Vericel (VCEL)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $36.51 | Market Cap: $1.8 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Vericel (VCEL)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $36.51Market Cap: $1.8 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -47%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -31% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 131x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 31x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 139x |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -34% | Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.5% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Regenerative Medicine & Cell Therapy, and Targeted Therapies. | Key risksVCEL key risks include [1] regulatory and development hurdles for its novel cell therapy products, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -34% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Regenerative Medicine & Cell Therapy, and Targeted Therapies. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -47%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -31% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 131x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 31x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 139x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.5% |
| Key risksVCEL key risks include [1] regulatory and development hurdles for its novel cell therapy products, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
VCEL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Analyst Price Target Reduction: Truist Financial reduced its price target for Vericel (VCEL) from $50 to $45 on December 18, 2025, despite maintaining a "Buy" rating on the stock. This downward adjustment from a notable analyst firm could have introduced a more cautious sentiment among investors, contributing to a slight pullback in the stock price.
2. Technical Sell Signals and Negative Short-Term Outlook: By mid-December 2025, Vericel's stock displayed "sell signals" from both its short-term and long-term Moving Averages. Technical analysis suggested a "negative evaluation" for the stock in the near future, which could have prompted short-term selling or deterred new investments, exerting slight downward pressure.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VCEL Return | 77% | 27% | -33% | 35% | 54% | -34% | 108% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VCEL Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 33% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VCEL Max Drawdown | -58% | 0% | -55% | -9% | -9% | -46% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, ACSB, ALPS, APRI, CRMO.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VCEL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -74.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 284.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -62.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 165.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 197 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -39.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 54 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -89.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 887.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1,480 days |
Compare to VRTX, ACSB, ALPS, APRI, CRMO
In The Past
Vericel's stock fell -74.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/28/2021. A -74.0% loss requires a 284.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to VCEL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.4% | 17.4% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.7% | -6.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.9% | 10.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.7% | 2.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.4% | 11.4% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.4% | 17.4% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.7% | -6.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.9% | 10.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.7% | 2.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.4% | 11.4% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Vericel
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 36.05 |
| Mkt Cap | 59.2 |
| Rev LTM | 5,991 |
| Op Inc LTM | -42 |
| FCF LTM | 1,679 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,035 |
| CFO LTM | 1,889 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,232 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 14.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 27.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 59.2 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| P/EBIT | 78.8 |
| P/E | 85.4 |
| P/CFO | 31.1 |
| Total Yield | 1.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.4% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 16.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -5.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -10.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 51.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 14.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -18.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -32.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -28.0% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | 4.2% | 8.7% | 0.3% |
| 7/31/2025 | -14.1% | -10.7% | -11.7% |
| 5/8/2025 | 3.5% | 4.5% | 7.0% |
| 2/27/2025 | -6.1% | -2.5% | -12.8% |
| 11/7/2024 | 4.1% | 15.5% | 17.3% |
| 8/1/2024 | -5.9% | -10.3% | 2.0% |
| 2/29/2024 | -4.4% | -5.5% | 8.8% |
| 11/8/2023 | -3.4% | 0.7% | -6.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 10 | 13 |
| # Negative | 14 | 12 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% |
| Median Negative | -4.7% | -8.1% | -7.5% |
| Max Positive | 20.8% | 34.5% | 34.6% |
| Max Negative | -23.4% | -18.7% | -59.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
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