PayPal (PYPL)
Market Price (7/17/2026): $55.58 | Market Cap: $50.7 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Financials | Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
PayPal (PYPL)
Market Price (7/17/2026): $55.58Market Cap: $50.7 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.8%, FCF Yield is 11% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 6.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.5 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 17 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 43% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, Cybersecurity, and AI in Financial Services. Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -40%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -89% | Key risksPYPL key risks include [1] intense competition eroding market share in its core branded checkout business and [2] navigating the specific regulatory landscape for its PYUSD stablecoin. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.8%, FCF Yield is 11% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 6.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.5 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 17 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 43% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, Cybersecurity, and AI in Financial Services. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -40%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -89% |
| Key risksPYPL key risks include [1] intense competition eroding market share in its core branded checkout business and [2] navigating the specific regulatory landscape for its PYUSD stablecoin. |
Qualitative Assessment
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PayPal (PYPL) stock has gained about 25% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Performance.
PayPal reported robust results for its fiscal Q1 2026, which concluded on March 31, 2026. The company's Earnings Per Share (EPS) reached $1.34, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.27 by $0.07. Additionally, revenue saw a 7.2% year-over-year increase, totaling $8.35 billion, which also surpassed analysts' expectations of $8.05 billion. This positive earnings surprise and strong top-line growth contributed significantly to positive market sentiment and the stock's upward movement.
2. Strategic Reorganization Focused on Growth, AI, and Crypto.
On April 29, 2026, PayPal announced a major strategic reorganization of its business and executive leadership team. This initiative involved transitioning to a simplified three-business operating model: Checkout Solutions & PayPal, Consumer Financial Services & Venmo, and Payment Services & Crypto. The restructuring also included the appointment of a Chief AI Transformation & Simplification Officer, emphasizing the company's commitment to leveraging artificial intelligence and streamlining operations for accelerated growth. The new Payment Services & Crypto division aims to unify processing capabilities and digital assets, including the PYUSD stablecoin.
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PayPal (PYPL) stock has gained about 25% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Performance.
PayPal reported robust results for its fiscal Q1 2026, which concluded on March 31, 2026. The company's Earnings Per Share (EPS) reached $1.34, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.27 by $0.07. Additionally, revenue saw a 7.2% year-over-year increase, totaling $8.35 billion, which also surpassed analysts' expectations of $8.05 billion. This positive earnings surprise and strong top-line growth contributed significantly to positive market sentiment and the stock's upward movement.
2. Strategic Reorganization Focused on Growth, AI, and Crypto.
On April 29, 2026, PayPal announced a major strategic reorganization of its business and executive leadership team. This initiative involved transitioning to a simplified three-business operating model: Checkout Solutions & PayPal, Consumer Financial Services & Venmo, and Payment Services & Crypto. The restructuring also included the appointment of a Chief AI Transformation & Simplification Officer, emphasizing the company's commitment to leveraging artificial intelligence and streamlining operations for accelerated growth. The new Payment Services & Crypto division aims to unify processing capabilities and digital assets, including the PYUSD stablecoin.
3. Reported Takeover Offer.
A significant catalyst occurred on July 15, 2026, when Reuters reported that Stripe and private equity firm Advent International had submitted a joint offer to acquire PayPal for $60.50 per share. This proposal valued PayPal at more than $53 billion and represented approximately a 28% premium to the stock's closing price on the previous day. The news of a potential acquisition, though not yet finalized, caused PayPal's stock to surge over 15%, reflecting a re-evaluation of its intrinsic value by the market.
4. Involvement in Open USD Stablecoin Initiative.
PayPal has joined Visa and Mastercard in backing Open USD, a new U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin. This strategic partnership is expected to integrate with PayPal's extensive digital wallets and merchant network, reinforcing the company's position in the evolving digital currency landscape. This initiative signals PayPal's commitment to future growth opportunities in digital finance and could create new revenue streams.
5. Significant Insider Stock Award.
On June 15, 2026, Frank Keller, the President of Checkout Solutions & PayPal, received a substantial stock award. This transaction involved 146,778 shares, valued at $6.24 million based on a price of $42.49 per share. Such a significant insider award to a key executive indicates strong internal confidence in the company's strategic direction and future performance, aligning management's interests with shareholder returns.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 25.8% change in PYPL stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/16/2026 was primarily driven by a 27.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 45.08 | 56.73 | 25.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 33,172 | 33,734 | 1.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.8% | 15.0% | -4.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.0 | 10.2 | 27.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 932 | 913 | 2.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 25.8% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PYPL | 25.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.4% | 20.8% |
| Sector (XLF) | 14.9% | 38.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.2% change in PYPL stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/16/2026 was primarily driven by a -8.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 58.01 | 56.73 | -2.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 32,862 | 33,734 | 2.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.0% | 15.0% | 0.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.2 | 10.2 | -8.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 950 | 913 | 4.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.2% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PYPL | -2.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.4% | 28.6% |
| Sector (XLF) | 4.1% | 31.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -23.0% change in PYPL stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/16/2026 was primarily driven by a -35.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 73.68 | 56.73 | -23.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 31,889 | 33,734 | 5.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.3% | 15.0% | 5.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.0 | 10.2 | -35.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 986 | 913 | 8.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -23.0% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PYPL | -23.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.5% | 36.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 9.7% | 38.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -14.2% change in PYPL stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/16/2026 was primarily driven by a -62.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 66.16 | 56.73 | -14.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 28,075 | 33,734 | 20.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.6% | 15.0% | 55.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.6 | 10.2 | -62.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,129 | 913 | 23.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -14.2% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PYPL | -14.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.3% | 49.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 75.9% | 49.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PYPL Return | -19% | -62% | -14% | 39% | -31% | -4% | -76% |
| Peers Return | 11% | -48% | 140% | 32% | 33% | -10% | 117% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PYPL Win Rate | 50% | 25% | 58% | 58% | 50% | 29% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 32% | 65% | 53% | 60% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 57% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PYPL Max Drawdown | -42% | -65% | -42% | -16% | -37% | -35% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -60% | -31% | -31% | -35% | -35% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: V, MA, SHOP, AFRM, SOFI. See PYPL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/16/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PYPL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.8% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 307 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -25.3% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 490 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -31.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -13.4% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 13 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.4% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 154 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -24.3% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.1% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 174 days | 15 days |
In The Past
PayPal's stock fell -2.9% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 2.9% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | PYPL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.8% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 307 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -25.3% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 490 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -31.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.4% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 154 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -24.3% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.1% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 174 days | 15 days |
In The Past
PayPal's stock fell -2.9% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 2.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About PayPal (PYPL)
PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) operates a global technology platform that facilitates digital payments for both consumers and merchants. The company essentially simplifies the process of sending and receiving money online and in-person, acting as a secure intermediary for transactions worldwide. Its core business revolves around enabling convenient and efficient financial exchanges across various digital channels.
The company offers a comprehensive suite of payment solutions under multiple prominent brands. Its flagship "PayPal" service allows individuals and businesses to conduct online transactions, while "Venmo" specializes in peer-to-peer payments. Other key brands include "Braintree" for merchant payment processing, "Xoom" for international money transfers, and "Zettle" for in-person point-of-sale solutions. These services collectively cater to a vast international customer base across approximately 200 markets, supporting transactions in around 100 currencies, and allowing users to hold balances and withdraw funds globally.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for PayPal (PYPL):
- Think of it as the Visa or Mastercard for online payments, but also a digital wallet to hold and send money.
- It's like a global Venmo that also acts as a universal checkout button for online stores.
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- PayPal: The core digital payments platform enabling consumers and merchants to send and receive payments globally.
- PayPal Credit: A revolving credit line offered to consumers for online purchases, managed through their PayPal account.
- Braintree: A payment gateway that provides companies with the ability to accept payments online and in-app.
- Venmo: A popular mobile app for peer-to-peer payments, allowing users to send and receive money easily among friends and family.
- Xoom: An international digital money transfer service that allows users to send money, pay bills, and reload phones abroad.
- Zettle: Provides point-of-sale (POS) solutions, including card readers and payment software, primarily for small businesses to accept in-person payments.
- Hyperwallet: A global payout platform designed to help businesses send payments to their workers, sellers, and service providers worldwide.
- Honey: A browser extension that automatically finds and applies coupon codes and deals for online shoppers.
- Paidy: A buy now, pay later (BNPL) service primarily for the Japanese market, allowing customers to make purchases and pay later.
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PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) operates a two-sided network, serving both merchants and consumers. However, given the extensive range of consumer-facing products and services mentioned in its description (PayPal, PayPal Credit, Venmo, Xoom, Honey, Paidy) and the emphasis on allowing consumers to send, receive, withdraw, and hold funds, PayPal primarily serves a vast base of individual customers.
The major categories of individual customers that PayPal serves include:
- Digital Transactors and Online Shoppers: These are individuals who use PayPal, Venmo, and Paidy to make secure online purchases from e-commerce merchants, pay bills, and manage subscriptions. They value the convenience, speed, and security of digital payments, often leveraging features like buyer protection.
- Peer-to-Peer (P2P) Senders and Receivers: This category includes individuals who utilize platforms like PayPal and Venmo to send and receive money directly from friends, family, or other individuals. This covers transactions such as splitting expenses, sending gifts, or casual payments.
- International Money Transfer Users: Individuals, particularly those with family or business ties across borders, who use services like Xoom (a PayPal service) to send money internationally. They rely on PayPal's platform for reliable and convenient cross-border remittances.
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- Visa Inc. (V)
- Mastercard Incorporated (MA)
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
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Enrique Lores, President and CEO
Enrique Lores assumed the role of President and CEO of PayPal on March 1, 2026. He has been a member of PayPal's Board for nearly five years and served as Board Chair since July 2024. Prior to joining PayPal, Mr. Lores spent over six years as President and CEO of HP Inc., where he successfully guided the company through a period of strategic transition and innovation. During his tenure at HP, he expanded the business beyond its traditional PC and printing segments into services, subscriptions, and emerging AI-enabled solutions. He was also the lead architect of HP's separation into two companies.
