Tearsheet

Origin Materials (ORGN)


Market Price (4/23/2026): $2.36 | Market Cap: $11.8 Mil
Sector: Materials | Industry: Commodity Chemicals

Origin Materials (ORGN)


Market Price (4/23/2026): $2.36
Market Cap: $11.8 Mil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Commodity Chemicals

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -220%

Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -51%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, Advanced Materials, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Sustainable Packaging Materials, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -129%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -170%

Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14%

Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -63 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -335%

Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -40%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -67%

Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47%

Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -173%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -333%

Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2139%

High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 110%

Key risks
ORGN key risks include [1] significant delays in scaling its technology to achieve commercial-scale production and revenue, Show more.

0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -220%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -51%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, Advanced Materials, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Sustainable Packaging Materials, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -129%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -170%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14%
5 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -63 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -335%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -40%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -67%
7 Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47%
8 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -173%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -333%
9 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2139%
10 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 110%
11 Key risks
ORGN key risks include [1] significant delays in scaling its technology to achieve commercial-scale production and revenue, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Origin Materials (ORGN) stock has lost about 65% since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Significant Deterioration in Q4 2025 Financial Performance.

Origin Materials reported a GAAP EPS of -$38.54 for the fourth quarter of 2025, significantly missing analyst expectations of -$2.1. Revenue for the quarter was $3.02 million, a 67.2% year-over-year decline, falling short of expectations. The company also posted a substantial net loss of $194.1 million in Q4 2025, a considerable increase from the $13.5 million loss in the prior year, contributing to a full-year 2025 net loss of $249.7 million.

2. Delayed Path to Profitability.

The company announced an updated guidance, stating it no longer expects to achieve adjusted EBITDA breakeven before 2028, pushing back its previous projection of 2027. This delay signals a slower-than-anticipated commercialization process and customer adoption for its core PET cap products, leading to a notable drop in the stock price, including a 19-20% fall in pre-market trading following the announcement.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -63.3% change in ORGN stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -50.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)123120254222026Change
Stock Price ($)6.352.33-63.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2519-24.7%
P/S Multiple1.30.6-50.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)55-0.8%
Cumulative Contribution-63.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/31/2025 to 4/22/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ORGN-63.3% 
Market (SPY)-5.4%30.9%
Sector (XLB)14.3%20.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The -85.0% change in ORGN stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -76.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)93020254222026Change
Stock Price ($)15.562.33-85.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2919-34.0%
P/S Multiple2.70.6-76.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)55-1.9%
Cumulative Contribution-85.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/30/2025 to 4/22/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ORGN-85.0% 
Market (SPY)-2.9%31.6%
Sector (XLB)16.3%22.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The -88.3% change in ORGN stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -79.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)33120254222026Change
Stock Price ($)19.912.33-88.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)3119-39.5%
P/S Multiple3.10.6-79.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)55-4.0%
Cumulative Contribution-88.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2025 to 4/22/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ORGN-88.3% 
Market (SPY)16.3%24.7%
Sector (XLB)22.4%27.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The -98.2% change in ORGN stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -6.2% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).
(LTM values as of)33120234222026Change
Stock Price ($)128.102.33-98.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)190.0%
P/S Multiple0.60.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)55-6.2%
Cumulative Contribution0.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2023 to 4/22/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ORGN-98.2% 
Market (SPY)63.3%21.1%
Sector (XLB)35.7%24.6%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
ORGN Return-39%-29%-82%53%-83%-64%-99%
Peers Return6%-39%-11%19%-31%17%-44%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%3%88%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ORGN Win Rate25%42%42%42%33%0% 
Peers Win Rate48%42%48%42%37%55% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ORGN Max Drawdown-51%-34%-85%-43%-85%-69% 
Peers Max Drawdown-12%-46%-42%-52%-52%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-7% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GEVO, PCT, LNZA, LOOP, EMN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/22/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventORGNS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-95.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1950.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to GEVO, PCT, LNZA, LOOP, EMN

In The Past

Origin Materials's stock fell -95.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/16/2021. A -95.1% loss requires a 1950.7% gain to breakeven.

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About Origin Materials (ORGN)

Origin Materials, Inc. operates as a carbon negative materials company. Its proprietary platform technology converts biomass or plant-based carbon into chloromethylfurfural and hydrothermal carbon, as well as other minor products. The company is headquartered in West Sacramento, California.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Origin Materials:

  • Like a Beyond Meat for industrial materials, creating plant-based alternatives to traditional products.
  • The Dow Chemical of plant-based, carbon-negative materials, focusing on sustainable alternatives to petrochemicals.
  • An ExxonMobil, but refining plants into carbon-negative industrial materials instead of oil into fuel and plastics.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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  • Chloromethylfurfural (CMF): A chemical intermediate produced from plant-based carbon using Origin Materials' proprietary platform technology.
  • Hydrothermal Carbon (HTC): A solid carbon material derived from biomass through Origin Materials' proprietary process.
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AI Analysis | Feedback

Origin Materials (ORGN) primarily sells its proprietary carbon-negative materials to other companies, operating on a Business-to-Business (B2B) model. These customers are typically large corporations across various industries that are seeking to incorporate sustainable, plant-based materials into their products or manufacturing processes.

Major customer companies and strategic partners with off-take agreements or significant collaborations include:

  • Nestlé S.A. (OTCMKTS: NSRGY)
  • PepsiCo, Inc. (NASDAQ: PEP)
  • Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F)
  • Michelin (EPA: ML)
  • Danone (OTCMKTS: DANOY)
  • Mitsubishi Gas Chemical Company, Inc. (TYO: 4188)

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

John Bissell Co-Founder & CEO

John Bissell co-founded Origin Materials in November 2008 and has served as its Chief Executive Officer and a member of its board of directors since inception. He was trained as a chemical engineer at UC Davis and has extensive experience in R&D, engineering, and business development in the chemical industry. Bissell raised over half a billion USD in capital and took Origin Materials public in 2021. He was recognized by the US EPA, Forbes, and the University of California for his professional and technical contributions. He transitioned to a single CEO leadership structure effective December 31, 2024, previously serving as co-CEO.

Matthew T. Plavan Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer

Matthew T. Plavan has served as Origin Materials' Chief Financial Officer since November 2023, and additionally as Chief Operating Officer since December 2024. He brings 30 years of successful leadership and board governance experience in public and privately held companies within the ag-tech, medical device, cell therapy, and healthcare industries. Most recently, from May 2022 to October 2023, Plavan served as Chief Executive Officer of IngredientWerks, Inc., where he led the company's founding spin-out and initial seed financing. Prior to IngredientWerks, he was Chief Financial Officer of Arcadia Biosciences, Inc. from September 2016, and then President and Chief Executive Officer from September 2018 to December 2021. As a CFO, Plavan also led the finances of two high-tech private equity-backed companies, StrionAir Inc. and Reason, Inc., positioning each for successful exits. He previously held positions at Cesca Therapeutics, McKesson, and Ernst & Young.

Pam Haley VP, Accounting

Pam Haley is the VP, Accounting at Origin Materials. She previously served as interim Chief Financial Officer from September 1, 2023, to October 30, 2023. Prior to this, Haley held various financial leadership roles at Arcadia Biosciences Inc., including Chief Financial Officer from September 2019 to January 2023, Controller from November 2014 to August 2019, Director of Accounting from 2010 to 2014, and Accounting Manager from 2005 to 2010. She holds a B.S. in Accounting from the University of Arizona.

Ben Freireich SVP, R&D

Ben Freireich is the SVP, R&D at Origin Materials. He has more than a decade of experience in the chemical and process industries and is a leading industry expert in product and process research and development for solid materials. Before joining Origin Materials, Dr. Freireich served as the Technical Director of Particulate Solid Research, Inc. (PSRI), where he led applied process research efforts for a consortium of over thirty multinational corporations. He is a specialist in particle technology, with expertise in various areas of solids engineering, and has authored sections of Perry's Chemical Engineering Handbook. He obtained his PhD in Mechanical Engineering from Purdue University.

Joshua C. Lee Chief Compliance Officer, General Counsel and Secretary

Joshua C. Lee serves as the Chief Compliance Officer, General Counsel, and Secretary for Origin Materials.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key risks to Origin Materials (ORGN):

