Once Upon a Farm PBC (OFRM)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $15.19 | Market Cap: $611.1 MilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Once Upon a Farm PBC (OFRM)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $15.19Market Cap: $611.1 MilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 53% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -49%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -89% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.7 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.4% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more. | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15% | |
| Key risksOFRM key risks include [1] sustained operating losses despite revenue growth and [2] supply chain vulnerabilities tied to its reliance on fresh, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 53% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -49%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -89% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.7 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.4% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15% |
| Key risksOFRM key risks include [1] sustained operating losses despite revenue growth and [2] supply chain vulnerabilities tied to its reliance on fresh, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Once Upon a Farm PBC (OFRM) stock has lost about 30% since it went public on 2/6/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Once Upon a Farm's fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance disappointed investors, despite stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter results.
The company reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $64 million, exceeding analysts' expectations of $62.65 million, and met EPS estimates at $0.11. However, the forecast for fiscal year 2026 revenue, projected between $302 million and $310 million (midpoint $306 million), fell short of investor expectations, causing the stock to tumble 9.2% in after-hours trading following the earnings report on March 12, 2026.
2. Persistent unprofitability raised investor concerns for the newly public company.
Despite significant revenue growth—53.5% in 2025 to $240.7 million—Once Upon a Farm continues to operate at a loss. The company reported a net loss of $17.2 million for the full fiscal year 2025. This ongoing unprofitability, with a trailing 12-month EBITDA of -$7.67 million, despite a gross profit margin of 41.75%, likely weighed on investor sentiment for a company that went public on February 6, 2026.
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1. Once Upon a Farm's fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance disappointed investors, despite stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter results.
The company reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $64 million, exceeding analysts' expectations of $62.65 million, and met EPS estimates at $0.11. However, the forecast for fiscal year 2026 revenue, projected between $302 million and $310 million (midpoint $306 million), fell short of investor expectations, causing the stock to tumble 9.2% in after-hours trading following the earnings report on March 12, 2026.
2. Persistent unprofitability raised investor concerns for the newly public company.
Despite significant revenue growth—53.5% in 2025 to $240.7 million—Once Upon a Farm continues to operate at a loss. The company reported a net loss of $17.2 million for the full fiscal year 2025. This ongoing unprofitability, with a trailing 12-month EBITDA of -$7.67 million, despite a gross profit margin of 41.75%, likely weighed on investor sentiment for a company that went public on February 6, 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OFRM | ||
| Market (SPY) | -5.3% | 28.3% |
| Sector (XLP) | 3.9% | -1.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OFRM | ||
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 28.3% |
| Sector (XLP) | 2.8% | -1.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OFRM | ||
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 28.3% |
| Sector (XLP) | 1.1% | -1.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OFRM | ||
| Market (SPY) | 69.4% | 28.3% |
| Sector (XLP) | 23.1% | -1.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OFRM Return | - | - | - | - | - | -24% | -24% |
| Peers Return | 16% | -7% | -9% | -13% | -23% | -16% | -45% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -5% | 72% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OFRM Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 45% | 47% | 47% | 42% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OFRM Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -7% | -25% | -22% | -18% | -27% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -5% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: HAIN, GIS, ABT, KHC, MDLZ.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
OFRM has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) in its place.
| Event | XLP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 682 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -24.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 154 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -16.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 404 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -33.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 605 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to HAIN, GIS, ABT, KHC, MDLZ
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -17.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -17.5% loss requires a 21.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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About Once Upon a Farm PBC (OFRM)
At Once Upon a Farm, we are driving systemic change in childhood nutrition with real, organic, farm-fresh food–made with no added sugar, no preservatives, and nothing artificial. From baby’s first bites to kid’s school-ready snacks, we are a rapidly growing leader in modern childhood nutrition that provides innovative, nutrient-packed, delicious food to on-the-go parents for their babies and kids. We revolutionized the childhood nutrition category with what we believe is the first-ever cold-pressed Pouch, setting a new standard for nutrition that parents love and kids crave. From one mother’s kitchen and farmers markets to a beloved household brand, we are the #1 growth brand in the category(1), elevating parents’ expectations for the food their children consume and eliminating the need to compromise taste and quality for convenience. Our mission and commitment to our consumers guide every decision we make and are at the heart of our identity and journey ahead. We are a public benefit corporation, which requires us to uphold high social and environmental standards and provide transparency for all of our stockholders. Additionally, we believe we are the first baby through kid parent-ally brand with a deep commitment to superior, fresh products with high nutritional standards and incredible taste. Our thoughtful recipes are crafted with high-quality organic ingredients, from cold-pressed Pouches and freshly Frozen Meals, to Refrigerated Oat Bars and Dry Baby Snacks, earning us the trust of parents, and fostering a loyal, passionate, and fast-growing consumer base that accounted for approximately $79 billion in retail sales in the 52 weeks ended September 7, 2025(2). Our success in developing nutritious food that kids love, and parents feel good providing, has resulted in a remarkable growth trajectory. We have surpassed $318 million of in-store retail sales, according to management estimates, and are the #1 brand driving dollar growth in the categories we play in for the 52 weeks ended September 7, 2025. Our products are available in the aisles where parents frequently shop and are sold in more than 25,000(3) doors nationwide across U.S. Multi-Outlet (“MULO”) and the Natural Expanded channel. We have strong relationships with well-known retailers, both in brick-and-mortar stores and e-commerce. We believe we are distinct and attractive to our retail customers as we sell in both the fresh perimeter and center of store allowing for an “all aisle” presence for our consumers that is available on-premise and online. Our playbook is effective as we unlock incremental traffic and growth in the aisles our products are presented in, and our velocities have remained best-in-class as our distribution has expanded. Retailers value this given that we help attract larger basket shoppers and generate better margin outcomes. For example, in baby food we are the #1 growth brand and more than 60% incremental to the category, with upwards of 35% new purchasing as of July 13, 2024, according to management estimates. We believe our brand is enhancing childhood nutrition options and categories as we provide modern, better-for-you products that yield satisfaction and smiles. We were incorporated in Delaware in February 2014. In March 2021, we became a Delaware public benefit corporation. Our principal executive offices are located in Berkeley, CA.