Jamie Miller, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial and Operating Officer
Jamie Miller serves as Executive Vice President, Chief Financial and Operating Officer at PayPal, a role she assumed in February 2025, having initially joined as CFO in November 2023. She possesses over 30 years of experience in finance and corporate strategy, working with both public and private companies through dynamic and transformative periods. Before PayPal, Ms. Miller was the Global CFO of EY, where she was instrumental in leading the separation and initial public offering of its strategy, tax, and consulting business. From June 2021 to January 2023, she served as CFO of Cargill, overseeing all financial activities, corporate strategy, and business development. Ms. Miller spent 12 years at General Electric (GE), most notably as Senior Vice President and CFO, where she played a critical role in the company's financial turnaround, including stabilizing and deleveraging GE and executing a significant corporate transformation that involved efforts to shrink and recapitalize GE Capital. Her experience at GE also included leadership roles as CEO of GE Transportation, Chief Information Officer of GE, and Chief Accounting Officer. Earlier in her career, she was a Partner at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. Ms. Miller is currently a board member of Qualcomm.
John Kim, Executive Vice President, Chief Product Officer
John Kim joined PayPal as Executive Vice President, Chief Product Officer, effective September 26, 2022. In this role, he is responsible for PayPal's product strategy and development, spearheading customer-centric innovation and new product launches. Mr. Kim brings over two decades of experience in product management and technology leadership within the financial technology landscape. Prior to PayPal, he held significant positions at Expedia Group, including President of Expedia Marketplace and Chief Product Officer. His diverse background also includes experience with venture-backed startups, mid-sized companies, and globally recognized brands such as Yahoo!, Overture, Accenture, Bank of America, and Pelago.
Bimal Patel, Senior Vice President, General Counsel
Bimal Patel serves as Senior Vice President and General Counsel at PayPal, overseeing the company's global legal affairs and compliance programs to ensure business integrity and regulatory alignment. He joined PayPal in January 2021 and assumed the role of General Counsel on January 1, 2022. Mr. Patel's expertise spans corporate law and compliance, and he previously held significant roles at the U.S. Department of the Treasury. As Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Financial Institutions and Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for the Financial Stability Oversight Council, he was recognized as one of the "architects" of the emergency $660 billion Paycheck Protection Program in 2020. His career also includes experience at O'Melveny & Myers LLP.
Suzan Kereere, President, Global Markets
Suzan Kereere is the President of Global Markets at PayPal, where she leads the company's international payments and technology platforms, promoting equity and innovation at scale. Ms. Kereere has a distinguished career, having held executive leadership positions at prominent companies such as 3M, Fiserv, Visa, and American Express. At Fiserv, she served as EVP of Global Business Solutions, where she was responsible for a global team of over 7,000 employees and oversaw a merchant business generating more than $6 billion in revenue. Her experience at Visa included leadership in merchant sales and acquiring, and at American Express, she managed extensive teams and substantial billing volumes in various senior roles. She holds an MBA from Columbia Business School and a BA in Economics from Tufts University.
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Key Risks to PayPal (PYPL)
The key risks to PayPal Holdings, Inc. include intense competition and challenges to market share, macroeconomic headwinds impacting consumer spending, and regulatory scrutiny alongside operational and legal risks.
The most significant risk stems from intense competition and market share challenges within the highly competitive digital payments sector. PayPal faces robust competition from both established financial institutions and innovative fintech companies, such as Apple Pay, Google Pay, Stripe, Square, Adyen, and Affirm. This competition is particularly acute in key areas like branded checkout services and Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) offerings, leading to slower growth in its core branded checkout business, declining customer engagement, and pressure on transaction margins.
Secondly, PayPal is significantly exposed to macroeconomic headwinds and shifts in consumer spending patterns. The company's performance is highly correlated with overall economic health. Factors such as inflationary pressures, softer consumer spending, and potential reductions in retail media spending act as headwinds, negatively impacting PayPal's revenue growth, especially in its branded transactions.
Finally, regulatory scrutiny and associated operational and legal risks pose a substantial threat. Operating in a heavily regulated industry, PayPal encounters continuous challenges related to data privacy, cybersecurity, anti-money laundering (AML), and consumer protection. The company was fined $2 million in 2022 for cybersecurity lapses, and it has faced securities class action lawsuits alleging misleading statements regarding growth projections and inadequate disclosure of risks. Additionally, its credit products, like BNPL, carry inherent risks of loan losses, and maintaining compliance with diverse international regulatory standards presents ongoing operational challenges.
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Increasing Dominance of Mobile Wallets (Apple Pay, Google Pay): These platforms offer highly integrated, seamless payment experiences directly from the operating system or device. As they gain wider acceptance for both in-store and online transactions, they can bypass third-party payment options like PayPal during checkout. This threatens PayPal's "top-of-wallet" position and its ability to act as the primary intermediary for digital transactions, potentially relegating it to a backend processor for merchants rather than a direct consumer choice. The emerging threat lies in their expanding ubiquity and user preference, which could erode PayPal's brand visibility and transaction volume at the point of sale.
Proliferation of Account-to-Account (A2A) Payments and Open Banking Initiatives: Driven by regulatory frameworks (e.g., PSD2 in Europe, FedNow in the US) and fintech innovation, A2A payments enable direct transfers between bank accounts, often bypassing traditional card networks and their associated fees. For merchants, these direct payment rails can offer lower transaction costs and faster settlement. As A2A payment solutions become more mature and widely adopted, they present a clear emerging threat by offering a more cost-effective alternative to PayPal's existing payment processing services, potentially disintermediating PayPal from a significant portion of digital transactions.
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PayPal (Overall Digital Payments Platform)
The global digital payment market size was valued at USD 95.5 trillion in 2022 and is projected to reach USD 457.8 trillion by 2032. This market encompasses the total transaction value facilitated by digital payment methods worldwide.Venmo (Peer-to-Peer (P2P) Payments)
The global P2P payment market was valued at USD 3.21 trillion in 2023 and is projected to be worth USD 13 trillion by the end of 2032. This represents the total value of money transferred directly between individuals through digital platforms.Xoom (International Money Transfer/Remittance)
The global remittance market was valued at USD 738.62 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to project robust growth to USD 1031.45 billion by 2029. This market includes the total value of money transferred by individuals, primarily across borders, to their home countries.Braintree (Payment Processing Solutions)
The global payment processing solutions market size was valued at USD 66.8 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 198.9 billion by 2034. This market represents the revenue generated by companies providing services for authorizing, clearing, and settling payment transactions.Zettle (Point of Sale (POS) Solutions)
The global POS terminal solution market size was valued at USD 72.5 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 128.4 billion by 2034. This market includes integrated hardware and software systems that facilitate secure and efficient payment processing for businesses at the point of sale.Honey and Paidy (Online Shopping/E-commerce Related Services, including Buy Now Pay Later)
The global E-commerce market size was accounted at USD 21.62 trillion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 83.19 trillion by 2035. This market covers the total value of goods and services purchased through internet-enabled transactions. Specific addressable market sizes for Honey (shopping tools/deals) and Paidy (BNPL in Japan) were not separately identified as distinct global market segments with comprehensive figures in the provided search results. PayPal Credit also falls under the broader category of credit or Buy Now Pay Later services, for which a distinct global addressable market size was not available.AI Analysis | Feedback
PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several strategic initiatives focused on enhancing its core offerings, expanding its market reach, and leveraging its vast ecosystem. Key drivers include:
- Revitalizing Branded Checkout and Enhancing Consumer Experience: PayPal is concentrating on improving its core "branded checkout" experience to increase transaction volumes and combat competition. A significant part of this strategy involves the introduction of "Fastlane," designed to provide a quicker, one-click checkout experience for consumers, thereby boosting conversion rates for merchants.
- Expanding International Presence and Cross-Border Payment Capabilities: The company is strategically focused on international expansion, particularly in regions such as Europe, Brazil, the Middle East, and Africa, where e-commerce growth is robust. Initiatives like "PayPal World," expected to launch in Fall 2025, aim to create a unified infrastructure that connects various digital wallets and payment systems globally, simplifying international transactions and capturing new revenue streams from cross-border spending.
- Growth and Monetization of Venmo and Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) Services: Venmo continues to be a strong growth engine, with plans to expand its monetization through services like Venmo Debit and "Pay with Venmo." The Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) segment is also a significant contributor, with PayPal targeting a compound annual growth rate of over 20% for this business, increasing its total payment volume and overall utility of the PayPal wallet.
- Scaling Merchant Services and Value-Added Offerings: PayPal is enhancing its offerings for businesses by improving and scaling "PayPal Complete Payments" for small and medium-sized businesses globally. The company is also unifying its merchant offerings into a single platform called "PayPal Open," which streamlines operations and offers value-added services such as fraud prevention, risk management, and data analytics to help businesses grow.
- Leveraging Data and Artificial Intelligence for Personalized Commerce and Advertising: PayPal is investing heavily in artificial intelligence to personalize commerce experiences for both consumers and merchants. This includes offering tailored recommendations, targeted discounts, and streamlining transactions. Furthermore, the recently launched "PayPal Ads" platform is a capital-light, high-margin business line that is expected to become a meaningful contributor by leveraging PayPal's extensive first-party purchase data for digital advertising.
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Share Repurchases
- In 2024, PayPal repurchased approximately $6 billion worth of shares, amounting to 92 million shares.
- PayPal's Board of Directors authorized a new $15 billion stock repurchase program in 2024, with no expiration date.
- For the fiscal year 2025, the company deployed $6 billion in share buybacks, reducing outstanding shares by over 7%.
Share Issuance
- PayPal Holdings' shares outstanding declined by 6.83% in 2025 to 0.968 billion, down from 1.039 billion in 2024.
- Shares outstanding also decreased by 6.14% in 2024 from 1.107 billion in 2023.
Outbound Investments
- PayPal acquired Honey Science Corp. for $4 billion in 2020.
- In 2021, PayPal acquired Paidy, a Japanese Buy Now Pay Later lender, for approximately $2.7 billion.
- PayPal entered an agreement to acquire Cymbio, a multi-channel orchestration and commerce enablement platform, in January 2026.
Capital Expenditures
- PayPal's capital expenditures for fiscal years 2021 to 2025 averaged $754.4 million.
- Annual capital expenditures were $908 million in 2021, $706 million in 2022, $623 million in 2023, $683 million in 2024, and $852 million in 2025.
- Capital expenditure requirements are considered minimal, contributing to the company's significant free cash flow generation.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 102.45 |
| Mkt Cap | 107.4 |
| Rev LTM | 23,050 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,362 |
| FCF LTM | 3,812 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,559 |
| CFO LTM | 4,268 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,941 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 24.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 21.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 24.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.4% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 19.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 15.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 22.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 107.4 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| P/Op Inc | 24.4 |
| P/EBIT | 24.5 |
| P/E | 34.9 |
| P/CFO | 26.8 |
| Total Yield | 2.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 9.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 10.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 1.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 2.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 67.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 12.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -6.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -17.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 3.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $56.73 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 51.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/20/2015 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -26.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $44.45 | $52.62 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 27.6% | 7.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 47.2% | 42.7% |
| Downside Capture | 2.73 | 165.38 |
| Upside Capture | 59.17 | 99.49 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 18.1% | 36.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.90 | 0.59 | 0.76 | 1.04 | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Up Beta | 0.94 | 0.47 | 0.77 | 0.74 | 0.61 | 1.13 |
| Down Beta | 2.12 | 1.68 | 1.64 | 1.32 | 1.56 | 1.33 |
| Up Capture | 31% | -31% | 23% | 56% | 80% | 117% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 16 | 30 | 58 | 120 | 389 |
| Down Capture | 62% | 73% | 78% | 143% | 150% | 109% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 33 | 67 | 132 | 362 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PYPL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PYPL | -21.6% | 42.7% | -0.45 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 11.2% | 14.6% | 0.51 | 37.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.8% | 12.6% | 1.29 | 35.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.1% | 28.0% | 0.61 | -5.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 27.9% | 18.9% | 1.16 | -8.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 16.9% | 14.0% | 0.88 | 19.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -45.3% | 42.8% | -1.29 | 27.2% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PYPL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PYPL | -28.0% | 42.9% | -0.63 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 11.6% | 18.5% | 0.49 | 50.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 17.1% | 0.60 | 56.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.7% | 18.4% | 0.73 | 1.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.5% | 19.5% | 0.33 | 4.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.2% | 18.9% | 0.07 | 41.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 14.5% | 53.5% | 0.45 | 31.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PYPL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PYPL | 4.8% | 39.2% | 0.25 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 14.1% | 22.0% | 0.58 | 45.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 60.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 10.9% | 16.1% | 0.55 | 4.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.5% | 18.0% | 0.28 | 13.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 42.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 57.8% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 23.8% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/8/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/5/2026 | -7.7% | -10.6% | -15.4% |
| 2/3/2026 | -20.3% | -21.4% | -10.4% |
| 10/28/2025 | 3.9% | -2.7% | -12.7% |
| 7/29/2025 | -8.7% | -13.1% | -10.3% |
| 4/29/2025 | 2.1% | 5.6% | 10.0% |
| 2/4/2025 | -13.2% | -12.6% | -22.4% |
| 10/29/2024 | -4.0% | -6.5% | 4.0% |
| 7/30/2024 | 8.6% | 2.6% | 21.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 8 | 8 |
| # Negative | 13 | 16 | 16 |
| Median Positive | 4.3% | 8.3% | 10.4% |
| Median Negative | -10.5% | -8.1% | -10.3% |
| Max Positive | 11.5% | 13.4% | 21.5% |
| Max Negative | -24.6% | -31.6% | -42.4% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/5/2026 | -7.7% | -10.6% | -15.4% |
| 2/3/2026 | -20.3% | -21.4% | -10.4% |
| 10/28/2025 | 3.9% | -2.7% | -12.7% |
| 7/29/2025 | -8.7% | -13.1% | -10.3% |
| 4/29/2025 | 2.1% | 5.6% | 10.0% |
| 2/4/2025 | -13.2% | -12.6% | -22.4% |
| 10/29/2024 | -4.0% | -6.5% | 4.0% |
| 7/30/2024 | 8.6% | 2.6% | 21.5% |
| 4/30/2024 | 1.4% | -2.1% | -8.9% |
| 2/7/2024 | -11.2% | -6.9% | -6.7% |
| 11/1/2023 | 6.6% | 6.6% | 15.5% |
| 8/2/2023 | -12.3% | -15.3% | -14.6% |
| 5/8/2023 | -12.7% | -17.6% | -15.2% |
| 2/9/2023 | 3.0% | -2.2% | -7.4% |
| 11/3/2022 | -1.8% | 13.4% | -3.8% |
| 8/2/2022 | 9.2% | 5.4% | 4.3% |
| 4/27/2022 | 11.5% | 12.2% | -2.7% |
| 2/1/2022 | -24.6% | -31.6% | -42.4% |
| 11/8/2021 | -10.5% | -7.4% | -14.0% |
| 7/28/2021 | -6.2% | -8.8% | -9.4% |
| 5/5/2021 | 1.9% | -3.0% | 6.3% |
| 2/3/2021 | 7.4% | 12.4% | -5.1% |
| 11/2/2020 | -4.2% | -1.6% | 13.2% |
| 7/29/2020 | 4.3% | 9.9% | 10.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 8 | 8 |
| # Negative | 13 | 16 | 16 |
| Median Positive | 4.3% | 8.3% | 10.4% |
| Median Negative | -10.5% | -8.1% | -10.3% |
| Max Positive | 11.5% | 13.4% | 21.5% |
| Max Negative | -24.6% | -31.6% | -42.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/03/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/04/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/08/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/10/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/03/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/04/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/08/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/10/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/03/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/09/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/05/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/03/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/06/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/25/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 07/25/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/8/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 GAAP EPS | -0.05 | ||||||
| Q2 2026 Non-GAAP EPS | -0.09 | ||||||
| 2026 GAAP EPS | -0.05 | ||||||
| 2026 Non-GAAP EPS | -0.03 | -0.02 | |||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 GAAP EPS | |||||||
| Q1 2026 Non-GAAP EPS | |||||||
| 2026 GAAP EPS | |||||||
| 2026 Non-GAAP EPS | |||||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/28/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 GAAP EPS | 1.23 | 1.25 | 1.27 | 7.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.16 for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Non-GAAP EPS | 1.27 | 1.29 | 1.31 | 7.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.2 for Q3 2025 | |
| 2025 GAAP EPS | 5.11 | 5.13 | 5.15 | 3.1% | Raised | Guidance: 4.97 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Non-GAAP EPS | 5.35 | 5.37 | 5.39 | 2.8% | Raised | Guidance: 5.22 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Transaction Margin Dollar Growth | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | ||||
Insider Activity
Updated 7/16/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miller, Jamie S | Chief Fin & Op Officer | Direct | Buy | 6162026 | 41.53 | 6,129 | 254,537 | 3,193,823 | Form |
| 2 | Natali, Chris | SVP, Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 6042026 | 42.65 | 552 | 23,543 | 75,490 | Form |
| 3 | Kereere, Suzan | President, Global Markets | Direct | Sell | 6042026 | 42.79 | 3,379 | 144,579 | 1,325,688 | Form |
| 4 | Keller, Frank | Pres., Checkout Sol. & PayPal | Direct | Sell | 6042026 | 42.54 | 4,612 | 196,194 | 1,768,260 | Form |
| 5 | Kereere, Suzan | President, Global Markets | Direct | Sell | 5202026 | 44.20 | 4,162 | 183,944 | 1,369,330 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miller, Jamie S | Chief Fin & Op Officer | Direct | Buy | 6162026 | 41.53 | 6,129 | 254,537 | 3,193,823 | Form |
| 2 | Natali, Chris | SVP, Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 6042026 | 42.65 | 552 | 23,543 | 75,490 | Form |
| 3 | Kereere, Suzan | President, Global Markets | Direct | Sell | 6042026 | 42.79 | 3,379 | 144,579 | 1,325,688 | Form |
| 4 | Keller, Frank | Pres., Checkout Sol. & PayPal | Direct | Sell | 6042026 | 42.54 | 4,612 | 196,194 | 1,768,260 | Form |
| 5 | Kereere, Suzan | President, Global Markets | Direct | Sell | 5202026 | 44.20 | 4,162 | 183,944 | 1,369,330 | Form |
| 6 | Natali, Chris | SVP, Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 4292026 | 49.46 | 1,337 | 66,128 | 78,444 | Form |
| 7 | Keller, Frank | Pres., Checkout Sol. & PayPal | Direct | Sell | 4292026 | 49.96 | 10,732 | 536,205 | 2,076,819 | Form |
| 8 | Natali, Chris | SVP, Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 44.73 | 2,208 | 98,764 | 50,992 | Form |
| 9 | Kereere, Suzan | President, Global Markets | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 46.02 | 13,515 | 621,984 | 1,425,892 | Form |
| 10 | Keller, Frank | EVP, GM, Large Ent & Mer Plat. | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 46.02 | 29,581 | 1,361,370 | 2,373,205 | Form |
| 11 | Natali, Chris | SVP, Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 40.49 | 1,213 | 49,114 | 16,358 | Form |
| 12 | Keller, Frank | EVP, GM, Large Ent & Mer Plat. | Direct | Sell | 2092026 | 40.20 | 3,478 | 139,816 | 2,072,993 | Form |
| 13 | Kereere, Suzan | President, Global Markets | Direct | Sell | 11202025 | 59.84 | 4,162 | 249,057 | 1,854,045 | Form |
| 14 | Webster, Aaron | EVP, Global Chief Risk Officer | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 66.29 | 9,282 | 615,310 | 2,366,509 | Form |
| 15 | Kereere, Suzan | President, Global Markets | Direct | Sell | 11042025 | 68.87 | 12,500 | 860,935 | 2,133,948 | Form |
| 16 | Scotti, Diego | EVP, GM Consumer Group | Direct | Sell | 10312025 | 68.97 | 3,838 | 264,702 | 1,171,710 | Form |
| 17 | Kereere, Suzan | President, Global Markets | Direct | Sell | 10312025 | 69.52 | 5,000 | 347,622 | 3,023,129 | Form |
| 18 | Natali, Chris | VP, Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 10312025 | 69.13 | 1,374 | Form | ||
| 19 | Kereere, Suzan | President, Global Markets | Direct | Sell | 8202025 | 69.39 | 4,162 | 288,792 | 3,364,134 | Form |
| 20 | Scotti, Diego | EVP, GM, Consumer Group | Direct | Sell | 8012025 | 69.12 | 3,838 | 265,285 | 1,174,289 | Form |
