Vericel (VCEL)
Market Price (7/26/2026): $45.1 | Market Cap: $2.3 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Vericel (VCEL)
Market Price (7/26/2026): $45.1Market Cap: $2.3 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 48% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Regenerative Medicine & Cell Therapy, and Targeted Therapies. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -45%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -48% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 100x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 37x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 107x Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.3% Key risksVCEL key risks include [1] regulatory and development hurdles for its novel cell therapy products, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 48% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Regenerative Medicine & Cell Therapy, and Targeted Therapies. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -45%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -48% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 100x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 37x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 107x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.3% |
| Key risksVCEL key risks include [1] regulatory and development hurdles for its novel cell therapy products, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Vericel (VCEL) stock has gained about 40% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Vericel reported robust financial results for fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026) and subsequently raised its full-year financial guidance. The company's total revenue increased by 30% year-over-year to $68.4 million, significantly surpassing analyst estimates of $63.68 million. Additionally, the reported net loss of $0.12 per diluted share for the quarter beat analyst expectations of a -$0.15 loss. Following this strong performance, Vericel increased its full-year 2026 revenue guidance by $10 million, projecting total revenue between $326 million and $336 million, representing approximately 20% growth at the midpoint.
2. The company secured a substantial BARDA award for NexoBrid. In April 2026, Vericel announced an award from the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) valued at up to $197 million. This award includes a $35 million base contract for the procurement and advanced development of NexoBrid, with an expectation of $5 million to $6 million in NexoBrid procurement revenue starting in the second half of fiscal 2026.
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Vericel (VCEL) stock has gained about 40% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Vericel reported robust financial results for fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026) and subsequently raised its full-year financial guidance. The company's total revenue increased by 30% year-over-year to $68.4 million, significantly surpassing analyst estimates of $63.68 million. Additionally, the reported net loss of $0.12 per diluted share for the quarter beat analyst expectations of a -$0.15 loss. Following this strong performance, Vericel increased its full-year 2026 revenue guidance by $10 million, projecting total revenue between $326 million and $336 million, representing approximately 20% growth at the midpoint.
2. The company secured a substantial BARDA award for NexoBrid. In April 2026, Vericel announced an award from the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) valued at up to $197 million. This award includes a $35 million base contract for the procurement and advanced development of NexoBrid, with an expectation of $5 million to $6 million in NexoBrid procurement revenue starting in the second half of fiscal 2026.
3. Vericel received FDA approval for its new MACI manufacturing facility and continued strong MACI product growth. The FDA approval of the new state-of-the-art manufacturing facility for MACI in fiscal Q1 2026 provides increased capacity, which is crucial for meeting demand and supporting future growth. MACI net revenue specifically grew by 22% to $56.4 million in fiscal Q1 2026, marking the fourth consecutive quarter with MACI growth of 20% or more. This operational milestone enhances the company's ability to commercialize its leading sports medicine product.
4. Analyst firms reiterated "Buy" ratings and increased price targets. Following the positive company news, several analysts maintained their "Buy" ratings and raised their price targets for Vericel. For instance, H.C. Wainwright increased its price target from $64 to $70 on May 8, 2026, and Truist Securities raised its target from $42 to $54 on July 16, 2026. The consensus analyst rating as of July 2026 remained a "Strong Buy," with an average 12-month price target of $59.25, suggesting a significant upside potential of approximately 27.04% from the current stock price.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 40.0% change in VCEL stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 22.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 32.17 | 45.05 | 40.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 276 | 292 | 5.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.0% | 7.3% | 22.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 98.5 | 106.6 | 8.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 51 | 51 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 40.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VCEL | 40.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.6% | 8.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | 10.9% | 42.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 25.1% change in VCEL stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 45.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 36.01 | 45.05 | 25.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 259 | 292 | 12.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.1% | 7.3% | 45.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 139.0 | 106.6 | -23.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 50 | 51 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 25.1% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VCEL | 25.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | 25.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 5.5% | 42.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 5.9% change in VCEL stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 488.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 42.55 | 45.05 | 5.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 239 | 292 | 22.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.2% | 7.3% | 488.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 713.0 | 106.6 | -85.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 50 | 51 | -1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 5.9% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VCEL | 5.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.6% | 27.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 22.2% | 46.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 19.9% change in VCEL stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 72.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 37.57 | 45.05 | 19.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 169 | 292 | 72.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 10.5 | 7.8 | -25.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 47 | 51 | -6.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 19.9% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VCEL | 19.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 72.6% | 38.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | 28.2% | 41.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VCEL Return | 27% | -33% | 35% | 54% | -34% | 25% | 46% |
