Optex Systems (OPXS)
Market Price (5/12/2026): $10.53 | Market Cap: $72.6 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
Optex Systems (OPXS)
Market Price (5/12/2026): $10.53Market Cap: $72.6 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.3% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Defense Technology. Themes include Advanced Optics & Sensing, Autonomous Defense Systems, and Surveillance & Reconnaissance Technology. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -10% | Key risksOPXS key risks include [1] an extreme reliance on defense sector spending, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.3% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Defense Technology. Themes include Advanced Optics & Sensing, Autonomous Defense Systems, and Surveillance & Reconnaissance Technology. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -10% |
| Key risksOPXS key risks include [1] an extreme reliance on defense sector spending, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Optex Systems (OPXS) stock has lost about 30% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Weak Fiscal Q1 2026 Financial Performance: Optex Systems reported a significant decline in profitability for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 (ended December 28, 2025), leading to an 11.32% drop in the stock price after the announcement. While revenue increased by 11.6% year-over-year to $9.1 million, gross margin fell to 22.9% and operating income decreased sharply to $0.1 million from $0.9 million in the prior year's first quarter. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) also declined significantly to $0.035, compared to $0.12 in fiscal Q1 2025.
2. Margin Compression from Rising Costs and Legacy Contracts: The company experienced compressed margins due to increasing raw material costs and unfavorable legacy contracts. Specifically, the price of gold surged over 250% in three years, leading to margin erosion on a five-year IDIQ contract for the Abrams day window program. Higher General & Administrative (G&A) expenses, partly due to leadership transition costs, further contributed to the decline in profitability.
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1. Weak Fiscal Q1 2026 Financial Performance: Optex Systems reported a significant decline in profitability for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 (ended December 28, 2025), leading to an 11.32% drop in the stock price after the announcement. While revenue increased by 11.6% year-over-year to $9.1 million, gross margin fell to 22.9% and operating income decreased sharply to $0.1 million from $0.9 million in the prior year's first quarter. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) also declined significantly to $0.035, compared to $0.12 in fiscal Q1 2025.
2. Margin Compression from Rising Costs and Legacy Contracts: The company experienced compressed margins due to increasing raw material costs and unfavorable legacy contracts. Specifically, the price of gold surged over 250% in three years, leading to margin erosion on a five-year IDIQ contract for the Abrams day window program. Higher General & Administrative (G&A) expenses, partly due to leadership transition costs, further contributed to the decline in profitability.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -30.2% change in OPXS stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/11/2026 was primarily driven by a -21.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 14.93 | 10.42 | -30.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 41 | 42 | 2.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.5% | 10.7% | -13.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.0 | 15.8 | -21.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 7 | 7 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -30.2% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OPXS | -30.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 33.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 6.1% | 28.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -39.5% change in OPXS stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/11/2026 was primarily driven by a -31.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 17.23 | 10.42 | -39.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 39 | 42 | 7.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.0% | 10.7% | -17.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.1 | 15.8 | -31.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 7 | 7 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -39.5% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OPXS | -39.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 34.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 13.6% | 27.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 63.3% change in OPXS stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/11/2026 was primarily driven by a 51.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.38 | 10.42 | 63.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 35 | 42 | 20.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.9% | 10.7% | -9.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.4 | 15.8 | 51.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 7 | 7 | -1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 63.3% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OPXS | 63.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 31.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 35.2% | 26.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 247.3% change in OPXS stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/11/2026 was primarily driven by a 130.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 3.00 | 10.42 | 247.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 22 | 42 | 91.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.7% | 10.7% | 130.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.0 | 15.8 | -17.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 7 | 7 | -5.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 247.3% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OPXS | 247.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 18.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 83.0% | 16.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OPXS Return | 0% | 0% | 252% | 5% | 107% | -28% | 448% |
| Peers Return | -0% | -12% | 32% | 46% | 72% | 43% | 317% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OPXS Win Rate | 0% | 0% | 58% | 58% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 43% | 42% | 55% | 53% | 58% | 64% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OPXS Max Drawdown | 0% | 0% | 0% | -21% | -21% | -29% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -39% | -14% | -17% | -33% | -10% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: COHR, MTRN, FEIM, PKE, CVU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/11/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OPXS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -10.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 9 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.2% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 61 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1094 days | 140 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -38.9% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.6% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 17 days | 1 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -82.9% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 483.3% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -55.0% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 122.2% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2807 days | 125 days |
In The Past
Optex Systems's stock fell -10.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 11.6% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | OPXS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1094 days | 140 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -38.9% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.6% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 17 days | 1 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -82.9% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 483.3% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -55.0% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 122.2% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2807 days | 125 days |
In The Past
Optex Systems's stock fell -10.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 11.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Optex Systems (OPXS)
Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. manufactures and sells optical sighting systems and assemblies primarily for the U.S. department of defense, foreign military applications, and commercial markets in the United States. It offers periscopes, such as laser and non-laser protected plastic and glass periscopes, electronic M17 day/thermal periscopes, and vision blocks; sighting systems, including back up sights, digital day and night sighting systems, M36 thermal periscope, unity mirrors, optical weapon system support and maintenance, and commander weapon station sights; howitzers comprising M137 telescope, M187 mount, M119 aiming device, XM10 and aiming circles; and applied optics center consisting of laser filter units, laser filter interface, optical assemblies, day windows, binoculars, and specialty thin film coatings, as well as other products, such as muzzle reference systems, binoculars, collimators, optical lenses and elements, and windows. The company also provides various periscope configurations, rifle and surveillance sights, and night vision optical assemblies. Its products are installed on various types of U.S. military land vehicles, such as the Abrams, Bradley, and Stryker families of fighting vehicles, as well as light armored and armored security vehicles. The company offers its products directly to the federal government, prime contractors, and foreign governments. Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Richardson, Texas.
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- FLIR Systems for military vehicle vision and sighting: Optex Systems specializes in providing advanced optical sighting systems and periscopes for military vehicles, similar to how FLIR Systems is known for its specialized thermal and sensor technologies in defense.
- A specialized General Dynamics, but for military vehicle optics: Just as General Dynamics builds major military platforms like tanks and armored vehicles, Optex Systems focuses specifically on manufacturing the critical optical 'eyes' and aiming systems that go into those fighting vehicles.
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- Periscopes: Manufactures various types of periscopes, including laser-protected, day/thermal, and vision blocks, primarily for military land vehicles.
- Sighting Systems: Provides a range of sighting systems such as back up sights, digital day and night systems, and commander weapon station sights.
- Howitzer System Components: Produces optical and mechanical components specifically for howitzer systems, including telescopes, mounts, and aiming devices.
- Applied Optics & Components: Offers laser filter units, optical assemblies, day windows, binoculars, specialty thin film coatings, and various optical lenses and elements.
- Muzzle Reference Systems: Develops systems used for precise weapon calibration and alignment.
- Night Vision Optical Assemblies: Creates optical components specifically designed for night vision applications and devices.
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Major Customers of Optex Systems (OPXS)
Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. primarily sells its optical sighting systems and assemblies directly to the following major customers and customer categories:
- The U.S. Federal Government: Specifically, the U.S. Department of Defense for domestic military applications.
- Foreign Governments: For foreign military applications, supporting various international defense needs.
- Prime Contractors: These are companies that serve as primary contractors to governments, manufacturing and assembling major military systems, such as the Abrams, Bradley, and Stryker families of fighting vehicles. Optex Systems' products are integrated into these larger systems. The provided background information does not list the specific names of these prime contractors.
- Commercial Markets: The company also sells its products to commercial markets within the United States, although its primary focus is on military and defense applications.
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Chad George, President and Chief Executive Officer
Chad George was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc., effective December 20, 2025, succeeding Danny Schoening. Prior to this role, he served as President. Mr. George brings over two decades of defense industry experience, having held senior operations and supply chain leadership positions, including Vice President of Operations and Supply Chain at Leonardo DRS and earlier roles at Raytheon, where he began his professional career as a manufacturing engineer. He also spent four years in the consumer goods sector for Dr. Pepper before returning to defense. He holds a Bachelor's Degree in Industrial Engineering from Oklahoma State University and an MBA from the University of Texas at Dallas.
Karen Hawkins, Chief Financial Officer
Karen Hawkins joined Optex Systems in April 2007 as Controller and was promoted to Chief Financial Officer on November 19, 2014. She became a Certified Public Accountant in 1992 and possesses over 25 years, with some sources stating over 30 years, of experience in Financial Accounting and Management, primarily within the Defense and Transportation Industries. Her expertise includes Financial & Cost Accounting, Government Pricing, Financial Analysis, and Internal Auditing. Her past experience also encompasses Program Management, Materials Management, and Business Development, with previous positions at General Dynamics – Ordinance and Tactical Division, Luminator, and Johnson Controls – Battery Division.