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- Cold-pressed Pouches: Nutrient-packed, cold-pressed food in a convenient pouch format, setting a new standard for childhood nutrition.
- Freshly Frozen Meals: Prepared meals that are frozen to maintain freshness and nutritional value for babies and kids.
- Refrigerated Oat Bars: Snack bars made with high-quality organic oats, designed to be kept refrigerated for freshness.
- Dry Baby Snacks: Shelf-stable snack options specifically crafted for babies, made with organic ingredients.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Once Upon a Farm PBC (OFRM) primarily sells its products to other companies, specifically a network of retailers.
The company states it has strong relationships with well-known retailers across U.S. Multi-Outlet (“MULO”) and Natural Expanded channels, including both brick-and-mortar stores and e-commerce platforms. However, the provided background information does not explicitly name these major customer companies.
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John Foraker Co-Founder & CEO
John Foraker is the Co-Founder and CEO of Once Upon a Farm. He is a natural and organic food industry veteran with over 30 years of experience. Prior to Once Upon a Farm, he was the longtime leader of Annie's, Inc. from 1999 to 2017, taking the company public in 2012 before its acquisition by General Mills for $820 million in 2014. He then advised General Mills' small business incubator, 301, Inc. Once Upon a Farm itself has received funding from private equity firms, including CAVU Consumer Partners.
Lawrence Waldman President & CFO
Lawrence Waldman serves as the President and Chief Financial Officer of Once Upon a Farm. He previously held the role of COO & CFO from November 2017 to May 2022, and then President and COO from May 2022 before assuming his current position. His background includes experience as an independent Supply Chain Consultant and as a Board Member, President, and CFO/COO at ALOHA Nutrition. He has also held senior roles in supply chain, operations, and finance at companies such as Annie's Inc. and Columbus Foods.
Jennifer Garner Co-Founder & Chief Brand Officer
Jennifer Garner is a Co-Founder and Chief Brand Officer at Once Upon a Farm. An actress, philanthropist, and mother of three, she joined the company in September 2017, guiding its overall vision with a focus on brand voice, design, and activation. Her family's century-old farm in Locust Grove, Oklahoma, serves as inspiration for some of the company's recipes.
Cassandra Curtis Co-Founder & Chief Innovation Officer
Cassandra Curtis is a Co-Founder and Chief Innovation Officer for Once Upon a Farm. She co-founded the company in 2015 with Ari Raz, developing the original cold-pressed, organic baby food recipes in her own kitchen due to a lack of nutritious options available in stores for her daughter. She is responsible for leading product innovation and developing products using high-quality organic ingredients.
Ari Raz Co-Founder & President
Ari Raz is a Co-Founder and President of Once Upon a Farm. He co-founded the company in 2015 alongside Cassandra Curtis. In his role, he guides aspects of the company's business operations and helps ensure product distribution.
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Key Business Risks for Once Upon a Farm PBC (OFRM)
- Maintaining Product Quality, Safety, and Consumer Trust: Once Upon a Farm’s brand identity and market success are critically tied to its commitment to providing "real, organic, farm-fresh food—made with no added sugar, no preservatives, and nothing artificial." As a public benefit corporation, the company is also required to uphold high social and environmental standards and provide transparency. Any perceived or actual failure to maintain these stringent product standards, ensure product safety, or uphold its public benefit commitments could severely damage consumer trust, brand reputation, and sales. Furthermore, the reliance on "high-quality organic ingredients" introduces risks related to the availability, cost, and consistent sourcing of these specific inputs, which could impact production and profitability.
