OppFi (OPFI)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $10.72 | Market Cap: $301.9 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Consumer Finance
OppFi (OPFI)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $10.72Market Cap: $301.9 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Consumer Finance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 22%, Dividend Yield is 20%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 17%, FCF Yield is 113% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 90% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 62% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 82x | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 63% | Key risksOPFI key risks include [1] regulatory and legal challenges to its core "true lender" bank partnership model and [2] significant credit default exposure inherent to its non-prime borrower base. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and AI for Fraud Detection. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 22%, Dividend Yield is 20%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 17%, FCF Yield is 113% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 62% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 63% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and AI for Fraud Detection. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 90% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 82x |
| Key risksOPFI key risks include [1] regulatory and legal challenges to its core "true lender" bank partnership model and [2] significant credit default exposure inherent to its non-prime borrower base. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
OPFI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Financial Performance and Upward Guidance
OppFi demonstrated robust financial performance with record revenue and adjusted net income in 2024 and into the first quarter of 2025. Management subsequently increased its 2025 revenue guidance to $578-605 million and adjusted net income guidance to $125-130 million, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) expected at $1.39-1.44. The third quarter of 2025 also saw record performance across several metrics, leading to an upward revision of earnings guidance.
2. Improving Credit Performance and Lower Net Charge-offs
The company reported improvements in its credit performance, with management attributing quarterly gains to lower net charge-offs and higher yields. The net charge-off rate as a percentage of average receivables improved in late 2024 and early 2025. While there was a slight rise in net charge-offs in Q3 2025, the risk was considered appropriately priced into the loans.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OPFI Return | � | -55% | -55% | 150% | 56% | 48% | � |
| Peers Return | � | 126% | -52% | 83% | 42% | 26% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OPFI Win Rate | 100% | 25% | 25% | 50% | 67% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 58% | 27% | 57% | 47% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OPFI Max Drawdown | � | -58% | -58% | -15% | -54% | -6% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | -5% | -61% | -12% | -19% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ENVA, OMF, UPST, LC, WRLD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OPFI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -84.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 549.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 665 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -1.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 12 days | 148 days |
Compare to PRAA, SUIG, AXP, COF, SOFI
In The Past
OppFi's stock fell -84.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/10/2021. A -84.6% loss requires a 549.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to OPFI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for OppFi
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 56.50 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.1 |
| Rev LTM | 954 |
| Op Inc LTM | 369 |
| FCF LTM | 308 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 284 |
| CFO LTM | 319 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 293 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 14.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 37.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 33.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 53.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 53.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 52.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 51.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.1 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/EBIT | 4.2 |
| P/E | 16.0 |
| P/CFO | 1.2 |
| Total Yield | 8.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 41.2% |
| D/E | 0.9 |
| Net D/E | 0.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 17.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 31.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 175.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 16.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -1.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 16.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 80.4% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 509 | 453 | 351 | |
| Total | 509 | 453 | 351 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 46 | |||
| Total | 46 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | -1 | |||
| Total | -1 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 245 | |||
| Total | 245 |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | 3.8% | -3.2% | -2.3% |
| 8/6/2025 | 13.4% | 8.0% | 4.6% |
| 3/5/2025 | 10.8% | -1.5% | 7.9% |
| 11/7/2024 | -1.8% | -0.8% | 3.3% |
| 8/7/2024 | 13.3% | 38.6% | 24.5% |
| 3/7/2024 | -23.5% | -33.5% | -32.5% |
| 10/18/2023 | 7.7% | 6.2% | 46.4% |
| 8/9/2023 | 3.1% | 12.5% | 18.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 6 | 9 |
| # Negative | 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 6.3% | 8.5% | 8.3% |
| Median Negative | -11.2% | -17.6% | -15.1% |
| Max Positive | 13.4% | 38.6% | 46.4% |
| Max Negative | -23.5% | -33.5% | -37.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3112025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5112023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3292023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |