Orange County Bancorp (OBT)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $29.64 | Market Cap: $395.3 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
Orange County Bancorp (OBT)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $29.64Market Cap: $395.3 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is -4.6% | Key risksOBT key risks include [1] increased borrower defaults on its adjustable-rate loans if interest rates rise and [2] potential credit losses from its higher-risk consumer loan portfolio. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -35% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Localized Financial Services. Themes include Community Lending, Regional Economic Support, and Personalized Banking Services. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Localized Financial Services. Themes include Community Lending, Regional Economic Support, and Personalized Banking Services. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is -4.6% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -35% |
| Key risksOBT key risks include [1] increased borrower defaults on its adjustable-rate loans if interest rates rise and [2] potential credit losses from its higher-risk consumer loan portfolio. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
OBT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Record Third Quarter 2025 Results. Orange County Bancorp, Inc. announced record third-quarter results on October 29, 2025. The company reported a substantial increase in net income, which rose by 211.5% to $10.0 million from $3.2 million in the third quarter of 2024. Additionally, net interest income increased by 17.3% to $27.0 million, and the net interest margin grew by 45 basis points to 4.26%. Total loans expanded by 6.6%, and deposits increased by 5.8%, while the book value per share saw a notable increase of 23.6% to $20.21.
2. Increased Cash Dividend. On November 24, 2025, Orange County Bancorp, Inc. declared an increase in its cash dividend by $0.05, setting it at $0.18 per share of common stock. This dividend was scheduled for payment on December 16, 2025, to shareholders of record by December 4, 2025, reflecting the company's robust financial health and commitment to shareholder returns.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OBT Return | -7% | 49% | 18% | 32% | -6% | 6% | 116% |
| Peers Return | -17% | 24% | 18% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 67% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OBT Win Rate | 42% | 83% | 42% | 67% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 62% | 53% | 45% | 52% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OBT Max Drawdown | -25% | 0% | -18% | -36% | -28% | -23% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -5% | -10% | -34% | -20% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GCBC, TMP, AROW, NBTB, TRST.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OBT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -46.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 85.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 224 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 166 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 897 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -37.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5,391 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU
In The Past
Orange County Bancorp's stock fell -46.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/23/2023. A -46.0% loss requires a 85.2% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Would You Still Hold Orange County Bancorp Stock If It Fell 30%? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to OBT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Orange County Bancorp
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 37.91 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.7 |
| Rev LTM | 170 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 42 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 46 |
| CFO LTM | 49 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 51 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 20.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 31.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 34.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 30.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.7 |
| P/S | 3.2 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 12.2 |
| P/CFO | 10.7 |
| Total Yield | 10.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.0% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 13.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 12.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 28.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 24.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 12.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 6.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 16.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -7.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -46.4% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banking | 91 | 81 | 63 | 45 | |
| Wealth Management | 10 | 9 | 10 | 8 | |
| Total | 102 | 90 | 73 | 53 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banking | 27 | 23 | 19 | 9 | |
| Wealth Management | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Total | 29 | 24 | 21 | 11 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banking | 2,477 | 2,279 | 2,133 | 1,657 | 1,221 |
| Wealth Management | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| Total | 2,485 | 2,287 | 2,143 | 1,665 | 1,230 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/30/2025 | 2.9% | 7.0% | 14.3% |
| 7/30/2025 | -1.8% | -7.7% | 4.2% |
| 4/30/2025 | 2.4% | 8.5% | 7.8% |
| 2/5/2025 | -1.1% | -4.5% | -12.0% |
| 10/30/2024 | -7.3% | 7.4% | 4.5% |
| 7/31/2024 | -9.7% | -17.3% | -4.6% |
| 5/1/2024 | 8.2% | 3.9% | 7.2% |
| 2/1/2024 | -8.3% | -12.0% | -10.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 13 |
| # Negative | 9 | 9 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 2.4% | 5.5% | 7.2% |
| Median Negative | -4.3% | -4.5% | -8.6% |
| Max Positive | 8.2% | 9.0% | 14.3% |
| Max Negative | -9.7% | -17.3% | -12.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11102025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8112025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3172025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11132024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8122024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5152024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8112023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5152023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5112022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3302022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |