Arrow Financial (AROW)
Market Price (10/29/2026): $38.05 | Market Cap: $704.8 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
Arrow Financial (AROW)
Market Price (10/29/2026): $38.05Market Cap: $704.8 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 3.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.8%, FCF Yield is 7.1% Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -65% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, and Wealth Management Technology. | Key risksAROW key risks include [1] integration challenges from the recent merger of its two subsidiary banks, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 3.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.8%, FCF Yield is 7.1% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -65% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, and Wealth Management Technology. |
| Key risksAROW key risks include [1] integration challenges from the recent merger of its two subsidiary banks, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Arrow Financial (AROW) stock has lost about 5% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Arrow Financial reported a significant earnings miss for fiscal Q2 2026, alongside a deterioration in asset quality. The company announced its fiscal Q2 2026 results on July 23, 2026, reporting diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.66, which missed the consensus analyst estimate of $0.85 by $0.19. Revenue also fell short, coming in at $44.19 million against estimates of $45.51 million. These results included approximately $1.0 million ($0.05 per share) in merger-related expenses and a $1.6 million ($0.08 per share) specific reserve for an isolated commercial real estate credit. Consequently, nonperforming assets increased from $4.9 million (0.11% of period-end assets) at March 31, 2026, to $8.7 million (0.19% of period-end assets) by June 30, 2026, largely due to a $3.8 million non-performing commercial loan.
2. The stock was impacted by negative technical indicators and bearish analyst sentiment in the latter half of fiscal Q3 2026 and early fiscal Q4 2026. AROW's Momentum Indicator turned negative on September 17, 2026, suggesting a new downward trend with a 69% probability of further decline. Similarly, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AROW also turned negative on September 17, 2026, indicating a potential downward shift with 66% odds of continued lower movement. By October 2, 2026, an AI analysis identified AROW's overall moving average trend as bearish and categorized it as a "Strong Sell candidate" due to multiple negative signals.
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Arrow Financial (AROW) stock has lost about 5% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Arrow Financial reported a significant earnings miss for fiscal Q2 2026, alongside a deterioration in asset quality. The company announced its fiscal Q2 2026 results on July 23, 2026, reporting diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.66, which missed the consensus analyst estimate of $0.85 by $0.19. Revenue also fell short, coming in at $44.19 million against estimates of $45.51 million. These results included approximately $1.0 million ($0.05 per share) in merger-related expenses and a $1.6 million ($0.08 per share) specific reserve for an isolated commercial real estate credit. Consequently, nonperforming assets increased from $4.9 million (0.11% of period-end assets) at March 31, 2026, to $8.7 million (0.19% of period-end assets) by June 30, 2026, largely due to a $3.8 million non-performing commercial loan.
2. The stock was impacted by negative technical indicators and bearish analyst sentiment in the latter half of fiscal Q3 2026 and early fiscal Q4 2026. AROW's Momentum Indicator turned negative on September 17, 2026, suggesting a new downward trend with a 69% probability of further decline. Similarly, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AROW also turned negative on September 17, 2026, indicating a potential downward shift with 66% odds of continued lower movement. By October 2, 2026, an AI analysis identified AROW's overall moving average trend as bearish and categorized it as a "Strong Sell candidate" due to multiple negative signals.
3. Broader macroeconomic headwinds and concerns within the regional banking sector contributed to the negative trend. The last few weeks of fiscal Q3 2026 saw a dramatic spike in bond yields, fueled by persistent inflation (with PCE inflation at 3.01% in 2026), increasing government debt, and actions by the Federal Reserve. This environment generally poses challenges for regional banks by potentially increasing funding costs. Additionally, the broader regional banking sector showed emerging credit quality concerns during fiscal Q3 2026, with some banks reporting increases in non-performing loan ratios across various segments, including commercial real estate, which likely created sector-wide pressure on financial stocks like AROW.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -6.5% change in AROW stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/28/2026 was primarily driven by a -6.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 40.67 | 38.03 | -6.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 171 | 175 | 2.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 29.9% | 29.3% | -2.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.0 | 12.2 | -6.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 16 | 16 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -6.5% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AROW | -6.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.4% | 20.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | 4.7% | 49.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 15.1% change in AROW stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 10.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 33.04 | 38.03 | 15.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 166 | 175 | 5.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 26.5% | 29.3% | 10.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.3 | 12.2 | -1.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 16 | 16 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 15.1% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AROW | 15.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.1% | 18.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | 14.1% | 50.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 39.0% change in AROW stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 43.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 27.36 | 38.03 | 39.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 150 | 175 | 16.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.4% | 29.3% | 43.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.8 | 12.2 | -17.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 17 | 16 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 39.0% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AROW | 39.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.9% | 21.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 5.5% | 51.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 151.5% change in AROW stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/28/2026 was primarily driven by a 83.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10282026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 15.12 | 38.03 | 151.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 144 | 175 | 21.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.0% | 29.3% | 8.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.6 | 12.2 | 83.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 17 | 16 | 3.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 151.5% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/28/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AROW | 151.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.9% | 36.0% |
| Sector (XLF) | 76.6% | 55.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AROW Return | 25% | 2% | -11% | 7% | 14% | 25% | 75% |
| Peers Return | 31% | -4% | -6% | 19% | 7% | 35% | 103% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AROW Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 33% | 50% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 42% | 48% | 52% | 57% | 66% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AROW Max Drawdown | -10% | -17% | -49% | -22% | -17% | -14% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -20% | -37% | -23% | -24% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CBU, NBTB, FISI, TMP, CHMG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/28/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AROW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.2% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 22 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -14.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 63 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -41.9% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 212 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -15.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 28 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 345 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -14.9% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 268 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Arrow Financial's stock fell -11.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 13.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | AROW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -41.9% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 212 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 345 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Arrow Financial's stock fell -11.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 13.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Arrow Financial (AROW)
Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) is a bank holding company that offers a comprehensive suite of commercial and consumer banking and financial products and services. Its core operations revolve around taking deposits and providing various lending solutions to both individuals and businesses.
The company's offerings include a range of deposit products such as checking, savings, and time deposits. On the lending side, Arrow Financial provides commercial loans, commercial real estate loans, consumer installment loans (like auto and personal lines of credit), and residential real estate loans including fixed home equity and lines of credit. Beyond traditional banking, it also offers retirement planning, trust and estate administration, corporate employee benefit plan administration, insurance agency services, and investment advisory services.
Arrow Financial primarily serves individuals and businesses in the northeastern region of New York State. Its operational footprint covers several counties including Warren, Washington, Saratoga, Essex, Clinton, Rensselaer, Albany, and Schenectady, as well as surrounding areas.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Arrow Financial (AROW):
- It's like a highly localized version of M&T Bank, serving specific communities in upstate New York.
- Think of it as a community-focused bank, similar to a smaller Citizens Bank, but concentrating its services on specific counties in northeastern New York.
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- Deposit Products: Provides various types of accounts including checking, savings, and time deposits for individuals and businesses.
- Commercial Loans: Offers term loans, lines of credit, and commercial real estate loans to businesses.
- Consumer Loans: Furnishes installment loans, personal lines of credit, auto loans, and residential real estate loans to individuals.
- Indirect Lending Program: Operates a program where loans are provided through third-party channels.
- Residential Real Estate Loan Origination & Secondary Market Sales: Originates residential real estate loans and sells them into the secondary market.
- Trust and Estate Administration: Delivers services for managing trusts and estates for individuals.
- Employee Benefit Plan Administration: Administers pension, profit-sharing, and other employee benefit plans for corporations.
- Insurance Agency Services: Provides group health care, life, property, and casualty insurance products.
- Investment Advisory Services: Offers investment advice, including to its proprietary mutual funds.
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Arrow Financial (AROW) serves a diversified customer base, primarily consisting of individuals and businesses within its operating region in northeastern New York State. As a bank holding company, it does not have a concentrated list of major corporate customers. Instead, its customer base can be categorized as follows:
- Consumer Banking Customers: Individuals are a major customer group, utilizing a wide array of products and services. These include various deposit accounts (demand, interest-bearing checking, savings, time deposits), consumer installment loans, personal lines of credit, automobile loans, and residential real estate loans (mortgages, fixed home equity loans, and home equity lines of credit).
- Commercial Banking Customers: Businesses and corporations form another significant customer segment. Arrow Financial provides them with commercial loans (term loans, time notes, lines of credit), commercial real estate loans for various purposes (purchases, refinancing, expansions, improvements, construction, and land development), and potentially business deposit accounts.
- Wealth Management and Trust Clients: This category includes individuals seeking retirement planning, trust, and estate administration services. It also encompasses corporations that utilize the company's services for pension, profit-sharing, and employee benefit plan administration. Additionally, investors utilizing its investment advisory services for proprietary mutual funds fall into this segment.
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David S. DeMarco, President and CEO
David S. DeMarco was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Arrow Financial Corporation and Arrow Bank in May 2023. He joined the company in 1987 as a commercial lender and has since held positions of increasing responsibility within the organization. In 2012, he was named President and CEO of Saratoga National Bank, which is now known as Arrow Bank. Mr. DeMarco holds a bachelor's degree in finance from the University of Texas at Austin and is a graduate of the Adirondack Regional Chamber of Commerce's Leadership Program and the Stonier Graduate School of Banking.
Penko K. Ivanov, Senior Executive Vice President, CFO, Treasurer and CAO
Penko K. Ivanov joined Arrow Financial Corporation in 2023 and was appointed Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer, and Chief Accounting Officer, effective February 21, 2023. He brings over 30 years of experience in financial planning and analysis, controllership, financial reporting, and treasury. Prior to joining Arrow, Mr. Ivanov served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Bankwell Financial Group, Inc., and also held CFO positions at Darien Rowayton Bank and for Doral Bank's U.S. Operations. He began his career with Ernst & Young GmbH and has held finance positions at General Electric Company and PepsiCo, Inc., as well as accounting/finance positions at GE Capital and Bridgewater Associates. Mr. Ivanov holds an MBA and bachelor's degrees in accounting and finance from the University of South Florida.
Michael Jacobs, Executive Vice President and CIO
Michael Jacobs serves as the Executive Vice President and Chief Information Officer for Arrow Financial Corporation.
Brooke M. Pancoe, Executive Vice President and CHRO
Brooke M. Pancoe is an Executive Vice President and the Chief Human Resources Officer at Arrow Financial Corporation.
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Key Risks to Arrow Financial (AROW)
- Interest Rate Fluctuations: As a bank holding company, Arrow Financial Corporation's profitability is significantly exposed to changes in interest rates. Fluctuations can impact the company's net interest margin, its ability to originate loans and attract deposits, and the fair value of its financial assets and liabilities. For example, increased interest expenses due to higher deposit rates presented a challenge in 2024.
- Regulatory Compliance and Changes: Arrow Financial operates within a heavily regulated environment at both federal and state levels. The company faces significant risks from evolving banking regulations, particularly those related to capital and liquidity standards, anti-money laundering laws, and the Community Reinvestment Act. Increased scrutiny on mid-sized banks following recent industry events also contributes to heightened regulatory risk and potential compliance costs.
- Credit Risk and Economic Conditions: Given its extensive lending activities across commercial, residential real estate, and consumer segments, Arrow Financial is inherently exposed to credit risk, which is the risk of borrowers defaulting on their loans. While asset quality showed improvements in 2025, a downturn in the U.S. economy or within its concentrated operating region in northeastern New York State could negatively impact loan quality, increase non-performing assets, and affect overall earnings.
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The clear emerging threat to Arrow Financial, a regional, branch-based bank, is the rapid advancement and widespread adoption of digital-first banking models. This phenomenon encompasses:
- The emergence and growth of **digital-only banks and specialized fintech companies** that operate with minimal physical infrastructure, offering highly competitive rates and superior digital user experiences for deposits, loans, and other financial services. These players can attract customers without geographical constraints, directly challenging Arrow Financial's traditional branch network and regional focus.
- The significant **investment by larger national banks into advanced digital banking platforms**, enabling them to deliver sophisticated online and mobile services that can appeal to customers even within Arrow Financial's localized markets. This diminishes the competitive advantage of Arrow's physical presence and community ties.
Collectively, these trends undermine the traditional value proposition of regional, brick-and-mortar banking by providing more convenient, often cheaper, and broadly accessible alternatives, threatening Arrow Financial's customer base, deposit acquisition, and loan origination volumes across its core banking and lending activities.
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For Arrow Financial (AROW), the expected drivers of future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years include:
- Strategic Acquisitions and Geographic Expansion: Arrow Financial is focused on expanding its market presence through strategic acquisitions, such as the recent acquisition of Adirondack Bancorp, Inc., which extends its footprint into new counties in the Adirondack region and Mohawk Valley. This builds on previous moves like the acquisition of the Whitehall Branch from Berkshire Bank. The company also aims to expand into additional areas like Rensselaer and Columbia counties, the Hudson Valley, and potentially western Vermont and Massachusetts. These expansions directly increase the customer base, deposits, and loan opportunities.
- Expansion and Cross-selling of Wealth Management and Insurance Services: The company is diversifying its revenue streams by expanding its insurance business, as demonstrated by the acquisition of A&B Agency, Inc. Furthermore, the acquisition of Adirondack Bancorp, Inc. is expected to enable Arrow to complement existing product offerings with its wealth management and insurance services, thereby increasing non-interest income.
- Growth in Core Lending Activities: With an increased asset base resulting from acquisitions, Arrow Financial is positioned to grow its primary banking revenue through an expanded portfolio of commercial, residential, and consumer loans. The strategic unification and broader market presence provide a larger platform to expand these core lending activities.
- Enhanced Operational Efficiency and Strengthened Market Presence from Bank Unification: The unification of its subsidiary banks into "Arrow Bank" is a strategic move designed to simplify brand identity, strengthen market presence, and achieve operational efficiencies. This streamlining is intended to better position the bank for future growth by optimizing resource allocation and enhancing competitive capabilities, which indirectly supports revenue generation.
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Capital Allocation Decisions for Arrow Financial (AROW)
Share Repurchases
- Arrow Financial expanded its existing stock repurchase program by $5 million in 2023.
- The company repurchased $9.9 million in stock during 2025.
- A new stock repurchase program authorizing up to $5 million of common stock was approved in January 2021, replacing prior authorizations.
Share Issuance
- Arrow Financial issues an annual stock dividend, which it has done for 15 consecutive years as of 2023.
- The company reinstated its dividend reinvestment program (DRIP) in 2023.
- As part of the proposed acquisition of Adirondack Bancorp, Inc., Arrow will file a registration statement to issue Arrow common stock to Adirondack shareholders.
Outbound Investments
- Arrow Financial Corporation announced the strategic acquisition of Adirondack Bancorp, Inc. on February 26, 2026, which is expected to expand its presence into new counties.
- The aggregate implied transaction value for the acquisition of Adirondack Bancorp, Inc. is approximately $89.1 million, based on AROW's stock price as of February 25, 2026.
- Adirondack shareholders will receive 1.8610 shares of Arrow common stock plus $18.72 in cash for each outstanding share as part of the merger consideration.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital Expenditures (CapEx) were reported as $13 million in 2022, $4.37 million in 2023, and $2.27 million in 2024.
- Arrow invested heavily in a remediation plan to address internal control weaknesses in 2023.
- By 2023, the company completed a multi-year renovation project on its downtown Glens Falls, New York headquarters.
Peer Outperformance in Regional Banks
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AROW | Arrow Financial | 7.2% | 12.2x | 44.5% | 105.5% | 38.4% | — |
| SRCE | 1st Source | 7.5% | 11.8x | 47.5% | 112.2% | 105.4% | +67pp |
| EWBC | East West Bancorp | 6.3% | 12.5x | 33.6% | 170.3% | 86.5% | +48pp |
| WTFC | Wintrust Financial | 9.5% | 11.3x | 17.8% | 116.5% | 81.1% | +43pp |
| FULT | Fulton Financial | 8.0% | 11.3x | 34.7% | 110.8% | 76.4% | +38pp |
| ABCB | Ameris Bancorp | 5.2% | 14.6x | 13.3% | 135.7% | 62.5% | +24pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinsurance | 6 | 34.8% | 72.3% | 116.9% | SPNT 169% · RGA 140% · RNR 137% |
| Investment Banking & Brokerage | 13 | -10.3% | 107.9% | 99.8% | IBKR 386% · SNEX 175% · HOOD 158% |
| Diversified Banks | 12 | 29.9% | 162.0% | 88.9% | CM 144% · RY 129% · JPM 125% |
| Life & Health Insurance | 20 | 16.3% | 54.8% | 80.0% | JXN 510% · UNM 287% · MFC 184% |
| Property & Casualty Insurance | 41 | 16.7% | 74.7% | 63.3% | TRV 168% · PGR 163% · ACGL 156% |
| Multi-line Insurance | 9 | 6.9% | 67.4% | 58.9% | GNW 106% · L 99% · AIZ 89% |
| Regional Banks ← | 265 | 30.6% | 101.4% | 54.9% | CBC 247% · FCNCA 187% · NIC 148% |
| Multi-Sector Holdings | 3 | 3.6% | 62.9% | 53.2% | BRK-B 87% · VOYA 53% · JEF 35% |
| Financial Exchanges & Data | 15 | 3.3% | 41.5% | 22.8% | CBOE 161% · VIRT 156% · CME 66% |
| Insurance Brokers | 15 | -1.5% | 9.6% | 17.7% | LIFE 384% · ARX 89% · AJG 67% |
| Asset Management & Custody Banks | 85 | -12.0% | 23.3% | 8.4% | WT 274% · VCTR 251% · AAMI 220% |
