Tearsheet

Provident Financial Services (PFS)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $20.03 | Market Cap: $2.6 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks

Provident Financial Services (PFS)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $20.03
Market Cap: $2.6 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Regional Banks

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 5.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%, FCF Yield is 24%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.5%, Dist 3Y High is -4.0%
 
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -37%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -4.8%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -66%
 
2 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41%
Moderate capital ratio
Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 12%
 
3 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 72%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 71%
  
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 31%
  
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Digital Payments.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 5.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%, FCF Yield is 24%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -37%
2 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41%
3 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 72%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 71%
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 31%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Digital Payments.
6 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.5%, Dist 3Y High is -4.0%
7 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -4.8%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -66%
8 Moderate capital ratio
Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 12%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

PFS Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback



1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Outperformance
Provident Financial Services exceeded Wall Street's revenue expectations for the third quarter of 2025, with sales increasing by 5.3% year over year to $221.8 million. The company also demonstrated strong net interest income and net interest margin performance.

2. Improved Asset Quality and Credit Performance
The company reported a reduction in net loan charge-offs compared to the previous year, indicating improvements in its asset quality and overall credit performance during the third quarter of 2025.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PFS Return-23%40%-8%-11%11%9%7%
Peers Return-2%12%-18%18%1%19%28%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PFS Win Rate42%75%33%50%42%40% 
Peers Win Rate22%25%28%35%27%51% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PFS Max Drawdown-60%-0%-18%-33%-24%-21% 
Peers Max Drawdown-19%-2%-23%-16%-10%-7% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPFSS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-46.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven86.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-60.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven154.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven412 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-23.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven30.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-59.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven146.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1724 days1480 days

Compare to NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU


In The Past

Provident Financial Services's stock fell -46.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/18/2022. A -46.4% loss requires a 86.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Provident Financial Services (PFS)

Better Bets than Provident Financial Services (PFS)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PFS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Provident Financial Services

Peers to compare with:

Financials

PFSNEWTATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameProviden.NewtekOneAmes Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
Mkt Price19.9611.3121.9516.4715.0917.4416.95
Mkt Cap2.60.30.2--84.21.4
Rev LTM8512696090268,967180
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM606-52020-843,65712
FCF 3Y Avg332-22916-52,31716
CFO LTM613-51920-443,94112
CFO 3Y Avg339-22818-52,50618

Growth & Margins

PFSNEWTATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameProviden.NewtekOneAmes Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
Rev Chg LTM40.9%21.8%13.1%-2.1%23.7%21.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg21.4%31.6%-2.3%-0.0%70.1%21.4%
Rev Chg Q5.3%20.7%19.4%-16.5%20.4%19.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.3%4.7%4.6%-4.0%5.0%4.6%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM72.0%-193.4%33.7%-4.2%17.4%44.0%25.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg48.3%-91.8%31.7%-19.2%37.8%31.7%
FCF/Rev LTM71.2%-193.4%33.0%-8.3%15.3%40.8%24.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg47.3%-91.9%27.6%-17.8%34.9%27.6%

Valuation

PFSNEWTATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameProviden.NewtekOneAmes Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
Mkt Cap2.60.30.2--84.21.4
P/S3.01.12.7--7.42.8
P/EBIT-------
P/E9.84.911.6--28.810.7
P/CFO4.1-0.67.9--16.86.0
Total Yield15.2%20.2%13.5%--3.5%14.4%
Dividend Yield5.0%0.0%4.9%--0.0%2.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg15.9%-76.1%9.6%--4.3%6.9%
D/E1.02.60.2--0.00.6
Net D/E-0.41.8-4.5---0.4-0.4

Returns

PFSNEWTATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameProviden.NewtekOneAmes Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
1M Rtn9.6%9.4%5.5%7.2%7.0%8.1%7.6%
3M Rtn1.9%-6.0%13.0%9.1%13.4%17.0%11.1%
6M Rtn23.8%10.7%29.3%--46.1%26.5%
12M Rtn1.7%-14.3%32.6%--49.4%17.2%
3Y Rtn4.5%-24.8%8.7%--291.0%6.6%
1M Excs Rtn9.7%9.4%5.5%7.2%7.1%8.2%7.7%
3M Excs Rtn-4.9%-12.1%4.9%1.3%9.3%11.9%3.1%
6M Excs Rtn9.1%-4.0%14.6%--31.3%11.8%
12M Excs Rtn-14.0%-30.2%21.1%--25.6%3.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-66.1%-94.1%-60.5%--240.5%-63.3%

FDIC Bank Data

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment479505453385362
Total479505453385362


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,669,800
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202510.1%
Average Daily Volume745,317
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.92
Basic Shares Quantity130,506,517
Short % of Basic Shares2.8%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024426202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211109202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0LISTA GEORGEPres/CEO Prov Protection Plus11102025Sell18.358,262151,6051,993,840Form