| Peers Return | 43% | -20% | 3% | 78% | -33% | -7% | 31% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VCEL Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 75% | 67% | 50% | 43% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 46% | 50% | 46% | 58% | 75% | 41% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VCEL Max Drawdown | -48% | -59% | -21% | -25% | -52% | -28% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -41% | -46% | -34% | -26% | -59% | -39% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: VRTX, ATYR, AVLN, CNXU, COAG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/24/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VCEL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 92 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -44.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 81.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 503 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -61.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 162.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 184 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -27.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 8 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -30.5% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.9% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -48.8% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.3% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Vericel's stock fell -0.3% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 0.3% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | VCEL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -44.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 81.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 503 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -61.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 162.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 184 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -27.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 8 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -30.5% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.9% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -48.8% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.3% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -55.8% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 126.3% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 15 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -69.3% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 226.0% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1560 days | 1 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -29.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.8% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3511 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -26.4% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.8% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 156 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -73.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 275.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 28 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Vericel's stock fell -0.3% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 0.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Vericel (VCEL)
Vericel Corporation is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing, manufacturing, and distributing advanced cellular therapies. Headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, the company specializes in providing innovative biological solutions within the United States for significant medical needs in both sports medicine and severe burn care.
Vericel's product portfolio includes two commercially available autologous cell therapy products. MACI is designed to repair symptomatic full-thickness cartilage defects in the knee, serving the sports medicine market. Epicel is a permanent skin replacement humanitarian use device for treating adult and pediatric patients with deep-dermal or full-thickness burns, addressing a critical need in severe burn care.
In addition to its marketed products, Vericel has NexoBrid, a biological orphan product in the registration stage, aimed at eschar removal in adults with deep partial-thickness and/or full-thickness thermal burns, further expanding its presence in the burn care market. The company primarily serves medical professionals, hospitals, and specialized burn centers involved in orthopedic sports medicine and critical burn treatment.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Vericel is like the Vertex Pharmaceuticals of cellular therapies for severe burns and knee cartilage repair.
Vericel is like a specialized Regeneron, but focused on advanced cellular treatments for severe burns and damaged joints.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- MACI: An autologous cellularized scaffold product used for the repair of symptomatic, full-thickness cartilage defects of the knee.
- Epicel: A permanent skin replacement humanitarian use device for treating deep-dermal or full-thickness burns in adult and pediatric patients.
- NexoBrid: A biological orphan product currently in the registration stage, intended for eschar removal in adults with deep partial-thickness and/or full-thickness thermal burns.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Vericel Corporation sells its specialized cellular therapies directly to healthcare institutions, rather than to individual patients. Based on the company's business model for products like MACI, Epicel, and NexoBrid, its sales are distributed across a broad network of medical facilities in the United States. Vericel does not typically disclose specific major customer companies by name, as its products are sold to a large number of providers, and no single customer is reported to have a material adverse effect on its business.
Therefore, the primary categories of customers that Vericel serves are:
- Hospitals: Healthcare facilities that administer treatments for severe burns (Epicel, NexoBrid) and perform orthopedic procedures (MACI).
- Burn Centers: Specialized units within hospitals focused on treating patients with deep-dermal or full-thickness burns.
- Orthopedic Clinics: Medical practices or departments specializing in the diagnosis and treatment of musculoskeletal conditions, where MACI for cartilage repair would be utilized.
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- B. Braun Medical Inc.
- Eurofins Scientific (EPA.PA)
- Grifols S.A. (GRF.MC, GRFS)
- Lonza Group Ltd. (LONN.SW)
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Dominick Colangelo, President & CEO
Nick Colangelo joined Vericel in 2013 with more than twenty years of executive management and corporate development experience in the biopharmaceutical industry. He spent nearly a decade with Eli Lilly and Company, where he held positions as Director of Strategy and Business Development for Lilly's Diabetes Product Group and served as a founding Managing Director of Lilly Ventures. He is credited with spearheading the acquisition of MACI and Epicel, which transformed the company into the commercial-stage Vericel.
