Oportun Financial (OPRT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.21 | Market Cap: $243.4 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Consumer Finance
Oportun Financial (OPRT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.21Market Cap: $243.4 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Consumer Finance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.5%, FCF Yield is 129% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -79% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 916% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 49% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.5% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 97%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 91% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and AI-Powered Credit Underwriting. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.5%, FCF Yield is 129% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 49% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 97%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 91% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and AI-Powered Credit Underwriting. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -79% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 916% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.5% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
OPRT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Oportun Financial (OPRT) experienced an approximate 20% stock price decline between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, influenced by several key factors:
1. JPMorgan Chase & Co. Downgrade and Lowered Price Target: In early October 2025, JPMorgan Chase & Co. reaffirmed an "underweight" rating for Oportun Financial and reduced its price target for the stock from $8.00 to $6.00. This downgrade and a significantly lower price target likely contributed to negative investor sentiment.
2. Cautious Market Reaction to Q3 2025 Earnings Despite EPS Beat: On November 4, 2025, Oportun Financial reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.39 for the third quarter of 2025, exceeding analyst expectations. However, despite this positive earnings surprise, the stock still fell by 3.92% in after-hours trading, indicating a cautious market sentiment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OPRT Return | -19% | 5% | -73% | -29% | -1% | 32% | -78% |
| Peers Return | 1% | 28% | -29% | 33% | 27% | 24% | 92% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OPRT Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 25% | 67% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 50% | 28% | 40% | 45% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OPRT Max Drawdown | -78% | -20% | -80% | -61% | -46% | -7% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -30% | -5% | -34% | -15% | -15% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PRAA, SUIG, AXP, COF, SOFI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OPRT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -92.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1190.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -77.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 350.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 469 days | 148 days |
Compare to PRAA, SUIG, AXP, COF, SOFI
In The Past
Oportun Financial's stock fell -92.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/12/2021. A -92.2% loss requires a 1190.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to OPRT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Oportun Financial
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 23.08 |
| Mkt Cap | 34.0 |
| Rev LTM | 2,232 |
| Op Inc LTM | 207 |
| FCF LTM | 189 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 183 |
| CFO LTM | 201 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 196 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 29.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 46.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 10.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 38.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 35.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 34.0 |
| P/S | 2.8 |
| P/EBIT | 2.5 |
| P/E | 21.8 |
| P/CFO | 0.7 |
| Total Yield | 4.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 10.7% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 18.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 23.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 143.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 4.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 8.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 67.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3142023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |