PepsiCo (PEP)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $145.68 | Market Cap: $199.4 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages
PepsiCo (PEP)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $145.68Market Cap: $199.4 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.7%, Dividend Yield is 3.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.5% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -86% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.8 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.7%, Dividend Yield is 3.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.5% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.8 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -86% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PEP Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
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Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PEP Return | 12% | 21% | 7% | -3% | -8% | -1% | 27% |
| Peers Return | 7% | 7% | 13% | -8% | -1% | -12% | 3% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PEP Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 50% | 58% | 33% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 48% | 58% | 42% | 53% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PEP Max Drawdown | -23% | -13% | -11% | -11% | -8% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -11% | -8% | -21% | -8% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: KO, MDLZ, KDP, CPB, CAG. See PEP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PEP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -19.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -29.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 284 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -21.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 205 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -42.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1485 days | 1480 days |
Compare to KO, MDLZ, KDP, CPB, CAG
In The Past
PepsiCo's stock fell -19.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/12/2023. A -19.4% loss requires a 24.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PEP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -2.1% | -2.1% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.2% | 7.2% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -2.1% | -2.1% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.2% | 7.2% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for PepsiCo
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 42.58 |
| Mkt Cap | 55.5 |
| Rev LTM | 26,910 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,904 |
| FCF LTM | 1,944 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,246 |
| CFO LTM | 2,852 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,116 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 55.5 |
| P/S | 2.1 |
| P/EBIT | 14.3 |
| P/E | 21.9 |
| P/CFO | 16.3 |
| Total Yield | 7.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -11.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -9.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | -15.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -26.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -24.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -88.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PepsiCo Beverages North America (PBNA) | 27,626 | 26,213 | 25,276 | 22,559 | 21,730 |
| Frito-Lay North America (FLNA) | 24,914 | 23,291 | 19,608 | 18,189 | 17,078 |
| Europe | 13,234 | 12,724 | 13,038 | 11,922 | 11,728 |
| Latin America (LatAm) | 11,654 | 9,779 | 8,108 | 6,942 | 7,573 |
| Africa, Middle East and South Asia (AMESA) | 6,139 | 6,438 | 6,078 | 4,573 | 3,651 |
| Asia Pacific, Australia and New Zealand and China region (APAC) | 4,803 | 4,787 | 4,615 | 3,445 | 2,919 |
| Quaker Foods North America (QFNA) | 3,101 | 3,160 | 2,751 | 2,742 | 2,482 |
| Corporate unallocated expenses | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total | 91,471 | 86,392 | 79,474 | 70,372 | 67,161 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frito-Lay North America (FLNA) | 6,755 | 6,135 | 5,633 | 5,340 | 5,258 |
| PepsiCo Beverages North America (PBNA) | 2,584 | 5,426 | 2,442 | 1,937 | 2,179 |
| Latin America (LatAm) | 2,252 | 1,627 | 1,369 | 1,033 | 1,141 |
| Africa, Middle East and South Asia (AMESA) | 807 | 666 | 858 | 600 | 671 |
| Europe | 767 | -1,380 | 1,292 | 1,353 | 1,327 |
| Asia Pacific, Australia and New Zealand and China region (APAC) | 713 | 537 | 673 | 590 | 477 |
| Quaker Foods North America (QFNA) | 492 | 604 | 578 | 669 | 544 |
| Corporate unallocated expenses | -2,384 | -2,103 | -1,683 | -1,442 | -1,306 |
| Total | 11,986 | 11,512 | 11,162 | 10,080 | 10,291 |
Returns Analyses
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