| 21 | Natali, Chris | VP, Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 8012025 | 69.35 | 7,102 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 17, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comprehensive Financial Management LLC | $1.2 Bil | 39.0% | 38 | Hold | 13F |
| Punch Card Management L.P. | $28.4 Mil | 10.5% | 5 | Hold | 13F |
| Black Creek Investment Management Inc. | $143.5 Mil | 7.7% | 25 | Hold | 13F |
| Lindsell Train Ltd | $189.0 Mil | 6.0% | 27 | Hold | 13F |
| Nixon Capital, LLC | $12.0 Mil | 4.1% | 22 | TRIM -26.0% | 13F |
| Lind Value II ApS | $12.5 Mil | 2.8% | 8 | ADD +78.6% | 13F |
| Robertson Opportunity Capital, LLC | $6.3 Mil | 2.4% | 30 | Hold | 13F |
| Permit Capital, LLC | $5.9 Mil | 2.0% | 19 | Hold | 13F |
| Sava Penzisko Drushtvo A.D. Skopje | $5.0 Mil | 1.5% | 26 | ADD +28.3% | 13F |
| Contrarius Group Holdings Ltd | $10.0 Mil | 0.6% | 47 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goodnow Investment Group, LLC | $39.3 Mil | 3.7% | 22 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| CTC LLC | $31.4 Mil | 2.9% | 38 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Amiral Gestion | $13.8 Mil | 5.1% | 27 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Troy Asset Management Ltd | $13.4 Mil | 0.3% | 31 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Wedgewood Partners Inc | $12.6 Mil | 2.4% | 21 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| HS Management Partners, LLC | $10.1 Mil | 2.2% | 24 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Redwood Grove Capital, LLC | $9.5 Mil | 2.7% | 22 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Nutshell Asset Management Ltd | $6.9 Mil | 2.5% | 34 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Nixon Capital, LLC | $12.0 Mil | 4.1% | 22 | TRIM -26.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comprehensive Financial Management LLC | $1.2 Bil | 39.0% | 38 | Hold | 13F |
| Lindsell Train Ltd | $189.0 Mil | 6.0% | 27 | Hold | 13F |
| Black Creek Investment Management Inc. | $143.5 Mil | 7.7% | 25 | Hold | 13F |
| Punch Card Management L.P. | $28.4 Mil | 10.5% | 5 | Hold | 13F |
| Lind Value II ApS | $12.5 Mil | 2.8% | 8 | ADD +78.6% | 13F |
| Nixon Capital, LLC | $12.0 Mil | 4.1% | 22 | TRIM -26.0% | 13F |
| Contrarius Group Holdings Ltd | $10.0 Mil | 0.6% | 47 | New | 13F |
| Robertson Opportunity Capital, LLC | $6.3 Mil | 2.4% | 30 | Hold | 13F |
| Permit Capital, LLC | $5.9 Mil | 2.0% | 19 | Hold | 13F |
| Sava Penzisko Drushtvo A.D. Skopje | $5.0 Mil | 1.5% | 26 | ADD +28.3% | 13F |
PYPL Trade Sentinel
Neutral / Watch
CONVICTION RATIONALE
PayPal is in a deep, multi-year transition under new leadership. While its financial foundation is solid, with strong cash flow funding significant buybacks, its core branded checkout business is stagnant. The investment case depends entirely on executing a turnaround that has been announced but is not yet visible in financial results or forward guidance.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Transactional Take-RateTotal Payment Volume (TPV) x Transaction Take Rate The mix of transaction types (e.g., higher-margin cross-border vs. domestic), the mix between branded and unbranded processing, and the growth of value-added services like credit.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The company is in the early stages of a major reorganization to address acknowledged execution issues and competitive pressures.
- A strategic reorganization was announced on April 29, 2026 to accelerate execution.
- The plan is expected to deliver at least $1.5 billion in gross annualized run-rate savings.
- Overall TPV growth accelerated to 8% currency-neutral in Q1 2026, up from 6% in Q4 2025.
- The company maintains a massive scale with 439 million active accounts.
- Free cash flow was over the last twelve months.
PRIMARY RISK
PayPal continues to lose market share, with its 5.8% TTM revenue growth lagging far behind payment networks and e-commerce platforms. A negative mix shift to lower-margin services is pressuring profitability, with transaction take rate falling 6 basis points last quarter.
- Branded checkout TPV grew only 2% currency-neutral in Q1 2026.
- Q2 2026 guidance is for a high single-digit, or 9%, decline in non-GAAP EPS.
- Transaction take rate declined by 6 basis points to 1.62% in Q1 2026.
- TTM revenue growth of 5.8% compares to 14.4% for Visa and 31.8% for Shopify.
- Management acknowledged that its 'execution has not been what it needs to be.'
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Total Payment Volume (TPV) Growth | 11% year-over-year growth in Q1 2026 - Accelerating | Total Payment Volume growth has shown a clear pattern of acceleration over the past year on a currency-neutral basis, rising from 5% in Q2 2025 to 8% in the most recent quarter. This indicates strengthening overall platform activity. |
| Online Branded Checkout TPV Growth | 2% year-over-year currency-neutral growth in Q1 2026 - Stagnant | Online Branded Checkout TPV growth decelerated sharply from 5% in mid-2025 to just 1% by year-end. The most recent quarter's 2% growth represents a slight improvement off a low base but remains significantly below prior levels and overall e-commerce trends, indicating persistent weakness in the core product. |
| Number of Payment Transactions | 6,475 million (Q1 2026) | The total count of payments on the platform, reflecting customer activity and engagement. |
| Active Accounts | 439 million (As of March 31, 2026) | The number of accounts that have completed a transaction in the past 12 months, representing the size of the user base. |
Platform Scale vs. Core Product Decay
BULL VIEW
Bulls focus on the accelerating overall TPV growth, now at 8% currency-neutral, as proof the 439-million-user network is still highly relevant and provides a strong foundation for a turnaround.