  1. Delays and Hurdles in Commercial Scale-Up and Product Commercialization: Origin Materials faces significant challenges in bringing its proprietary technology to commercial scale and successfully commercializing its products. The company has experienced original equipment manufacturer (OEM) manufacturing delays, including subcomponent and procurement issues, which have postponed factory acceptance testing. Furthermore, there are inherent difficulties in the design, production, and marketing of its innovative products, such as PET closures, which could significantly delay or prevent their development and widespread commercialization. Extended customer product qualification cycles, now anticipated to take one to two years, have deferred the expected start of commercial-scale PET cap revenue generation. Past issues include construction delays and cost overruns for the Origin 2 plant, with the completion timeline pushed from 2025 to a phased approach ending in 2028. The company also agreed to a $9 million settlement to resolve claims of misleading investors regarding the status and commercial viability of its Origin 2 plant. These delays and hurdles directly impact revenue generation and operational timelines, leading to revised financial guidance.
  2. Financial Instability and Liquidity Concerns: Origin Materials is experiencing significant financial instability, marked by declining revenue and substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern without additional financing. The company has revised its revenue guidance downward for 2026 and 2027. Its stock has been trading below $1 for an extended period, which poses a risk of NASDAQ delisting. The company has reported a wider net loss, a large non-cash impairment, and is burning cash, despite having approximately $69 million in cash and marketable securities. Analysts have also noted poor profitability, including negative net income and cash flow from operations, and a low Altman-Z score, indicating financial unhealthiness and a potential risk of bankruptcy. The need for substantial outside financing is a critical factor for its future operations.
  3. Supply Chain Disruptions and Customer Concentration: The company is vulnerable to uncertainties in global supply chains and the impact of tariffs and protectionist trade policies, particularly regarding European imports. Additionally, Origin Materials exhibits a high degree of customer concentration, with nearly all of its 2025 revenue coming from just two customers. The loss of either of these key customers would have a material adverse effect on the company's financial performance.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The emergence of alternative, potentially more efficient or cost-effective, biomass conversion technologies for producing platform chemicals that compete directly with Origin Materials' key outputs. For example, companies such as Avantium are developing and scaling technologies to produce furandicarboxylic acid (FDCA) directly from plant-based sugars. FDCA is a crucial monomer for polyethylene furanoate (PEF), a high-performance bioplastic that Origin Materials aims to enable through its chloromethylfurfural (CMF) platform. If these alternative pathways prove to be more economically viable or scalable for key applications like PEF, they could significantly undermine the market demand and value proposition for Origin Materials' CMF.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Origin Materials (ORGN) targets substantial addressable markets for its main products and services globally. The company's proprietary platform technology, which converts biomass into chloromethylfurfural (CMF) and hydrothermal carbon (HTC), aims to address a global market of approximately $1 trillion across a wide range of end products. These products include clothing, textiles, plastics, packaging, car parts, tires, carpeting, toys, and fuels. More specifically, for its key intermediate products: * **Chloromethylfurfural (CMF)**: While a precise global market size specifically for CMF is not explicitly defined beyond being "several million dollars", Origin Materials identifies significant downstream opportunities. The company's innovations in all-PET caps and closures, enabled by CMF, target a global market of approximately $65 billion. * **Hydrothermal Carbon (HTC)**: The global market for Hydrothermal Carbonization (HTC) was valued at approximately $1.2 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach around $4.8 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.4% during the forecast period. HTC has applications in areas such as solid fuels and sustainable carbon black for automotive tires.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Origin Materials (ORGN) over the next 2-3 years:

  1. Commercialization and Market Penetration of PET Bottle Caps: Origin Materials has identified PET bottle caps as a significant revenue opportunity, with the company announcing the launch of its PET bottle caps on store shelves and targeting a substantial portion of the $7 billion non-carbonated water caps market, with plans to expand into the broader $65 billion closures packaging market. The company's 1881 cap for non-carbonated water is now available, and it is working on qualifications for carbonated soft drink applications.
  2. Scaling Up Production Capacity of CapFormer Lines: To meet the anticipated demand for its PET caps, Origin Materials is focused on expanding its CapFormer production lines. The company has commenced commercial production of PET caps at its Reed City, Michigan facility and is actively expanding its CapFormer production lines to scale revenues. Delays in CapFormer production have previously impacted revenue guidance, underscoring the importance of successful ramp-up.
  3. Expansion through Strategic Partnerships and Customer Acquisitions for PET Caps: Origin Materials is expanding its market reach and distribution through strategic alliances. A key partnership includes an agreement with Berlin Packaging to purchase PET 1881 caps for sale and distribution. Additionally, the company announced a partnership with Matrix Bottling Group to bring recyclable PET bottle caps to major beverage brands. These collaborations are crucial for converting customer interest and MOUs into tangible revenue.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Issuance

  • Stockholders approved the issuance of more than 20% of outstanding shares upon conversion of senior secured convertible notes issued to an institutional purchaser, as of February 17, 2026.
  • Officers have sold common stock to cover tax obligations from restricted stock units vesting; for example, the General Counsel sold 29,000 shares for approximately $6,609 and 35,000 shares for approximately $6,913 in December 2025, and the CFO sold 12,000 shares for approximately $2,393 in January 2026.
  • The 2021 Equity Incentive Plan includes an "evergreen" feature that annually increases the number of shares reserved for issuance by 5% of the fully-diluted common stock until January 1, 2031.

Inbound Investments

  • Origin Materials secured new convertible debt and equipment-backed financing to support its future growth as of November 2025.
  • The company anticipates accessing additional tranches of a previously announced $100 million debt facility to meet near-term working capital requirements.

Capital Expenditures

  • Capital expenditures in Q3 2025 were approximately $5 million.
  • The company's burn rate for 2026 is projected to include similar levels of capital expenditures.
  • Origin Materials is focusing its 2026 CapFormer line build-out to six already procured lines, which are scheduled for installation by year-end.

Latest Trefis Analyses

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0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to ORGN.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
AXTA_3272026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03272026AXTAAxalta Coating SystemsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-0.6%
IFF_3272026_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V203272026IFFInternational Flavors & FragrancesInsiderInsider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider Buying
Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
2.2%2.2%-0.1%
IP_3132026_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V203132026IPInternational PaperInsiderInsider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider Buying
Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
-4.2%-4.2%-9.4%
ARIS_3062026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03062026ARISAris MiningDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.9%-3.9%-16.7%
EMN_3062026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03062026EMNEastman ChemicalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.8%9.8%-6.0%

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ORGNGEVOPCTLNZALOOPEMNMedian
NameOrigin M.Gevo PureCycl.LanzaTec.Loop Ind.Eastman . 
Mkt Price2.331.857.1824.871.2772.534.75
Mkt Cap0.00.41.30.10.18.30.2
Rev LTM19161856118,75237
Op Inc LTM-63-19-166-79-0958-41
FCF LTM-63-44-184-66-1424-53
FCF 3Y Avg-98-89-211-89-15553-89
CFO LTM-33-13-143-65-1970-23
CFO 3Y Avg-48-42-127-84-121,210-45

Growth & Margins

ORGNGEVOPCTLNZALOOPEMNMedian
NameOrigin M.Gevo PureCycl.LanzaTec.Loop Ind.Eastman . 
Rev Chg LTM-39.5%849.3%-12.6%8,746.0%-6.7%12.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-737.2%-19.8%2,908.7%-5.9%378.5%
Rev Chg Q-67.2%695.6%-132.7%65.4%-12.1%65.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-24.7%32.8%47.6%40.0%0.3%-3.0%16.5%
Op Inc Chg LTM8.8%78.0%-14.4%27.3%98.1%-30.6%18.1%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg-19.6%22.5%-27.4%-5.3%53.6%-5.9%-5.6%
Op Mgn LTM-335.4%-11.7%-1,991.2%-141.7%-3.2%10.9%-76.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-249.5%-331.8%--177.1%-10,811.9%12.4%-249.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-81.3%11.6%790.3%124.0%10.2%-2.2%10.9%
CFO/Rev LTM-173.3%-8.3%-1,708.4%-116.1%-7.7%11.1%-62.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-181.8%-220.0%--150.4%-10,000.7%13.2%-181.8%
FCF/Rev LTM-332.9%-27.1%-2,197.3%-118.4%-9.5%4.8%-72.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-371.9%-445.9%--159.2%-11,892.8%6.0%-371.9%

Valuation

ORGNGEVOPCTLNZALOOPEMNMedian
NameOrigin M.Gevo PureCycl.LanzaTec.Loop Ind.Eastman . 
Mkt Cap0.00.41.30.10.18.30.2
P/S0.62.7154.91.05.50.91.9
P/Op Inc-0.2-23.1-7.8-0.7-173.08.6-4.3
P/EBIT-0.0-29.0-11.0-0.7-34.410.5-5.9
P/E-0.0-12.9-7.1-1.2-22.517.5-4.1
P/CFO-0.4-32.6-9.1-0.9-71.28.5-5.0
Total Yield-2,134.8%-7.7%-14.1%-84.8%-4.4%8.0%-10.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%2.3%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-283.4%-25.2%-20.4%-7,213.1%-15.9%5.8%-22.8%
D/E2.40.40.30.50.00.60.4
Net D/E-2.20.20.20.2-0.00.50.2

Returns

ORGNGEVOPCTLNZALOOPEMNMedian
NameOrigin M.Gevo PureCycl.LanzaTec.Loop Ind.Eastman . 
1M Rtn-28.1%-21.3%21.9%12.1%-8.6%6.6%-1.0%
3M Rtn-61.7%-8.0%-36.9%80.9%11.4%7.5%-0.2%
6M Rtn-87.8%-22.6%-44.5%-0.7%-20.1%21.5%-21.4%
12M Rtn-88.9%55.5%12.4%55.2%15.5%-4.0%13.9%
3Y Rtn-98.1%59.5%35.5%-92.7%-55.9%0.5%-27.7%
1M Excs Rtn-36.5%-29.7%13.4%3.6%-17.1%-1.8%-9.5%
3M Excs Rtn-65.5%-11.8%-40.7%77.1%7.6%3.7%-4.1%
6M Excs Rtn-95.2%-35.1%-55.2%-16.4%-26.6%14.9%-30.9%
12M Excs Rtn-126.3%26.8%-9.4%17.1%-19.7%-39.5%-14.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-170.0%-12.5%-54.2%-164.6%-128.6%-73.9%-101.2%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil2025202420232022
Products240  
Services50  
Total290  


Assets by Segment
$ Mil2025202420232022
Single segment  51047
Total  51047


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$2.33 
Market Cap ($ Bil)0.0 
First Trading Date09/04/2020 
Distance from 52W High-91.5% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$3.49$11.94
DMA Trenddowndown
Distance from DMA-33.2%-80.5%
 3M1YR
Volatility111.8%109.5%
Downside Capture2.422.16
Upside Capture78.6253.43
Correlation (SPY)21.4%22.9%
ORGN Betas & Captures as of 3/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.311.642.002.371.371.50
Up Beta5.523.374.023.941.121.25
Down Beta-0.540.97-0.321.150.971.05
Up Capture-12%78%205%65%67%67%
Bmk +ve Days7162765139424
Stock +ve Days7152453114326
Down Capture206%257%290%251%168%113%
Bmk -ve Days12233358110323
Stock -ve Days14263871135401

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ORGN
ORGN-88.1%109.7%-1.38-
Sector ETF (XLB)32.5%16.6%1.5225.5%
Equity (SPY)26.7%12.5%1.7724.8%
Gold (GLD)38.9%27.4%1.195.3%
Commodities (DBC)23.5%16.2%1.328.6%
Real Estate (VNQ)15.6%13.6%0.8213.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-12.8%42.6%-0.2122.9%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ORGN
ORGN-62.3%90.8%-0.61-
Sector ETF (XLB)6.9%18.9%0.2627.7%
Equity (SPY)10.5%17.1%0.4826.6%
Gold (GLD)21.5%17.8%0.997.1%
Commodities (DBC)10.7%18.8%0.4711.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)3.6%18.8%0.0923.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)3.8%56.4%0.2917.2%

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Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ORGN
ORGN-38.6%86.7%-0.56-
Sector ETF (XLB)10.7%20.6%0.4626.2%
Equity (SPY)13.8%17.9%0.6625.6%
Gold (GLD)13.9%15.9%0.736.7%
Commodities (DBC)8.1%17.6%0.3811.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.4%20.7%0.2322.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)68.1%66.9%1.0716.4%

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Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date3312026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity0.7 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 3152026-91.3%
Average Daily Volume0.2 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.6 days
Basic Shares Quantity5.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares14.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
3/27/2026-34.2%-37.7% 
11/13/2025-4.2%-15.7%-28.3%
8/14/2025-33.2%-32.1%-37.0%
3/13/2025-4.2%-8.8%-34.6%
11/14/2024-12.8%-4.8%-10.4%
8/14/202422.2%68.9%72.2%
5/14/2024-13.1%-14.7%-8.7%
2/29/2024-8.4%-7.0%-14.2%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive656
# Negative111210
Median Positive4.5%7.3%13.1%
Median Negative-12.8%-11.8%-23.1%
Max Positive22.2%68.9%72.2%
Max Negative-66.4%-70.7%-65.4%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
12/31/202503/30/202610-K
09/30/202511/13/202510-Q
06/30/202508/14/202510-Q
03/31/202505/15/202510-Q
12/31/202403/13/202510-K
09/30/202411/14/202410-Q
06/30/202408/14/202410-Q
03/31/202405/14/202410-Q
12/31/202303/05/202410-K
09/30/202311/09/202310-Q
06/30/202308/09/202310-Q
03/31/202305/10/202310-Q
12/31/202202/23/202310-K
09/30/202211/03/202210-Q
06/30/202208/03/202210-Q
03/31/202205/09/202210-Q

Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]

Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/27/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2028 Adjusted EBITDA run-rate breakeven     Lowered
2026 Revenue20.00 Mil25.00 Mil30.00 Mil   
2027 Revenue100.00 Mil150.00 Mil200.00 Mil   

Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/13/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Revenue20.00 Mil25.00 Mil30.00 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: 25.00 Mil for 2026
2027 Revenue100.00 Mil150.00 Mil200.00 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: 150.00 Mil for 2027