- Competitive Landscape and Sustaining Market Leadership: Despite being a "rapidly growing leader" and the "#1 growth brand" in the categories it plays in, the childhood nutrition market is likely competitive and subject to evolving consumer preferences and innovations. Maintaining its current growth trajectory and market leadership will require continuous product development, effective marketing strategies, and the ability to adapt to competitive pressures and changing dietary trends among parents and children.
- Dependence on Retailer Relationships and Distribution Channels: Once Upon a Farm's products are sold in "more than 25,000 doors nationwide" and the company highlights "strong relationships with well-known retailers." A significant portion of its sales and market reach relies on these established distribution channels. Any disruption to these key retailer relationships, changes in retailers' merchandising or procurement strategies, or challenges in maintaining effective distribution across its multi-outlet and natural expanded channels could negatively impact product availability, sales, and overall market presence.
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The addressable market for Once Upon a Farm PBC's main products and services, which include organic baby and kid food such as cold-pressed pouches, frozen meals, refrigerated oat bars, and dry baby snacks, is estimated to be approximately $79 billion in retail sales annually. This market size is specific to the U.S. region.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Once Upon a Farm PBC (OFRM)
- Expansion of Cooler Program and Retail Distribution: Once Upon a Farm plans to significantly expand its cooler program, targeting 5,000 units by the end of 2026. This expansion, along with increased distribution to new stores and optimizing placement within existing retailers, is expected to enhance brand visibility and drive incremental sales growth. The company currently sells through over 25,000 retail doors nationwide.
- New Product Introductions and Innovation: The company is actively launching innovative products across its baby and kids' categories. Recent introductions in early April 2026 include refrigerated, cold pressure-protected meat pouches for babies, smoothies with protein and probiotics for older children, and Power Wheels soft and chewy snack bars. These new offerings are anticipated to drive continued growth and expand the brand's presence in various aisles.
- Increased Household Penetration: Once Upon a Farm aims to significantly increase its household penetration. With a household penetration of 5.1% as of December 31, 2025, the company sees substantial opportunity to attract new consumers and grow its customer base.
- Higher Average Selling Prices (ASP): Revenue growth in Q4 2025 was partly attributed to higher average selling prices. This suggests a strategy of maintaining premium pricing for its organic, fresh products, contributing to top-line expansion.
- Continued Market Share Gains: As a rapidly growing leader and the "#1 growth brand in the category," Once Upon a Farm is positioned to continue capturing market share within the modern childhood nutrition segment. Its focus on real, organic, no-added-sugar products appeals to parents, fostering strong brand loyalty and advocacy.
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Once Upon a Farm PBC (OFRM) has made the following capital allocation decisions over the last 3-5 years:Share Issuance
- Once Upon a Farm completed an initial public offering (IPO) in February 2026.
- The company issued 7.6 million primary shares of common stock, along with an additional 1.6 million shares through the underwriters' option, at a price of $18 per share.
- The net proceeds to the company from the IPO were approximately $139.3 million.
Inbound Investments
- Prior to its IPO, Once Upon a Farm raised $52 million in a funding round in 2022.
- As of June 30, 2025, the company had received $110.4 million in fair market value investments from investors including Cambridge Companies SPG, CAVU Venture Partners, and S2G Investments.
Outbound Investments
- The company's most recent acquisition was Raised Real on June 22, 2021.
Capital Expenditures
- Once Upon a Farm allocated approximately $25 million of its IPO proceeds towards purchasing new equipment for operations.
- The company reported increased investments in capital expenditures to support its growth, which contributed to a decrease in net cash as of December 31, 2025.
- A significant focus of capital expenditures is on upfront slotting fees for placing more coolers in stores and for research and development, with plans to expand its baby aisle cooler program to 5,000 units by the end of 2026.
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to OFRM.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02272026 | BRBR | BellRing Brands | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | STZ | Constellation Brands | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | KMB | Kimberly-Clark | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -1.7% |
| 02062026 | AVO | Mission Produce | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.1% | 1.1% | -2.7% |
| 01302026 | ABT | Abbott Laboratories | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.5% | 6.5% | -1.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 29.25 |
| Mkt Cap | 26.1 |
| Rev LTM | 21,859 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,266 |
| FCF LTM | 2,509 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,215 |
| CFO LTM | 3,411 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,207 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 0.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 26.1 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/EBIT | 6.7 |
| P/E | 7.7 |
| P/CFO | 8.3 |
| Total Yield | 5.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | 0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -15.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -18.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -23.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -25.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -30.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -19.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -35.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -91.3% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/12/2026 | -7.3% | -14.7% | |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | -7.3% | -14.7% | |
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | -7.3% | -14.7% | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robb, Walter E Iv | Direct | Buy | 2092026 | 18.00 | 5,555 | 99,990 | 2,627,460 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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