CORE TENSION
Can accelerating 8% overall TPV growth, driven by lower-margin services, offset the stagnant 2% growth in the core, higher-margin branded checkout business?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bears. Weak Q2 guidance for a 9% non-GAAP EPS decline suggests margin pressure from the negative mix shift is currently overwhelming total volume growth.
BEAR VIEW
Bears argue the stagnant 2% growth in the higher-margin branded checkout business is the real story, indicating a permanent loss of relevance and pricing power to competitors.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
10/26/2026 | Negative Earnings Reaction Watch: Any miss on revenue or transaction margin, or a downward revision to the already weak full-year guidance. |
10/26/2026 | Branded Checkout Stagnation Watch: The reported Q2 and Q3 branded checkout TPV growth figures in the next earnings release. |
10/26/2026 - 11/4/2026 | Peer Outperformance Highlights Weakness Watch: Peer earnings reports showing continued double-digit growth, creating a negative relative growth narrative for PayPal. |
10/26/2026 | Reorganization Execution Uncertainty Watch: Clarity on the new strategic plan, specific cost-saving milestones, and any signs of operational disruption. |
10/28/2026 | Peer Mastercard Earnings Watch: Peer Mastercard is scheduled to report earnings on 10/28/2026. |
11/2/2026 | Peer Shopify Earnings Watch: Peer Shopify is scheduled to report earnings on 11/2/2026. |
November 2026 | EU Credit Directive Effective Watch: The EU's revised Consumer Credit Directive, which will subject formerly unregulated credit products to new laws, will take effect. |
in the coming months | Savings Cadence Update Watch: Management plans to share more details on the cadence of savings from its reorganization and its reinvestment framework. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-15 | First Dividend Declared Details: In February 2026, the Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.14 per share, totaling approximately $130 million, paid on March 25, 2026. | +17.2% $47.37 -> $55.52 |
2026-07-02 | New Fiduciary Duty Investigation Details: On July 2, 2026, a law firm announced an investigation into whether certain officers and directors breached their fiduciary duties regarding misrepresentations of the company's branded checkout business. | +2.3% $44.07 -> $45.09 |
2026-06-15 | Venmo Integrates with The Knot Details: The Knot Worldwide announced Venmo as a payment option within its Wedding Registry, allowing users to send money for registry cash fund gifting. | +5.1% $41.53 -> $43.65 |
2026-05-05 | Q1 Earnings and Cost Savings Plan Details: On May 5, 2026, the company reported Q1 results, resulting in a -8.0% stock reaction. A cost savings program targeting at least $1.5 billion was announced. | -8.2% $50.22 -> $46.12 |
2026-04-29 | Strategic Reorganization Announced Details: On April 29, 2026, the company announced a strategic reorganization of its business and executive leadership team to accelerate execution and streamline decision-making. | +1.0% $49.48 -> $49.98 |
2026-02-03 | Q4 Earnings and CEO Change Details: On February 3, 2026, the company reported Q4 2025 results, leading to a -22.0% two-day stock reaction. A new CEO, Enrique Lores, was appointed, effective March 1. | -21.6% $52.00 -> $40.77 |
2026-01-20 | Tax Filing Partnership Announced Details: PayPal announced a partnership with april to allow U.S. PayPal Debit Mastercard customers to file their 2025 federal and state tax returns for free. | -1.8% $56.53 -> $55.54 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: PYPL trades at roughly 40% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (3.0x the market), around the 80th percentile of its own trailing year. A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
V - Visa
Higher-Quality NetworkVisa offers superior growth (14.4% TTM revenue growth) and profitability (67.1% operating margin vs. PayPal's 18.9%), reflecting a more dominant and structurally advantaged position in the global payments ecosystem.
SHOP - a business partner
Higher-Growth Commerce Platforma business partner is capturing the integrated SMB seller market with much faster revenue growth of 31.8%. It provides a complete commerce operating system where payments are a seamlessly integrated feature, not the destination.
A mature, large-scale payment network attempting to re-accelerate growth and expand margins through a strategic reorganization, cost-cutting, and a renewed focus on its consumer value proposition.
PayPal operates a massive two-sided network but has faced slowing growth and execution issues. New leadership is implementing a transformation focused on three core opportunities: checkout, consumer financial services, and payment services. The plan involves simplifying the organization, modernizing technology with AI, and cutting at least $1.5 billion in costs to fund reinvestment, aiming to improve profitability and cash flow.
Sustained acceleration in branded checkout TPV growth, expansion of operating margins, and evidence that cost savings are successfully funding growth initiatives.
Continued market share losses in online checkout, failure to achieve cost-saving targets, or further compression in transaction margins due to competitive pressure.
Short-term stock price fluctuations due to broad market sentiment or minor quarterly misses that don't alter the trajectory of the transformation plan.
Repricing Catalyst
Successful execution of the announced strategic reorganization and the cost savings program, which is expected to deliver at least $1.5 billion in gross annualized run-rate savings over the next two to three years.
PayPal — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Transaction & Payment Processing Services Resources |
| PYMNTS |
| Payments Dive |
| The Paypers |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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