Joe Mara, Chief Financial Officer
Joe Mara joined Vericel in 2021, bringing over 20 years of financial, strategic, and operational experience, including more than 14 years in the biotech industry. Prior to Vericel, he served as Vice President, Finance and Head of Investor Relations at Biogen Inc., where he held various finance leadership roles, including Vice President, Global Financial Planning and Analysis and Strategic Corporate Finance, and Vice President, U.S. Finance and Operations. He also held finance and strategy roles at Thomson Reuters Corporation and Fidelity Investments.
Mike Halpin, Chief Operating Officer
Mike Halpin oversees Vericel's day-to-day operations and is responsible for ensuring the complex manufacturing and distribution of products. He previously held roles at Sanofi and Genzyme Corporation, including vice president, North American region regulatory head for Sanofi Genzyme's rare disease, immuno-inflammatory, multiple sclerosis, and other business unit products. He also served as vice president, regulatory affairs for Genzyme's biosurgery division, with regulatory oversight of products such as Carticel®, Epicel®, and MACI®.
Jonathan Hopper, Chief Medical Officer
Dr. Jonathan Hopper joined Vericel in August 2018. He has over 15 years of experience in the clinical research industry. His previous roles include Senior Medical Director, Orthopedic Clinical Development for Ferring Pharmaceuticals, and Vice President, Global Medical Director for Stryker Corporation. Dr. Hopper also possesses significant medical device regulatory experience, having served as a Senior Medical Officer for the UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency.
Patrick Fowler, Senior Vice President, Corporate Development and Strategy
Patrick Fowler joined Vericel in 2021 with over 15 years of business development, strategy, and operations experience in the biotechnology and medical technology industries. Before Vericel, he was Head, North America Strategy, Operations & New Product Development for Sanofi (formerly Genzyme Corporation), where he guided business development, lifecycle management, and go-to-market strategy efforts for General Medicines and Established Products. He also held several corporate development roles at Genzyme.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Dependence on MACI and Potential for Capped Demand: Vericel's future growth largely hinges on the successful scaling and adoption of MACI, its autologous cellularized scaffold product for knee cartilage repair. The demand for Vericel's products, including Epicel and NexoBrid, may be limited due to their specialized and "needs-based" nature in niche markets, potentially capping future upside if new patient populations or expanded indications are not successfully addressed.
- Operational and Manufacturing Challenges: The company is exposed to risks related to its manufacturing operations, including potential disruptions in the supply chain, changes in customer demand, and significant fluctuations in quarterly and annual results. Furthermore, the transition to and qualification of new manufacturing facilities, such as the Burlington plant for MACI, introduces execution risks. Delays in qualification or higher fixed costs and operational complexities could outpace revenue growth if utilization lags, impacting the company's ability to meet demand.
- Regulatory Hurdles: As a biopharmaceutical company, Vericel's products are subject to stringent FDA regulations. Obtaining and maintaining regulatory approvals for existing products and for new indications, such as MACI for ankle cartilage defects, presents significant risks. Any delays or failures in securing these crucial approvals could adversely affect Vericel's product development, commercialization efforts, and overall growth trajectory.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Vericel Corporation operates in the United States with several key products addressing specific medical markets.
For their sports medicine product, MACI (autologous cultured chondrocytes on porcine collagen membrane), the addressable market for knee cartilage repair in the U.S. is estimated to be over $3 billion annually. Some estimates for MACI's total addressable market in the U.S., considering procedure volume and cost, range from $7.6 billion to $13.5 billion annually. Additionally, there is a potential for an extra $1 billion U.S. addressable market if MACI's indication expands to include ankle cartilage defects.
In the severe burn care market, Vericel's products include Epicel and NexoBrid. The U.S. total addressable market for their burn care franchise, which encompasses both Epicel and NexoBrid, is estimated at $600 million, with $300 million attributed to Epicel and $300 million to NexoBrid. Epicel is a permanent skin replacement for patients with deep dermal or full-thickness burns covering 30% or more of their total body surface area. NexoBrid, indicated for eschar removal in adults and pediatric patients with deep partial-thickness and/or full-thickness thermal burns, has an addressable market of $300 million in the U.S.
