Tearsheet

Norfolk Southern (NSC)


Market Price (12/17/2025): $294.3 | Market Cap: $66.0 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Rail Transportation

Norfolk Southern (NSC)


Market Price (12/17/2025): $294.3
Market Cap: $66.0 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Rail Transportation

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 39%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.8%, Dist 3Y High is -1.8%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 4.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.1 Bil
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -8.3%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -44%
Key risks
NSC key risks include [1] severe financial and reputational liabilities from operational incidents, Show more.
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 23%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Sustainable Infrastructure, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Show more.
  
0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 39%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 4.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.1 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 23%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Sustainable Infrastructure, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Show more.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.8%, Dist 3Y High is -1.8%
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -8.3%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -44%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3%
7 Key risks
NSC key risks include [1] severe financial and reputational liabilities from operational incidents, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NSC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The following are key points highlighting factors that have influenced Norfolk Southern's stock performance based on recent available information: 1. Norfolk Southern reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 financial results. For the fourth quarter of 2024, the company announced diluted earnings per share of $3.23, an increase of 39% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $3.04, exceeding the consensus estimate of $3.01. This positive earnings surprise contributed to a 2.6% rise in shares during premarket trading.

2. The company demonstrated significant improvements in its operating ratio. Norfolk Southern's operating ratio for the fourth quarter of 2024 was 62.6%, an improvement from 73.7% in the same quarter of 2023. The adjusted operating ratio for Q4 2024 improved to 64.9% compared to 68.8% in Q4 2023, reflecting efficiency gains. For the full year 2024, the operating ratio improved by 1,010 basis points to 66.4% from 76.5% in 2023.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NSC Return25%27%-16%-2%2%30%74%
Peers Return26%17%-7%12%-9%7%50%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%110%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NSC Win Rate67%50%33%42%50%67% 
Peers Win Rate71%50%38%54%44%54% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NSC Max Drawdown-38%-2%-30%-24%-10%-12% 
Peers Max Drawdown-31%-7%-18%-9%-11%-10% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CSX, UNP, CNI, CP. See NSC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/16/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNSCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-38.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven61.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven703 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-44.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven80.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven158 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-25.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven33.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven95 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-63.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven173.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven780 days1480 days

Compare to UNP, CSX, CP, CNI, NSC


In The Past

Norfolk Southern's stock fell -38.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -38.0% loss requires a 61.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Norfolk Southern (NSC)

Better Bets than Norfolk Southern (NSC)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NSC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%
NSC_4302023_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper04302023NSCNorfolk SouthernMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-8.0%22.0%-8.0%
NSC_10312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312022NSCNorfolk SouthernMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-7.5%-14.4%-17.2%
NSC_4302022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper04302022NSCNorfolk SouthernMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-10.3%-19.6%-21.1%
NSC_3312020_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy03312020NSCNorfolk SouthernDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
49.4%87.4%-4.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%
NSC_4302023_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper04302023NSCNorfolk SouthernMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-8.0%22.0%-8.0%
NSC_10312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312022NSCNorfolk SouthernMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-7.5%-14.4%-17.2%
NSC_4302022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper04302022NSCNorfolk SouthernMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-10.3%-19.6%-21.1%
NSC_3312020_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy03312020NSCNorfolk SouthernDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
49.4%87.4%-4.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Norfolk Southern

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NSCCSXUNPCNICPMedian
NameNorfolk .CSX Union Pa.Canadian.Canadian. 
Mkt Price294.0036.80235.8896.9273.3596.92
Mkt Cap66.068.6139.760.366.866.8
Rev LTM12,23014,12324,54617,19815,02915,029
Op Inc LTM4,7554,8289,9706,4825,5565,556
FCF LTM2,0991,5526,0133,4442,3932,393
FCF 3Y Avg1,4932,5245,4343,5582,2222,524
CFO LTM4,2494,6159,7276,8175,4895,489
CFO 3Y Avg3,7765,0869,0276,9194,9705,086

Growth & Margins

NSCCSXUNPCNICPMedian
NameNorfolk .CSX Union Pa.Canadian.Canadian. 
Rev Chg LTM0.5%-3.8%1.1%0.2%4.0%0.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.3%-1.0%0.2%1.8%22.2%0.2%
Rev Chg Q1.7%-0.9%2.5%1.3%3.2%1.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.4%-0.2%0.6%0.3%0.8%0.4%
Op Mgn LTM38.9%34.2%40.6%37.7%37.0%37.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg38.6%36.5%39.3%38.4%35.7%38.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-3.2%-0.7%0.3%0.4%0.6%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM34.7%32.7%39.6%39.6%36.5%36.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg30.9%35.0%37.1%40.5%36.9%36.9%
FCF/Rev LTM17.2%11.0%24.5%20.0%15.9%17.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg12.2%17.3%22.3%20.8%16.6%17.3%

Valuation

NSCCSXUNPCNICPMedian
NameNorfolk .CSX Union Pa.Canadian.Canadian. 
Mkt Cap66.068.6139.760.366.866.8
P/S5.54.75.73.44.54.7
P/EBIT14.614.313.58.410.813.5
P/E22.822.819.912.715.919.9
P/CFO15.914.314.48.612.414.3
Total Yield4.4%5.5%7.3%11.6%7.4%7.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.1%2.3%3.7%1.1%1.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.6%3.9%3.9%5.3%3.1%3.9%
D/E0.30.30.20.40.40.3
Net D/E0.20.30.20.40.30.3

Returns

NSCCSXUNPCNICPMedian
NameNorfolk .CSX Union Pa.Canadian.Canadian. 
1M Rtn3.5%5.8%6.4%1.5%3.7%3.7%
3M Rtn6.2%13.8%9.8%2.0%-3.4%6.2%
6M Rtn18.5%15.5%8.2%-3.8%-8.1%8.2%
12M Rtn23.7%13.5%3.7%-3.3%-0.3%3.7%
3Y Rtn25.7%21.5%20.4%-14.8%-0.3%20.4%
1M Excs Rtn2.5%4.9%5.4%0.5%2.8%2.8%
3M Excs Rtn3.2%9.7%6.2%0.0%-5.4%3.2%
6M Excs Rtn4.9%1.8%-5.4%-17.4%-21.7%-5.4%
12M Excs Rtn8.6%-1.4%-9.0%-17.4%-13.3%-9.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-43.8%-50.5%-52.4%-89.7%-77.7%-52.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Intermodal3,0903,6813,1632,6542,824
Agriculture, forest and consumer products2,5302,4932,2512,1162,256
Chemicals2,0542,1481,9511,8092,092
Coal1,7131,7331,3101,0471,669
Metals and construction1,6341,6521,5621,3331,461
Automotive1,1351,038905830994
Total12,15612,74511,1429,78911,296


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,406,961
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-12.2%
Average Daily Volume1,514,211
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.23
Basic Shares Quantity224,400,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.9%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/23/2025-1.2%-0.8%1.4%
7/29/2025-3.0%-2.4%-2.9%
4/23/20250.9%1.5%9.5%
1/29/20251.8%0.2%-3.5%
10/22/20244.9%2.2%5.2%
7/25/202410.9%10.6%8.6%
4/9/20241.3%-1.9%-6.6%
1/26/2024-1.5%7.9%7.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121413
# Negative121011
Median Positive3.0%2.1%7.2%
Median Negative-1.8%-1.7%-6.6%
Max Positive10.9%10.6%17.0%
Max Negative-5.3%-3.9%-12.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251023202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025729202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025423202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024210202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241022202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024726202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024424202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023205202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231025202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023426202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022203202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221026202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022727202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022427202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021204202210-K 12/31/2021