Danny Schoening, Chairman of the Board
Danny Schoening served as the Chief Executive Officer of Optex Systems for 13 years before transitioning to Chairman of the Board, effective December 20, 2025. He was instrumental in establishing the systems and infrastructure for the company's rapid growth. Before joining Optex Systems, Mr. Schoening was the Vice President of Operations for The Finisar Corporation AOC Division for four years, where he led a team of up to 200 employees in producing vertical cavity lasers. Prior to Finisar, he spent 17 years as Director of Operations for multiple divisions of Honeywell International. He holds a Bachelor of Science in Manufacturing Engineering Technology from the University of Nebraska, an MBA from Southern Methodist University, and holds three United States Patents.
Bill Bates, Applied Optics Center General Manager
Bill Bates has thirty-five years of experience in optical component and system manufacturing. He currently serves as the General Manager of the Applied Optics Center in Dallas, Texas, overseeing Thin-film Coating and Optical Assembly Operations. His extensive career includes various positions within Litton Industries, Northrop Grumman Corporation, and L-3 Communications, where he previously served as Vice President and General Manager within the Warrior Systems Division. Mr. Bates earned a Bachelor of Science in Business Administration from DeVry University and an MBA from the University of Texas at Dallas.
Brian Bushnell, Director of Optical Coatings Technology
Brian Bushnell brings a strong background in Opto-Mechanical Engineering as well as Thin-Film Optical Coating development and process improvement to Optex Systems. He previously spent eight years in managerial roles at Raytheon in McKinney, Texas, most recently as the Senior Manager of Mechanical Engineering. Mr. Bushnell holds an MBA from Texas A&M University - Commerce, a Master of Applied Physics from the University of Texas at Dallas, and a Bachelor of Mechanical Engineering from the University of Texas at Arlington.
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```htmlKey Risks to Optex Systems (OPXS)
- High Dependence on Government Contracts and Defense Spending: Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. primarily manufactures and sells optical sighting systems and assemblies to the U.S. Department of Defense and foreign military applications, with defense customers accounting for approximately 90% of its revenue. This makes the company highly susceptible to fluctuations in government budgets, changes in defense spending priorities, political decisions impacting military programs, and delays in the U.S. government's budget and appropriation process.
- Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Component Shortages: The defense industry, and specifically manufacturers of complex optical and electro-optical systems, face significant risks related to global supply chain disruptions. These include shortages of critical components, such as semiconductors and specialized materials, quality issues with outsourced components, and the challenges of managing complex, multi-tiered supplier networks. Such disruptions can lead to production delays, increased costs, and an inability to meet contract delivery timelines.
- Technological Obsolescence and Intense Competition: The military and defense sector is characterized by rapid technological advancements. Optex Systems' products, including periscopes and sighting systems, are vulnerable to becoming obsolete if the company fails to innovate or keep pace with emerging technologies, such as advanced AI-driven surveillance and targeting systems, or if competitors develop superior or more cost-effective solutions. The high cost and complexity of modern thermal imaging and electro-optic targeting tools also pose challenges to market adoption and technological updates.
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```htmlAddressable Markets for Optex Systems (OPXS) Main Products
Optex Systems Holdings, Inc. manufactures optical sighting systems and assemblies for defense and commercial markets. The addressable markets for their main products and services are primarily within the global and U.S. defense sectors, encompassing military optronics, electro-optical and infrared (EO/IR) systems, tactical optics, periscopes, and military binoculars.
- Military Optronics Surveillance and Sighting Systems: This global market, which includes various sighting systems and surveillance equipment, is projected to grow from an estimated $2.96 billion in 2024 to $8.06 billion by 2034, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.5%. Another estimate values this global market at US$17.35 billion in 2023, with a projection to reach US$26.85 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 5.6%. The land-based segment held a significant share of this market in 2023.
- Military Electro-Optical and Infrared (EO/IR) Systems: The global market for military EO/IR systems, covering technologies found in many of Optex Systems' products, was valued at USD 17.04 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 28.98 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 5.9%. Another analysis estimates the global market at USD 8.93 billion in 2025, growing to USD 13.51 billion by 2035 at a CAGR of 4.52%. North America held a 30.12% share of this global market in 2025. Specifically, the U.S. Military Electro-Optical and Infrared Systems Market was valued at USD 2.69 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to USD 3.98 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 4.01%. The land-based platform segment is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 5.21% through 2031.
