Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Origin Materials:

• Dow Chemical for the sustainable materials industry.
• Like BASF, but specializing in carbon-negative materials made from biomass.
• A bio-based LyondellBasell, creating plastics and chemicals from wood waste.

• Paraxylene (PTX): A plant-based chemical building block primarily used to produce PET plastic for packaging, textiles, and other applications.
• Furfural (FTX): A versatile biomass-derived chemical intermediate used in resins, solvents, and as a precursor for other specialty chemicals.
• Bio-based Carbon Black: A sustainable alternative to traditional petroleum-derived carbon black, used as a reinforcing filler in tires and plastics, and as a pigment.

Major Customers of Origin Materials (ORGN)

Origin Materials primarily sells its carbon-negative materials and technology to other companies (B2B) across various industries, including packaging, automotive, and textiles. Its major customers and strategic partners, based on public announcements and offtake agreements, include:

• Nestlé S.A. (NSRGY)
• Danone S.A. (DANOY)
• PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP)
• Ford Motor Company (F)
• LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE (LVMHF)
• Mitsui & Co., Ltd. (MITSF)

• Resolute Forest Products

John Bissell Co-Founder & CEO

John Bissell co-founded Origin Materials in November 2008 and has served as its Chief Executive Officer and a member of its board of directors since inception. He was trained as a chemical engineer at UC Davis and has extensive experience in R&D, engineering, and business development in the chemical industry. Mr. Bissell has been recognized by the US EPA, Forbes, and the University of California for his professional and technical contributions. He raised over half a billion USD in capital and took Origin Materials public in 2021.

Matt Plavan CFO and COO

Matt Plavan has served as Origin Materials' Chief Financial Officer since November 2023, and will also serve as Chief Operating Officer effective December 31, 2024. He brings 30 years of successful leadership and board governance experience in public and privately held companies within the ag-tech, medical device, cell therapy, and healthcare industries. Mr. Plavan is recognized for his ability to identify and capitalize on new market opportunities and execute enterprise-wide growth initiatives. He most recently served as CEO at IngredientWerks, a plant-based protein ingredient producer. Previously, he was CFO at Arcadia Biosciences, where he secured multiple rounds of equity financing to mature the business.

Ryan Smith Co-Founder & Chief Product Officer

Ryan Smith co-founded Origin Materials in November 2008 and serves as the Chief Product Officer.

Pam Haley Senior VP of Accounting and Finance

Pam Haley is the Senior VP of Accounting and Finance at Origin Materials. She previously served as the interim CFO from September to October 2023.

Peiying Lee Corporate Secretary

Peiying Lee joined Origin Operating as Corporate Counsel in February 2018, served as its General Counsel from December 2020 to June 2021, and has served as Corporate Secretary since June 2021. Prior to joining Origin Operating, Mr. Lee was an attorney at Miller Barondess, LLP and Irell & Manella LLP.

The key risks to Origin Materials (ORGN) are primarily related to its operational execution, financial stability, and market performance.

1. Delays and Challenges in Achieving Commercial Scale Production and Revenue Generation: Origin Materials is an early-stage company whose business plan hinges on scaling up its innovative technology to replace petroleum-based materials with decarbonized alternatives. The company has faced, and continues to anticipate, delays in achieving meaningful revenue and transitioning from pilot to large-scale production, particularly for novel products like PET closures. These challenges encompass design, production, marketing, equipment manufacturing partnerships, and customer qualification processes, which could significantly impact revenue and market share.
2. Financial Viability, History of Losses, and Need for Substantial Additional Financing: Origin Materials has a history of net losses and negative cash flows from operating activities since its inception and expects to continue incurring these for the foreseeable future. The company anticipates needing substantial additional project financing and government incentives to fund its operations and growth. There is a risk that this financing may not be available on favorable terms, or at all, potentially leading to further dilution for shareholders through debt or equity raises. Its operating cash flow is currently negative, indicating that debt is not well covered.
3. Stock Price Volatility and Potential for Delisting: The market price and trading volume of Origin Materials' common stock have been highly volatile and have experienced significant declines. The company has received notices of non-compliance from Nasdaq due to its minimum bid price falling below the required threshold, raising the risk of delisting if it cannot regain compliance.

Avantium, a company focused on plant-based chemistry, is a clear emerging threat. Avantium is currently building a commercial plant for FDCA (furan dicarboxylic acid), a key monomer for PEF (polyethylene furanoate), a next-generation bio-based plastic. PEF directly competes with PET and other materials Origin Materials aims to replace or produce sustainably, particularly in packaging applications. Avantium's advancing commercialization of PEF could capture significant market share in sustainable packaging and materials that Origin Materials also targets.

Loop Industries, a chemical recycling technology company, represents another clear emerging threat. Loop's patented depolymerization technology can transform waste PET plastic into virgin-quality PET. If scaled successfully and widely adopted, this chemical recycling pathway offers a direct alternative sustainable solution for sourcing PET. This could potentially reduce the overall market demand for newly produced virgin bio-based PET that Origin Materials seeks to supply from biomass.

Origin Materials (ORGN) operates in several large addressable markets for its sustainable materials and technologies:

• All-PET Caps and Closures: Origin Materials' innovative all-PET caps and closures address a global market estimated to be greater than $65 billion. A specific segment, the non-carbonated water cap market, is approximately $7 billion.

• Sustainable Materials (via Biomass Conversion Platform): The company's patented biomass conversion platform, which transforms carbon into sustainable materials for a wide range of end products, targets a global addressable market exceeding $1 trillion.

• Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) Market: The global polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market, which Origin Materials contributes to with its 100% plant-based PET, was valued at approximately $48.43 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to $109.63 billion by 2032. The U.S. PET market alone is projected to reach an estimated value of $17.28 billion by 2032.

• Carbon Black Alternatives (Bio-sourced/Specialty): Origin Materials produces hydrothermal carbon (HTC), which can be developed for applications in markets such as carbon black for tires. The global bio-sourced carbon black replacement market is estimated at $412 million in 2024 and is projected to reach $1,998 million by 2033. More broadly, the global carbon black market was valued at $14.9 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach $40.5 billion by 2032. The global specialty carbon black market was valued at $3 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach approximately $6.3 billion by 2034. Within this, the U.S. specialty carbon black market is estimated at $490 million in 2024 and is anticipated to rise to $1.06 billion by 2034, while the Europe carbon black market is valued at $3.08 billion as of 2024 and is anticipated to grow to nearly $5.46 billion by 2034.

• Specialty Pulp & Paper Chemicals Market: While not explicitly stated as a direct product from Origin Materials, their intermediates can be used for new polymers and surfactants, which are components of specialty chemicals. The global specialty pulp and paper chemicals market was valued at $22.89 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $30.66 billion by 2032. Other estimates place the global market at $24.9 billion in 2025, growing to $35.1 billion by 2035.

Origin Materials (ORGN) anticipates several key drivers for its future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, primarily centered around the commercialization and expansion of its innovative PET caps and closures business, alongside strategic advancements in its core biomass conversion technology.

1. Commercialization and Scaling of PET Caps and Closures: The most immediate and significant driver is the ramp-up of its PET caps and closures business. Origin Materials has already seen its first Origin PET bottle caps on store shelves, specifically targeting the $7 billion non-carbonated water market segment. The company plans to expand this into the broader $65 billion closures packaging market. They have secured strategic partnerships, such as with Berlin Packaging, to facilitate sales and distribution. Although there have been some manufacturing delays and downward revisions to revenue guidance for 2026 and 2027, the company expects significant revenue generation from this segment starting in Q1 2025, with healthy growth thereafter.
2. Deployment of CapFormer Production Lines: A crucial element supporting the growth in PET caps and closures is the deployment of additional CapFormer manufacturing lines. Origin Materials aims to have eight or more CapFormer systems in production by the end of 2025. The successful factory acceptance test of their initial CMER system, producing millions of functional PET caps, indicates their capability to scale production to meet strong customer demand. The pace of installing these lines will directly influence the company's manufacturing capacity and, consequently, its revenue growth.
3. Strategic Partnerships and European Manufacturing Expansion: To mitigate tariff exposure and enhance global reach, Origin Materials has formed strategic partnerships, including one with Royal Hordijk, a Dutch producer, to expand its European manufacturing footprint. These collaborations are vital for enhancing manufacturing capacity and distribution capabilities, addressing market demand, and accelerating value capture in high-value segments of the closures market.
4. Future Development of Biomass Conversion Technology (CMF and HTC): Beyond immediate cap and closure sales, Origin Materials' long-term revenue potential lies in its proprietary biomass conversion technology, which produces Chloromethyl furfural (CMF) and Hydrothermal Carbon (HTC). While the full commercialization of these base chemicals may take more time, CMF can be used to produce functionally superior products like polyethylene furanoate (PEF) with potentially higher margins. Analysts project licensing income from this technology, with an estimated $10 million in 2027 and increasing to $20 million in 2028. This represents a significant long-term growth driver, although current resources are focused on the caps and closures business.

Share Issuance

• Origin Materials' shares outstanding have shown a consistent increase over the last five years, rising from approximately 0.13 billion in 2021 to 0.147 billion in October 2025, reflecting yearly increases in 2022 (1.16%), 2023 (1.73%), 2024 (2.36%), and 2025 (2.61%).
• The number of shares outstanding increased by 2.96% in one year to 146.90 million shares.
• In 2021, the company reported net proceeds of $863 million from a transaction, likely related to its SPAC merger, indicating a significant share issuance event.

Inbound Investments

• Apollo Funds invested $30 million in Origin Materials around July 2021.

Capital Expenditures

• Origin Materials reported capital expenditures of $22.09 million for the last 12 months as of June 2025.
• Significant capital was expended on the development of Origin 1 in 2023, which commenced commercial-scale production in October 2023.
• The company's primary focus for capital expenditures is scaling its PET bottle cap production through its CapFormer technology, with the first CapFormer line commencing production in February 2025, and additional lines (2-4) expected for factory testing in Q2-Q3 2025 and (5-8) in Q4 2025-Q1 2026.