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Rani Therapeutics (RANI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.535 | Market Cap: $56.1 Mil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology

Rani Therapeutics (RANI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.535
Market Cap: $56.1 Mil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -64%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -67%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -153%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -46 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3797%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, Biotechnology & Genomics, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
  Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 61%
2   Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 189%
3   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2584%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2604%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -162%
5   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 277%
6   Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 23%
0 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -64%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, Biotechnology & Genomics, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -67%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -153%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -46 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3797%
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 61%
5 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 189%
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2584%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2604%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -162%
8 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 277%
9 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 23%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

RANI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The approximate 218% stock movement for Rani Therapeutics (RANI) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, can be attributed to several key developments.

1. Collaboration and License Agreement with Chugai Pharmaceutical Co. Rani Therapeutics announced in October 2025 a collaboration and license agreement with Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., potentially worth up to $1.085 billion. This deal involves developing an oral product combining Rani's RaniPill platform with Chugai's rare disease antibody. The agreement includes an upfront payment of $10 million, with potential for up to $75 million in technology transfer and development milestones, up to $100 million in sales milestones, and single-digit royalties on product sales. Chugai also holds options to expand the agreement to include up to five additional drug targets, which could bring the total deal value to over $1 billion. This news significantly boosted investor confidence, leading to a substantial premarket surge in the stock.

2. Oversubscribed $60.3 Million Private Placement Concurrently with the Chugai collaboration in October 2025, Rani Therapeutics closed an oversubscribed private placement, raising approximately $60.3 million. This financing round was led by Samsara BioCapital and included participation from other institutional investors as well as the company's Founder and Chairman, Mir Imran, who converted $6.0 million of outstanding debt into equity. The successful private placement demonstrated strong investor confidence and provided significant capital.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
RANI Return---64%-44%-59%1%-92%
Peers Return2%-1%6%8%-0%2%17%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
RANI Win Rate-60%33%42%42%40% 
Peers Win Rate13%8%13%12%10%90% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
RANI Max Drawdown---66%-69%-61%-70% 
Peers Max Drawdown-2%-5%0%-0%-1%-2% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventRANIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-94.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1791.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN


In The Past

Rani Therapeutics's stock fell -94.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/18/2021. A -94.7% loss requires a 1791.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Rani Therapeutics (RANI)

Better Bets than Rani Therapeutics (RANI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to RANI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Rani Therapeutics

Peers to compare with:

Financials

RANIVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameRani The.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Mkt Price1.62463.132.541.0711.0721.226.80
Mkt Cap0.1118.4----59.2
Rev LTM111,7230-0101
Op Inc LTM-46-92-5--93-70-70
FCF LTM-313,337-6--60-64-31
FCF 3Y Avg-432,064-10----10
CFO LTM-313,718-6--60-64-31
CFO 3Y Avg-432,419-10----10

Growth & Margins

RANIVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameRani The.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Rev Chg LTM-10.3%----10.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-10.5%----10.5%
Rev Chg Q-11.0%----11.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.0%2.7%----1.3%
Op Mgn LTM-3,796.8%-0.8%----700.7%-700.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-26.2%----26.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM168.2%1.0%----84.6%
CFO/Rev LTM-2,584.2%31.7%----635.6%-635.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-23.1%----23.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-2,604.5%28.5%----636.5%-636.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-19.8%----19.8%

Valuation

RANIVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameRani The.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Mkt Cap0.1118.4----59.2
P/S15.68.5----12.1
P/EBIT-0.422.4----11.0
P/E-0.627.2----13.3
P/CFO-0.626.9----13.2
Total Yield-158.1%3.7%-----77.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%----0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-87.7%2.3%-----42.7%
D/E1.20.0----0.6
Net D/E0.6-0.0----0.3

Returns

RANIVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameRani The.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
1M Rtn-24.7%8.7%---9.9%--9.9%
3M Rtn233.7%16.8%--12.5%-16.8%
6M Rtn189.3%3.9%----96.6%
12M Rtn-17.3%1.3%-----8.0%
3Y Rtn-79.7%44.1%-----17.8%
1M Excs Rtn-24.6%8.7%---9.9%--9.9%
3M Excs Rtn246.8%11.3%--4.5%-11.3%
6M Excs Rtn174.6%-10.8%----81.9%
12M Excs Rtn-33.4%-14.6%-----24.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-152.6%-25.9%-----89.3%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8,312,590
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202567.3%
Average Daily Volume10,586,738
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1
Basic Shares Quantity36,542,000
Short % of Basic Shares22.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025513202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024331202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241114202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024506202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023320202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023811202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022322202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221110202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022810202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022511202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021331202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211116202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0IMRAN MIR A10272025Buy0.602,083,3341,260,4171,260,417Form
1South Cone Investments Limited Partnership10222025Sell2.411,923,0004,637,31415,383,426Form