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Vericel (NASDAQ: VCEL) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives:
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Expanded Adoption and Utilization of MACI: Vericel anticipates continued revenue growth from its MACI product for knee cartilage repair, particularly through the increasing adoption of the arthroscopic MACI Arthro technique, which received FDA approval and launched in 2024. This method allows surgeons to deliver the MACI implant through smaller incisions, expanding its market. The company is also focusing on targeting more surgeons and increasing the number of MACI biopsies and conversion rates, supported by a recently expanded MACI sales force.
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Expansion of MACI into New Indications: A significant long-term growth driver for MACI is its potential expansion into new anatomical indications beyond the knee. Vericel is advancing a pivotal ankle trial (MASCOT) and plans to initiate a Phase III clinical study for MACI Ankle in the second half of 2025 or fourth quarter of 2026, aiming to tap into a substantial addressable market for ankle cartilage repair.
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Continued Growth and Market Penetration of the Burn Care Franchise: The company's burn care portfolio, consisting of Epicel and NexoBrid, is expected to be a strong revenue driver. NexoBrid, which received FDA approval for a pediatric indication and is early in its launch phase, is gaining traction with increased hospital orders and Pharmacy and Therapeutics (P&T) committee approvals. Vericel aims to leverage its unique burn portfolio to expand the number of burn centers and surgeons utilizing both Epicel and NexoBrid. Additionally, there is potential for a BARDA (Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority) agreement for NexoBrid stockpiling and development, which could further bolster this segment.
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International Expansion for MACI: Vericel is pursuing international market entry for MACI. This includes plans for a UK launch via the MHRA's (Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency) recognition pathway, with a regulatory submission anticipated in mid-2026 for a potential 2027 launch. This geographic expansion represents a new market opportunity for the company's leading sports medicine product.
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Increased Manufacturing Capacity: The FDA approval of Vericel's new Burlington, Massachusetts, facility to commence commercial manufacturing of MACI in the second quarter of 2026 is crucial for supporting future revenue growth. This facility is designed to become the primary global manufacturing site for MACI and Epicel, significantly enhancing production capabilities to meet rising demand and enable the company's expansion strategies.
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Share Issuance
- Total shares outstanding have increased by 3 million over the last three years (ending Q4 2025).
Capital Expenditures
- Vericel has engaged in ongoing capital spending on property, plant, and equipment, and other investments, contributing to a steady cash outflow and negative cash flow from investing in several quarters.
- A significant portion of capital expenditures has been directed towards the new Burlington facility for MACI commercial manufacturing.
- Increased operating expenses in 2025 were partly attributable to additional costs associated with the new Burlington facility, including depreciation and manufacturing start-up activities for MACI.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Vericel Earnings Notes | 12/31/2026 | |
| How Low Can Vericel Stock Really Go? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Why Vericel Stock Moved: VCEL Stock Has Gained 43% Since 2022 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Favorable Change In Revenues | 08/08/2025 | |
| VCEL Dip Buy Analysis | 07/10/2025 | |
| Vericel (VCEL) Valuation Ratios Comparison | 05/15/2025 | |
| Vericel Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 54.2% in 2024 and 11.8% 3-yr compounded annual returns (above peer average) | 03/07/2025 | |
| Now Is Not The Time To Buy Vericel Stock | 02/28/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | 09/04/2025 |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 36.50 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.7 |
| Rev LTM | 146 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5 |
| FCF LTM | 22 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 14 |
| CFO LTM | 29 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 51 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 16.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 14.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 19.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 661.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 255.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.3% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $45.05 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 02/04/1997 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -6.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $40.27 | $37.07 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 11.9% | 21.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 41.9% | 48.2% |
