Oklo (OKLO)
Market Price (3/15/2026): $58.31 | Market Cap: $8.8 BilSector: Utilities | Industry: Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders
Oklo (OKLO)
Market Price (3/15/2026): $58.31Market Cap: $8.8 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -10% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Datacenter Power, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Mini Nuclear, Show more. | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -98 Mil | |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 144% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.0% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 110% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -10% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Datacenter Power, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Mini Nuclear, Show more. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -98 Mil |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 144% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.0% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 110% |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Substantial Insider Selling by Executives. Oklo experienced significant insider selling, notably by CFO Richard C. Bealmear, who sold 69,841 shares for over $5.46 million on December 17, 2025. Additionally, Co-Founder and COO Caroline Cochran sold 200,000 shares for approximately $12 million to $12.8 million on March 2, 2026, and CEO Jacob DeWitte sold roughly 200,000 shares for about $12.66 million on the same date. Cumulative insider sales across key executives reportedly exceeded $100 million between December 2025 and February 2026, and over $440 million in the past six months with no corresponding insider purchases, indicating a notable lack of insider buying confidence.
2. Concerns over Share Dilution from a Large Equity Offering. In early December 2025, Oklo announced a $1.5 billion "at-the-market" equity offering, which raised concerns among investors about potential share dilution. This move to raise capital through stock sales unsettled investors, particularly given the company's pre-revenue status.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -36.1% change in OKLO stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 91.38 | 58.37 | -36.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 150 | 150 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OKLO | -36.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | -3.1% | 50.0% |
| Sector (XLU) | 3.6% | 1.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -20.7% change in OKLO stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -6.8% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 73.64 | 58.37 | -20.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 140 | 150 | -6.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OKLO | -20.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.0% | 43.5% |
| Sector (XLU) | 12.1% | 17.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 74.8% change in OKLO stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 33.39 | 58.37 | 74.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | � | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 70 | 150 | -53.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OKLO | 74.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.4% | 41.6% |
| Sector (XLU) | 21.0% | 21.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OKLO | 477.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.4% | 29.3% |
| Sector (XLU) | 57.3% | 18.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OKLO Return | -1% | 1% | 6% | 101% | 238% | -13% | 529% |
| Peers Return | 32% | -3% | 11% | 206% | 79% | 3% | 703% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 80% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OKLO Win Rate | 17% | 67% | 67% | 58% | 58% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 42% | 53% | 66% | 62% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OKLO Max Drawdown | -2% | -2% | 0% | -47% | -7% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -28% | -33% | -26% | -22% | -10% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -2% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: SMR, NNE, BWXT, GEV, LEU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OKLO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -5.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 5.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 306 days | 464 days |
Compare to SMR, NNE, BWXT, GEV, LEU
In The Past
Oklo's stock fell -5.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/29/2021. A -5.0% loss requires a 5.3% gain to breakeven.
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About Oklo (OKLO)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Fission Power Plants: Oklo designs and develops advanced fission power plants for commercial-scale energy generation.
- Used Nuclear Fuel Recycling Services: The company offers services for recycling used nuclear fuel.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Oklo Inc. (OKLO) primarily sells its fission power plants and used nuclear fuel recycling services to other companies and potentially government entities, not individuals. As of early 2024, Oklo is in the early stages of commercializing its technology, and definitive operational power plant contracts with revenue streams are still being established. However, the company has publicly announced significant partnerships and letters of intent with the following prospective major customers:
- Diamondback Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: FANG): Oklo announced a partnership with Diamondback Energy in September 2023 to explore opportunities for Diamondback to deploy Oklo's advanced fission power plants to provide clean, reliable, and cost-effective power to Diamondback's operations.
- Compass Mining: In July 2022, Oklo announced a non-binding letter of intent (LOI) to provide clean power to Compass Mining's cryptocurrency operations. Compass Mining is a private company that provides cryptocurrency mining hosting services.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Centrus Energy Corp. (LEU)
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The most significant clear emerging threat to Oklo Inc. comes from other well-funded and advanced nuclear reactor developers that are also vying for market share in the nascent advanced fission power plant industry. Specifically, companies like TerraPower are developing advanced reactor designs, such as the Natrium reactor (a sodium-cooled fast reactor), which directly compete with Oklo's fission power plant offerings.
