Peloton Interactive (PTON)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $6.575 | Market Cap: $2.7 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Leisure Facilities
Peloton Interactive (PTON)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $6.575Market Cap: $2.7 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Leisure Facilities
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -107% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 122x |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 10% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.7%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -10%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.0% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Streaming Fitness Content, Show more. | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 54% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.0% | ||
| Short seller report |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 10% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Streaming Fitness Content, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -107% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 122x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.7%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -10%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.0% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 54% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.0% |
| Short seller report |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PTON Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Decline in Connected Fitness Subscriptions
Peloton's Q1 FY2026 financial results, announced in early November 2025, revealed a year-over-year decrease of 164,000 in paid Connected Fitness Subscriptions, bringing the total to 2.732 million.
2. Year-over-Year Revenue Decline
During Q1 FY2026, Peloton reported total revenue of $551 million, representing a 6% decrease compared to the previous year.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PTON Return | 434% | -76% | -78% | -23% | 43% | -26% | -77% |
| Peers Return | 39% | 17% | -27% | 29% | -10% | -14% | 19% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PTON Win Rate | 83% | 25% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 38% | 25% | 55% | 37% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PTON Max Drawdown | -31% | -77% | -81% | -46% | -53% | -43% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -38% | -11% | -37% | -18% | -31% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LULU, PLNT, ESCA, CLAR, NOMA. See PTON Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PTON | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -97.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 3793.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -41.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 148 days |
Compare to LULU, PLNT, ESCA, CLAR, NOMA
In The Past
Peloton Interactive's stock fell -97.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/13/2021. A -97.4% loss requires a 3793.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PTON. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Peloton Interactive
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 10.17 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.8 |
| Rev LTM | 772 |
| Op Inc LTM | 57 |
| FCF LTM | 115 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 36 |
| CFO LTM | 193 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 51 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -4.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.8 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/EBIT | 11.4 |
| P/E | 13.6 |
| P/CFO | 9.5 |
| Total Yield | 2.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -9.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -16.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | -49.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 10.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -2.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -24.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -29.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -107.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8222024 | 10-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2012024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8232023 | 10-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2012023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 9072022 | 10-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2082022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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