| Downside Capture | -77.95 | 95.74 |
| Upside Capture | 45.37 | 91.63 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -2.0% | 26.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.33 | -0.36 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 1.14 | 1.17 |
| Up Beta | -0.18 | 0.33 | 1.27 | 1.33 | 1.66 | 1.37 |
| Down Beta | 0.80 | 0.11 | -0.58 | 0.72 | 0.51 | 0.80 |
| Up Capture | 101% | 25% | 106% | 93% | 114% | 139% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 15 | 23 | 38 | 66 | 125 | 376 |
| Down Capture | -248% | -195% | -40% | 75% | 121% | 107% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 6 | 18 | 25 | 58 | 124 | 370 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VCEL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VCEL | 11.7% | 48.0% | 0.38 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 20.9% | 15.7% | 1.02 | 43.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.6% | 12.7% | 1.00 | 26.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.2% | 28.1% | 0.61 | 7.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 34.7% | 19.1% | 1.42 | -17.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.8% | 14.1% | 0.69 | 37.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -46.2% | 42.9% | -1.32 | 12.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VCEL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VCEL | -1.3% | 52.7% | 0.17 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 6.4% | 15.0% | 0.25 | 41.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 46.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.0% | 18.4% | 0.75 | 5.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.6% | 19.5% | 0.38 | 3.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.0% | 18.9% | 0.06 | 45.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.3% | 53.4% | 0.47 | 23.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VCEL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VCEL | 36.7% | 63.0% | 0.75 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 10.0% | 16.6% | 0.49 | 35.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 39.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.3% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 1.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.2% | 17.9% | 0.32 | 9.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 32.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.1% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 12.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/10/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -4.5% | -10.7% | -1.3% |
| 2/26/2026 | 1.6% | -5.7% | -16.9% |
| 11/6/2025 | 4.2% | 8.7% | 0.3% |
| 7/31/2025 | -14.1% | -10.7% | -11.7% |
| 5/8/2025 | 3.5% | 4.5% | 7.0% |
| 2/27/2025 | -6.1% | -2.5% | -12.8% |
| 11/7/2024 | 4.1% | 15.5% | 17.3% |
| 8/1/2024 | -5.9% | -10.3% | 2.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 13 |
| # Negative | 15 | 15 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 4.1% | 4.8% | 8.8% |
| Median Negative | -4.4% | -6.6% | -7.5% |
| Max Positive | 20.8% | 34.5% | 22.9% |
| Max Negative | -23.4% | -15.5% | -21.6% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -4.5% | -10.7% | -1.3% |
| 2/26/2026 | 1.6% | -5.7% | -16.9% |
| 11/6/2025 | 4.2% | 8.7% | 0.3% |
| 7/31/2025 | -14.1% | -10.7% | -11.7% |
| 5/8/2025 | 3.5% | 4.5% | 7.0% |
| 2/27/2025 | -6.1% | -2.5% | -12.8% |
| 11/7/2024 | 4.1% | 15.5% | 17.3% |
| 8/1/2024 | -5.9% | -10.3% | 2.0% |
| 5/8/2024 | -3.7% | -2.0% | -7.5% |
| 2/29/2024 | -4.4% | -5.5% | 8.8% |
| 1/9/2024 | 0.1% | 1.4% | 22.9% |
| 11/8/2023 | -3.4% | 0.7% | -6.2% |
| 8/2/2023 | -1.4% | -6.6% | -7.3% |
| 5/10/2023 | 4.1% | 0.7% | 3.1% |
| 2/23/2023 | 7.3% | 5.2% | 1.0% |
| 11/9/2022 | -23.4% | 1.0% | 1.7% |
| 8/3/2022 | -0.3% | -13.8% | -21.6% |
| 5/4/2022 | -1.0% | -15.5% | -12.2% |
| 2/24/2022 | 20.8% | 34.5% | 12.2% |
| 11/9/2021 | -2.2% | -4.1% | -5.7% |
| 8/4/2021 | -4.9% | -9.7% | 9.2% |
| 5/5/2021 | -4.3% | -15.5% | -7.5% |
| 2/24/2021 | 4.4% | -1.2% | 8.8% |
| 11/5/2020 | 2.5% | 17.3% | 18.5% |
| 8/5/2020 | -5.4% | -4.2% | -5.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 13 |
| # Negative | 15 | 15 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 4.1% | 4.8% | 8.8% |
| Median Negative | -4.4% | -6.6% | -7.5% |
| Max Positive | 20.8% | 34.5% | 22.9% |
| Max Negative | -23.4% | -15.5% | -21.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/24/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/09/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/24/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/11/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/25/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/05/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/06/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/12/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Total Revenue | 326.00 Mil | 331.00 Mil | 336.00 Mil | 3.1% | Raised | Guidance: 321.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 MACI Revenue | 282.00 Mil | 285.00 Mil | 288.00 Mil | 0.7% | Raised | Guidance: 283.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Burn Care Revenue | 44.00 Mil | 46.00 Mil | 48.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Gross Margin | 75.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 75.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 27.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 27.0% for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Total Revenue | 316.00 Mil | 321.00 Mil | 326.00 Mil | 17.2% | Higher New | Actual: 274.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 MACI Revenue | 280.00 Mil | 283.00 Mil | 286.00 Mil | 18.7% | Higher New | Actual: 238.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Gross Margin | 75.0% | 1.0% | Higher New | Actual: 74.0% for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 27.0% | 1.0% | Higher New | Actual: 26.0% for 2025 | |||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Total Revenue | 272.00 Mil | 274.00 Mil | 276.00 Mil | ||||
| 2025 MACI Revenue | 237.50 Mil | 238.50 Mil | 239.50 Mil | ||||
| 2025 Gross Margin | 74.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 74.0% for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 26.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 26.0% for 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 6/22/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Halpin, Michael | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 6222026 | 40.24 | 10,000 | 402,400 | 653,820 | Form |
| 2 | Flynn, Sean C | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 6222026 | 40.21 | 15,000 | 603,150 | 66,226 | Form |
| 3 | Hopper, Jonathan Mark | Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 6042026 | 35.00 | 4,375 | 153,125 | 2,651,355 | Form |
| 4 | McLaughlin, Kevin F | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 32.83 | 7,000 | 229,775 | 600,698 | Form | |
| 5 | Wotton, Paul K | Direct | Sell | 5132026 | 32.74 | 10,000 | 327,425 | 615,624 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Halpin, Michael | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 6222026 | 40.24 | 10,000 | 402,400 | 653,820 | Form |
| 2 | Flynn, Sean C | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 6222026 | 40.21 | 15,000 | 603,150 | 66,226 | Form |
| 3 | Hopper, Jonathan Mark | Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 6042026 | 35.00 | 4,375 | 153,125 | 2,651,355 | Form |
| 4 | McLaughlin, Kevin F | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 32.83 | 7,000 | 229,775 | 600,698 | Form | |
| 5 | Wotton, Paul K | Direct | Sell | 5132026 | 32.74 | 10,000 | 327,425 | 615,624 | Form | |
| 6 | Mara, Joseph Anthony JR | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5082026 | 40.50 | 5,000 | 202,500 | 850,864 | Form |
| 7 | Siegal, Jonathan | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 5082026 | 40.50 | 1,422 | 57,591 | 45,279 | Form |
| 8 | Siegal, Jonathan | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 5082026 | 38.00 | 3,433 | 130,454 | 96,520 | Form |
| 9 | Hopper, Jonathan Mark | Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 4062026 | 35.00 | 3,472 | 121,520 | 2,644,460 | Form |
| 10 | Hagen, Heidi | Direct | Sell | 3252026 | 32.41 | 15,000 | 486,150 | 1,032,258 | Form | |
| 11 | Flynn, Sean C | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 35.18 | 21,421 | 753,530 | 44,394 | Form |
| 12 | Halpin, Michael | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 35.30 | 10,305 | 363,766 | 567,624 | Form |
| 13 | McLaughlin, Kevin F | Direct | Sell | 2132026 | 34.66 | 7,000 | 242,620 | 523,366 | Form | |
| 14 | Wotton, Paul K | Direct | Sell | 12042025 | 37.83 | 2,500 | 94,575 | 968,524 | Form | |
| 15 | Hopper, Jonathan Mark | Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 12042025 | 39.14 | 1,652 | 64,659 | 2,605,237 | Form |
| 16 | Wotton, Paul K | Direct | Sell | 12042025 | 37.97 | 2,500 | 94,925 | 1,067,033 | Form | |
| 17 | Halpin, Michael | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 11132025 | 40.41 | 2,642 | 106,763 | 643,812 | Form |
| 18 | McLaughlin, Kevin F | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 38.59 | 7,000 | 270,130 | 582,709 | Form | |
| 19 | Halpin, Michael | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 11102025 | 40.47 | 7,358 | 297,778 | 644,768 | Form |
| 20 | Hopper, Jonathan Mark | Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 9042025 | 35.77 | 10,000 | 357,700 | 2,373,805 | Form |
| 21 | McLaughlin, Kevin F | Direct | Sell | 8082025 | 35.92 | 7,000 | 251,440 | 542,392 | Form | |
| 22 | Hopper, Jonathan Mark | Chief Medical Officer | Direct | Sell | 6042025 | 40.09 | 10,000 | 400,900 | 2,655,441 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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