PEDEVCO (PED)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $0.52 | Market Cap: $47.5 MilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
PEDEVCO (PED)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $0.52Market Cap: $47.5 MilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 21%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 17%, FCF Yield is 30% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -86%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -127% | Penny stockMkt Price is 0.5 |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -14% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -0.8 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.3% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -41% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 21%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 17%, FCF Yield is 30% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -14% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -86%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -127% |
| Penny stockMkt Price is 0.5 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -0.8 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.3% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -41% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PED Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. PEDEVCO reported a significant net loss and decreased revenue for Q3 2025, contrasting with a net income in the prior year. The company's revenue for the third quarter of 2025 was $7.0 million, a decrease of $2.1 million from Q3 2024, and it posted a net loss of $325 thousand compared to a net income of $2.9 million in the same period of 2024. Operating expenses also rose by 12% to $7.8 million, leading to an operating loss of $834 thousand, a notable decline from the $2.9 million operating income in Q3 2024.
2. The company experienced a 13% decrease in production volumes during Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024. PEDEVCO produced an average of 1,471 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOEPD) in Q3 2025, down from 1,698 BOEPD in Q3 2024. This decline was primarily attributed to the sale of 17 operated wells in April 2025 and natural production declines from existing wells.
3. A transformative merger with Juniper Capital Advisors L.P. involved the issuance of a substantial amount of new shares, potentially leading to dilution for existing shareholders. As part of the merger, which closed on October 31, 2025, PEDEVCO issued 10,650,000 Series A Convertible Preferred Shares to Juniper, convertible into 106.5 million shares of common stock, representing approximately 53% of the combined entity. Additionally, a $35 million private placement of Preferred Shares will convert into 63,636,370 million shares of common stock.
4. PEDEVCO increased its debt significantly to fund the merger, impacting its financial leverage. The company's borrowing base under its existing $250 million reserve-based lending facility with Citibank increased from $20 million to $120 million, and approximately $87 million was drawn to help finance the transaction.
5. Commodity price pressures contributed to a challenging quarter and a decrease in the average realized sales price. The President and CEO of PEDEVCO, J. Douglas Schick, acknowledged that Q3 2025 was a challenging quarter due to commodity price pressures. The combined average realized sales price for the quarter was $51.46 per Boe, an 11% decrease compared with $57.97 per Boe in Q3 2024.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PED Return | -9% | -30% | 4% | -30% | 1% | -35% | -70% |
| Peers Return | -39% | 91% | 65% | 8% | -3% | -3% | 93% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PED Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 37% | 70% | 58% | 57% | 48% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PED Max Drawdown | -57% | -38% | -14% | -31% | -19% | -35% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -73% | -1% | 0% | -14% | -12% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: COP, CNQ, EOG, FANG, OXY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PED | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -73.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 279.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -59.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 145.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -81.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 428.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 763 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -87.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 680.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to COP, CNQ, EOG, FANG, OXY
In The Past
PEDEVCO's stock fell -73.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/28/2021. A -73.7% loss requires a 279.8% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| With PEDEVCO Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PED. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for PEDEVCO
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 67.13 |
| Mkt Cap | 53.0 |
| Rev LTM | 24,864 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,562 |
| FCF LTM | 4,334 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 5,456 |
| CFO LTM | 11,170 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 11,909 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -4.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 23.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 44.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 46.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 53.0 |
| P/S | 1.8 |
| P/EBIT | 7.8 |
| P/E | 10.5 |
| P/CFO | 4.6 |
| Total Yield | 12.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 5.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -11.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | -12.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -26.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -85.5% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8142025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5152025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3312025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11142024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5152024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3182024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8142023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5152023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3292023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8152022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5162022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11152021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |