Tearsheet

Peloton Interactive (PTON)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $6.575 | Market Cap: $2.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Leisure Facilities

Peloton Interactive (PTON)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $6.575
Market Cap: $2.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Leisure Facilities

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -107%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 122x
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 10%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.7%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -10%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.0%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Streaming Fitness Content, Show more.
  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 54%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.0%
4   Short seller report
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 10%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Streaming Fitness Content, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -107%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 122x
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.7%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -10%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.0%
7 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 54%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.0%
9 Short seller report

Valuation, Metrics & Events

PTON Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Decline in Connected Fitness Subscriptions

Peloton's Q1 FY2026 financial results, announced in early November 2025, revealed a year-over-year decrease of 164,000 in paid Connected Fitness Subscriptions, bringing the total to 2.732 million.

2. Year-over-Year Revenue Decline

During Q1 FY2026, Peloton reported total revenue of $551 million, representing a 6% decrease compared to the previous year.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PTON Return434%-76%-78%-23%43%-26%-77%
Peers Return39%17%-27%29%-10%-14%19%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PTON Win Rate83%25%42%42%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate50%38%25%55%37%45% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PTON Max Drawdown-31%-77%-81%-46%-53%-43% 
Peers Max Drawdown-38%-11%-37%-18%-31%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LULU, PLNT, ESCA, CLAR, NOMA. See PTON Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPTONS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-97.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven3793.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-41.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven71.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven34 days148 days

Compare to LULU, PLNT, ESCA, CLAR, NOMA


In The Past

Peloton Interactive's stock fell -97.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/13/2021. A -97.4% loss requires a 3793.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Peloton Interactive (PTON)

Better Bets than Peloton Interactive (PTON)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PTON. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Peloton Interactive

Peers to compare with:

Financials

PTONLULUPLNTESCACLARNOMAMedian
NamePeloton .Lululemo.Planet F.Escalade Clarus Nomadar  
Mkt Price6.67182.30108.4313.023.707.3210.17
Mkt Cap2.821.89.10.20.1-2.8
Rev LTM2,45610,9041,2882422561772
Op Inc LTM952,49537818-22-257
FCF LTM3801,16820327-7-0115
FCF 3Y Avg271,279198367-36
CFO LTM3921,91235828-1-0193
CFO 3Y Avg511,9643443813-51

Growth & Margins

PTONLULUPLNTESCACLARNOMAMedian
NamePeloton .Lululemo.Planet F.Escalade Clarus Nomadar  
Rev Chg LTM-8.7%9.2%14.4%-4.6%-4.8%--4.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-10.0%15.8%15.7%-8.4%-1.5%--1.5%
Rev Chg Q-6.0%6.5%13.0%0.1%3.3%-3.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.4%1.4%3.0%0.0%0.9%160.4%1.2%
Op Mgn LTM3.9%22.9%29.4%7.5%-8.7%-306.9%5.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-11.1%22.7%27.1%6.9%-14.9%-6.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.5%-0.5%1.2%1.3%0.9%485.7%1.0%
CFO/Rev LTM16.0%17.5%27.8%11.8%-0.3%-52.6%13.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg2.5%19.8%29.8%15.0%7.9%-15.0%
FCF/Rev LTM15.5%10.7%15.7%11.0%-2.8%-52.6%10.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg1.6%12.9%17.1%14.2%5.1%-12.9%

Valuation

PTONLULUPLNTESCACLARNOMAMedian
NamePeloton .Lululemo.Planet F.Escalade Clarus Nomadar  
Mkt Cap2.821.89.10.20.1-2.8
P/S1.52.66.70.70.5-1.5
P/EBIT121.911.421.59.5-6.0-11.4
P/E-35.715.942.113.6-1.7-13.6
P/CFO9.514.924.26.1-202.4-9.5
Total Yield-2.8%6.3%2.4%12.1%-57.3%-2.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%4.8%2.9%-0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-2.1%3.6%3.3%18.7%0.3%-3.3%
D/E0.50.10.30.10.1-0.1
Net D/E0.20.00.20.1-0.1-0.1

Returns

PTONLULUPLNTESCACLARNOMAMedian
NamePeloton .Lululemo.Planet F.Escalade Clarus Nomadar  
1M Rtn-8.3%10.2%18.0%11.3%11.3%-36.3%10.7%
3M Rtn-12.2%-8.2%6.5%7.2%7.1%-6.5%
6M Rtn-10.7%-45.6%3.0%-9.5%10.8%--9.5%
12M Rtn-32.4%-46.5%9.1%-14.0%-16.5%--16.5%
3Y Rtn-49.8%-52.8%37.9%48.9%-52.5%--49.8%
1M Excs Rtn-8.2%10.2%18.0%11.3%11.3%-36.3%10.8%
3M Excs Rtn-23.2%-16.9%-0.0%-2.2%-2.7%--2.7%
6M Excs Rtn-25.4%-60.3%-11.8%-24.2%-4.0%--24.2%
12M Excs Rtn-49.0%-56.7%-4.6%-23.1%-29.7%--29.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-107.0%-122.6%-31.6%-27.6%-122.2%--107.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Subscription1,7091,6701,395872364
Connected Fitness Products9921,1302,1883,1501,462
Total2,7002,8003,5824,0221,826


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity72,844,932
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-1.1%
Average Daily Volume13,409,332
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.43
Basic Shares Quantity413,108,105
Short % of Basic Shares17.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-K 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024206202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024822202410-K 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023201202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023823202310-K 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022201202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022907202210-K 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021208202210-Q 12/31/2021