Pure Cycle (PCYO)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $11.94 | Market Cap: $287.4 MilSector: Utilities | Industry: Water Utilities
Pure Cycle (PCYO)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $11.94Market Cap: $287.4 MilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Water Utilities
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -57% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -11% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, and Wastewater Management. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 50%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, and Wastewater Management. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -57% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -11% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PCYO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of Pure Cycle (PCYO) experienced an 18.2% movement between approximately August 31, 2025, and December 15, 2025. Here are key points that likely contributed to this movement:
1. Pure Cycle Announced Strong Financial Results for the Year Ended August 31, 2025. The company reported $13.1 million in net income, marking a 13% increase from 2024. Earnings per fully diluted common share rose to $0.54, up 12.5% from $0.48 in the prior year. This also represented their eighth consecutive year and twenty-fifth consecutive fiscal quarter with positive net income.
2. Significant Increase in Oil and Gas Royalty Income. Pure Cycle reported a substantial 738% increase in royalty income from its oil and gas mineral interest for the year ended August 31, 2025. This was attributed to six wells completed at Sky Ranch in 2024 that began producing during this fiscal year.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PCYO Return | -11% | 30% | -28% | -0% | 21% | -7% | -6% |
| Peers Return | -0% | 26% | -15% | 17% | -10% | -5% | 7% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PCYO Win Rate | 33% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 70% | 48% | 52% | 40% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PCYO Max Drawdown | -37% | -5% | -47% | -17% | -14% | -23% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -29% | -5% | -35% | -19% | -16% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GWRS, AWR, CWT, FOR, TRC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PCYO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -52.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 110.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 365 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -21.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 377 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -79.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 389.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3370 days | 1480 days |
Compare to CWT, MSEX, CWCO, AWK, WTRG
In The Past
Pure Cycle's stock fell -52.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/16/2021. A -52.5% loss requires a 110.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Pure Cycle Stock Jump Looks Great, But How Secure Is That Gain? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PCYO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -2.2% | -2.2% | -2.4% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -0.8% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | -3.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -2.2% | -2.2% | -2.4% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -0.8% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | -3.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Pure Cycle
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 21.52 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| Rev LTM | 346 |
| Op Inc LTM | 99 |
| FCF LTM | -54 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -28 |
| CFO LTM | 18 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 16 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 16.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 37.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -15.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -23.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| P/S | 4.3 |
| P/EBIT | 12.5 |
| P/E | 21.0 |
| P/CFO | 10.3 |
| Total Yield | 6.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -5.2% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -0.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -7.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -14.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -14.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -20.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -89.0% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/13/2025 | -1.6% | -2.1% | |
| 7/10/2025 | -2.3% | -3.9% | -6.6% |
| 4/10/2025 | -4.5% | -7.2% | -3.9% |
| 11/14/2024 | -2.1% | 5.8% | 1.0% |
| 7/11/2024 | 7.0% | 14.7% | 5.0% |
| 4/11/2024 | 1.8% | -1.5% | 4.6% |
| 11/16/2023 | -2.9% | 0.8% | 6.4% |
| 7/14/2023 | 6.2% | 11.9% | 7.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 6 | 9 | 8 |
| # Negative | 9 | 6 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 6.4% | 2.4% | 5.1% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -3.0% | -5.2% |
| Max Positive | 9.6% | 14.7% | 11.5% |
| Max Negative | -4.5% | -7.2% | -10.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 8312025 | 11122025 | 10-K 8/31/2025 |
| 5312025 | 7092025 | 10-Q 5/31/2025 |
| 2282025 | 4092025 | 10-Q 2/28/2025 |
| 11302024 | 1082025 | 10-Q 11/30/2024 |
| 8312024 | 11132024 | 10-K 8/31/2024 |
| 5312024 | 7102024 | 10-Q 5/31/2024 |
| 2292024 | 4102024 | 10-Q 2/29/2024 |
| 11302023 | 1162024 | 10-Q 11/30/2023 |
| 8312023 | 11152023 | 10-K 8/31/2023 |
| 5312023 | 7142023 | 10-Q 5/31/2023 |
| 2282023 | 4142023 | 10-Q 2/28/2023 |
| 11302022 | 1132023 | 10-Q 11/30/2022 |
| 8312022 | 11142022 | 10-K 8/31/2022 |
| 5312022 | 7112022 | 10-Q 5/31/2022 |
| 2282022 | 4112022 | 10-Q 2/28/2022 |
| 11302021 | 1102022 | 10-Q 11/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |