Norfolk Southern (NSC)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $294.3 | Market Cap: $66.0 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Rail Transportation
Norfolk Southern (NSC)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $294.3Market Cap: $66.0 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Rail Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 39% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.8%, Dist 3Y High is -1.8% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 4.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.1 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -8.3%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -44% | Key risksNSC key risks include [1] severe financial and reputational liabilities from operational incidents, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Sustainable Infrastructure, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 39% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 4.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.1 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Sustainable Infrastructure, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.8%, Dist 3Y High is -1.8% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -8.3%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -44% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3% |
| Key risksNSC key risks include [1] severe financial and reputational liabilities from operational incidents, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NSC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The following are key points highlighting factors that have influenced Norfolk Southern's stock performance based on recent available information:
1. Norfolk Southern reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 financial results. For the fourth quarter of 2024, the company announced diluted earnings per share of $3.23, an increase of 39% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $3.04, exceeding the consensus estimate of $3.01. This positive earnings surprise contributed to a 2.6% rise in shares during premarket trading.
2. The company demonstrated significant improvements in its operating ratio. Norfolk Southern's operating ratio for the fourth quarter of 2024 was 62.6%, an improvement from 73.7% in the same quarter of 2023. The adjusted operating ratio for Q4 2024 improved to 64.9% compared to 68.8% in Q4 2023, reflecting efficiency gains. For the full year 2024, the operating ratio improved by 1,010 basis points to 66.4% from 76.5% in 2023.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NSC Return | 25% | 27% | -16% | -2% | 2% | 30% | 74% |
| Peers Return | 26% | 17% | -7% | 12% | -9% | 7% | 50% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NSC Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 33% | 42% | 50% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 71% | 50% | 38% | 54% | 44% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NSC Max Drawdown | -38% | -2% | -30% | -24% | -10% | -12% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -7% | -18% | -9% | -11% | -10% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CSX, UNP, CNI, CP. See NSC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/16/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NSC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 703 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -44.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 80.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 158 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -25.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 95 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 173.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 780 days | 1480 days |
Compare to UNP, CSX, CP, CNI, NSC
In The Past
Norfolk Southern's stock fell -38.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -38.0% loss requires a 61.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NSC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 04302023 | NSC | Norfolk Southern | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -8.0% | 22.0% | -8.0% |
| 10312022 | NSC | Norfolk Southern | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.5% | -14.4% | -17.2% |
| 04302022 | NSC | Norfolk Southern | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -10.3% | -19.6% | -21.1% |
| 03312020 | NSC | Norfolk Southern | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 49.4% | 87.4% | -4.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 04302023 | NSC | Norfolk Southern | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -8.0% | 22.0% | -8.0% |
| 10312022 | NSC | Norfolk Southern | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.5% | -14.4% | -17.2% |
| 04302022 | NSC | Norfolk Southern | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -10.3% | -19.6% | -21.1% |
| 03312020 | NSC | Norfolk Southern | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 49.4% | 87.4% | -4.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Norfolk Southern
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 96.92 |
| Mkt Cap | 66.8 |
| Rev LTM | 15,029 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5,556 |
| FCF LTM | 2,393 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,524 |
| CFO LTM | 5,489 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,086 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 37.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 38.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 36.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 36.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 66.8 |
| P/S | 4.7 |
| P/EBIT | 13.5 |
| P/E | 19.9 |
| P/CFO | 14.3 |
| Total Yield | 7.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 8.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 3.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 20.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -5.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -9.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -52.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intermodal | 3,090 | 3,681 | 3,163 | 2,654 | 2,824 |
| Agriculture, forest and consumer products | 2,530 | 2,493 | 2,251 | 2,116 | 2,256 |
| Chemicals | 2,054 | 2,148 | 1,951 | 1,809 | 2,092 |
| Coal | 1,713 | 1,733 | 1,310 | 1,047 | 1,669 |
| Metals and construction | 1,634 | 1,652 | 1,562 | 1,333 | 1,461 |
| Automotive | 1,135 | 1,038 | 905 | 830 | 994 |
| Total | 12,156 | 12,745 | 11,142 | 9,789 | 11,296 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/23/2025 | -1.2% | -0.8% | 1.4% |
| 7/29/2025 | -3.0% | -2.4% | -2.9% |
| 4/23/2025 | 0.9% | 1.5% | 9.5% |
| 1/29/2025 | 1.8% | 0.2% | -3.5% |
| 10/22/2024 | 4.9% | 2.2% | 5.2% |
| 7/25/2024 | 10.9% | 10.6% | 8.6% |
| 4/9/2024 | 1.3% | -1.9% | -6.6% |
| 1/26/2024 | -1.5% | 7.9% | 7.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 13 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 3.0% | 2.1% | 7.2% |
| Median Negative | -1.8% | -1.7% | -6.6% |
| Max Positive | 10.9% | 10.6% | 17.0% |
| Max Negative | -5.3% | -3.9% | -12.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7292025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4232025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2102025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10222024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7262024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4242024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2052024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10252023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2032023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10262022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4272022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2042022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