| Consumer Finance | 30 | 2.5% | 82.6% | 5.4% | ENVA 455% · FCFS 122% · AXP 94% |
| Diversified Financial Services | 4 | -6.0% | 20.6% | 4.8% | FRHC 166% · EQH 84% |
| Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance | 14 | -53.6% | 28.1% | -1.6% | FNMA 372% · FMCC 318% · ACT 160% |
| Specialized Finance | 3 | 10.3% | 42.3% | -9.6% | CACC -10% · HASI -23% |
| Mortgage REITs | 34 | -19.4% | -2.7% | -33.7% | RITM 35% · DX 21% · AGNC 12% |
| Transaction & Payment Processing Services | 17 | 2.8% | 15.9% | -38.5% | V 98% · MA 89% · CPAY 57% |
| Diversified Capital Markets | 20 | -49.5% | 20.9% | -60.1% | LPLA 58% · TW 40% · RIOT -48% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Arrow Financial Stock Jump Looks Great, But How Secure Is That Gain? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 57.41 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.1 |
| Rev LTM | 257 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 52 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 57 |
| CFO LTM | 59 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 62 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 18.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | - |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 32.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 27.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.8% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $38.03 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/07/1984 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -9.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $37.84 | $36.53 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | 0.5% | 4.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 17.9% | 25.0% |
| Downside Capture | 63.89 | 37.42 |
| Upside Capture | 27.97 | 76.56 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 14.9% | 19.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.65 | 0.53 | 0.58 | 0.41 | 0.45 | 0.73 |
| Up Beta | -3.02 | 0.46 | 0.03 | 0.16 | 0.39 | 0.71 |
| Down Beta | 0.07 | -0.51 | 0.50 | -0.28 | 0.17 | 0.63 |
| Up Capture | 97% | 39% | 49% | 65% | 61% | 72% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 17 | 26 | 64 | 122 | 370 |
| Down Capture | 137% | 119% | 117% | 74% | 52% | 89% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 25 | 36 | 60 | 128 | 376 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AROW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AROW | 45.2% | 25.0% | 1.44 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 6.6% | 14.5% | 0.20 | 48.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.7% | 12.7% | 0.72 | 18.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.8% | 28.3% | 0.05 | -1.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.4% | 20.6% | 1.80 | -27.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.8% | 13.9% | -0.05 | 38.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -29.4% | 43.4% | -0.68 | 3.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AROW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AROW | 6.5% | 30.8% | 0.23 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 8.7% | 18.3% | 0.34 | 53.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.7% | 17.1% | 0.56 | 37.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 18.9% | 0.74 | -0.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.1% | 19.5% | 0.35 | 3.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.6% | 18.9% | -0.08 | 41.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.1% | 51.6% | 0.26 | 15.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AROW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AROW | 7.6% | 32.3% | 0.30 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 13.2% | 22.1% | 0.54 | 64.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 50.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.0% | 16.4% | 0.60 | -2.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 12.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 48.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 62.3% | 66.2% | 1.02 | 15.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 10/29/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/23/2026 | -3.9% | -1.7% | -5.2% |
| 4/30/2026 | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% |
| 1/29/2026 | 2.1% | 10.7% | 3.6% |
| 10/30/2025 | 2.6% | 17.2% | 15.2% |
| 7/24/2025 | 1.2% | 0.4% | 5.4% |
| 5/1/2025 | -0.5% | 4.0% | 6.1% |
| 1/30/2025 | -2.1% | -1.2% | -1.2% |
| 10/31/2024 | -2.7% | 13.9% | 12.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 14 | 14 |