- Tactical Optics: The global tactical optics market, encompassing various optical systems for improved visibility, accuracy, and aiming, was valued at USD 13.81 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 26.04 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 7.3%. Another estimate places the global market at USD 14.10 billion in 2025, growing to USD 25.00 billion by 2034 at a CAGR of 6.40%. North America held the largest market share at 41.60% in 2025, with the U.S. market specifically valued at USD 5.12 billion in 2023.
- Military Periscopes (Submarine): While Optex Systems primarily provides periscopes for land vehicles, the global submarine periscope market (a related category) was valued at approximately USD 400 million in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 720 million by 2032, with a CAGR of 6.5%. Another source estimated the market at $500 million in 2025, with projections to exceed $750 million by 2033, demonstrating a CAGR of 5%. North America and Europe are noted as dominant regions in this market.
- Military Binoculars: The global military binoculars market size was approximately $752 million in 2023 and is projected to reach $1.2 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 5.5%. North America is expected to dominate this market. More broadly, the global binoculars market (including defense applications) was valued at USD 1.18 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 1.81 billion by 2034, at a CAGR of 4.93%. North America accounted for a 32.43% market share in 2025. The global Military Binocular Night Vision Device market is projected to reach $4.02 billion by 2025, with a CAGR of 8.3% during 2025-2033.
- Military Laser Systems: Relevant for Optex's laser filter units and related optical components, the global military laser system market was valued at USD 5.7 billion in 2024 and is estimated to grow to USD 14 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 9.6%. Another report values the global market at USD 4.12 billion in 2023, projected to reach USD 7.61 billion by 2031 at a CAGR of 8.04%. The U.S. Military Laser Systems market was valued at USD 1.64 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 2.68 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 6.30%.
- Precision Optics: The broader precision optics market, which includes optical components like lenses, mirrors, and prisms used in advanced optical solutions and relevant to Optex's optical assemblies, day windows, and specialty thin film coatings, is valued at $29.0 billion in 2024 and is predicted to reach $92.9 billion by 2034 at a 12.7% CAGR.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Optex Systems (OPXS) over the next 2-3 years:- Increased Defense Spending and Demand for Opto-Mechanical Assemblies: Optex Systems is positioned to benefit from increased defense spending, which is driving higher demand for its opto-mechanical assemblies. The company plans to increase its investment to meet this anticipated demand. This aligns with their strong exposure to defense budgets.
- Growth in Periscope Production and New Product Development: The company has experienced significant growth in periscope production and is actively engaged in new product development, such as for the XM30 program. Higher periscope production and increased XM30 activity, along with stronger demand for muzzle reference systems and binocular products, contributed to revenue growth in the Optex-Richardson segment.
- International Expansion and New Defense Platform Wins: Optex Systems aims to expand its presence in international markets, including Europe and the Middle East, through ITAR registration and partnerships. Furthermore, potential wins on new defense platforms are expected to contribute to future revenue. The company has secured new contracts, including a $2.8 million award for XM30 and a $10.2 million five-year optical sighting system contract.
- Improved Contract Terms and Pricing: Optex Systems anticipates that its gross margins will strengthen as older, less favorably priced contracts conclude and are replaced with new contracts that incorporate more favorable terms and pricing. This shift towards higher-margin programs is expected to contribute to sustained revenue growth.
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Share Repurchases
- On February 9, 2026, Optex Systems approved a new stock repurchase program authorizing the company to purchase up to $10 million of its outstanding common stock, replacing an existing program.
- On September 22, 2021, Optex Systems authorized a $1.0 million stock repurchase program.
- In April 2021, the company completed a previous stock buyback program, initiated in June 2020, through which it repurchased 519,266 shares.
Share Issuance
- The number of shares outstanding for Optex Systems increased by 0.78% in one year.
Outbound Investments
- Optex Systems is actively pursuing strategic acquisitions to strengthen its existing product line and expand its market presence, as of December 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Optex Systems plans to spend $2.4 million in capital investment over fiscal year 2026 to expand capacity, develop new capabilities for adjacent markets, and replace obsolete equipment.
- During the three months ended December 28, 2025, the company invested $0.5 million in property and equipment and has committed an additional $0.5 million for purchases including a DLC coater and a prototype metal machining center.
- For the twelve months ended September 28, 2025, capital assets purchased totaled $0.5 million.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Optex Systems Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| With Optex Systems Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04172026 | RSG | Republic Services | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.1% |
| 04102026 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.3% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | UHAL | U-Haul | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.3% | 0.3% | -1.0% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 49.49 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.7 |
| Rev LTM | 69 |
| Op Inc LTM | 9 |
| FCF LTM | -0 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1 |
| CFO LTM | 5 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 3.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 42.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 3.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -2.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 0.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.7 |
| P/S | 5.7 |
| P/Op Inc | 47.3 |
| P/EBIT | 48.2 |
| P/E | 67.5 |
| P/CFO | 34.2 |
| Total Yield | 1.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.4% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 14.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 28.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 78.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 170.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 221.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 21.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 73.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 137.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 146.5% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Optex Richardson | 18 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 17 |
| Applied Optics Center Dallas | 17 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 10 |
| Other (non-allocated costs and intersegment eliminations) | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -2 |
| Total | 34 | 26 | 22 | 18 | 26 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Applied Optics Center Dallas | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| Optex Richardson | 2 | 1 | -0 | 0 | 2 |
| Other (non-allocated costs and intersegment eliminations) | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 |
| Total | 5 | 3 | 2 | -0 | 3 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Optex Richardson | 17 | 14 | 11 | 14 | 15 |
| Applied Optics Center Dallas | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| Other (non-allocated costs and intersegment eliminations) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 26 | 22 | 19 | 21 | 20 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $10.42 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/04/2009 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -39.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $12.17 | $13.33 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | -14.4% | -21.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 66.0% | 74.0% |
| Downside Capture | 1.49 | 0.92 |
| Upside Capture | 72.07 | 181.79 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 27.3% | 31.5% |
OPXS Betas & Captures as of 4/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.19 | 1.02 | 1.48 | 1.67 | 1.83 | 0.69 |
| Up Beta | 0.59 | 0.03 | 0.82 | 1.65 | 1.80 | 0.57 |
| Down Beta | 1.80 | 0.19 | 0.34 | 1.41 | 2.37 | 0.88 |
| Up Capture | -13% | 88% | 110% | 108% | 240% | 65% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 18 | 25 | 55 | 128 | 373 |
| Down Capture | 1104% | 228% | 250% | 191% | 135% | 73% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 25 | 39 | 68 | 120 | 360 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with OPXS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPXS | 53.0% | 73.8% | 0.88 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 30.6% | 15.6% | 1.51 | 26.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 28.1% | 12.5% | 1.78 | 32.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 42.9% | 26.9% | 1.30 | 8.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.6% | 18.0% | 2.14 | 1.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.6% | 13.5% | 0.70 | 3.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -22.4% | 41.7% | -0.50 | 24.6% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with OPXS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPXS | 22.4% | 57.7% | 0.78 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.8% | 17.4% | 0.58 | 17.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 17.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.2% | 17.9% | 0.96 | 8.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 13.5% | 19.1% | 0.58 | 4.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.6% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 5.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.5% | 56.0% | 0.36 | 16.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with OPXS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPXS | 11.7% | 57.0% | 0.72 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 14.0% | 20.0% | 0.62 | 18.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 19.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.70 | 8.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.5% | 17.7% | 0.45 | 9.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 12.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.1% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 12.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 12/17/2025 | 6.7% | 9.5% | 16.2% |
| 5/13/2025 | 14.5% | 24.5% | 46.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 10.6% | 17.0% | 31.1% |
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | 14.5% | 24.5% | 46.1% |
| Max Negative | |||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/11/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 12/17/2025 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 12/19/2024 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/14/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 12/18/2023 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/16/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/16/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/13/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 12/19/2022 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/15/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/16/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 2/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 2.40 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.40 Mil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 12/17/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Capital Investment | 2.40 Mil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George, Chad Michael | CEO and President | Direct | Sell | 3132026 | 13.62 | 7,035 | Form | ||
| 2 | Schoening, Danny Robert | Direct | Sell | 1092026 | 14.06 | 28,924 | 406,541 | 11,198,437 | Form | |
| 3 | Schoening, Danny Robert | Direct | Sell | 1092026 | 13.44 | 27,946 | 375,594 | 11,096,790 | Form | |
| 4 | Schoening, Danny Robert | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 13.02 | 14,066 | 183,139 | 11,113,872 | Form | |
| 5 | Schoening, Danny Robert | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 13.08 | 5,495 | 71,875 | 11,349,071 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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