a 3.05% decline in the stock following the report and set a cautious tone for the subsequent period. Additionally, the gross margin for fiscal Q4 2025 decreased to 81.2% from 87.6% in the prior year period, primarily due to inventory reserves and changes in product mix.
2. Fiscal Q1 2026 earnings showed continued profitability challenges despite revenue growth. For fiscal Q1 2026, reported on May 14, 2026, AVITA Medical announced a loss per share of -$0.35, which fell short of the consensus estimate of -$0.2856 by 22.55%, resulting in a 2.96% stock decline in the reaction period. Although revenue grew to approximately $19.3 million, marking a 4% year-over-year and 10% sequential increase, the company's net cash use was approximately $9.9 million in fiscal Q1 2026, and cash and marketable securities declined to $14.3 million from $18.2 million during the quarter. Management acknowledged a higher cash burn than expected. Furthermore, the gross margin in fiscal Q1 2026 also saw a year-over-year decrease to 81.7% from 84.7%, attributed to product mix and inventory adjustments.
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Updated on 6/9/2026
AVITA Medical (RCEL) stock has lost about 20% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Weaker than anticipated financial results for fiscal Q4 2025 contributed to negative investor sentiment. AVITA Medical reported its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on February 12, 2026, prior to the start of the analysis period. The company's total revenue of $17.6 million fell short of the estimated $18.2 million, and diluted earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.47 missed the consensus estimate of -$0.38 by 19.15%. This performance led to a 3.05% decline in the stock following the report and set a cautious tone for the subsequent period. Additionally, the gross margin for fiscal Q4 2025 decreased to 81.2% from 87.6% in the prior year period, primarily due to inventory reserves and changes in product mix.
2. Fiscal Q1 2026 earnings showed continued profitability challenges despite revenue growth. For fiscal Q1 2026, reported on May 14, 2026, AVITA Medical announced a loss per share of -$0.35, which fell short of the consensus estimate of -$0.2856 by 22.55%, resulting in a 2.96% stock decline in the reaction period. Although revenue grew to approximately $19.3 million, marking a 4% year-over-year and 10% sequential increase, the company's net cash use was approximately $9.9 million in fiscal Q1 2026, and cash and marketable securities declined to $14.3 million from $18.2 million during the quarter. Management acknowledged a higher cash burn than expected. Furthermore, the gross margin in fiscal Q1 2026 also saw a year-over-year decrease to 81.7% from 84.7%, attributed to product mix and inventory adjustments.
3. Persistent unprofitability and liquidity concerns weighed on the stock. Despite efforts to optimize costs, AVITA Medical continues to face significant net losses and a negative operating margin. As of fiscal Q1 2026, the company's trailing twelve-month figures showed a loss of US$45.3 million against US$72.3 million in revenue, indicating that the business is still absorbing a substantial amount of cost relative to sales. Analysts have noted that the business remains unprofitable with negative shareholders' equity and less than one year of cash runway, raising ongoing risk concerns. While management expressed confidence in cash reserves to reach cash flow breakeven, they also indicated a desire for additional cash on the balance sheet and a plan to address it if necessary during the summer.
4. Cautious market sentiment and technical weakness contributed to the decline. The stock's performance was also influenced by a generally cautious market sentiment. As of June 9, 2026, the stock's GF Value was estimated at $10.73, while it was trading at $4.19, suggesting it was considered a "Possible Value Trap, Think Twice" based on its GF Value. Additionally, technical indicators identified a "Strong Sell" signal. While some analysts maintain "Buy" ratings and average price targets suggested upside, the overall financial picture with ongoing losses and cash burn likely dampened investor enthusiasm, especially for a small-cap healthcare company sensitive to both sector-specific news and broader risk sentiment.
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AVITA Medical (RCEL) stock has lost about 20% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Weaker than anticipated financial results for fiscal Q4 2025 contributed to negative investor sentiment. AVITA Medical reported its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on February 12, 2026, prior to the start of the analysis period. The company's total revenue of $17.6 million fell short of the estimated $18.2 million, and diluted earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.47 missed the consensus estimate of -$0.38 by 19.15%. This performance led to a 3.05% decline in the stock following the report and set a cautious tone for the subsequent period. Additionally, the gross margin for fiscal Q4 2025 decreased to 81.2% from 87.6% in the prior year period, primarily due to inventory reserves and changes in product mix.
