Ranpak (PACK)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.895 | Market Cap: $413.0 MilSector: Materials | Industry: Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers
Ranpak (PACK)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.895Market Cap: $413.0 MilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Vegan & Alternative Foods, Circular Economy & Recycling, Sustainable Consumption, and Automation & Robotics. Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -22 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5.7% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 81% | ||
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 47x | ||
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.9% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -13% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Vegan & Alternative Foods, Circular Economy & Recycling, Sustainable Consumption, and Automation & Robotics. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -22 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5.7% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 81% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 47x |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.9% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -13% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PACK Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock movement for Ranpak (PACK) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, can be attributed to several factors.
1. Q3 2025 Financial Results Showing Increased Net Loss: Ranpak Holdings Corp. reported a net loss of $10.4 million for the third quarter of 2025, compared to a net loss of $8.1 million in the prior year period. This widening loss, despite an increase in net revenue, could have negatively impacted investor sentiment.
2. Q3 2025 Earnings Call and Strategic Growth Amid Challenges: While the company reported an 8.0% year-over-year increase in net revenue for Q3 2025, reaching $99.6 million, and a 63.0% increase in Automation net revenue, the overall net loss deepened. Discussions during the Q3 2025 earnings call highlighted strategic growth efforts, but the persistent net loss may have been a concern.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PACK Return | 65% | 180% | -85% | 1% | 18% | -29% | -40% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 14% | 1% | -1% | -5% | 8% | 35% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PACK Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 33% | 42% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 58% | 45% | 42% | 47% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PACK Max Drawdown | -27% | 0% | -92% | -53% | -29% | -56% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -36% | -8% | -22% | -17% | -15% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SLGN, GEF, OI, TRS, BALL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PACK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -93.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1468.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -29.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 132 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -55.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 124.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 393 days | 120 days |
Compare to SLGN, GEF, OI, TRS, BALL
In The Past
Ranpak's stock fell -93.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -93.6% loss requires a 1468.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PACK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Ranpak
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 36.72 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.0 |
| Rev LTM | 6,206 |
| Op Inc LTM | 555 |
| FCF LTM | 67 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 70 |
| CFO LTM | 431 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 517 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 6.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.0 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/EBIT | 8.1 |
| P/E | 17.2 |
| P/CFO | 13.8 |
| Total Yield | 4.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.7% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 14.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -12.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -10.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -0.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -25.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -78.9% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3172025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3312023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |