FiscalNote (NOTE)
Market Price (5/2/2026): $0 | Market Cap: $0Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Tobacco
FiscalNote (NOTE)
Market Price (5/2/2026): $0Market Cap: $0Sector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Tobacco
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -95% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Government & Regulatory Technology. Themes include Policy Intelligence Platforms, Regulatory Monitoring & Compliance, and Government Relations Software. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -141%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -177% | Penny stockMkt Price is 0.2 Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -37 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -39% Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 3821% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -21%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -25% Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -20% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2003% High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 118% Key risksNOTE key risks include [1] its persistent unprofitability and challenge in generating sustainable free cash flow, Show more. |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -95% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Government & Regulatory Technology. Themes include Policy Intelligence Platforms, Regulatory Monitoring & Compliance, and Government Relations Software. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -141%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -177% |
| Penny stockMkt Price is 0.2 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -37 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -39% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 3821% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -21%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -25% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -20% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2003% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 118% |
| Key risksNOTE key risks include [1] its persistent unprofitability and challenge in generating sustainable free cash flow, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NOTE | -83.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 39.6% |
| Sector (XLP) | 1.4% | -8.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NOTE | -95.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 39.6% |
| Sector (XLP) | 11.9% | -3.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NOTE | -97.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 33.2% |
| Sector (XLP) | 5.7% | 2.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NOTE | -99.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 24.0% |
| Sector (XLP) | 17.9% | 2.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NOTE Return | -0% | -36% | -82% | -6% | -89% | -86% | -100% |
| Peers Return | 48% | -20% | 34% | 13% | -11% | -16% | 33% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 5% | 92% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NOTE Win Rate | 67% | 33% | 25% | 50% | 17% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 37% | 57% | 58% | 52% | 35% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NOTE Max Drawdown | -3% | -53% | -88% | -33% | -89% | -87% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -11% | -36% | -4% | -10% | -24% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: SPGI, MCO, VRSK, IT, MSCI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/1/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NOTE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -33.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.6% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 183 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -61.3% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 158.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 100 days | 31 days |
In The Past
FiscalNote's stock fell -33.2% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 49.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | NOTE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -33.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.6% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 183 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -61.3% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 158.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 100 days | 31 days |
In The Past
FiscalNote's stock fell -33.2% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 49.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About FiscalNote (NOTE)
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlHere are a few brief analogies for FiscalNote:
- Bloomberg for legal and public policy data and insights.
- The AI-driven LexisNexis for public policy and government affairs.
- Salesforce for public policy and advocacy management.
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- Public Policy and Issues Management Products: A suite of products delivering critical legal data and insights to help organizations monitor, understand, and navigate policy and regulatory environments.
- Workflow Management Tools: Software solutions designed to streamline operational processes for policy, advocacy, and stakeholder engagement.
- Advocacy Campaign Management Tools: Platforms that enable organizations to plan, execute, and track their advocacy campaigns effectively.
- Constituent Relationship Management Tools: Tools used to manage and foster relationships with constituents, stakeholders, and other key external contacts.
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Major Customers of FiscalNote (NOTE)
FiscalNote primarily sells its technology and data solutions to other companies and organizations. Based on the provided background information, the company serves a diverse customer base, described by the following categories:
- Businesses comprising the Fortune 100 companies
- Government agencies
- Law firms
- Professional services organizations
- Trade groups
- Non-profits
The provided background description details categories of customers rather than listing specific names of individual customer companies.
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- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
- Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
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Josh Resnik, CEO & President
Josh Resnik serves as FiscalNote's Chief Executive Officer & President, bringing over twenty-five years of experience as an executive, attorney, and business leader in both startup and established corporate environments. Prior to joining FiscalNote, he was a senior executive and member of the Board of Directors of Spree Commerce, serving as COO/General Counsel and helping lead the company to a successful acquisition by First Data Corporation (now Fiserv). Before Spree Commerce, he led the Digital division of Gannett and was a senior in-house attorney at AOL. Earlier in his career, he practiced law in the TMT sector in corporate transactions and regulatory matters and has advised numerous tech startups and a venture capital firm.