| # Negative | 13 | 8 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 2.1% | 3.8% | 5.8% |
| Median Negative | -1.1% | -1.5% | -4.5% |
| Max Positive | 4.4% | 21.3% | 36.6% |
| Max Negative | -3.9% | -7.6% | -14.7% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/23/2026 | -3.9% | -1.7% | -5.2% |
| 4/30/2026 | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% |
| 1/29/2026 | 2.1% | 10.7% | 3.6% |
| 10/30/2025 | 2.6% | 17.2% | 15.2% |
| 7/24/2025 | 1.2% | 0.4% | 5.4% |
| 5/1/2025 | -0.5% | 4.0% | 6.1% |
| 1/30/2025 | -2.1% | -1.2% | -1.2% |
| 10/31/2024 | -2.7% | 13.9% | 12.4% |
| 7/25/2024 | 4.4% | 1.6% | -6.6% |
| 4/30/2024 | -2.3% | 3.6% | 12.1% |
| 2/1/2024 | -0.9% | -5.2% | -3.8% |
| 10/24/2023 | 2.1% | 21.3% | 36.6% |
| 8/8/2023 | -1.3% | -7.6% | -14.7% |
| 1/30/2023 | -0.4% | -1.4% | -7.2% |
| 10/27/2022 | 3.6% | 9.4% | 14.6% |
| 7/27/2022 | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.9% |
| 4/26/2022 | -0.9% | -0.5% | 3.2% |
| 1/27/2022 | -1.2% | -2.0% | -2.3% |
| 10/26/2021 | -0.7% | 1.1% | 4.3% |
| 7/27/2021 | -0.7% | -1.2% | -1.8% |
| 4/27/2021 | 0.6% | 5.2% | 2.4% |
| 1/28/2021 | -1.1% | 2.9% | 8.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 14 | 14 |
| # Negative | 13 | 8 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 2.1% | 3.8% | 5.8% |
| Median Negative | -1.1% | -1.5% | -4.5% |
| Max Positive | 4.4% | 21.3% | 36.6% |
| Max Negative | -3.9% | -7.6% | -14.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/06/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/11/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 07/18/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/06/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/11/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 07/18/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/11/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/10/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/28/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/05/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/29/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 10/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Cash Dividend Per Share | Reported | 0.3 | ||||||
| Q1 2027 Anticipated Cost Savings Realized | Reported | 0.95 | ||||||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/23/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 EPS Accretion | Reported | |||||||
| 2026 Assets Added | Reported | 1.00 Bil | 5.3% | Raised | Guidance: 950.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Loan Volume | Reported | |||||||
| 2026 Assets Added | Reported | 950.00 Mil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 8/18/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Behan, Mark | Direct | Sell | 6222026 | 38.59 | 4,110 | 158,605 | 344,570 | Form | |
| 2 | Demarco, David S | President & CEO | 401(k) | Buy | 12302025 | 31.78 | 3,035 | 96,452 | 96,452 | Form |
| 3 | White, Daniel James | Direct | Buy | 11122025 | 30.14 | 1,644 | 49,550 | 207,665 | Form | |
| 4 | Ivanov, Penko Krassimir | SEVP, Treasurer and CFO | Direct | Buy | 11052025 | 29.82 | 1,620 | 48,308 | 787,062 | Form |
| 5 | Ivanov, Penko Krassimir | SEVP, Treasurer and CFO | Direct | Buy | 9122025 | 29.10 | 5,000 | 145,499 | 720,045 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Behan, Mark | Direct | Sell | 6222026 | 38.59 | 4,110 | 158,605 | 344,570 | Form | |
| 2 | Demarco, David S | President & CEO | 401(k) | Buy | 12302025 | 31.78 | 3,035 | 96,452 | 96,452 | Form |
| 3 | White, Daniel James | Direct | Buy | 11122025 | 30.14 | 1,644 | 49,550 | 207,665 | Form | |
| 4 | Ivanov, Penko Krassimir | SEVP, Treasurer and CFO | Direct | Buy | 11052025 | 29.82 | 1,620 | 48,308 | 787,062 | Form |
| 5 | Ivanov, Penko Krassimir | SEVP, Treasurer and CFO | Direct | Buy | 9122025 | 29.10 | 5,000 | 145,499 | 720,045 | Form |
| 6 | Ivanov, Penko Krassimir | SEVP, Treasurer and CFO | Direct | Buy | 8282025 | 29.46 | 10,922 | 321,728 | 580,742 | Form |
| 7 | Ivanov, Penko Krassimir | SEVP, Treasurer and CFO | Direct | Buy | 8282025 | 29.46 | 1,078 | 31,758 | 258,865 | Form |
| 8 | Ivanov, Penko Krassimir | SEVP, Treasurer and CFO | Direct | Buy | 8082025 | 26.50 | 1,425 | 37,762 | 204,288 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Regional Banks Resources |
| Bank Director |
| Independent Banker |
| S&P Global Market Intelligence |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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