Tearsheet

Midland States Bancorp (MSBI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $18.78 | Market Cap: $410.6 Mil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks

Midland States Bancorp (MSBI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $18.78
Market Cap: $410.6 Mil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Regional Banks

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -204%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -88%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -11%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 59%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -37%
2 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 7.3%, FCF Yield is 48%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, and Wealth Management Technology.
  
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -204%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 59%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56%
2 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 7.3%, FCF Yield is 48%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, and Wealth Management Technology.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -88%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -11%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -37%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MSBI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Midland States Bancorp (MSBI) experienced a dynamic period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, with several key developments influencing its stock. 1. Q3 2025 Earnings Report and Financial Performance: Midland States Bancorp released its third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 30, 2025. The company reported a net income of $5.3 million, or $0.24 per diluted share, which was a notable decline from the previous quarter and the same period in the prior year, and missed analyst estimates. Despite the earnings shortfall, the net interest margin improved to 3.79% from 3.56% in Q2 2025, primarily due to a decline in funding costs. The company also reported a decrease in nonperforming assets to 1.02% of total assets as of September 30, 2025, down from 2.10% at year-end 2024, indicating progress in reducing problem loans. 2. Sale of Equipment Finance Portfolio: On November 28, 2025, Midland States Bank completed the sale of substantially all of its equipment finance portfolio to an affiliate of North Mill Equipment Finance LLC for $502 million in cash. This strategic move aligns with the company's focus on core community banking and wealth management and is expected to be accretive to capital. The company plans to use the majority of the proceeds to pay down approximately $350 million of high-cost wholesale funding, which should lower interest expense and improve the funding mix. The transaction is expected to result in a pre-tax loss of approximately $20 million in the fourth quarter of 2025. 3.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MSBI Return-34%45%13%9%-7%-23%-15%
Peers Return-2%12%-18%18%1%19%28%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MSBI Win Rate33%58%42%50%42%40% 
Peers Win Rate22%25%28%35%27%51% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MSBI Max Drawdown-54%0%-2%-29%-23%-37% 
Peers Max Drawdown-19%-2%-23%-16%-10%-7% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMSBIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-38.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven63.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-56.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven129.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven166 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-43.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven78.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days

Compare to NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU


In The Past

Midland States Bancorp's stock fell -38.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/8/2022. A -38.9% loss requires a 63.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Midland States Bancorp (MSBI)

Better Bets than Midland States Bancorp (MSBI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MSBI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Midland States Bancorp

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MSBINEWTATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameMidland .NewtekOneAmes Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
Mkt Price18.7911.3121.9516.4715.0917.4416.95
Mkt Cap0.40.30.2--84.20.4
Rev LTM3212696090268,967180
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM181-52020-843,65712
FCF 3Y Avg174-22916-52,31716
CFO LTM188-51920-443,94112
CFO 3Y Avg181-22818-52,50618

Growth & Margins

MSBINEWTATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameMidland .NewtekOneAmes Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
Rev Chg LTM-16.9%21.8%13.1%-2.1%23.7%13.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg3.2%31.6%-2.3%-0.0%70.1%3.2%
Rev Chg Q-10.9%20.7%19.4%-16.5%20.4%19.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-2.9%4.7%4.6%-4.0%5.0%4.6%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM58.7%-193.4%33.7%-4.2%17.4%44.0%25.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg50.5%-91.8%31.7%-19.2%37.8%31.7%
FCF/Rev LTM56.4%-193.4%33.0%-8.3%15.3%40.8%24.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg48.5%-91.9%27.6%-17.8%34.9%27.6%

Valuation

MSBINEWTATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameMidland .NewtekOneAmes Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
Mkt Cap0.40.30.2--84.20.4
P/S1.21.12.7--7.41.9
P/EBIT-------
P/E-2.54.911.6--28.88.3
P/CFO2.0-0.67.9--16.84.9
Total Yield-33.3%20.2%13.5%--3.5%8.5%
Dividend Yield7.3%0.0%4.9%--0.0%2.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg40.2%-76.1%9.6%--4.3%6.9%
D/E1.52.60.2--0.00.8
Net D/E-2.01.8-4.5---0.4-1.2

Returns

MSBINEWTATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameMidland .NewtekOneAmes Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
1M Rtn20.3%9.4%5.5%7.2%7.0%8.1%7.6%
3M Rtn4.7%-6.0%13.0%9.1%13.4%17.0%11.1%
6M Rtn17.9%10.7%29.3%--46.1%23.6%
12M Rtn-24.1%-14.3%32.6%--49.4%9.1%
3Y Rtn-17.9%-24.8%8.7%--291.0%-4.6%
1M Excs Rtn20.3%9.4%5.5%7.2%7.1%8.2%7.7%
3M Excs Rtn-2.7%-12.1%4.9%1.3%9.3%11.9%3.1%
6M Excs Rtn3.2%-4.0%14.6%--31.3%8.9%
12M Excs Rtn-38.4%-30.2%21.1%--25.6%-4.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-88.1%-94.1%-60.5%--240.5%-74.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Banking347310261250255
Wealth Management2626272322
Corporate-9    
Other -10-10-12-12
Total364326278260265


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Banking6298812560
Wealth Management36765
Corporate-4    
Other -4-7-9-9
Total6199812356


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Banking7,7687,8427,4606,9836,087
Wealth Management3129292926
Corporate-10    
Other -16-45-144-26
Total7,7907,8567,4446,8696,087


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity523,202
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120255.9%
Average Daily Volume195,276
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.68
Basic Shares Quantity21,863,911
Short % of Basic Shares2.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025908202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025808202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024701202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023223202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021