Jon Slabaugh, Chief Financial Officer & Chief Investment Officer
Jon Slabaugh is the Chief Financial Officer and Chief Investment Officer at FiscalNote, with three decades of experience as an investor, operating executive, and board member at high-growth, business intelligence, data, and SaaS workflow companies. Prior to FiscalNote, Jon was the Managing Director of UCG, a private holding company that encompassed 10 leading business-to-business information, data, and workflow SaaS companies, where he managed mergers, acquisitions, divestitures, debt and equity financings, completing and integrating over 30 strategic acquisitions. Earlier in his career, he co-founded and was a Managing Director of MCG Capital, an investment company backed by Goldman Sachs, Heller Financial, Vestar Capital Partners, and Soros Private Equity Partners, which became a publicly-traded Business Development Company during his tenure.
Can Babaoglu, Chief Product Officer
Can Babaoglu is the Chief Product Officer at FiscalNote, bringing almost two decades of product development, product management, and product-led growth experience. Before joining FiscalNote, he was Vice President for Product at Casetext, which was acquired by Thomson Reuters for $650 million in 2023. He was also a co-founder at both Smartup Network and Sprongo, both of which had minor exits.
Todd Aman, Chief Legal and Administrative Officer
Frank Musso, Chief Revenue Officer
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to FiscalNote's business are primarily centered around its financial health, intense market competition, and reliance on public sector revenue.
- Profitability Challenges and Financial Health: FiscalNote faces significant challenges in achieving sustainable profitability, evidenced by persistent negative operating margins and a negative return on invested capital (ROIC). The company's financial health is further undermined by a high debt-to-equity ratio and a low Altman Z-Score, indicating potential financial distress and a risk of requiring dilutive financing to maintain operations.
- Competitive Intensity: FiscalNote operates in a highly competitive landscape with dominant incumbents like Thomson Reuters and RELX/LexisNexis, as well as well-funded AI startups. These competitors possess greater financial resources for product development and customer acquisition, which could exert pressure on FiscalNote's pricing, slow customer acquisition, and ultimately diminish its market share. Furthermore, there is a risk of AI commoditization and high customer churn on legacy platforms, which could limit pricing power and long-term scalability.
- Revenue Concentration and Macro/Budgetary Risks: A substantial portion of FiscalNote's revenue is derived from public sector contracts, making the company vulnerable to government shutdowns, delays, or budget constraints at federal, state, and local levels. Such events could significantly impact revenue growth and contract renewal rates, exposing FiscalNote to broader macroeconomic and budgetary shocks.
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The rapid advancement and increasing accessibility of highly capable large language models (LLMs) and generative artificial intelligence pose an emerging threat. As these AI technologies become more powerful, versatile, and either open-source or available through commercial APIs at scale, they could lower the barrier to entry for new competitors. This trend could enable existing competitors, including larger technology firms or traditional legal information providers, to more easily replicate or develop alternative solutions for AI-driven legal data analysis, policy tracking, and insight generation—services central to FiscalNote's offerings. Furthermore, customers might leverage these advanced AI tools to internalize certain analytical functions, potentially eroding FiscalNote's unique value proposition and competitive differentiation.
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FiscalNote (symbol: NOTE) operates in several significant addressable markets related to legal and regulatory data, public policy, and AI-driven insights.
The company itself estimates its total addressable market (TAM) in the RegTech category, encompassing global policy and regulatory intelligence, to be approximately $40 billion globally.
More broadly, the global market for legal and regulatory information solutions was estimated at approximately $37 billion in 2020.
For its core offerings in regulatory technology, the global RegTech market was valued at USD 17.02 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 70.64 billion by 2030, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 23.1% from 2024 to 2030. North America held the largest share of this market in 2023.
In the broader legal technology sector, the global market size was estimated at USD 29.81 billion in 2025 and is predicted to grow to approximately USD 67.53 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 9.51% from 2025 to 2034. North America led the legal technology market with a 54% revenue share in 2025. Another estimate places the global legal tech market at USD 26.70 billion in 2023, expected to reach USD 55.00 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 12.80%. The legal technology market is also projected to grow from USD 34.15 billion in 2025 to USD 71.95 billion by 2031, at a 13.22% CAGR.
Given FiscalNote's use of artificial intelligence and machine learning, the global legal AI market was valued at USD 1.45 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 3.90 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 17.3% from 2025 to 2030. North America dominated this market with over a 46% revenue share in 2024. The global legal AI software market specifically is valued at USD 5.21 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 40.94 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 29.40% during that period.
For its public policy and advocacy services, the Global Public Affairs and Advocacy Software Market was valued at USD 2.7 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 11.2% through 2029. Another source estimates this market at USD 1.5 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 3.8 billion by 2035 at a CAGR of 10.0%. North America is expected to maintain a commanding position in this market, holding a 41.0% market share by 2035.
In serving government agencies, the global AI in government and public services market was valued at USD 17.1 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 91.3 billion in 2034, at a CAGR of 18.6%. North America is identified as the largest market in this sector.
With its recent expansion, the political prediction market is also a relevant addressable market. The prediction market industry is on pace for more than $100 billion in annualized run rate globally, with political prediction markets accounting for around $7.2 billion in volume in 2025.
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FiscalNote (NOTE) anticipates several key drivers of revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, primarily centered around its AI-driven product strategy and operational enhancements:
- Product-led Growth with the AI-Driven PolicyNote Platform: FiscalNote is heavily investing in a product-led growth strategy, with its AI-powered PolicyNote platform, launched in January 2025, being a central component. The company expects this platform to drive future growth by enhancing user engagement and improving overall Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR). The ongoing migration of legacy customers to PolicyNote is a key initiative to consolidate its offerings and leverage advanced AI features like summaries, chat-based search, and bill Q&A functionality.
- Enhanced Customer Retention and Net Revenue Retention (NRR): A significant focus for FiscalNote is on improving its gross and net revenue retention rates. The company expects that the continuous innovation and integration of AI features within the PolicyNote platform will lead to stronger customer engagement and, consequently, better retention metrics. This improvement is crucial for sustainable subscription revenue growth.
- Strategic Portfolio Optimization and Operational Efficiency: FiscalNote has undertaken strategic divestitures of non-core assets to streamline its operations, reduce debt, and bolster its financial position. While these divestitures have impacted past revenue figures, they are intended to allow the company to increase investment in its core policy and global intelligence offerings. This operational streamlining is expected to create a more efficient and focused business, setting the stage for accelerated growth in its core markets.
- Expansion in Corporate and Federal Markets, and New Licensing Opportunities: The company aims to drive revenue growth through increased sales in its corporate segment, where it has already observed improved win rates and rising average contract values. Concurrently, FiscalNote is focused on restoring demand and engagement within the federal sector. Additionally, FiscalNote is exploring new avenues for growth through data licensing and co-selling opportunities for its AI Agents and Copilots with new and existing partners.
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Capital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years)
Share Issuance
- FiscalNote went public in March 2021 through a SPAC merger, which generated approximately $275 million in gross proceeds.
- A 1-for-12 reverse stock split became effective on August 29, 2025, which reduced the number of outstanding shares.
- As of November 2025, up to 2,349,395 shares of Class A common stock are issuable under a convertible note with an approximate principal outstanding of $20.4 million.
Inbound Investments
- The SPAC merger in March 2021 included a $100 million private investment in public equity (PIPE) from institutional investors, anchored by Maso Capital.
Outbound Investments
- Between 2021 and 2023, FiscalNote acquired multiple companies including Oxford Analytica, FactSquared, Fireside21, TimeBase, Curate, Predata, Forge.AI, FrontierView, Aicel Tech, Board.org, DT-Global Business Consulting, and Dragonfly.
- In March 2024, FiscalNote divested Board.org, adding approximately $15 million in cash to its balance sheet.
- In 2025, FiscalNote divested Oxford Analytica and Dragonfly to Dow Jones for $40 million, and TimeBase to Thomson Reuters for $6.5 million, as part of a strategy to streamline operations and reduce debt.
Capital Expenditures
- FiscalNote made investments in new, high-growth lines of business such as ESG and geopolitical information in 2021.
- The company focused investments on new products and services for the State, Local, & Education (SLED) public sector market in 2021.
- Ongoing investments are directed towards its core policy offering, including the launch and enhancement of the new AI-focused PolicyNote platform in 2025, with an aim to control annual capital expenditures to accelerate free cash flow.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| FiscalNote Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| With FiscalNote Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to NOTE.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04102026 | ELF | e.l.f. Beauty | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.8% | -1.8% | -6.2% |
| 04102026 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.3% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| 04022026 | IPAR | Interparfums | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.7% | 0.7% | -0.3% |
| 04022026 | COKE | Coca-Cola Consolidated | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 5.5% | 5.5% | -5.2% |
| 03272026 | MZTI | Marzetti | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.0% | -5.0% | -8.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 303.59 |
| Mkt Cap | 33.8 |
| Rev LTM | 4,868 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,580 |
| FCF LTM | 1,322 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,273 |
| CFO LTM | 1,488 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,383 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 10.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 16.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 42.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 40.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 37.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 37.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 35.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 33.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 33.8 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| P/Op Inc | 18.8 |
| P/EBIT | 18.1 |
| P/E | 26.7 |
| P/CFO | 19.9 |
| Total Yield | 4.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -17.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -14.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -26.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 10.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -10.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -22.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -16.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -56.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -65.5% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $0.20 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/07/2020 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -98.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $0.63 | $3.04 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -68.5% | -93.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 181.6% | 118.9% |
| Downside Capture | 7.15 | 4.01 |
| Upside Capture | 178.53 | 102.63 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 39.2% | 32.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.33 | 3.72 | 4.77 | 4.00 | 3.15 | 1.72 |
| Up Beta | -0.37 | 0.19 | 0.44 | 1.79 | 0.62 | 0.73 |
| Down Beta | -25.68 | 8.65 | 9.63 | 6.18 | 4.87 | 1.42 |
| Up Capture | 100% | -19% | 197% | 55% | 107% | 282% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 18 | 27 | 47 | 106 | 337 |
| Down Capture | 1519% | 605% | 471% | 307% | 219% | 113% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 24 | 35 | 73 | 140 | 389 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NOTE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOTE | -96.9% | 118.3% | -2.27 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 5.7% | 12.6% | 0.17 | 1.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 30.6% | 12.5% | 1.88 | 33.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 39.5% | 27.2% | 1.20 | 21.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 51.5% | 17.9% | 2.20 | 4.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.1% | 13.5% | 0.67 | 15.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -18.2% | 42.1% | -0.36 | 28.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NOTE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOTE | -71.4% | 103.4% | -0.73 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 6.9% | 13.2% | 0.30 | 2.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 18.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.5% | 17.9% | 0.94 | 10.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.3% | 19.1% | 0.61 | 5.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.5% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 9.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.4% | 56.1% | 0.35 | 9.8% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NOTE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOTE | -46.5% | 99.8% | -0.70 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.8% | 14.7% | 0.40 | 2.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 18.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.6% | 15.9% | 0.71 | 10.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.7% | 17.7% | 0.46 | 5.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 9.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 9.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/19/2026 | -14.8% | -76.2% | -70.5% |
| 8/7/2025 | -9.2% | -14.6% | -41.2% |
| 3/13/2025 | -4.4% | 2.3% | -30.6% |
| 11/12/2024 | -12.5% | -11.2% | 2.5% |
| 8/8/2024 | -4.4% | -10.2% | -13.1% |
| 5/9/2024 | 5.7% | 21.3% | -6.6% |
| 11/14/2023 | -32.2% | -21.2% | -10.6% |
| 8/9/2023 | -22.6% | -21.7% | -43.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| # Negative | 9 | 8 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 13.5% | 13.1% | 6.0% |
| Median Negative | -10.2% | -14.8% | -19.1% |
| Max Positive | 23.6% | 31.1% | 65.8% |
| Max Negative | -32.2% | -76.2% | -70.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 03/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/15/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 04/01/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/14/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/15/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/14/2022 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2021 | 01/10/2022 | S-4/A |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/19/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 20.00 Mil | 20.50 Mil | 21.00 Mil | -8.9% | Lower New | Guidance: 22.50 Mil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 1.00 Mil | -50.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 2.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |||
| 2026 Total Revenues | 80.00 Mil | 81.50 Mil | 83.00 Mil | -16.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 97.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 14.00 Mil | 15.00 Mil | 16.00 Mil | 36.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 11.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Prior: Q2 2025 Earnings Reported 8/7/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2025 Revenue | 22.00 Mil | 22.50 Mil | 23.00 Mil | ||||
| Q3 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 2.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2025 Revenue | 94.00 Mil | 97.00 Mil | 100.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 97.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 10.00 Mil | 11.00 Mil | 12.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 11.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hwang, Tim | See Footnote | Sell | 2042026 | 1.20 | 4,090 | 4,901 | 234,147 | Form | |
| 2 | Hwang, Tim | See Footnote | Sell | 1062026 | 1.61 | 1,716 | 2,761 | 320,938 | Form | |
| 3 | Hwang, Tim | See Footnote | Sell | 12042025 | 1.91 | 5,590 | 10,696 | 384,986 | Form | |
| 4 | Hwang, Tim | See Footnote | Sell | 11102025 | 2.59 | 7,695 | 19,961 | 536,426 | Form | |
| 5 | Hwang, Tim | See Footnote | Sell | 10032025 | 4.80 | 4,766 | 22,861 | 1,028,823 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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