Tearsheet

Old Second Bancorp (OSBC)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $20.625 | Market Cap: $1.1 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks

Old Second Bancorp (OSBC)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $20.625
Market Cap: $1.1 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Regional Banks

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.8%, FCF Yield is 11%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.6%, Dist 3Y High is -0.6%
Key risks
OSBC key risks include [1] potential loan losses from adverse economic conditions, Show more.
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -74%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -10%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -43%
 
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 28%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Community & Regional Banking. Themes include Local Business Lending, Community Real Estate Finance, and Personalized Client Services.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.8%, FCF Yield is 11%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -74%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 28%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Community & Regional Banking. Themes include Local Business Lending, Community Real Estate Finance, and Personalized Client Services.
5 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.6%, Dist 3Y High is -0.6%
6 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -10%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -43%
7 Key risks
OSBC key risks include [1] potential loan losses from adverse economic conditions, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

OSBC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points highlighting the reasons for Old Second Bancorp's (OSBC) stock movement during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025: 1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Beat. Old Second Bancorp reported third-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.53, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.51, and revenue of $95.88 million, exceeding the anticipated $80.45 million. This financial performance, particularly the strong revenue beat, likely contributed positively to investor sentiment.

2. Successful Integration of Evergreen Bank Group Acquisition. The company's third quarter 2025 results were significantly impacted by the July 1, 2025, acquisition of Bancorp Financial and its Evergreen Bank Group subsidiary, which was fully integrated by October 20, 2025. This acquisition was expected to drive incremental revenue growth, strengthen net interest margin, and enhance return on assets as integration completed, favorably impacting the quarter's net interest margin and increasing tangible book value.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
OSBC Return-25%26%29%-2%17%19%66%
Peers Return-19%50%-5%10%18%8%62%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
OSBC Win Rate50%67%58%50%58%58% 
Peers Win Rate47%68%40%52%52%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
OSBC Max Drawdown-54%-3%0%-30%-15%-18% 
Peers Max Drawdown-54%-3%-15%-28%-12%-24% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WTFC, BUSE, BY, MSBI, QCRH.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventOSBCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-36.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven57.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven540 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-53.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven116.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven350 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-26.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven36.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,151 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-86.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven627.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1,480 days

Compare to NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU


In The Past

Old Second Bancorp's stock fell -36.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/3/2023. A -36.5% loss requires a 57.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Old Second Bancorp (OSBC)

Better Bets than Old Second Bancorp (OSBC)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to OSBC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.1%5.1%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.6%4.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.1%5.1%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.6%4.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Old Second Bancorp

Peers to compare with:

Financials

OSBCWTFCBUSEBYMSBIQCRHMedian
NameOld Seco.Wintrust.First Bu.Byline B.Midland .QCR  
Mkt Price20.65141.1725.2030.7621.7386.5027.98
Mkt Cap1.19.52.21.40.51.31.3
Rev LTM3112,650636429321345387
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM961,113157129181207169
FCF 3Y Avg112760163149174280168
CFO LTM1021,150173135188263180
CFO 3Y Avg121815173153181316177

Growth & Margins

OSBCWTFCBUSEBYMSBIQCRHMedian
NameOld Seco.Wintrust.First Bu.Byline B.Midland .QCR  
Rev Chg LTM12.4%11.2%40.1%7.2%-16.9%-1.6%9.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg14.7%13.2%14.8%11.3%3.2%6.4%12.3%
Rev Chg Q35.1%13.3%65.7%12.6%-10.9%17.7%15.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM8.5%3.2%13.9%3.1%-2.9%4.5%3.9%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM32.8%43.4%27.1%31.4%58.7%76.5%38.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg42.0%33.2%34.5%38.8%50.5%91.7%40.4%
FCF/Rev LTM30.9%42.0%24.7%30.1%56.4%60.0%36.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg38.7%30.9%32.6%37.8%48.5%81.2%38.2%

Valuation

OSBCWTFCBUSEBYMSBIQCRHMedian
NameOld Seco.Wintrust.First Bu.Byline B.Midland .QCR  
Mkt Cap1.19.52.21.40.51.31.3
P/S2.93.33.22.91.23.73.1
P/EBIT-------
P/E12.911.320.19.9-2.510.510.9
P/CFO8.97.711.99.32.04.98.3
Total Yield9.0%8.9%5.0%11.5%-33.3%9.8%8.9%
Dividend Yield1.2%0.0%0.0%1.4%7.3%0.2%0.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg15.7%11.6%11.5%14.7%40.2%-14.7%
D/E0.30.50.10.41.5-0.4
Net D/E-0.7-0.5-0.1-0.8-2.0--0.7

Returns

OSBCWTFCBUSEBYMSBIQCRHMedian
NameOld Seco.Wintrust.First Bu.Byline B.Midland .QCR  
1M Rtn16.9%14.4%13.7%15.9%42.3%14.4%15.2%
3M Rtn15.7%5.8%4.0%8.9%23.6%11.2%10.0%
6M Rtn24.6%19.9%14.5%24.0%38.6%34.6%24.3%
12M Rtn15.5%10.1%2.4%1.5%-10.2%0.5%2.0%
3Y Rtn34.6%85.7%18.1%42.6%0.8%83.1%38.6%
1M Excs Rtn16.1%13.6%12.9%15.2%41.6%13.7%14.5%
3M Excs Rtn11.6%2.3%-0.0%4.1%18.6%7.8%6.0%
6M Excs Rtn12.2%7.5%2.1%11.6%26.2%22.2%11.9%
12M Excs Rtn2.8%-1.9%-10.6%-10.7%-22.9%-12.9%-10.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-42.5%6.0%-54.5%-29.7%-72.9%9.8%-36.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Community Banking281245133127131
Total281245133127131


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,154,177
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-6.5%
Average Daily Volume256,694
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.50
Basic Shares Quantity52,686,391
Short % of Basic Shares2.2%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/22/2025-0.5%2.1%0.4%
7/23/2025-4.4%-6.8%-5.1%
4/23/20250.9%2.5%7.3%
1/22/2025-2.4%0.0%-1.6%
10/16/20245.7%3.1%15.9%
7/17/2024-2.2%-0.1%-5.4%
4/17/20242.2%7.9%10.5%
1/24/2024-7.3%-11.4%-12.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111515
# Negative1288
Median Positive3.5%7.0%8.7%
Median Negative-2.9%-5.1%-4.8%
Max Positive9.5%28.3%20.8%
Max Negative-7.3%-11.4%-12.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025509202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024306202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023307202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022309202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022808202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021310202210-K 12/31/2021