TerraPower, backed by prominent figures like Bill Gates and partnerships with companies like GE-Hitachi, has secured substantial government funding and is actively progressing towards the deployment of a demonstration plant in Wyoming. Should TerraPower or similar competitors achieve faster regulatory approvals, demonstrate superior cost-effectiveness, or accelerate their path to commercialization and deployment, they could capture a significant portion of the early market for advanced nuclear solutions, thereby limiting Oklo's potential for growth and market penetration.
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Trade Ideas
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12122025 | CTRI | Centuri | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 16.6% | 16.6% | -5.5% |
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.8% | 6.8% | -4.0% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.5% | 27.5% | -0.8% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 36.9% | 36.9% | -3.2% |
| 08312025 | BWXT | BWX Technologies | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 27.3% | 27.3% | -1.2% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 126.25 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.4 |
| Rev LTM | 240 |
| Op Inc LTM | -2 |
| FCF LTM | 2 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 24 |
| CFO LTM | 15 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 32 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 16.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 0.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -3.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.4 |
| P/S | 7.2 |
| P/EBIT | 17.1 |
| P/E | 16.9 |
| P/CFO | 14.4 |
| Total Yield | 0.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.5% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -7.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -24.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -17.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 122.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 408.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -27.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -19.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 90.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 302.4% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $58.37 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 8.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/08/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -66.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $76.16 | $85.92 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -23.4% | -32.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 92.1% | 110.1% |
| Downside Capture | 529.92 | 353.13 |
| Upside Capture | 378.42 | 381.32 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 53.8% | 40.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.99 | 3.90 | 4.51 | 4.00 | 2.36 | 2.02 |
| Up Beta | 6.75 | 6.24 | 4.13 | 1.52 | 1.80 | 1.78 |
| Down Beta | -2.17 | 1.86 | 2.96 | 1.72 | 1.74 | 2.05 |
| Up Capture | 276% | 408% | 523% | 1170% | 1885% | 3036% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 28 | 62 | 124 | 355 |
| Down Capture | 612% | 397% | 451% | 325% | 167% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 20 | 32 | 61 | 124 | 336 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with OKLO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKLO | 105.1% | 110.1% | 1.15 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 24.4% | 15.4% | 1.21 | 22.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.6% | 18.9% | 0.81 | 41.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 71.9% | 26.3% | 2.05 | 13.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.3% | 17.3% | 0.89 | 15.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.2% | 16.3% | 0.19 | 15.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -15.3% | 44.2% | -0.25 | 36.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with OKLO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKLO | 39.7% | 86.8% | 0.83 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 12.4% | 17.1% | 0.57 | 14.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.0% | 0.61 | 21.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.1% | 17.3% | 1.14 | 11.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 5.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 7.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.3% | 56.7% | 0.33 | 16.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with OKLO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKLO | 18.2% | 86.8% | 0.83 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 10.5% | 19.1% | 0.48 | 14.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 21.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.4% | 15.6% | 0.77 | 11.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 5.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 7.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 16.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/24/2025 | -6.4% | -30.0% | -24.4% |
| 11/14/2024 | -24.6% | 5.7% | -22.6% |
| 8/13/2024 | 2.6% | -6.7% | -16.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| # Negative | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Median Positive | 2.6% | 5.7% | |
| Median Negative | -15.5% | -18.4% | -22.6% |
| Max Positive | 2.6% | 5.7% | |
| Max Negative | -24.6% | -30.0% | -24.4% |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cochran, Caroline | Co-Founder, COO | Caroline Cochran GRAT | Sell | 1062026 | 90.29 | 100,000 | 9,029,100 | 133,630,680 | Form |
| 2 | Cochran, Caroline | Co-Founder, COO | Jacob DeWitte GRAT | Sell | 1062026 | 90.29 | 100,000 | 9,029,100 | 133,630,680 | Form |
| 3 | Dewitte, Jacob | Co-Founder, CEO | Jacob DeWitte GRAT | Sell | 1062026 | 90.29 | 100,000 | 9,029,100 | 133,630,680 | Form |
| 4 | Dewitte, Jacob | Co-Founder, CEO | Caroline Cochran GRAT | Sell | 1062026 | 90.29 | 100,000 | 9,029,100 | 133,630,680 | Form |
| 5 | Cochran, Caroline | Co-Founder, COO | Caroline Cochran GRAT | Sell | 12232025 | 82.32 | 420,000 | 34,575,279 | 130,068,905 | Form |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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