Tearsheet

Xponential Fitness (XPOF)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $7.54 | Market Cap: $264.7 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Leisure Facilities

Xponential Fitness (XPOF)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $7.54
Market Cap: $264.7 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Leisure Facilities

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Boutique Fitness Services, and Experiential Retail.
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -72%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -134%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.1%
1  Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17%
Key risks
XPOF key risks include [1] ongoing government probes and class-action lawsuits over alleged misrepresentation of franchisee metrics, Show more.
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Boutique Fitness Services, and Experiential Retail.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -72%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -134%
2 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17%
3 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.1%
4 Key risks
XPOF key risks include [1] ongoing government probes and class-action lawsuits over alleged misrepresentation of franchisee metrics, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

XPOF Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The stock of Xponential Fitness (XPOF) experienced a decline of 10.5% between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025, influenced by a combination of factors including mixed financial performance in Q3 2025, analyst downgrades, and concerns over operational challenges.

1. Mixed Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results: Xponential Fitness reported its Q3 2025 earnings on November 6, 2025, revealing a complex financial picture. While the company significantly beat Wall Street's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) and revenue expectations, the stock still fell 3.82% in aftermarket trading. This was partly due to a 2% year-over-year decline in total revenue, driven by a substantial 49% drop in equipment sales, despite a 17% increase in franchise revenue.

2. Decline in Same-Store Sales: In Q3 2025, Xponential Fitness experienced a 1% decline in North America same-store sales, a notable shift from positive growth in previous quarters. This indicated potential challenges in sustaining sales momentum at existing locations.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
XPOF Return12%-44%4%-45%
Peers Return-35%14%25%-12%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
XPOF Win Rate80%58%42%33%42% 
Peers Win Rate42%38%54%56%44% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
XPOF Max Drawdown-42%-61%-34%-59% 
Peers Max Drawdown-50%-26%-38%-27% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PLNT, LTH, PTON, LULU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventXPOFS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-72.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven268.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to FUN, NOMA, NTV, TRON, AS


In The Past

Xponential Fitness's stock fell -72.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/28/2023. A -72.8% loss requires a 268.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Xponential Fitness (XPOF)

Better Bets than Xponential Fitness (XPOF)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to XPOF. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
13.0%13.0%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.4%6.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.1%17.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
13.0%13.0%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.4%6.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.1%17.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Xponential Fitness

Peers to compare with:

Financials

XPOFPLNTLTHPTONLULUMedian
NameXponenti.Planet F.Life TimePeloton .Lululemo. 
Mkt Price7.53110.0025.986.13207.8725.98
Mkt Cap0.39.25.72.521.15.7
Rev LTM3151,2882,9132,45611,0732,456
Op Inc LTM49378439952,440378
FCF LTM14203713801,128203
FCF 3Y Avg18198-82271,34327
CFO LTM183587943921,861392
CFO 3Y Avg26344581512,025344

Growth & Margins

XPOFPLNTLTHPTONLULUMedian
NameXponenti.Planet F.Life TimePeloton .Lululemo. 
Rev Chg LTM-3.5%14.4%15.8%-8.7%8.8%8.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg13.2%15.7%19.5%-10.0%14.2%14.2%
Rev Chg Q-2.1%13.0%12.9%-6.0%7.1%7.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.5%3.0%3.2%-1.4%1.6%1.6%
Op Mgn LTM15.5%29.4%15.1%3.9%22.0%15.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg12.7%27.1%12.7%-11.1%22.4%12.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM7.2%1.2%1.0%0.5%-0.8%1.0%
CFO/Rev LTM5.8%27.8%27.2%16.0%16.8%16.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg8.4%29.8%22.6%2.5%20.1%20.1%
FCF/Rev LTM4.4%15.7%2.4%15.5%10.2%10.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.9%17.1%-4.1%1.6%13.4%5.9%

Valuation

XPOFPLNTLTHPTONLULUMedian
NameXponenti.Planet F.Life TimePeloton .Lululemo. 
Mkt Cap0.39.25.72.521.15.7
P/S0.96.72.11.51.91.9
P/EBIT-21.513.8121.9-21.5
P/E-5.842.121.1-35.712.112.1
P/CFO14.924.27.79.511.311.3
Total Yield-17.2%2.4%4.7%-2.8%8.3%2.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-3.3%-3.1%-2.1%--2.1%
D/E-0.30.70.5-0.5
Net D/E-0.20.60.2-0.2

Returns

XPOFPLNTLTHPTONLULUMedian
NameXponenti.Planet F.Life TimePeloton .Lululemo. 
1M Rtn29.8%7.6%5.4%-14.1%26.6%7.6%
3M Rtn-7.4%11.5%-6.6%-24.6%27.2%-6.6%
6M Rtn-6.8%2.1%-5.9%-1.4%-9.1%-5.9%
12M Rtn-51.4%8.0%11.0%-42.0%-46.8%-42.0%
3Y Rtn-65.5%45.6%110.7%-42.8%-35.3%-35.3%
1M Excs Rtn29.1%6.9%4.6%-14.9%25.9%6.9%
3M Excs Rtn-9.5%8.3%-9.4%-24.0%21.1%-9.4%
6M Excs Rtn-19.2%-10.2%-18.3%-13.8%-21.5%-18.3%
12M Excs Rtn-61.3%-1.5%3.1%-47.1%-58.0%-47.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-134.1%-22.2%26.2%-116.1%-105.1%-105.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil2024202320222021
Franchise business of its health and wellness brands318   
Equipment revenue 432321
Franchise marketing fund revenue 20147
Franchise revenue 1157448
Merchandise revenue 272017
Other service revenue 392414
Total318245155107


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil2024202320222021
Franchise business of its health and wellness brands-6   
Total-6   


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,812,199
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202514.3%
Average Daily Volume614,163
Days-to-Cover Short Interest9.46
Basic Shares Quantity35,110,000
Short % of Basic Shares16.6%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/6/20251.6%0.8%27.0%
8/7/2025-26.4%-12.7%-9.8%
3/13/2025-38.4%-28.1%-39.4%
11/7/202429.1%18.5%21.7%
8/1/2024-22.9%-15.5%-24.1%
2/29/202439.4%37.2%60.6%
11/7/2023-6.7%-9.5%-18.7%
8/3/2023-4.9%5.4%8.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive679
# Negative1097
Median Positive13.8%15.5%15.5%
Median Negative-10.1%-9.5%-17.7%
Max Positive39.4%37.2%60.6%
Max Negative-38.4%-28.1%-39.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251110202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025808202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025509202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024314202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024805202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024506202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023304202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023807202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022306202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221110202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022812202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022513202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021307202210-K 12/31/2021