2. Fiscal Q1 2026 earnings showed continued profitability challenges despite revenue growth. For fiscal Q1 2026, reported on May 14, 2026, AVITA Medical announced a loss per share of -$0.35, which fell short of the consensus estimate of -$0.2856 by 22.55%, resulting in a 2.96% stock decline in the reaction period. Although revenue grew to approximately $19.3 million, marking a 4% year-over-year and 10% sequential increase, the company's net cash use was approximately $9.9 million in fiscal Q1 2026, and cash and marketable securities declined to $14.3 million from $18.2 million during the quarter. Management acknowledged a higher cash burn than expected. Furthermore, the gross margin in fiscal Q1 2026 also saw a year-over-year decrease to 81.7% from 84.7%, attributed to product mix and inventory adjustments.
3. Persistent unprofitability and liquidity concerns weighed on the stock. Despite efforts to optimize costs, AVITA Medical continues to face significant net losses and a negative operating margin. As of fiscal Q1 2026, the company's trailing twelve-month figures showed a loss of US$45.3 million against US$72.3 million in revenue, indicating that the business is still absorbing a substantial amount of cost relative to sales. Analysts have noted that the business remains unprofitable with negative shareholders' equity and less than one year of cash runway, raising ongoing risk concerns. While management expressed confidence in cash reserves to reach cash flow breakeven, they also indicated a desire for additional cash on the balance sheet and a plan to address it if necessary during the summer.
4. Cautious market sentiment and technical weakness contributed to the decline. The stock's performance was also influenced by a generally cautious market sentiment. As of June 9, 2026, the stock's GF Value was estimated at $10.73, while it was trading at $4.19, suggesting it was considered a "Possible Value Trap, Think Twice" based on its GF Value. Additionally, technical indicators identified a "Strong Sell" signal. While some analysts maintain "Buy" ratings and average price targets suggested upside, the overall financial picture with ongoing losses and cash burn likely dampened investor enthusiasm, especially for a small-cap healthcare company sensitive to both sector-specific news and broader risk sentiment.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -20.3% change in RCEL stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -20.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.03 | 4.01 | -20.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 72 | 72 | 1.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.1 | 1.7 | -20.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 30 | 31 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -20.3% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RCEL | -20.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.2% | 39.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | -6.4% | 31.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.4% change in RCEL stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 16.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 3.70 | 4.01 | 8.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 72 | 72 | -0.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.5 | 1.7 | 16.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 28 | 31 | -7.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 8.4% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RCEL | 8.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 33.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | -4.4% | 15.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -28.6% change in RCEL stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -17.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.62 | 4.01 | -28.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 72 | 72 | 1.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.1 | 1.7 | -17.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 26 | 31 | -14.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -28.6% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RCEL | -28.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 28.1% | 24.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | 14.6% | 7.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -64.9% change in RCEL stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -78.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.42 | 4.01 | -64.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 37 | 72 | 93.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 7.7 | 1.7 | -78.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 25 | 31 | -17.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -64.9% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RCEL | -64.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 85.7% | 28.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | 22.9% | 14.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RCEL Return | -36% | -45% | 108% | -7% | -73% | 14% | -79% |
| Peers Return | 1% | -33% | 52% | 1% | -1% | -11% | -9% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RCEL Win Rate | 33% | 25% | 67% | 50% | 25% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 42% | 58% | 48% | 48% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RCEL Max Drawdown | -59% | -63% | -55% | -58% | -77% | -33% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -46% | -50% | -39% | -39% | -47% | -39% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: IART, ORGO, MDXG, VCEL, INCY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RCEL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -48.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 94.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 122 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -62.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 168.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 133 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -63.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 173.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 104 days | 140 days |
In The Past
AVITA Medical's stock fell -5.1% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 5.3% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | RCEL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -48.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 94.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 122 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -62.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 168.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 133 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -63.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 173.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 104 days | 140 days |
In The Past
AVITA Medical's stock fell -5.1% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 5.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About AVITA Medical (RCEL)
AVITA Medical Inc. (RCEL) is a commercial-stage regenerative tissue company focused on developing solutions derived from a patient's own skin to address unmet medical needs. Operating in the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom, the company targets a range of conditions including burn injuries, trauma, chronic wounds, and various dermatological and aesthetic indications like vitiligo. Its core patented and proprietary platform technology harnesses the natural regenerative properties of human skin to create innovative treatment options.
