Once Upon a Farm PBC (OFRM)
Market Price (3/9/2026): $20.77 | Market Cap: $835.6 MilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Once Upon a Farm PBC (OFRM)
Market Price (3/9/2026): $20.77Market Cap: $835.6 MilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -72% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -8.8 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3.9% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14% | ||
| Key risksOFRM key risks include [1] sustained operating losses despite revenue growth and [2] supply chain vulnerabilities tied to its reliance on fresh, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -72% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -8.8 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3.9% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14% |
| Key risksOFRM key risks include [1] sustained operating losses despite revenue growth and [2] supply chain vulnerabilities tied to its reliance on fresh, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Initial IPO Surge Followed by Stabilization.
Once Upon a Farm's stock experienced a significant initial surge after its IPO on February 6, 2026, peaking at $26.00 on its second trading day, which represented a 44% increase from its initial public offering price of $18.00 per share. This strong debut indicated robust market demand. However, this initial pop was followed by a stabilization phase, with the stock settling into a trading range above its IPO price but below its immediate post-IPO peak, as early investor enthusiasm normalized and some profit-taking likely occurred. The stock traded within a 52-week range of $20.11 to $27.00 as of March 5, 2026.
2. Mixed Financial Profile and Valuation Concerns.
Despite demonstrating strong top-line growth with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 64.6% from 2018 through 2025 and maintaining healthy gross margins between 40% and 44%, Once Upon a Farm reported a net loss of $48.12 million on revenue of $201.59 million for the twelve months ending June 30, 2025. The company's Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 3.7x is considerably higher than the US Food industry average of 0.8x and its peer average of 1.6x. This high valuation, coupled with its unprofitability, may have limited sustained upward momentum in the short term, despite its strong growth trajectory.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OFRM | ||
| Market (SPY) | -1.6% | 26.7% |
| Sector (XLP) | 8.1% | -2.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OFRM | ||
| Market (SPY) | 4.5% | 26.7% |
| Sector (XLP) | 6.9% | -2.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OFRM | ||
| Market (SPY) | 14.2% | 26.7% |
| Sector (XLP) | 5.2% | -2.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OFRM | ||
| Market (SPY) | 76.0% | 26.7% |
| Sector (XLP) | 28.1% | -2.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OFRM Return | - | - | - | - | - | 4% | 4% |
| Peers Return | 16% | -7% | -9% | -13% | -23% | -8% | -40% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 82% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OFRM Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 45% | 47% | 47% | 42% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OFRM Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -2% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -7% | -25% | -22% | -18% | -27% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: HAIN, GIS, ABT, KHC, MDLZ.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
OFRM has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) in its place.
| Event | XLP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 682 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -24.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 154 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -16.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 404 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -33.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 605 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to HAIN, GIS, ABT, KHC, MDLZ
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -17.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -17.5% loss requires a 21.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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About Once Upon a Farm PBC (OFRM)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Once Upon a Farm PBC:
- Chobani for baby food
- Plum Organics for the refrigerated aisle
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Organic Baby Food Purees: Cold-pressed, refrigerated purees made from organic fruits and vegetables, typically packaged in pouches for infants.
- Organic Kids' Smoothies & Meals: Refrigerated, ready-to-eat organic fruit and vegetable blends or complete meals, also in pouches, designed for toddlers and older children.
- Organic Overnight Oats: Pre-prepared, refrigerated overnight oat blends made with organic ingredients, offering a quick breakfast or snack option.
- Organic Dairy-Free Yogurt Alternatives: Plant-based, refrigerated yogurt alternatives crafted from organic fruits, vegetables, and plant milks.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlOnce Upon a Farm PBC (OFRM) primarily sells its products to other companies, specifically major grocery retailers and mass merchandisers, which then sell to individual consumers. While the company also operates a direct-to-consumer e-commerce channel, its primary sales volume comes from these retail partnerships.
Its major customers (retailers) include:
- Whole Foods Market (owned by Amazon.com, Inc., Symbol: AMZN)
- Target Corporation (Symbol: TGT)
- The Kroger Co. (Symbol: KR)
- Walmart Inc. (Symbol: WMT)
- Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (Symbol: SFM)
- Albertsons Companies, Inc. (Symbol: ACI), which operates various chains like Safeway, Vons, and Jewel-Osco.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
John Foraker, Co-Founder, Chief Executive Officer and Chair
John Foraker, appointed CEO in September 2017, is a longtime organic industry pioneer and father of four. From 2003 to 2014, he served as CEO and a director of Annie's Inc., a prominent natural and organic food brand. He played a crucial role in taking Annie's public in 2012, prior to its acquisition by General Mills, Inc. for $820 million in 2014. He also held the position of President, Annie's Operating Unit at General Mills Inc. Foraker is also a Partner at Burger Fuel Group Ltd and a Board Member at Urban Remedy. He is responsible for leading Once Upon a Farm's overall growth and championing its mission and values.
Lawrence Waldman, President & Chief Financial Officer
Lawrence Waldman is a performance-driven and financially focused Operations and Financial Executive with extensive experience in the manufacturing, food production, and consumer products industries. He has a proven track record in building supply chains, systems, and improving margins. Waldman has held both COO and CFO positions, managing finance and operations, and has demonstrated success in organizational startups, turnaround initiatives, and scaling supply chains for rapidly growing companies.
Cassandra Curtis, Co-Founder, Chief Innovation Officer
Cassandra Curtis co-founded Once Upon a Farm in 2015, along with Ari Raz, driven by her desire to create nutritious, convenient baby food for her daughter that was not readily available in supermarkets. She is responsible for developing all of the company's organic products. Her previous roles include Founder/Director of Business Development, Training, and Operations at Rooted Transformation; Founder/CEO at Mother's Garden Baby Food; and Co-founder/Director of Development at Fortina Chocolate.
Jennifer Garner, Co-Founder, Chief Brand Officer
Jennifer Garner joined Once Upon a Farm as a co-founder in 2017, alongside John Foraker. As a mother of three and social advocate for children, she guides the company's overall vision, focusing on brand voice, design, and activation. Garner is deeply involved in the company's C-suite, participating in leadership meetings, serving on the board of directors, and engaging in sales calls. She receives compensation for her role as co-founder and "Farmer Jen," which included a $1 million payment and stock options in 2022, with additional payments scheduled for 2026, 2027, and 2028, plus eligibility for a cash bonus tied to the IPO price.
Ari Raz, Co-Founder, President
Ari Raz co-founded Once Upon a Farm in 2015 with Cassandra Curtis. He is responsible for guiding all aspects of the business operations, ensuring products are available in stores.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The public company Once Upon a Farm PBC (OFRM) faces several key business risks, primarily stemming from its financial performance, competitive market, and supply chain vulnerabilities.
- Unprofitability and Sustained Operating Losses: Once Upon a Farm has consistently reported significant operating losses, which have grown as the company expanded. For the 12 months ending June 30, 2025, the company reported a net loss of $48.12 million on revenue of $201.59 million, and a $52 million loss for the year ending last September, up from $19 million in 2022. This indicates that despite revenue growth, the company has yet to achieve profitability, raising concerns about its long-term financial sustainability.
- Intense Competition in the Organic Baby and Kids Food Market: The market for organic baby and kids food is highly competitive, with established players such as Earth's Best, Happy Family Brands, and Plum Organics, along with private-label brands. This intense competition can pressure pricing, limit market share gains, and increase marketing and slotting fees required to secure shelf space in retailers.
- Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Risks Associated with Fresh Ingredients: Once Upon a Farm's business model relies on sourcing fresh, organic fruits and vegetables, often from regions like Mexico and South America. This dependence exposes the company to risks such as trade barriers, potential supply shortages, fluctuating ingredient prices, and the inherent challenges of dealing with fresh products, including contamination and maintaining quality.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The emergence and rapid growth of highly personalized, direct-to-consumer (DTC) baby food services that leverage data, subscription models, and direct delivery to offer customized nutrition tailored to individual babies' developmental stages, dietary needs, and preferences. These services provide a more bespoke and convenient solution than standardized, albeit high-quality, pre-packaged options like Once Upon a Farm, similar to how Netflix's personalized streaming and subscription model disrupted Blockbuster's general rental offerings by providing a superior, tailored experience directly to the consumer's home.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Once Upon a Farm PBC (OFRM) primarily operates within the organic children's nutrition market, offering organic, cold-pressed fruit and veggie blends, refrigerated pouches and bars, and frozen meals for babies, toddlers, and older children.
The addressable markets for Once Upon a Farm's main products and services include:
- Global Organic Baby Food Market: This market is projected to grow from USD 7.92 billion in 2024 to USD 17.48 billion by 2032, exhibiting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 10.39%. Other estimates place the global organic baby food market size at USD 4.82 billion in 2025, increasing to approximately USD 8.67 billion by 2034 with a CAGR of 6.73% from 2025 to 2034. Another report states a valuation of USD 7.35 billion in 2023, expected to reach USD 20.76 billion in 2032, at a CAGR of 12.23% (2024-2032).
- U.S. Organic Baby Food Market: The organic baby food market size in the U.S. is projected to reach an estimated value of USD 2.57 billion by 2032.
- North America Baby Food Market: This broader market, which includes organic and conventional baby food, was valued at USD 7.04 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.7% from 2025 to 2030, reaching an estimated USD 10.36 billion by 2030.
- U.S. Baby Food Market: The overall baby food market size in the U.S. is projected to reach USD 16.72 billion by 2032.
- Global Kids Snacks Market: The global kids snacks market was valued at USD 61.5 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.00% from 2023 to 2030. Another source indicates a valuation of USD 64.98 billion in 2023, with a projection to reach USD 132.66 billion by 2032 at a CAGR of 7.4% during the 2024-2032 period.
- U.S. Kid Snacks Market: This market is predicted to register a CAGR of 4.6% between 2025 and 2035, with a market volume of USD 15.5 billion in 2025.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Once Upon a Farm PBC (OFRM) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- Expansion of Product Offerings: Once Upon a Farm has demonstrated a strong commitment to product innovation and diversification. The company has expanded its portfolio beyond its initial baby food pouches to include refrigerated oat bars (September 2023), dry baby snacks (March 2024), soft baked bars (July 2024), and refrigerated protein bars (January 2025). Furthermore, it launched A2/A2 milk-based shakes and smoothies in the dairy category in 2024 and 2025, alongside a new suite of toddler snacks such as Smart Wheels, Belly Blends, and Smoothie Melts. Future plans include broadening product offerings into new categories like dairy-free smoothies and oat-based meals to cater to evolving consumer preferences and reach a wider age range.
- Expansion of Distribution Channels and Market Presence: The company aims to increase its revenue by expanding its reach across various retail and direct-to-consumer platforms. Once Upon a Farm products are currently sold in over 25,000 locations nationwide across U.S. Multi-Outlet and Natural Expanded channels. A significant growth opportunity lies in broadening its cooler installations and presence in the baby aisle, a space traditionally dominated by shelf-stable products. The strategy also includes entering new retail channels and strengthening existing relationships with major retailers and deepening direct-to-consumer engagement.
- Growth in Customer Base and Household Penetration: Once Upon a Farm has successfully captured a loyal consumer base, evidenced by its rapid sales expansion. A core growth strategy involves increasing household penetration by attracting new customers and deepening engagement with existing ones. The company's focus on providing nutritious, organic, farm-fresh food with no added sugar, preservatives, or artificial ingredients positions it well to appeal to health-conscious parents.
- Capitalizing on the Growing Organic Baby and Kids Food Market: The market for organic baby and kids' food is experiencing robust growth. The global organic baby food sector is projected to grow at an approximate Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.5% through 2030, with North America being a significant driver. Some analyses project this market to expand at a CAGR of 10.39% from 2024 to 2032, indicating a substantial underlying total addressable market for premium, organic offerings. Once Upon a Farm is strategically positioned within this expanding market, leveraging its brand and product characteristics to meet increasing parental demand for cleaner ingredients and sustainable options.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Issuance
- Once Upon a Farm PBC recently completed an Initial Public Offering (IPO) in February 2026, offering 7,631,537 new shares at $18.00 per share.
- The company aimed to raise approximately $111.7 million from its portion of the IPO.
- The total IPO offering, including shares sold by existing stockholders, was approximately $198 million to $209 million for 10,997,209 shares.
Inbound Investments
- In 2022, Once Upon a Farm closed a $52 million Series D funding round.
- Major investors in this round included CAVU Consumer Partners, S2G Investments, and Cambridge Companies SPG.
Outbound Investments
- In 2021, Once Upon a Farm acquired Raised Real, which helped incorporate frozen organic meals into its product offerings and diversify its market reach.
Capital Expenditures
- Once Upon a Farm intends to use some of the net proceeds from its recent IPO to purchase new operational equipment.
- Future capital expenditures are expected to focus on broadening cooler installations and increasing the company's presence in the baby aisle.
- The company's business model is characterized as "asset-lite" and focuses on high growth.
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to OFRM.
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| 02272026 | BRBR | BellRing Brands | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | STZ | Constellation Brands | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | KMB | Kimberly-Clark | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -1.7% |
| 02062026 | AVO | Mission Produce | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.1% | 1.1% | -2.7% |
| 01302026 | ABT | Abbott Laboratories | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.5% | 6.5% | -1.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 34.41 |
| Mkt Cap | 29.1 |
| Rev LTM | 21,859 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,266 |
| FCF LTM | 2,509 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,215 |
| CFO LTM | 3,411 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,207 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 0.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 29.1 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/EBIT | 8.2 |
| P/E | 9.4 |
| P/CFO | 10.1 |
| Total Yield | 5.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -8.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -18.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | -13.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -10.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -32.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -83.6% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robb, Walter E Iv | Direct | Buy | 2092026 | 18.00 | 5,555 | 99,990 | 2,627,460 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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