The company's flagship product is the RECELL System, a proprietary device that allows healthcare professionals to quickly prepare a suspension of "Spray-On Skin" cells using only a small sample of the patient's own healthy skin. This suspension is then applied to the wound or affected area. Currently, the RECELL System is primarily used for the treatment of acute thermal burns in patients eighteen years and older, significantly reducing the amount of donor skin required. AVITA Medical is also exploring its technology's potential through research collaborations for applications such as genetically corrected cells and cellular aging reversal, indicating a broader future scope beyond its current burn treatment focus.
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Here are 1-2 brief analogies for AVITA Medical (RCEL):
- Align Technology (Invisalign) for regenerative skin treatments.
- Intuitive Surgical (Da Vinci robots) for regenerative skin repair.
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- RECELL System: A device used by healthcare professionals to create a suspension of Spray-On Skin cells from a patient's own skin for treating acute thermal burns.
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AVITA Medical (RCEL) sells its products, primarily the RECELL System, to various healthcare institutions and professionals who treat patients with burn injuries, trauma injuries, chronic wounds, and dermatological conditions like vitiligo. As such, the company's customers are not individual patients, but rather healthcare providers and facilities.
Given the nature of its products and sales model, AVITA Medical sells to a broad base of healthcare organizations rather than a few major public company customers that would typically be listed by name and stock symbol. Therefore, its major customers can be categorized as follows:
- Hospitals and Burn Centers: These institutions are the primary customers for the RECELL System, as it is used by healthcare professionals for the treatment of acute thermal burns.
- Trauma Centers: Expanding beyond just burns, trauma centers would utilize AVITA Medical's regenerative products for various trauma injuries requiring skin reconstruction or healing.
- Dermatology and Aesthetics Clinics: For indications such as vitiligo and other dermatological or aesthetic applications mentioned in the company description, specialized clinics focusing on skin conditions and cosmetic procedures would be customers.
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Cary Vance
Interim Chief Executive Officer
Cary Vance was appointed Interim Chief Executive Officer of AVITA Medical in October 2025. He has been a member of AVITA Medical's Board of Directors since 2023. Mr. Vance brings over 30 years of experience in the healthcare industry, having previously served as President and CEO of several innovative companies, including PhotoniCare, Inc., Titan Medical Inc., Optiscan Biomedical, Hansen Medical, and XCath. His career also includes various global leadership roles at Teleflex, Covidien, and GE HealthCare.
David O'Toole
Chief Financial Officer
David O'Toole was appointed Chief Financial Officer of AVITA Medical, effective June 15, 2023. He is an accomplished financial executive with over 30 years of experience in global corporate finance, capital markets, and accounting within biotech and life sciences companies. Prior to joining AVITA Medical, Mr. O'Toole served as CFO of Opiant Pharmaceuticals, a biopharmaceutical company that was acquired by Indivior PLC in March 2023. Before Opiant, he was the CFO of Soleno Therapeutics. He also held CFO roles for three other publicly traded life sciences companies prior to Soleno. Mr. O'Toole spent 24 years in public accounting, including 16 years with Deloitte & Touche.
Ben Atkins
Vice President of Investor Relations & Corporate Communications
Ben Atkins serves as the Vice President of Investor Relations & Corporate Communications for AVITA Medical. He was mentioned in this role during the company's February 2026 quarterly webinar and as an investor relations contact in January 2026 and October 2025 announcements.
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Here are the key risks to AVITA Medical (RCEL):
- Financial Health and Going Concern: AVITA Medical has consistently experienced significant losses and anticipates continued losses in the foreseeable future. The company carries substantial debt obligations under its credit agreements, which include restrictive covenants, and failure to meet revenue targets could result in default, necessitating additional, potentially dilutive, financing. Recent reports highlight negative shareholder equity, a limited cash runway, and concerns about monthly cash burn. The company has also issued a "going concern" warning due to expected non-compliance with a minimum cash covenant under its senior secured credit facility. Despite a robust gross profit margin, high operating expenses contribute to ongoing net losses.
- Market Adoption and Reimbursement Challenges for the RECELL System: AVITA Medical faces challenges in achieving widespread market adoption for its RECELL System. The requirement for extensive training and certification for healthcare providers can restrict market spread by limiting the number of practitioners qualified to administer the treatment, thereby reducing patient accessibility. Furthermore, unforeseen payment problems affecting customers by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) significantly impacted sales momentum and revenue for RECELL Go in 2025, constraining demand. The cost of the RECELL System, if perceived as too high compared to alternatives, could also limit its adoption despite its proven effectiveness and long-term cost savings. Value Analysis Committee (VAC) approvals in hospitals also delay the onboarding of new accounts.
- Intense Competition: AVITA Medical operates within a highly competitive and innovative acute wound care market, facing challenges in maintaining its competitive edge. The regenerative medicine sector is dynamic, with existing players and new entrants continually developing advanced technologies and treatment solutions. Competitors may offer treatments that require less intensive training or are more cost-effective, potentially diminishing RECELL's market share.
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AVITA Medical Inc. operates in addressable markets primarily within the United States for its regenerative tissue products, including the RECELL System and its expanded portfolio.
The company estimates its total addressable market (TAM) in the U.S. for its multi-product acute wound care portfolio, which includes RECELL, RECELL GO mini, Cohealyx, and PermeaDerm, to be over $3.5 billion annually. This expanded market opportunity covers burn, trauma, and surgical wounds.
Specifically, AVITA Medical targets approximately 200 U.S. burn and trauma centers with its integrated portfolio of RECELL, Cohealyx, and PermeaDerm, representing an addressable market of roughly $1.3 billion. The RECELL GO mini is designed to address smaller wounds and is relevant for approximately 270,000 trauma cases annually in the U.S.
While AVITA Medical's products are also indicated for dermatological and aesthetics indications, including vitiligo, the company announced in May 2025 that it is suspending its vitiligo efforts due to uncertainty in achieving reimbursement support. Prior to this, the global vitiligo treatment market was estimated at $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion in 2025 and projected to reach $2.5 billion by 2033. In the U.S., approximately 500,000 patients with vitiligo sought treatment in 2022.
The global chronic wound care market was estimated at USD 13.8 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 19.5 billion by 2033, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.11% from 2025 to 2033. The U.S. chronic wound care market represents a significant portion of this global market.
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AVITA Medical Inc. (RCEL) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market dynamics:
- Normalization of RECELL System Utilization and Improved Reimbursement Clarity: A significant factor expected to boost revenue is the fading of reimbursement uncertainties that impacted RECELL utilization in 2025. With six of the seven Medicare administrative contractors now having published payment rates for RECELL procedures, a key constraint has been removed, restoring clinician confidence and leading to an anticipated normalization of RECELL usage. This improved clarity is expected to support consistent execution and drive predictable growth.
- Expanded Adoption and Utilization of a Multi-Product Platform (CoHiliX and PermeaDerm): AVITA Medical is transitioning to a multi-product platform strategy, with its newer offerings, CoHiliX and PermeaDerm, expected to provide incremental contributions to revenue. These products are being used repeatedly by clinicians across various patient episodes, and their adoption within core accounts is a key commercial focus. Clinical study data for both CoHiliX and PermeaDerm are expected later in 2026, which could further drive adoption.
- Increased Penetration and Repeat Use within Core Burn and Trauma Centers: The company has strategically refined its commercial focus on approximately 200 core burn and trauma centers, which currently generate about 90% of its revenue. Future growth is expected to come from driving repeat utilization and multi-product adoption within these existing institutions, rather than solely from expanding to new accounts.
- Launch and Growth of New Products, including RECELL GO mini: The introduction of new products, such as the RECELL GO mini, is anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue growth. The RECELL GO mini is designed for smaller wounds and is addressing a substantial number of trauma cases annually in the U.S., expanding AVITA Medical's addressable market.
- International Market Expansion: While the U.S. remains a primary focus, AVITA Medical is also pursuing international expansion. The company has supported initial clinical use of RECELL GO in several European markets following CE Mark approval and plans a launch in Japan through a distribution partner. These international market entries are expected to contribute to overall revenue growth and market penetration.
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Capital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years)
Share Issuance
- AVITA Medical issued common stock in lieu of a cash payment in the second quarter of 2025, as part of amending its credit terms with OrbiMed.
- The company's number of outstanding shares increased by 7.64% in one year.
Inbound Investments
- In January 2026, AVITA Medical closed a five-year credit facility providing up to $60 million in capital from Perceptive Advisors.
- An initial $50 million was funded from this facility, with an option to draw an additional $10 million through the first quarter of 2027.
- The proceeds from this new credit facility were used to repay the company's outstanding debt and to support further growth of its acute wound care portfolio.
Capital Expenditures
- In the last 12 months (approximately for fiscal year 2025), AVITA Medical reported capital expenditures of -$1.01 million.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| AVITA Medical Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Can AVITA Medical Stock Recover If Markets Fall? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 10.79 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| Rev LTM | 451 |
| Op Inc LTM | 28 |
| FCF LTM | 32 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 11 |
| CFO LTM | 66 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 54 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 220.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 127.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $4.01 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/02/2019 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -40.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $4.40 | $4.26 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -8.8% | -5.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 70.0% | 90.3% |
| Downside Capture | 280.03 | 281.85 |
| Upside Capture | 154.54 | 175.36 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 30.7% | 23.5% |
RCEL Betas & Captures as of 5/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.81 | 2.49 | 2.30 | 1.97 | 1.93 | 1.55 |
| Up Beta | -0.64 | 2.15 | 1.29 | 0.62 | 0.76 | 1.40 |
| Down Beta | -7.08 | -1.95 | 0.32 | 1.07 | 1.53 | 0.90 |
| Up Capture | 186% | 243% | 275% | 393% | 276% | 415% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 21 | 27 | 56 | 107 | 348 |
| Down Capture | 477% | 521% | 342% | 227% | 189% | 113% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 20 | 35 | 63 | 131 | 379 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RCEL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCEL | -23.1% | 89.9% | 0.08 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 14.0% | 15.0% | 0.66 | 6.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.5% | 12.4% | 1.61 | 23.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.2% | 27.5% | 0.77 | 16.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.8% | 18.8% | 0.83 | -0.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.7% | 0.52 | 16.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -40.0% | 42.4% | -1.08 | 20.2% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RCEL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCEL | -26.7% | 74.7% | -0.09 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 5.4% | 14.7% | 0.19 | 19.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.1% | 0.62 | 32.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.3% | 0.76 | 9.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 19.4% | 0.29 | 8.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.9% | 18.9% | 0.00 | 25.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.0% | 54.2% | 0.40 | 17.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RCEL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCEL | -5.6% | 172.0% | 0.30 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.4% | 16.6% | 0.46 | 16.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 19.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.3% | 16.1% | 0.63 | 4.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.9% | 18.0% | 0.26 | 7.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 16.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.8% | 1.00 | 7.3% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/17/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/14/2026 | 4.6% | 2.8% | -9.9% |
| 2/12/2026 | 11.8% | 28.8% | 24.2% |
| 11/6/2025 | 10.9% | 10.0% | 3.8% |
| 8/7/2025 | -21.0% | 7.8% | -21.7% |
| 5/8/2025 | -25.3% | -31.7% | -34.5% |
| 2/13/2025 | 20.4% | 11.0% | 2.8% |
| 11/7/2024 | -3.6% | 1.5% | 10.5% |
| 8/8/2024 | 20.7% | 17.4% | 14.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 14 | 11 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 4.5% | 7.2% | 10.5% |
| Median Negative | -3.4% | -8.0% | -16.0% |
| Max Positive | 20.7% | 30.7% | 43.9% |
| Max Negative | -25.3% | -31.7% | -34.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/14/2026 | 4.6% | 2.8% | -9.9% |
| 2/12/2026 | 11.8% | 28.8% | 24.2% |
| 11/6/2025 | 10.9% | 10.0% | 3.8% |
| 8/7/2025 | -21.0% | 7.8% | -21.7% |
| 5/8/2025 | -25.3% | -31.7% | -34.5% |
| 2/13/2025 | 20.4% | 11.0% | 2.8% |
| 11/7/2024 | -3.6% | 1.5% | 10.5% |
| 8/8/2024 | 20.7% | 17.4% | 14.4% |
| 5/13/2024 | 4.4% | -2.2% | 6.0% |
| 2/22/2024 | 0.5% | 6.6% | -7.8% |
| 11/9/2023 | 14.3% | 27.3% | 29.7% |
| 8/10/2023 | 1.0% | -11.3% | -12.5% |
| 5/12/2023 | 4.4% | -5.9% | 36.6% |
| 11/14/2022 | 0.9% | 5.6% | 7.0% |
| 8/12/2022 | -1.9% | -6.8% | -8.1% |
| 5/17/2022 | -4.4% | -3.5% | -17.0% |
| 3/1/2022 | -5.8% | -19.2% | -19.0% |
| 1/11/2022 | -0.5% | -9.1% | -16.0% |
| 11/12/2021 | -0.1% | -7.0% | -25.4% |
| 8/27/2021 | -1.9% | 1.9% | -12.2% |
| 6/17/2021 | 0.2% | 4.2% | -8.4% |
| 1/12/2021 | 11.6% | 30.7% | 43.9% |
| 8/31/2020 | 1.1% | 5.8% | 0.4% |
| 7/9/2020 | -3.2% | -17.9% | -21.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 14 | 11 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 4.5% | 7.2% | 10.5% |
| Median Negative | -3.4% | -8.0% | -16.0% |
| Max Positive | 20.7% | 30.7% | 43.9% |
| Max Negative | -25.3% | -31.7% | -34.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/14/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/13/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/14/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/13/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/28/2022 | 10-KT |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/08/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/26/2021 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/13/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/16/2021 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/10/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/27/2020 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/29/2020 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2019 | 05/12/2020 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2019 | 10/31/2019 | 20-F |
| 06/30/2018 | 09/19/2019 | 20FR12B |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 6/1/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/14/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 80.00 Mil | 82.50 Mil | 85.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 82.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 12.0% | 15.5% | 19.0% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 15.5% for 2026 |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 15.40 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Revenue | 80.00 Mil | 82.50 Mil | 85.00 Mil | 14.6% | Higher New | Actual: 72.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 12.0% | 15.5% | 19.0% | ||||
Insider Activity
Updated 6/12/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Woody, Joseph Fralin | Direct | Buy | 6112026 | 4.00 | 5,200 | 20,800 | 431,844 | Form | |
| 2 | Woody, Joseph Fralin | Direct | Buy | 6092026 | 4.19 | 10,000 | 41,900 | 430,569 | Form | |
| 3 | Woody, Joseph Fralin | Direct | Buy | 6052026 | 4.09 | 10,000 | 40,949 | 379,847 | Form | |
| 4 | Woody, Joseph Fralin | Direct | Buy | 6032026 | 4.19 | 10,000 | 41,936 | 83,873 | Form | |
| 5 | Woody, Joseph Fralin | Direct | Buy | 6032026 | 4.30 | 10,000 | 43,000 | 43,000 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Woody, Joseph Fralin | Direct | Buy | 6112026 | 4.00 | 5,200 | 20,800 | 431,844 | Form | |
| 2 | Woody, Joseph Fralin | Direct | Buy | 6092026 | 4.19 | 10,000 | 41,900 | 430,569 | Form | |
| 3 | Woody, Joseph Fralin | Direct | Buy | 6052026 | 4.09 | 10,000 | 40,949 | 379,847 | Form | |
| 4 | Woody, Joseph Fralin | Direct | Buy | 6032026 | 4.19 | 10,000 | 41,936 | 83,873 | Form | |
| 5 | Woody, Joseph Fralin | Direct | Buy | 6032026 | 4.30 | 10,000 | 43,000 | 43,000 | Form | |
| 6 | O'Toole, David D | CFO | Direct | Buy | 5202026 | 4.26 | 2,000 | 8,520 | 621,649 | Form |
| 7 | O'Toole, David D | CFO | Direct | Buy | 5192026 | 4.24 | 2,000 | 8,480 | 610,250 | Form |
| 8 | O'Toole, David D | CFO | Direct | Buy | 3112026 | 4.78 | 1,800 | 8,604 | 678,411 | Form |
| 9 | O'Toole, David D | CFO | Direct | Buy | 2232026 | 4.15 | 3,000 | 12,450 | 581,527 | Form |
| 10 | McNamara, Robert | Direct | Buy | 8292025 | 4.50 | 10,000 | 45,000 | 390,470 | Form | |
| 11 | O'Toole, David D | CFO | Direct | Buy | 8262025 | 4.52 | 2,000 | 9,040 | 143,090 | Form |
| 12 | McNamara, Robert | Direct | Buy | 8202025 | 5.00 | 10,000 | 50,000 | 383,855 | Form | |
| 13 | O'Toole, David D | CFO | Direct | Buy | 8122025 | 4.81 | 2,000 | 9,620 | 142,650 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Health Care Resources |
| U.S. National Library of Medicine |
| ClinicalTrials.gov |
| Modern Healthcare |
| Healthcare Dive |
| Fierce Healthcare |
| Health Affairs |
| Health Data Management |
| FDA Tracker |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services Resources |
| GenomeWeb |
| BioSpace |
| The Scientist |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 6/21/2026